< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 19 OF 824 ·
|Jan-11-16|| ||Jim Bartle: Burfict suspended for three gamrs next year.|
|Jan-11-16|| ||Bobsterman3000: Wow, total meltdown by Clemson on the TD to the Alabama tight end early in 3rd quarter. One defensive back out wide covering two receivers.|
|Jan-11-16|| ||Jim Bartle: A DB on Clemson had to see that and call time. Certainly the one DB out there knew he was outnumbered.|
|Jan-11-16|| ||HeMateMe: I thought the Gisselle thing happened in the stadium while she was leaving? Fans busted her chops and she let 'em have it.|
|Jan-11-16|| ||WannaBe: Anyone took the over on the CLEM/ALA game? I heard it was 50.5, and it's 24-21 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd qtr.|
|Jan-12-16|| ||WannaBe: Well, the best case scenario happened for bookies, even with the late score, by Clemson, Alabama won, but did not cover the 6.5 spread.|
Bookies were heavy on Alabama to cover the spread, but also took big bets on Clemson straight up.
|Jan-12-16|| ||HeMateMe: Wannabe, are you one of those old Asian guys who bets on everything from when the morning paper will arrive to what time the bus shows up?|
|Jan-12-16|| ||perfidious: <WannaBe> That backdoor cover was one for the ages--saved boatloads for the sports books.|
|Jan-12-16|| ||perfidious: <HMM> I have known my share in any race who were degenerate gamblers--the colour of one's skin hasn't anything to do with it.|
The jones for action does, though.
|Jan-12-16|| ||keypusher: <perfidious: <WannaBe> That backdoor cover was one for the ages--saved boatloads for the sports books.>|
Questions for both of you from a betting ignoramus:
Backdoor cover -- that's Clemson scoring at the end to close within five?
But I don't understand. If you bet on Alabama to cover the spread, and bet on Clemson straight up, wouldn't you lose both bets? Or are the bookies on the other side of both bets?
|Jan-12-16|| ||perfidious: <keypusher....Backdoor cover -- that's Clemson scoring at the end to close within five?>|
<But I don't understand. If you bet on Alabama to cover the spread, and bet on Clemson straight up, wouldn't you lose both bets? Or are the bookies on the other side of both bets?>
Some 78 per cent of action with one book was on Alabama laying 6.5, but another house had 70 per cent of its play on Clemson against the money line, ie, winning outright.
By the bye, my comment
<<WannaBe> That backdoor cover was one for the ages--saved boatloads for the sports books.>
should have been 'saved boatloads for some books', most notably the one mentioned above.
Of course, the backdoor cover by Clemson merely restored the status quo ante, as Clemson had been covering much of the game.
|Jan-12-16|| ||Jim Bartle: <Some 78 per cent of action with one book was on Alabama laying 6.5, but another house had 70 per cent of its play on Clemson against the money line, ie, winning outright.>|
This is what I don't understand.
I thought the bookmakers wanted to get roughly 50-50 bet every time, and simply earn their commissions. They don't want to be betting themselves.
So if 78% of the action is on Alabama, they would make Alabama not a 6.5 point favorite, but a 7.5 point favorite, or a 10 or 15 point favorite until enough people bet on Clemson to bring the two sides to even.
|Jan-12-16|| ||WannaBe: <HeMateMe: Wannabe, are you one of those old Asian guys who bets on everything from when the morning paper will arrive to what time the bus shows up?>|
I do not bet on everything, I just like to follow the action and the ins and outs of sports betting.
http://espn.go.com/chalk/ have some nice information, but the bettor/punter still have to make the decision.
I've done sports betting (mostly at Vegas or now Reno), but do have friends who use app and bet off-shore, and we always discuss the spread what (line) is moving while sitting at the watering hole and shooting the bull.
Last night's game, my friend took Alabama (-6.5) and took the over. He lost the $5 vig (laid two $55 bets).
I go to Off Track Betting for Kentucky Derby, and if the Breeders Cup is in SoCal, I go back and visit the track watch the races in person and always lose.
As I have no idea on how to handicap a horse and there are too many to keep monitoring (unlike NFL or MLB).
|Jan-12-16|| ||thegoodanarchist: Bama won last night because of the difference in the secondaries. Bama's DBs played very well, especially the true Freshman who broke up a TD pass in the 3rd quarter.|
Clemson's secondary had too many breakdowns.
And one more thing, Clemson moved the ball very well with their base offense. Then it seemed every time they got inside the Bama 35, they just abandoned their game plan and started taking shots to the end zone!
After that didn't work, the idiot coaches finally went back to what did work - after squandering 4 or 5 plays (and being forced to kick a FG after the first 3 wasted plays). One of the biggest differences between college and NFL is play calling. NFL coaches stay with what works, until you stop it. So many college coaches shoot themselves in the foot and voluntarily abandon what works in order to try stuff that doesn't work.
