< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 194 OF 206 ·
|Dec-12-07|| ||kackhander: Who do you think will give Topa the tougher match cotdt?|
|Dec-12-07|| ||cotdt: <kackhander: Who do you think will give Topa the tougher match cotdt?> the winner of kamsky-shirov match, of course!|
|Dec-12-07|| ||chessmoron: Shirov 0-2 and Kamsky 0-3 since 2004.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||geobel: For Topa it is better if he plays with Shirov
|Dec-12-07|| ||ahmadov: <geobel: For Topa it is better if he plays with Shirov> Shirov is currently in his best form, so it is not easy to say that confidently...|
|Dec-12-07|| ||kackhander: "cotdt: <kackhander: Who do you think will give Topa the tougher match cotdt?> the winner of kamsky-shirov match, of course!"|
That's your honest opinion? Whoever wins a 4-game mini match will be by definition the strongest challenger to Topalov? I don't agree with that assertion.
The recent records may be fairly even, but there might be a certain psychological advantage to Shirov in that he has beaten Topa 20 times, Kamsky has never managed it once in his career.
|Dec-12-07|| ||chessmoron: If Kamsky wins, in order to win against Topalov is drawing ALL his 8 games and don't let him play the Najdorf. And kill him in rapids.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||skrzypczyk: kamsky-shirov..who will win.anybody know..skrzypczyk|
|Dec-12-07|| ||chessmoron: If Shirov wins, he has the ambition and fighting spirit against Topalov|
If Kamsky wins, a +3 romp by Topalov.
|Dec-12-07|| ||mckmck: In Kamsky-Anand match, even Anand ranked higher as of now, he will lose the match.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||cotdt: <chessmoron: If Kamsky wins, in order to win against Topalov is drawing ALL his 8 games and don't let him play the Najdorf. And kill him in rapids.>|
We all know that Topalov will automatically lose his first 2 games, so he really only needs to draw 5 games.
|Dec-12-07|| ||cannibal: Without looking at any records, Kamsky will be hopelessly lost against Topalov because of his inferior opening preparation. Topa is one of the best prepared players, and you can't just trick him with weirdo openings ala Gata.|
I would say Topalov is clear favorite against Shirov, too (their styles are too similar, and Shirov's play in recent years hasn't been quite as precise as Topalov's overall). However, if Shirov keeps up his current form, he may surprise us once again.
Maybe a solid positional player (like Svidler, who is 4-2 against Topalov since 2004) might have had better chances.
I'd give Shirov around 25%, and Kamsky around 1%, but only to be polite towards American fans ;-)
|Dec-12-07|| ||chessmoron: Shirov HATES Topalov. Hope that triggers his winning ways. He also seeks revenge on Anand for beating him in KO Finals. Finally he wants to avenge Kramnik as well.|
Vengeance is his virtue.
|Dec-12-07|| ||Peligroso Patzer: < *** Without looking at any records, Kamsky will be hopelessly lost against Topalov because of his inferior opening preparation. *** >|
Historically, when Topalov and Kamsky have played each other in tournaments, this has been a very significant factor. If Kamsky wins the World Cup final against Shirov, however, he will have months to prepare openings specifically for use against Topalov. This should greatly reduce the opening prep advantage Topalov has enjoyed versus Kamsky in the past.
|Dec-12-07|| ||Peligroso Patzer: <badest: Lately (2003 -- now) Topalov has a better record towards Shirov. Topa beat Shirov 7 to 1 the last 4 yrs.>|
<kackhander: That's one win more than Kamsy has managed in his lifetime *** >
Fischer had zero (0) wins (and 3 losses in five games) against Spassky prior to 1972, but he did OK in the match once he decided to play.
|Dec-12-07|| ||kackhander: Fischer is, and correct me if I'm wrong, more often the exception than the rule.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||cotdt: <kackhander: Fischer is, and correct me if I'm wrong, more often the exception than the rule.> I beleive that Kamsky is also American enough to be an exception to this rule, while Shirov is not American at all, so he stands no chance.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||bgkuzzy: <Shirov HATES Topalov.> I just hope he is mature enough to shake his hand. Unlike some other GMs.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||suenteus po 147: Well, if Topalov is really like the Godzilla of chess, as <Topzilla> would have us believe, then there is only one player who can beat him: Mecha-Topalov.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||kackhander: The obvious American monopoly on exceptional people notwithstanding, Kamsky is about as American as Shirov is Spanish.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||crwynn: A lot of people seem to think Topalov will be a heavy favorite against either Shirov or Kamsky. But let's look at two recent matches that everyone was predicting in advance: Topalov-Kramnik and Carlsen-Aronian. I thought both of them would be pretty even fights - which they were - but somehow a lot of people thought Topalov would squash Kramnik, and Aronian Carlsen, because they didn't make allowances for the viscissitudes of "form".|
Since these same people who make predictions months, even more than a year, in advance based on a player's *current* form, tend to dismiss as "nobody's" people who were on top just a few years or even months ago, based on poor recent performances (Shirov and Kramnik for example) shouldn't it occur to them that a lot of current "somebody's" will be "nobody's" in a few months and vice versa? Shirov and Gelfand both used to be "has-beens", people were even writing off Radjabov (!) as failing to live up to his potential when he failed to make much progress around 2003-2005. And Topalov's "stock" has fallen a lot already, it may continue to do so - or he may go on the upswing again.
I think it's silly to be talking about any elite GM's chances against Topalov, Kramnik or Anand, especially as far off as 2009. Well, Shirov would almost certainly be an underdog against the latter two, Kamsky as well, but how much of one is impossible to say.
|Dec-12-07|| ||suenteus po 147: <Kamsky is about as American as Shirov is Spanish.> There's no about to it. Kamsky is American and Shirov is Spanish.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||chessmoron: Shirov is from an ethnic Russian descent born in Latvia. He just lives in Spain because his own country doesn't support his chess career and can't get him a citizenship.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||suenteus po 147: <chessmoron> I beg to differ. Shirov <was> Latvian and he became a naturalized Spanish citizen. Unless he holds dual citizenship, and then he would be Spanish and Latvian.|
|Dec-12-07|| ||chessmoron: <acirce> told me about it. It must be true, then. :P|
"his own country"==Latvia
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