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Sergey Karjakin vs Magnus Carlsen
Bazna King's Tournament (2011), Medias ROU, rd 4, Jun-14
Caro-Kann Defense: Advance. Short Variation (B12)  ·  1/2-1/2
ANALYSIS [x]

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Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 7 OF 7 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: I guess that proves it's not over when it's over.
Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Karjakin is a cool customer calmly defending. Magnus has to be a little frustrated to this point. I didn't think Karjakin would hold this...but it's not over yet.
Jun-14-11  Ulhumbrus: I admit freely and cheerfully my error. Carlsen has not overestimated his position. He has returned the pawn, perhaps having evaluated the position objectively as equal.
Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Spoke to soon. Kudos to Karjakin for some nice defense.
Jun-14-11  Chris00nj: For what it's worth Pocket Fritz 4 rates the position after 34. Rb1 at 0.00 to a depth of 14.
Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Ulhumbrus> In a rational world, even politicians and clerics would use your catchphrase...

"Pie in the sky, however this may turn out to be not the case ..."

Jun-14-11  virginmind: <Mozart72> it happens all the time.
Jun-14-11  Mozart72: <virginmind> I agree. I guess the Win Expectency Formula is just that, an expectancy.
Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Mozart> You have far too much faith in the rating system. The difference between the upper 2600s and the mid-2700s is not so great.

I've regularly beaten players 400 points above me, and I sometimes lose to people 800 points lower down.

Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  FSR: Radjabov played the Schliemann against Nisipeanu, which in Radjabov's hands means a draw. He draws everyone with the Schliemann. http://www.chessgames.com/perl/ches...
Jun-14-11  Mozart72: <domdaniel> Then something has to be changed in the rating system. It's not objective.
Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  Administrator: Thanks to everyone for your participation in today's game. Our coverage of the Bazna Kings tournament continues tomorrow at 8:30 AM USA/Eastern time. Hope to see you then.
Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  FSR: Moreover, Nisipeanu was White, which is worth 50 rating points, e.g. a 2662 playing White against a 2712 would be expected to score 50%. So Nisipeanu was only a slight underdog.
Jun-14-11  Ulhumbrus: <Mozart72: <domdaniel> Then something has to be changed in the rating system. It's not objective.> It gives some indication of the chances when players meet, or the result which can be forecast in a match. It is not as nearly as reliable as any guarantee as it is only a forecast.
Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: Tomorrow should be a better test for the rating system

MC 2815 v Nisipeanu 2662

But the wild card is that Nisipeanu has better chances for a draw than his rating would indicate because of the equalizing nature of prepared analysis.

Jun-14-11  Mozart72: <tamar> Yup. Lets see what happens tomarrow with Carlsen, Nisipeanu, and the Fide Rating System.
Jun-14-11  Ulhumbrus: One justification for 14...a4 is that the d4 pawn keeps a white knight out of the square c3 from where the knight can attack the a4 pawn.

This suggests that instead of 14 Rb1, 14 b3 is better, to be followed by Rb1.

Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  lost in space: Aha. I have now my helmet and it is a draw.
Jun-14-11  Ulhumbrus: <lost in space> Are you sending your messages from a rocket or from a space station?
Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  Domdaniel: <Mozart72> - < <domdaniel> Then something has to be changed in the rating system. It's not objective.>

If you find a way to make objective predictions with 100% accuracy on single events, and if I'm very nice to you, will you give me 0.001% of your winnings?

I'll buy a small European country and devote it to chess, music, mathematics, and back-stabbing.

Jun-14-11
Premium Chessgames Member
  An Englishman: Good Afternoon: Took rather a bit longer than I expected, but every pawn west of the f-file eventually came off.
Jun-14-11  Ezzy: Carlsen doesn't play the Caro Kann often, and has yet to win a classical game with it. He did however beat Karjakin with it at the 2008 World Blitz Championships. So, why not give it another try?

But to no avail. Still without a win in classical chess with the Caro Kann. (As black)

Jun-15-11  randyjohnson: Tomorrow should be a better test for the rating system MC 2815 v Nisipeanu 2662

But the wild card is that Nisipeanu has better chances for a draw than his rating would indicate because of the equalizing nature of prepared analysis.

If this is true then "the equalizing nature of preparad analysis should change the ratings and we will have Nisi with a little more elo and Carlsen with little less elo.

Elo is not a bad way to understand who are good and who are not so good in chess.

Jun-17-11  sevenseaman: <Domdaniel> I support your balanced views on the elo. But such searing sarcasm on some innocent inferences! These can always be assumed to be naive.

I agree even a 500 point or more difference cannot be decisive. There is the factor of match temperament, and it is not a constant for a given player even from opponent to opponent.

We have not come to a stage where the highest rated GM is pronounced World Champion. Elo will always remain a rough pointer.

It will be foolhardy to place one's bets based on elo rating. Carlsen - Karjakin game is too close to call. All considered, I will say 10 vs 9.9.

Oct-09-11  Matsumoto: Carlsen playing Caro-Kann? This must be to psyke out any future opponent. ... How do you prepare for the world's best playing, who you might expect to play anything!
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