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Nov-23-13 | | RookFile: I don't Carlsen knows what he's doing tomorrow. Why not? He's 22 and has his whole life in front of him. |
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Nov-23-13 | | shach matov: <Stockfish 2 beats Stockfish 4 at pawn odds (1 CPU). This is 200 points difference> Even if this was true (we don't have any evidence or a considerable sample of games to make any definite conclusions), the problem is that comp vs comp is not the same as comp vs human. A 2700 human maybe be as strong as a 2700 comp, but when it comes to Houdini 3300+ rated engines, a 2900 rated human maybe much weaker than the rating difference of 400 points may suggest; we simply don't know how strong Houdini really is compared to humans. In practical terms, I suspect it maybe close to 3500 rather than 3300. Even if Houdini is just 3300 rated, the 400 rating difference is monstrous. A 2900 human would clearly need at least a piece and couple of pawn to have 50% chance of winning a game. One pawn odds is clearly not enough |
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Nov-23-13 | | rogge: <Petrosianic: My only complaint against Carlsen as champion is that I don't think he cares about the title that much, and would be okay if it were abolished entirely, or replaced with some meaningless Grand Prix. He certainly can't be counted on to go to bat for any traditional formats.> I think time will prove you wrong. |
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Nov-23-13 | | badest: <Petrosianic: My only complaint against Carlsen as champion is that I don't think he cares about the title that much, and would be okay if it were abolished entirely, or replaced with some meaningless Grand Prix. He certainly can't be counted on to go to bat for any traditional formats.> You never know. Maybe the crown will change him ;) |
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Nov-23-13 | | rogge: Well, you know, if you decide you don't like a player... |
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Nov-23-13
 | | alexmagnus: <shach> So Rybka (around 3150 back then) losing to 2300 0:4 at knight odds was just a fluke to you? See the article linked by <SChesshevsky>. |
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Nov-23-13 | | morfishine: What was evident is the short format negated fatigue becoming a factor over the long haul. However, Anand's calculations became less certain the longer an individual game became. So, Anand suffered from a "tactical fatigue", so to speak, while Carlsen's play showed no discernible decline in quality in the latter stages of the long games. I completely overlooked this possibility
***** |
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Nov-23-13 | | shach matov: <alexmagnus:So Rybka (around 3150 back then) losing to 2300 0:4 at knight odds was just a fluke to you> That was not the case actually, the Rybka version they used was much weaker; the article says the following: "We had tried to give FM John Meyer (FIDE 2284) knight odds in a four game match a while back with an intermediate Rybka version, but he was too strong for this and Rybka lost 0-4. So we tried a rematch at pawn and three moves, and this time Rybka won by 3-1" So the old and weaker version of Rybka (prior to 2008) lost 0-4 at knight odds. That was interesting but hasn't got any relevance with our current discussion of Houdini playing a human; unless you think <an intermediate version> of Rybka 6 years ago is similar to a modern Houdini |
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Nov-23-13
 | | AylerKupp: <<Absentee> Deciding the outcome of a CLASSICAL event through RAPID tiebreaks is somewhat questionable.> It has been suggested that this format be retained but that the rapid tiebreaks, whatever the number, be played <first>. The idea behind this suggestion is that both players would know the tie break situation going into the classical games and it would motivate the player at the tie break disadvantage to play more aggressively from the beginning rather than the typical cautious play for the first few games. Not only would that guarantee more games (always a good thing for the spectators) but it would be like a warm up for the classical time control portion and allow the first/early round nervousness (which Carlsen admitted having) to go away before the <serious> playing begins. An interesting idea, I think. |
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Nov-23-13
 | | AylerKupp: <nimh> Thanks for the link. I had seen a different paper that compared computer engine ratings (not necessarily CCRL ratings, I don't remember which) and FIDE ratings and those authors came to a similar conclusion; computer engine ratings need to be de-rated for proper comparison with human ratings. One problem I have with all schemes that try to determine accuracy by comparing moves against some engine reference is that, in order to save time and obtain a sufficiently large sample to yield statistically meaningful results, the reference engine's search depth is limited to what I consider an unacceptably low number of plies. In papers by Guid, Bratko, Regan, and others. Initial search depths used were as low as 12 for Rybka, and increased to 20 for Houdini, but based on personal experience I don't consider these search limits for either engine acceptable. The authors make a considerable effort based on non-changing move rankings as search depth increases to justify the accuracy of the results obtained at such low search depths but, frankly, I don't buy their arguments. I have often seen these two engines (as well as others) change their evaluation <and ranking> of moves as higher search plies are achieved. So I don't consider any results these authors have generated to be reliable. And unfortunately Erik Varend did not indicate to what depth Rybka was allowed to search in order to establish the reference "best move" and its evaluation. So