chessgames.com
Members · Prefs · Laboratory · Collections · Openings · Endgames · Sacrifices · History · Search Kibitzing · Kibitzer's Café · Chessforums · Tournament Index · Players · Kibitzing

(If you register a free account you won't see all these ads!)
Magnus Carlsen vs Levon Aronian
Sinquefield Cup (2017), Saint Louis, MO USA, rd 9, Aug-11
Spanish Game: Closed Variations (C84)  ·  1-0
ANALYSIS [x]

FEN COPIED

Click Here to play Guess-the-Move
Given 2 times; par: 74 [what's this?]

NOTE: You are using our new chess viewer, "Olga." For more info see the Olga Quickstart Guide. You can switch back to the old viewer (pgn4web) from the pulldown menu below. If you have questions or suggestions see our Olga chessforum.

explore this opening
find similar games 99 more Carlsen/Aronian games
PGN: download | view | print Help: general | java-troubleshooting

TIP: If you cannot see the game above, try switching to the viewer Olga.

PGN Viewer:  What is this?
For help with this chess viewer, please see the Olga Chess Viewer Quickstart Guide.
PREMIUM MEMBERS CAN REQUEST COMPUTER ANALYSIS [more info]

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 13 OF 13 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Aug-12-17  Conrad93: Aronian's biggest mistake was not playing 15...Nh5. It would have offered more resistance. You can't allow even microscopic slip ups against a player like Carlsen.
Aug-12-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  ChessHigherCat: <Conrad93: Aronian's biggest mistake was not playing 15...Nh5. It would have offered more resistance. You can't allow even microscopic slip ups against a player like Carlsen.>

Good point, I guess Aronian wanted to recycle the knight on the queenside with Nd7/c5 but 15...Nh5 would have been a million times better. All of a sudden black has the initiative.

Aug-13-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: Jan with a great review of this "heavyweight battle." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ar...
Aug-13-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  ChessHigherCat: < tamar: Jan with a great review of this "heavyweight battle." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ar...

Very good review but that guy dismisses 15....Nh5 because he says the knight would just be traded off on f4 with BxN RxB and black would still have the doubled pawns. But what about Bxf4 exf4? Then black would get rid of the doubled pawns and get a bishop for a knight. It's true exf4 closes the f-file but black could still get a strong kingside attack with a rook lift.

Aug-13-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: <ChessHigherCat:...Very good review but that guy dismisses 15....Nh5 because he says the knight would just be traded off on f4 with BxN RxB and black would still have the doubled pawns. But what about Bxf4 exf4? Then black would get rid of the doubled pawns and get a bishop for a knight. It's true exf4 closes the f-file but black could still get a strong kingside attack with a rook lift.>

It is not true to say he dismisses 15...Nh5, just that he thinks that the rook capture after 16 Be3 Nf4 17 Bxf4 Rxf4 is the only logical continuation.

I decided to investigate the 17...exf4 capture, for the reasons you indicate. If Black can keep the position closed, the f4 pawn can lead to an advantage on the Kside, and the heavy pieces can lift behind a pawn rush.

I set Stockfish for 33 depth, and it showed that White can open the position, and get a substantial edge.

15...Nh5 16 Be3 Nf4 17 Bxf4 exf4


click for larger view

Aug-14-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: 18 d4 Rb5 19 d5 Nd8 20 cxb4 Rxb4 21 Rc1 Nf7 22 e5


click for larger view

22...exd5 23 exd6 Bxd6 24 Qxd5 Rb5 25 Qc6 Ng5 26 Nxg5 Rxg5 27 Qf3 h6 28 Rcd1 +0.81/33


click for larger view

Aronian may well have gotten something similar in his preparation, as Black cannot really keep the position closed once his e5 pawn is not there.

Aug-14-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  ChessHigherCat: Hi <Tamar>. Thanks a lot for the detailed analysis. Does +0.81 mean that white has an advantage of 4/5 of a pawn after move 28? I think black looks okay in your final diagram. I'd try Bc5 with the idea of Rg3 and white is totally demolished (unfortunately white has a move in-between though :-)
Aug-14-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: Hi <CHC> The 0.81/33 means that White is almost winning, but still has to cope with temporary piece activity by Black.

28...Bc5 with the idea of 29...Rg3 doesn't work because of 29 Ne5, but the toughest defence makes use of the same idea.

28...Bb4 29 Qb3 Rxg2+ 30 Kh1 Rg3! 31 fxg3 Qc6+ 32 Kg1 Bc5+ 33 Ne3 disc + Kh8 34 Qd5 Bxe3+ 35 Kh1


click for larger view

With advantage to White, but technical difficulties as they say. But to shoot for a position where you have to play like a wizard just to get a probable loss is not a recommendation for 15...exf4

Aug-14-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  ChessHigherCat: Thanks again <Tamar>. At first I thought Bxe3+ looses the Q, but then it dawned on me if 34. ...Bxe3+, 35. Rxe3 then Qxe5+ 36. Rxe5 and dxe3.

