|Altibox Norway (2017)|
Altibox Norway Chess 2017 took place in Stavanger from June 6-16. With an average rating just shy of 2800, this was one of the strongest tournaments in recent memory. The winner, by a full point, was Levon Aronian who finished on 6/9.
A preliminary blitz event Altibox Norway (Blitz) (2017) took place June 5th, with World Champion Magnus Carlsen winning by two whole points.
Players: Carlsen, So, Caruana, Kramnik, Vachier-Lagrave, Nakamura, Anand, Aronian, Karjakin, and Giri.
Time Control: Start with 100 min; add 50 minutes at move 40; add 15 minutes and 30s/move at move 60.
Tiebreak protocol: (A) Sonneborn-Berger points (B) Most wins (C) Most wins with black (D) Drawing of lots.
Live games: http://live.norwaychess.com
Official site: http://norwaychess.no/en/2017-2/
| page 1 of 2; games 1-25 of 45
| page 1 of 2; games 1-25 of 45
< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 30 OF 31 ·
|Jun-18-17|| ||tuttifrutty: <Your just a troll>|
Why crucify me when I am just telling the truth...Carlsen is done for good. The one trick pony has ended...it's busted. Everyone who he played a million times has adapted to his style...it's now payback time. Aronian showed him to play chess...a beautiful one.
< and an ugly one...>
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder...besides, what does it have to do with your good looks? You tell me.
|Jun-18-17|| ||Everyone: I believe <Everyone> is stylish.|
|Jun-18-17|| ||alexmagnus: I for one use the traditional formula of Arpad Elo himself and not the FIDE tables when calculating the TPR. An advantage is that you don't have to round the result to the nearest percent then. The formula is quite simple too: |
Here log is the base-10 logarithm, R the average rating of the opponents, G the number of games played as S the number of points scored.
|Jun-18-17|| ||nok: <An advantage is that you don't have to round the result to the nearest percent then.> The world is now a better place.|
|Jun-18-17|| ||alexmagnus: What I find funny abou that formula btw is that it fails for 0% and 100% for different mathematical reasons: for 0% because of division by 0 and for 100% because of logarithm of 0. |
I solve both by putting S=0.25 for 0% and S=G-0.25 for 100%. This gives you the maximum rating for which 0 was exprected resp. the minimum rating for which 100% was expected.
|Jun-18-17|| ||BOSTER: <tpstar>.Thanks for the link.|
|Jun-18-17|| ||botvinnik64: Poland defeats USA in the Open section; Russia is held to a draw by...Turkey (!)...|
|Jun-18-17|| ||plang: Team tournament is considerably weaker than usual.|
|Jun-18-17|| ||BOSTER: <tuttifrutty>: <Carsen is done>.
Not so fast.Is not evening yet.|
|Jun-18-17|| ||technical win: <Russia is held to a draw by...Turkey (!)> Ouch!|
|Jun-18-17|| ||AylerKupp: <<beenthere240> I assume a TPR is a toilet paper roller. Right?>|
Right. And the TPR value is a reflection of the probability that you will run out of toilet paper just when you need it the most. :-)
|Jun-18-17|| ||AylerKupp: <<alex magnus> I for one use the traditional formula of Arpad Elo himself and not the FIDE tables when calculating the TPR>|
Hmmm, where did you get that formula, I've never seen it before. No criticism, merely curiosity. In his book, "The Rating of Chessplayers, Past and Present" first published in 1978, Dr. Elo indicates that the "performance rating" is calculated the same way that FIDE uses, namely
Rp = Rc + D(P) where
Rp = The performance rating
Rc = The average rating of the player's opponents
D(P) = he difference based on the percentage score which is obtained from the curve or table.
I take the latter to mean a table like Table 8.1a in https://www.fide.com/fide/handbook.... which converts a fractional score (points scored / games played) into a rating difference. And he then caveats it by indicating that the same formula can be used for <ratings calculation> on a <periodic basis> which makes no sense for a TPR since a TPR calculation is by definition, applicable to a single tournament. So Dr. Elo uses different terminology than what is being used today; who knows what he was actually referring to?
For ratings calculations I personally use an expanded table based on the normal distribution with standard deviation = 2000/7 with rating differences ranging from -1000 to +1000 so that each rating difference has a unique scoring probability. This requires that each scoring probability be calculated to 5 significant digits. The advantage is that for ratings calculations no searching is needed, the table can be indexed directly from the rating difference. For TPR calculations the conversion from fractional score is then the reverse, which unfortunately does require searching since the fractional score may not correspond exactly to any of the D(P)'s.