I have to withhold my acceptance of the results he presents until I find out the Rybka search depth used to establish the reference best move and evaluation. I did chuckle at the graph showing the relationship between the accuracy of play (as defined in the paper) and FIDE rating. According to the curve fitting a human with a FIDE rating of about 2960 will achieve an expected error rate of 0. It will be interesting to see if Carlsen (or any other player) achieves such a rating so that extrapolation can be verified. In fact, using the comparison table, Houdini 3's rating of approximately 3250 when run under the specific computer that were used for these CCRL games corresponds to a FIDE rating of about 2915. That would give Houdini 3 only about a 43 (human) Elo rating advantage over Carlsen's current rating of 2872, less than Carlsen's rating advantage over Aronian (currently #2 highest ranked at 2801). And, using the Elo P(Win) tables, a 56% to 44% winning advantage, projecting the score of a Houdini – Carlsen match to be a squeaker, 6.5 – 5.5 for a 12-game match. Interesting prospects indeed if the comparison tables are correct. |
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Nov-23-13
 | | AylerKupp: <<csmath> The perception of engines being lousy in endgames is about 10 years outdated.> I disagree. I am just a patzer and I repeatedly find endgame errors made by Houdini, Critter, etc. in endgame analyses run to considerable search depths, near 30-ply. I have confirmed these errors by sliding forward, using either the same engine or other engines. And, FWIW, I have found Rybka to be the best endgame engine, and I hypothesize that it's because it apparently prunes its search tree the least aggressive of all the major engines. Of course, none of this applies once the engines reach tablebase territory. As far as the engines being substantially stronger than the top players, see my response to <nimh> above for a <possible> difference of opinion, subject to validation the CCRL/FIDE comparison tables and updating them to reflect current CCRL and FIDE ratings. But don't worry, even I don't believe my own arguments. And two years ago I was fortunate to participate in this event: CG.com Masters vs. Machines Invitational (2011). A 12-game mini-tournament matching a consulting team of masters against 3 chess engines (Stockfish 2.0, Houdini 1.5a, and Rybka 4.1) running on ordinary computers as well as playing the engines against each other. We were all surprised at how well the team of masters did, winning one game, losing one game, and drawing the other four games. So when discussing human/computer matches we need to specify what type of hardware the chess engines are running in. It may be that chess engines are superior to top humans when run on extremely powerful hardware, but perhaps not as superior (if at all) when run on hardware that mere mortals like you and I can afford. |
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Nov-23-13
 | | AylerKupp: <SChesshevsky> Is a comparison between a computer playing chess and a human even relevant?> I don't think that it is any longer and the only reason I think that it keeps being brought up is for historical reasons. Chess at one point was the standard for artificial intelligence, with the thought that if a computer could play chess <using human principles> as well as a top human player, then artificial intelligence would have reached parity with human intelligence. Of course, it didn't turn out that way. Attempts at having computers play chess using human chess-playing principles failed miserably. It wasn't until chess playing algorithms were developed to maximize the use of the computer's strength, calculating ability, that computers began beating humans. But that just makes it more difficult to make meaningful comparisons between the two since the approaches are so different. |
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Nov-23-13 | | SirRuthless: <KKDEREK>For someone who like his style you sure do spend alot of time bashing him. Whatever floats your boat... Some people like their coffee black, bitter and strong and some people like it with masking agents of some form or other. |
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Nov-23-13 | | SirRuthless: <KKDEREK> I erased my post because it was a waste of words. Why try to formulate an argument for someone who isn't open to hearing it? You call him an "arschlock' whatever that means and you behave like one yourself. Of course you a free to like whomever you want. have a nice day/night. |
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Nov-23-13 | | csmath: AylerKupp, the relevant results that make more sense than people using computers cheating/playing people using computerss are here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human%... Notice, this is mostly up to 2004-2005 when computer engine were some 400 points weaker than today. Also notice how much of a beating human players got after 2004, even with pawn odds. I think you are in a big illusion if you think that any human player, Carlsen included, has any chance against current crop of engines like Houdini 3, Komodo 6, and Stockfish 4. |
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Nov-23-13 | | csmath: There is also a huge difference between drawing and winning. Drawing somebody lot stronger than yourself on the level above 2700 is not so difficult as beating him. I believe that Carlsen would be able to survive quite a few games against say Houdini but that does not mean he would play on even terms. Analogy: Borki Predojevic survived match with Carlsen with 1.5-2.5 but that does not mean he is close to strength of Carlsen. |
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Nov-23-13 | | jphamlore: Would the computer programs be allowed to use endgame tablebases in a match versus humans? |
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Nov-23-13 | | csmath: More comparisons for you.