<But to shoot for a position where you have to play like a wizard just to get a probable loss is not a recommendation for 15...exf4>

That's true, but I guess the big question is whether 15...Rxf4 or Aronian's 15...Nd7 fare any better.

Aug-14-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  ChessHigherCat: Correction: *loses* the Queen. I jenerly hef purfekt shpelink bot eye mayk zee ocashonal miztayk
Aug-14-17  Mirovsk: What started Aronian's fissure was 14. ..Qg6 ...his Queen stayed useless there until another defensive movement to 22. ..h6... and than that Queen was in the game again only with 33. ..g5 .....meanwhile the battle was on the very queen side, where while Carlsen was moving all his pieces, Aronian's Queen and Rook stayed put... from move 14 to move 33 Carlsen's Queen had 4 moves, the most efficient piece on board...it's interesting that when 25.Qc6! the Queen was placed behind Aronian's attacking line...


click for larger view

when Aronian's Queen was back in the game (move 33) it was too late.

Aug-25-17  The Boomerang: "If Magnus fails to win World Cup or London then it will have been well over a year since he won a major classical tournament.

Used to be out of this world, now just another top 5 player."

Players lose form, sometimes for long periods, he's close to his best but not quite.Look how long Aronian was out of form, happens to everyone. He still dominates all the ratingd lists and still dominates blitz and rapid.

Aug-25-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  john barleycorn: Carlsen may have suffered from jetlag, braindrain, bad digestion etc.pp. like all the others do. And he has NO ONE who is praying for him, writing motivational poems lalala. It is a miracle why he still holds the #1 position
Aug-25-17  rogge: Pure luck, you know that.
Aug-26-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  thegoodanarchist: Carlsen teaches Aronian how the horsey moves...
Aug-26-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  AylerKupp: <tamar> I would say that an engine eval of [+0.81] indicates that White is slightly better but nowhere close to winning. FWIW, I assess engine evals from White's side as follows:

[0.00] to [+0.49]: Equal

[+0.50] to [+0.99]: White is slightly better but probably not enough to win.

[+1.00] to [+1.99]: White is definitely better and possibly good enough to win.

[+2.00] and up: White is winning. Most GUIs consider a White advantage of [+1.50] and up as winning for White but I prefer to be more conservative.

And starting the analysis from your final position


click for larger view

Stockfish 8 evaluates the resulting position at [+0.52], d=39, after 28...Bb4 29.Qb3 Rxg2+ 30.Kh1 Rg3 31.fxg3 Qc6+ 32.Kg1 Bc5+ 33.Ne3+ Kh8 34.Qd5 Bxe3+ 35.Kh1 Qc2 36.Qg2 Qc5 37.Qf3 Bd4 38.gxf4 Bxb2 39.Qd5 Qc3 40.Qg2 Qf6 41.Rd7 Bc3 42.Ree7 Rg8 43.Rf7 Qe6 44.Rxc7 Bf6 45.Rfd7 Qf5 46.Qf3 Qxa5 47.Qe4 Qh5 48.Kg2 Re8 49.Rd5 Qxh3+ 50.Kxh3 Rxe4 51.Kg4 Bg5 52.Rf5 Bf6 53.Rfc5 Bg5 54.Rc4 Rxc4 55.Rxc4 Be7 56.Rc8+ Kh7 57.Kf5 Bb4, so the evaluation of [+0.81] by Stockfish after 28.Rcd1 seems reasonable. And, with R vs. B+2P but with White having the more active king, this evaluation of [+0.52] after 57...Bb4 also seems reasonable.


click for larger view

However, this is a long and complex line which is not likely to happen in its entirety and I, for one, would not want to go through with it with either side!

Aug-26-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: <AylerKupp> A better way to classify engine assessments is whether they trend up or down, or stall out.

So if in the position I gave, Stockfish trends downward at higher depths, as you say it does down to +0.52, a +.81 could be said to be only a slight advantage. But that just means the eval is really +0.52.

So an evaluation standing alone like +0.81 could mean almost anything, and in another position could be trending toward a win.

A complicating factor I have noticed in the TCEC matches is even slight advantages, like +0.52 can turn into wins after seemingly endless shuffling, as the engine searches forever to make tablebase positions come about.

