< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 368 OF 667 ·
|Apr-11-12|| ||WannaBe: Leyland is obviously too old, Tigers need new/younger blood. Bring in Jack McKeane or Tommy Lasorda!!|
Maybe Connie Mack is still available.
|Apr-12-12|| ||WannaBe: From ESPN: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/p...|
<In a fascinating turn of events, the Rays turned a 2-0 deficit into a 4-2 victory. Since 2009, the Tigers had been 229-1 when leading after eight innings. >
I wonder if the Yankees and M. Rivera can even claim that! WOW!!
|Apr-12-12|| ||WannaBe: And she is engaged to be married, when?!?! http://espn.go.com/college-football...|
|Apr-12-12|| ||keypusher: <In a fascinating turn of events, the Rays turned a 2-0 deficit into a 4-2 victory. Since 2009, the Tigers had been 229-1 when leading after eight innings. >|
That <is> good. But as you might expect, pretty much everyone wins when leading after 8 innings.
<Regardless of the pitching strategy, teams entering the ninth inning with a lead win roughly 95 percent of the time. That was the exact rate in 1901 and that was the rate 100 seasons later. In fact, the rate has varied merely from a high of 96.7 percent in 1909 to a low of 92.5 percent in 1941.>
Presumably a good team like the Tigers would do better. 229-2 is about a 99% success rate -- which is terrific, but a team at the 95% average would win about 220 of 231 games.
|Apr-12-12|| ||Jim Bartle: I'm surprised by the stats showing how often a team leading by one after eight innings wins, something like 85% of the time. |
Still, as great as that 229-1 record is, I doubt that many were one-run leads.
Now I don't disagree with the decision, as I wasn't watching and it's early in the season and not September, but it is quite strange that a starting pitcher with a lead after eight is left in to take a loss.
Bill James ("I'm not worthy, I'm not worthy") once wrote that Nolan Ryan's record of never losing a game when he had a lead after eight meant nothing. He said no manager would let a starter with a lead lose in the ninth. That has to be an exaggeration, but he has a point.
Standard strategy certainly would have been to take Verlander out after he loaded the bases, and certainly after he threw a wild pitch. But other factors beside winning that one game can come into play.
|Apr-12-12|| ||WannaBe: On a similiar note, Jonathan Broxton (ex-Dodgers closer) plunked 2 batters to lose a game. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-b...|
Another news, KC Royal player buys pizza! http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-b...
|Apr-12-12|| ||Jim Bartle: I watched a lot of that KC-Oakland and game, and there was definitely a pro-Francouer group in the rightfield stands, and he was talking to them. Now I know why.|
Official attendance was 12,000. Watching the game I would have guessed 5,000 or less.
There was one pretty funny play. A popup behind first base, not too high. The first baseman got it in his glove but flipped it in the air. The second baseman came over to grab it, but the first baseman chased it, too, and bumped into the second baseman, sending the ball into foul territory and putting the batter on second base.
|Apr-12-12|| ||King Death: <Phony Benoni: Verlander wasn't just tossing a shutout, it was a one-hit shutout--and he had only thrown 81 pitches in eight innings. No-brainer to leave him in....>|
If that game is 9-1 I take him out and let the long man mop up, in that game I'd have let him finish too.
|Apr-12-12|| ||King Death: <keypusher> Maybe 30 years ago somebody came up with that statistic and was trying to use it as proof that the Yankees were a "lockdown" team. Then a little research was done and folks realized that the Yankees were no better than anybody else when it came to protecting those late leads. Now it's just another number.|
|Apr-12-12|| ||WannaBe: Interesting history behind the term "rubber game/match", I am on my cell, and can't copy/paste well. Will post links later.|
|Apr-12-12|| ||Jim Bartle: I think Leyland's message to Verlander, in the first week of the season, was "I have confidence in you, I'm not taking you out at the first sign of trouble." Probably valuable over a long season, worth risking one loss.|
The role of the ace reliever has changed so much over the years. Now it's sort of, ninth-inning only, and only with the lead in order not to overuse the closer.