Then again, Dr. Elo first came up with his system in 1960 and, since the book was published in 1978, a lot of water might have gone under the bridge. For example, in his book he says that he used a standard deviation = 200 to correspond to the accepted class interval but, if you do this, you don't get the values used in FIDE's Table 8.1b that FIDE uses to calculate player ratings. So I use SD = 2000/7 (thanks, <Tiggler>!)just like FIDE apparently does.
Finally, a TPR is a theoretical calculations which can't be checked by actual measurements. All we know is what a player's expected score in a tournament was based on his and his opponents' pre-tournament rating, and his actual score. Then the issue is how to convert that scoring percentage to some number in the range of pre-tournament ratings that, as a necessary but not sufficient condition, shows a positive difference between the player's TPR and his pre-tournament rating if the player did well in the tournament and a negative difference between the player's TPR and his pre-tournament rating if the player did not do well in the tournament. And there are many ways of doing that. Who's to say what's "right" since there is no way to measure the calculations' accuracy?
|Jun-18-17|| ||AylerKupp: <alexmagnus> Updated TPR Differences (part 1 of 2)|
My previous post was already long (as usual) but I wanted to update my earlier post and show how your formula compares to the other formulas I listed. The first 3 columns are as before and the last column is the TPR calculation using your formula:
After round 7:
Anand, Viswanathan <2743> <2737> <2724> <2748>
Aronian, Levon <2958> <2969> <3037> <2957>
Carlsen, Magnus <2691> <2682> <2646> <2691>
Caruana, Fabiano <2750> <2744> <2745> <2746>
Giri, Anish <2849> <2845> <2952> <2850>
Karjakin, Sergei <2744> <2738> <2712> <2749>
Kramnik, Vladimir <2851> <2857> <2878> <2846>
Nakamura, Hikaru <2899> <2910> <2872> <2901>
So, Wesley <2797> <2797> <2791> <2796>
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime <2693> <2684> <2731> <2695>
After round 8:
Anand, Viswanathan <2749> <2744> <2738> <2754>
Aronian, Levon <2935> <2946> <2988> <2935>
Carlsen, Magnus <2749> <2744> <2735> <2749>
Caruana, Fabiano <2752> <2747> <2748> <2752>
Giri, Anish <2843> <2849> <2929> <2844>
Karjakin, Sergei <2707> <2699> <2657> <2710>
Kramnik, Vladimir <2799> <2799> <2804> <2796>
Nakamura, Hikaru <2888> <2897> <2859> <2888>
So, Wesley <2796> <2796> <2791> <2796>
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime <2754> <2749> <2804> <2753>
|Jun-18-17|| ||AylerKupp: <alexmagnus> Updated TPR Differences (part 2 of 2)|
As you can see, your calculations and mine agree to within 5 rating points. So we are either both reasonably right or both reasonably wrong, and the differences might be entirely due to rounding errors and/or the number of significant digits we each use in our calculations. As I indicated above, I round all my calculations to 5 significant digits, although I'm not sure if this is right.
As far as your formula failing when a player either wins or loses all his games, I've heard that before, most commonly in respect to Fischer's 11-0 score in the 1963-1964 US Championship. And I could never understand that since none of the formulas I was familiar with exhibited that behavior. But now I have one. :-) With FIDE's formula a perfect score results in a player's TPR being 800 points higher than their pre-tournament rating, and a zero score results in a player's TPR being 800 points lower than their pre-tournament rating. It may be that your formula and FIDE's/my formula diverge greatly as the rating differences and/or the scoring percentage tends to zero or perfection, but I won't bother to consider that now since in practice that seldom if ever happen at the top level.
|Jun-18-17|| ||ChessHigherCat: <tpstar: Tolush-Flohr (Kiev, 1944)> Thanks Tony, great research and deciphering/reconstruction!|
|Jun-18-17|| ||tuttifrutty: <As you can see, your calculations and mine agree to within 5 rating points. So we are either both reasonably right or both reasonably wrong, and the differences might be entirely due to rounding errors and/or the number of significant digits we each use in our calculations. As I indicated above, I round all my calculations to 5 significant digits, although I'm not sure if this is right.>|
Two mathematician can't get it right??? Come on...please get your act together. There's no room for error...or your spacecraft will blow up during take off...
My bet is alexmagnus got it right...he has been doing it for life...no question about that.