It is one of the reasons I rarely watch college football. Idiot coaches with idiot play calling.
|Jan-12-16|| ||thegoodanarchist: <She had to answer a reporter's question during the Packers late season losing streak about whether or not she and Rodgers have sex on game day [might it affect his on field performance?]...Yikes!>|
She doesn't <have> to answer that. The appropriate response (IMO) is to say "This interview is over" and leave.
|Jan-12-16|| ||HeMateMe: TGA--I think she did ignore the question the first time around, said something about "Go find your journalistic morals," and walked away. |
But, the question has surfaced more than once, and she did state that they don't do the bone dance on game days. If you have the league's reigning MVP/QB, and the team is losing, people HAVE to know why. If you're going to hang out in GB with Rodgers, you also get his extended family of 100,000 green and gold fans. Brett and Deana favre embraced it, they were the king and Queen of the city and accepted the loss of some privacy. The fishbowl existence comes with the territory. But that's ok. Most of the fans are housebroken, and they do have great bowling shirts:
A few years ago an O lineman of the Packers was traded to another team. The new city reporters asked him about "The difference between here and Green Bay."
He said "In Green Bay, you're a flashy dresser if you have a lot of bowling shirts."
Soon, Green Bay fans were sending this guy bowling shirts in the mail. He had dozens, at one point, and started handing them out to his new teammates, "They love them."
|Jan-12-16|| ||Bobsterman3000: I had no desire to put any $$ on this Clemson-Alabama tilt... too many variables.|
When I bet football I'm usually <bum hunting> which means looking for sucky teams that are going to get overwhelmed by a hungry, streaking team - Kansas City Chiefs have been the big money maker in that regard for the past 10 weeks since they've played a relatively weak schedule with lots of teams who've already given up for the year.
|Jan-12-16|| ||Shams: <Jim Bartle> <This is what I don't understand.
I thought the bookmakers wanted to get roughly 50-50 bet every time, and simply earn their commissions. They don't want to be betting themselves.|
So if 78% of the action is on Alabama, they would make Alabama not a 6.5 point favorite, but a 7.5 point favorite, or a 10 or 15 point favorite until enough people bet on Clemson to bring the two sides to even.>
The line sure seems like it moves less than it used to. Your question is a good one, or at least one I share. The best guess I have is that there is a lot more sharp money than there used to be and as a consequence of that, the books are reticent to nudge the line for fear of stepping on a land mine.
Super Bowl 48 went off at Denver -2.5 I think, even though (I'd look this up if I knew how) something like 75% of the money was on Denver. The books didn't budge from that line even though it meant hugely lopsided money coming in because they felt that giving Seattle a full field goal would open the flood gates. At any rate that's the story that got out.
And maybe that's not so rare. What did the line go off at last night?
|Jan-12-16|| ||HeMateMe: Arizona opened as 7 1/2 point favorites, now the line seems to be 7. Que dilemma!|
Which Packer team will show up, the inspiring team that beat Washington ("How Aaron got his groove back") or the doormat that got beat in AZ 38-6 just three weeks ago? I don't bet on sports, but if I did I think I would bet on AZ to win by more than a touchdown. Very painful for me, being a lifer Packer fan, but they just got rag-dolled by the Cardinals three weeks ago--I don't think life changes that much in three weeks.
|Jan-12-16|| ||WannaBe: The line started at 6.5 and then 7, then back down to the final of 6.5 before kickoff.|
Some casino(s), instead of moving the points, they move the betting line.
Example, we know the 10% vig, -110 if you want Alabama and giving up the 6.5 pts.
Instead of moving the line to 7, casino will make it -120, or -125 for the 6.5 and make Clemson +100 (or +105) if you take the dog and the 6.5 points.
So that final spread may not be the whole story.
|Jan-12-16|| ||Shams: That's true, they do take extra vig points which seems like cheating. |
<WannaBe>, can you look at a pair of lines like Team A -330/ Team B +260 and instantly tell 1) what the house thinks the true odds are and 2) deriving from that, how much vig they are taking? I get tripped up when the lines stray too far from -110.
|Jan-12-16|| ||WannaBe: <Shams> That's a $0.70 line (Seventy cents), right? House is collecting 70 bucks if the dog wins.|
Example: You bet $100 to collect $360, I bet $330 to collect $430. You win, I lose, house take my 330 pays you 260, keeping 70
I don't know the answer to number 1, what the true odds are. I don't ever remembering seeing odds with that much disparity, maybe a Mike Tyson fight, -1200 and +800 or something like that.
Usually in baseball, it's a twenty cent line, but I've seen higher numbers. Strong starting pitcher vs a late season emergency call up, -275 to +200 or something along those lines.
|Jan-12-16|| ||WannaBe: Alright, the jackpot is so high, even multi-millionaires are buying tickets!!|
|Jan-12-16|| ||WannaBe: http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...|
<Wynn sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that in Vegas alone, an estimated $10 million swung from one side to the other with the late touchdown by the Tigers.>
<Betting website Covers.com said it was the first time in the Nick Saban era that Alabama won a title game without covering the spread.>
|Jan-12-16|| ||thegoodanarchist: <Soon, Green Bay fans were sending this guy bowling shirts in the mail.>|
Great story! Laugh out loud funny.
< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 19 OF 824 ·