What will the next big change be? I predict the closer will start to be used in the seventh or eighth as well as the ninth, still just for an inning or so, but when the situation seems most critical.
|Apr-12-12|| ||Jim Bartle: Another strategy I question is this idea that with a man on second and no outs, the next batter should give himself up (hit to the right side) to get the runner to third. I can see trying not to pull the ball (righties) or definitely trying to pull (lefties), but the next batter should definitely be trying to get on base. |
This is assuming it's not really late in the game and that one run is obviously a key to winning or losing.
|Apr-12-12|| ||King Death: <Jim Bartle> You're right and it's so that the closer can be in those save situations and post big numbers for his next contract. In the same way a lot of hitters won't sign deals to play in places like Seattle because of its rep as a pitcher's park, they don't want to hit .240 and go out looking for a job after.|
|Apr-12-12|| ||Jim Bartle: San Diego is another stadium where hitting is really tough. |
I'm sure lots of other managers and GMs took this into account years earlier, but Whitey Herzog had to be one of the first to take ballparks into account. He traded for John Tudor despite his rather average stats, because he knew he was a lefthander who'd done OK,not terrible, pitching for Boston at Fenway for several years. And he pitched great for St. Louis.
|Apr-12-12|| ||Jim Bartle: Speaking of hitting conditions, I sat in the rightfield bleachers at Candlestick before it was enclose with the double deck, and saw quite a few rockets to leftfield seem to just hit a wall and start going up instead of out. |
And to rightfield as well. I clearly remember McCovey coming up with a man on and the Giants a run behind in the ninth. Hit a tremendous blast to right, really high, which we figured would land in the parking lot. Frank Robinson just stood waiting and waiting and trimming his fingernails, his back against the fence, and finally calmly caught the ball.
I also saw McCovey hit a grand slam on a high pop that the first baseman started out running after it was so shallow, so the wind could cut both ways.
|Apr-12-12|| ||WannaBe: Three Words, <Plastic Squeeze Bottle>, ketchup, mustard, relish, soy-sauce, MSG, mayo, you name it!!|
But they'd probably suffer paper cuts just filling out the daily line-up card too.
|Apr-13-12|| ||King Death: <Jim Bartle> Putting Tudor in a bigger ball park with a team that could play defense behind him and letting him just throw strikes had to be better than Boston which was an average team then and not too hot defensively.|
|Apr-13-12|| ||playground player: Didn't <Phony Benoni> do some research last year that proved that late-inning leads generally protect themselves?|
|Apr-13-12|| ||WannaBe: Redefines 'Flame Thrower'.
|Apr-14-12|| ||Jim Bartle: Tampa Bay has a pitcher named Burke Badenhop. He really should be an infielder, and for a team which plays on real grass.|
|Apr-16-12|| ||WannaBe: Saw this tonight on ESPN SportsCenter:
Dodgers are 9-1, best start since 1988, the magical World Series Season.
Dodgers are also 8-1 on Jackie Robinson Day.
Which only means, we will reach the All-Star break with a 72-2 record. Do the math, the proof is in the putty-cat!
|Apr-16-12|| ||WannaBe: Welcome to NY, kiddo, and that is before you even taken a practice snap!|
|Apr-16-12|| ||WannaBe: http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/stor...|
You lucky, you didn't have to play against Bill Laimbeer, you'd need dental oral surgery.
|Apr-16-12|| ||playground player: <WannaBe> As someone who actually did need oral surgery as a result of playing basketball against a man who was doing a rather good imitation of Laimbeer, your kibitz evokes unhappy memories! My man was a pastor, by the way.|
|Apr-16-12|| ||Jim Bartle: Funny that the person commenting on hard fouls in the video above the article ws Kurt Rambis. He was probably the foulee in perhaps the most famous hard foul in history, taken down hard by Kevin McHale in the 84 Finals. That play has come to symbolize how the gritty Celts managed to beat the flashy Lakers that year.|
The other really famous takedown, that I remember was of Bird by Laimbeer in the East finals sometime in the late 80s.
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