Well, well, well...will the mumbo jumbo continue? We'll wait and see.
|Jun-18-17|| ||tuttifrutty: Hmmmm....
Giri's previous coach was GM Tukmakov--- results...all draws.
Wesley's coach at this moment is GM Tukmakov...results...all draws.
Coincidence??? You tell me.
|Jun-18-17|| ||AylerKupp: <<tuttifrutty> Well, well, well...will the mumbo jumbo continue? We'll wait and see.> |
Yes, the mumbo jumbo will continue as long as I wish it to continue. And there is nothing you can do about it. So there is no need for you to wait and see., unless you have nothing better to do. And you clearly don't.
And, BTW, there is no right or wrong. But you obviously didn't understand that either.
|Jun-19-17|| ||perfidious: When <Glenn> wishes such mumbo-jumbo to carry on, he has no trouble subjecting all and sundry to it, as he has done in various guises across the years.|
Iggydumb is the antidote for that.
|Jun-19-17|| ||Sokrates: Also my thanks to <tpstar> for this little pearl of a combination. Unfortunately undetected by Flohr himself, but nevertheless beautiful.|
|Jun-19-17|| ||Rama: I estimate TPR by asking: What rating would neither gain nor lose points with my given result? The formula 16(W-L) 4% (R*-R) can then be solved for R*, the rating which balances the equation. (That is the USCF formula as I remember it from the 80's)|
|Jun-19-17|| ||activechess55: Aronian has been terrific form this year. His play reminded his fans of the Aronian of the old. One of the trademarks of his play is the lusty finishing which was in ample evidence during this event. Congrats Aronian!|
He was among the leaders, in early phases, in the candidates for the past few cycles. Unfortunately, towards the end he ran out of steam. I don't think, he is a choker. Could be exhaustion issues. Considering that candidates happens to be a long event, it wouldn't be a surprise at all.
Whatever may the reason, I do wish Aronian qualifies as challenger. If he continues his fine form into the 2018's, a keen tussle for world title would be on cards.
|Jun-19-17|| ||john barleycorn: <activechess55: ... Could be exhaustion issues. Considering that candidates happens to be a long event, it wouldn't be a surprise at all. ...>|
It is a long event for every participant.
|Jun-19-17|| ||AylerKupp: <<Rama> The formula 16(W-L) 4% (R*-R) can then be solved for R*, the rating which balances the equation.>|
Thanks, I did know this one which I recognized after solving for R*. This is the (somewhat) well known "algorithm of 400" which is used by some organizations and was probably used by the USCF in the 1980s. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_r.... It can be expressed as:
* If you win a game, your TPR will be the opponent's rating + 400
* If you lose a game, your TPR will be the opponent's rating - 400
* If you draw a game, your TPR will be the opponent's rating.
This equates to:
R* = RA + 400(W – L) / N, where:
R* = Performance rating
RA = Average of opponents ratings
W = Number of wins
L = Number of losses
N = Number of games played
In your formula I think that it should be –4%(R*-R) instead of 4%(R*-R) (because that makes it come out right), and 16(W-L) should be divided by N. Other than that, your memory is pretty good!
And for comparison, here is how "my" method (1st column) compares with yours (2nd column) and the difference (3rd column) after round 8:
Anand, Viswanathan <2749> <2748> <+1>
Aronian, Levon <2935> <2948> <-13>
Carlsen, Magnus <2749> <2743> <+6>
Caruana, Fabiano <2752> <2746> <+6>
Giri, Anish <2843> <2850> <-7>
Karjakin, Sergei <2707> <2699> <+8>
Kramnik, Vladimir <2799> <2796> <+3>
Nakamura, Hikaru <2888> <2899> <-11>
So, Wesley <2796> <2796> <0>
Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime <2754> <2747> <+7>
Pretty close. And, again, since TPR is a hypothetical number, there is no way determine which value, if any, is the correct value since it can't be measured.
|Jun-19-17|| ||AylerKupp: <<john barleycorn> It is a long event for every participant>|
Yes it a long event with a lot of stress given the importance of the outcome. But remember that in the past the Candidates Tournament was often twice or near twice the current number of 14 games. And in those days they had adjournments instead of continuing to play with increments, although I wouldn't know which is more grueling, adjournments (with help) on their days off or continuing to play until the game is over. And today's prize fund is so much larger than in the past so I'm sure that increases the stress in today's tournament.
< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 30 OF 31 ·
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