Aug-27-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  AylerKupp: <tamar> A better way to classify engine assessments is whether they trend up or down, or stall out.>

I agree. But for convenience (or, I suppose, laziness) we all typically cite an evaluation and a search depth in supporting "our" assessment of a position. What we should probably do, as you indicate, is look at the evaluation trends and continue to run the analysis until the trends flatten out and stabilize.

Another possible indicator is the evaluation difference between the engine's best move and its second best move. If the evaluation difference is increasing, it's likely (but not guaranteed!) that the engine's top move is indeed the top move and it's probably reasonably safe to stop the analysis. But if the evaluation difference is decreasing, the engine's current second best move might overtake the engines current best move, and we should probably let the engine analysis continue running.

But in either case we must always keep in mind AylerKupp's Corollary to Murphy's Law (AKC2ML). See my forum's header for details.

And I agree, anything between [+0.50] and [+0.99] results in the same human assessment, so the evaluations [+0.81] and [+0.51] are effectively the same, at least as far as humans are concerned. Which is probably another way of saying that the resolution of humans as far as classifying any advantage for one side or the other in a particular position is ± 0.5 pawns.

And yes, in all engine vs. engine games, not just TCEC matches, I've noticed that engines sometimes engage in seemingless endless shuffling, what I call "engine dithering". I suppose that's not that different than some players, particularly a stronger player playing a weaker player, do something similar, marking time until their opponents make a mistake or at least an inaccuracy. Then they pounce and take advantage of it.

Carlsen is a good current example, or at least the Carlsen of a couple of years ago, in grinding out a win. Capablanca often did something similar and perhaps it was prescient to refer to him as the "machine". :-)

Aug-28-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: <AylerKupp :...Another possible indicator is the evaluation difference between the engine's best move and its second best move. If the evaluation difference is increasing, it's likely (but not guaranteed!) that the engine's top move is indeed the top move and it's probably reasonably safe to stop the analysis. But if the evaluation difference is decreasing, the engine's current second best move might overtake the engines current best move, and we should probably let the engine analysis continue running...>

I take your point. Examining the proximity of the candidate moves would have indicated I should have let the analysis run.

In the case at hand, here is a snapshot of a midpoint of the analysis showing at 33 depth three moves were within hailing distance of each other.


click for larger view

1. ± (0.75): 22.e5 exd5 23.exd6 Bxd6 24.Qxd5 Rb5 25.Qc6 Ng5 26.Nxg5 Rxg5 27.Qf3 Rb5 28.Re4 Qf6 29.Rd1 h6 30.Nxd6 cxd6 31.b4 d5 32.Red4 Qd6 33.Qd3 Kh8 34.Rxd5 Rxd5 35.Qxd5 Qxb4 36.Qd6 Qxd6 37.Rxd6 Rf6 38.Rxf6 gxf6 39.Kf1 f3 40.gxf3 Kg7 41.Ke2 Kf7 42.Kd3 Ke6 43.Kd4 Kd6 44.Kc4 h5 45.Kb4 Kc6

2. ± (0.72): 22.Qd2 Rbb8 23.e5 exd5 24.exd6 Bxd6 25.Qxd5 Rb5 26.Qc6 Ng5 27.Nxg5 Rxg5 28.Qf3 Rb5 29.Re4 Qf6 30.Rd1 h6 31.Nxd6 cxd6 32.b4 d5 33.Red4 Qe7 34.Qd3 f3 35.gxf3 Kh8 36.Rb1 Qf6 37.Kg2 Rd8 38.Rd1 Qd6 39.Qf5 Rf8 40.Rxd5 Qxb4 41.Rxb5 axb5

3. ⩲ (0.63): 22.Kh1 Ng5 23.e5 Nxf3 24.Qxf3 exd5 25.exd6 Bxd6 26.Qxd5+ Qf7 27.Qxf7+ Kxf7 28.Red1 f3 29.g3 Kg6 30.Nxd6 cxd6 31.Rxd6+ Rf6 32.Rd2 h5 33.Kg1 Rb5 34.Rc7 Kh6 35.Rdd7 Re6 36.Rxg7 Re1+ 37.Kh2 Re2 38.Rh7+ Kg6 39.Rcg7+ Kf6 40.Rf7+ Kg6 41.Rhg7+ Kh6 42.g4 hxg4 43.Rxg4 Rxf2+ 44.Kg3 Rfxb2 45.Rf6+ Kh5 46.Rxa6

From a practical point of view though, a super GM like Aronian would shut down the analysis once this point is reached in his prep, and that is probably the reason he ditched the 15...Nh5 plan entirely. Not because it loses, but because the unbalancing capture with the pawn on f4 is risky with little or no chance of Black advantage.

The 15...Nd7 idea he came up with is very creative, but less direct. But he would know almost certainly that it had not been examined by Carlsen either.