Rybka engine that played last relevant human versus machine match against Milov lost close match to Zappa Mexico (another engine). I played Zappa in preparation on ICC, as a "cyborg" drawing. I used to beat him prior to that. The way how he got stronger over short time period was amazing to me. That Zappa is now losing to Houdini 3 with 14.5 : 35.5 score at CEGT in fifty games in tournament time controls (120+60). |
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Nov-23-13 | | SChesshevsky: Related to giving odds chess, I remember seeing a game, it might have even been a Joel Benjamin vs computer game but I can't be sure, with the Qrook pawn given and the pawn deficit actually turned out to be an advantage. The pressure on the file plus the tempo saved in getting the rook into play ended up being a significant consideration. Being a conniver, I've occasionally used it as a sneaky coffee house bet ploy. But please don't tell. |
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Nov-24-13 | | Daisuki: Considering a theoretical Carlsen-computer match, I think it may help to consider exactly how much Carlsen blunders/"inaccuracies" away in his median game. If it's not nearly a knight then we can assume that Carlsen is the favorite in such a match where he has knight odds. I think there really is a big difference between some pawns and a piece, especially given that this is from the start of the game, and not only in endgames where you often need larger material advantages to continue to improve your position. Rook and pawn is pretty ridiculous to me; Carlsen would be up so damn much from the start of the game that he'd have to blunder at least the rook away to fail to get the win he'd have from his starting position. The odds of that are quite poor per game, in my opinion. |
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Nov-24-13 | | piyushranjan: I had some interesting ideas not entirely related to this match. First of all i think that the color scheme WBWBWB - BWBWBW ( as was from Carlsen's perspective ) is not fair. Since we know white has an advantage.
I would prefer it more like the tie breaks in a tennis match W-BB-WW-BB-WW-BB-W
For competitors whose skills are close, and for anyone with white, lets say winning chance is > 50% this should prove to be fairer. What do others think? |
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Nov-24-13 | | Daisuki: Computer-computer ratings are also more subject to horizon effect differences between engines and engine versions (later versions may prune more accurately and thus reach more plies per GHz). Computers don't mind lots of only moves either, so it's understandable if some tactic beyond the horizon ruins them against a better computer. Humans play more drawishly in general, and don't "live on the edge" in the way that computers often do against each other. If the inferior engines/engine versions had human personalities they'd probably stop some of the bleeding by playing more drawishly and thus earn a higher performance rating than they do when they're in the "100% trust myself" mode that they play in for computer rating lists. |
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Nov-24-13 | | Marmot PFL: <Even if Houdini is just 3300 rated, the 400 rating difference is monstrous. A 2900 human would clearly need at least a piece and couple of pawn to have 50% chance of winning a game. One pawn odds is clearly not enough> A piece is certainly more than enough. Once you have a piece the rest is technique which doesn't even take a 2700 level. |
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Nov-24-13 | | KnightVBishop: if aronian adapted to magnus style, simple posistions but plays good move after good move like magnus could he be as good as him |
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Nov-24-13 | | Kazzak: <piyushranjan: I had some interesting ideas not entirely related to this match.
First of all i think that the color scheme WBWBWB - BWBWBW ( as was from Carlsen's perspective ) is not fair. Since we know white has an advantage.
I would prefer it more like the tie breaks in a tennis match W-BB-WW-BB-WW-BB-W
For competitors whose skills are close, and for anyone with white, lets say winning chance is > 50% this should prove to be fairer.What do others think?>
If they didn't have this sequence, the same player would open with white after rest day. wb wb wb wb wb wb
By reserving at midpoint, they give each player the same number of whites after rest day. wb wb wb bw bw bw
Here's your suggestion - with rest days taken into account - you can do the comparison. Player 1: wb bw wb bw wb bw
Player 2: bw wb bw wb bw wb |
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