Aug-29-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: Nakamura commented https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vJ... (3:33:00 mark)

"When he got these rooks on f8 and b2, it looked like he had something, but just looking at the position, optically it looks like there is something, but with the pawn structure with the way it was, it seemed kind of suspect."

That seemed to me to be a very telling comment, because to get the Rook to b2, Levon had to exchange on c3, which the engines flag as starting White's big advantage. Levon saw the chance to get all his pieces working, and went into to it thinking he would find a resource.

After the key moves, 21 Rf1 and 24 Rae1 leading to the b2 rook exchange, Nakamura commented again.

"It just feels like in this position


click for larger view

even though you have these pieces kind of near White's King, they are not really creating threats.

I think that is one thing Magnus is very good at actually, ...if there there really is no concrete threats, he is very good at pushing you back."

21 Rf1 stands out as the turniing point. Levon might have thought he was forcing this move, but in this case, it is the only move to grab a big edge for White +.72 at 33 depth, while all the other moves allow near equality.

It answers all of Black's threats and Magnus pushes him back.

Aug-29-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  ChessHigherCat: Hi <Tamar>, hey I remember that game.

What's interesting about Nakamura's analysis (apart from the point about Rf1) is how impressionistic he is. His approach seems much more intuitive than mechanistic/scientific:

"but just looking at the position, optically it looks like there is something, but with the pawn structure with the way it was, it seemed kind of suspect"

"It just feels like in this position..."

I remember watching GM Jakov Murey play blitz and he always slammed down each piece and screwed it into the board like "This is my system and my philosophy of life!" (not to mention the Way, the Truth and the Light)" but these guys seemed to have abandoned reductionist principles (which may have been applied to everything, including chess, in Soviet Russia).

Aug-29-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: <ChessHigherCat> Yeah, it shows a side of Nakamura that is supposedly absent from his chess identity. He is supposed to be a calculating wizard, with little feel for intuitive evaluations.

I think he recognized in Aronian's play a failing he also has against Magnus -overvaluing the initiative making for good optics-, "but with the pawn structure with the way it was, it seemed kind of suspect"

Aug-30-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  perfidious: <CHC> and <tamar>, a poker Hall of Famer I have sat opposite a number of times wrote of something he termed 'feel', which he believes separates the greatest players from others.

While Nakamura is rightly renowned for his prowess in calculation, he clearly has analysed a great many top level games and is more than capable of coming to intuitive assessments, which is probably done to a great extent subconsciously.

Aug-30-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  tamar: <perfidious> Naka's many games against Magnus have taught him a lot, and should not be discounted.

Alekhine, after all, had a similar helplessness against Capablanca until he made a study of why he and others lost to him.

Aug-30-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  ChessHigherCat: <Perfidious> and <tamar> yeah, intuition in chess, rather than being something mystical (although that may be possible, too) boils down to so many years of analysis and pattern recognition that you just unconsciously know that a certain move "must be right". I'm not there in chess yet, unfortunately, but I'm very good at "intuitively" deciphering difficult texts in quite a few foreign languages and there's nothing magical about it, it comes from years of study, analysis and gradual acquisition of vocabulary.
Jump to page #    (enter # from 1 to 13)
search thread:   
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 13 OF 13 ·  Later Kibitzing>
NOTE: You need to pick a username and password to post a reply. Getting your account takes less than a minute, totally anonymous, and 100% free--plus, it entitles you to features otherwise unavailable. Pick your username now and join the chessgames community!
If you already have an account, you should login now.
Please observe our posting guidelines:
  1. No obscene, racist, sexist, or profane language.
  2. No spamming, advertising, or duplicating posts.
  3. No personal attacks against other members.
  4. Nothing in violation of United States law.
  5. No posting personal information of members.
Blow the Whistle See something that violates our rules? Blow the whistle and inform an administrator.


NOTE: Keep all discussion on the topic of this page. This forum is for this specific game and nothing else. If you want to discuss chess in general, or this site, you might try the Kibitzer's Café.
Messages posted by Chessgames members do not necessarily represent the views of Chessgames.com, its employees, or sponsors.
Spot an error? Please submit a correction slip and help us eliminate database mistakes!
This game is type: CLASSICAL (Disagree? Please submit a correction slip.)

Featured in the Following Game Collection [what is this?]
The Ruy Lopez + The Italian Game
by frogmanjones


home | about | login | logout | F.A.Q. | your profile | preferences | Premium Membership | Kibitzer's Café | Biographer's Bistro | new kibitzing | chessforums | Tournament Index | Player Directory | Notable Games | World Chess Championships | Opening Explorer | Guess the Move | Game Collections | ChessBookie Game | Chessgames Challenge | Store | privacy notice | contact us
Copyright 2001-2017, Chessgames Services LLC