< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 171 OF 171 ·
|Jun-08-15|| ||centralfiles: even/even/even is +100% even the others are only +33% odd|
|Jun-08-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: Which is an argument (a flawed one, incidentally) that you have a 50% chance of picking "even" and a 50% chance of picking "odd" if you pick randomly... not that you have a 50% chance of picking "B/C = even/even" and a 50% chance of picking "B/C = odd/odd" if you pick randomly.|
|Jun-08-15|| ||centralfiles: Well you assumed that all four possibilities are equal which isn't accurate.|
The true odds should be something like 1/3^n in favor of even where n is the sample number.
I was just giving a brain teaser (your explanation cannot be explained by the average person).
BTW I never meant it to be for all 50 games the top 10 are just fine but the tourney is over anyhow maybe next time.
|Jun-09-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <centralfiles: Well you assumed that all four possibilities are equal which isn't accurate.|
The true odds should be something like 1/3^n in favor of even where n is the sample number.>
|Jun-14-15|| ||WinKing: Coming up the 3rd Norway Chess 2015 Tournament - http://2015.norwaychess.com/superto...|
The tournament runs from June 15th-26th, 2015.
< Prediction Contests: (Win virtual medals - Gold, Silver & Bronze) >
User: YouRang - Predict the
result 1-0, 1/2, or 0-1 (3 categories to medal in)
lostemperor chessforum - Predict the order the
players will finish. (3 categories to medal in)
User: OhioChessFan - Predict
the result 1-0, 1/2, or 0-1 & the number of moves for each game.
(4 categories to medal in)
As of this posting I know <lostemperor>'s & <chessmoron>'s contests
will be active. I have not heard from <YouRang> yet so I am not
sure about his contest.
Also don't forget about <chessgames> ChessBookie game for this event.
He can't wait to take some or all of your chessbucks. ;)
Don't miss out on the fun for this Super Tournament!
|Jun-29-15|| ||Penguincw: Hi <Switch>. Just dropping by to wish you a Happy Birthday (or non-Birthday). :)|
P.S. Any reason why you only participated for 2 rounds at <cm>'s contest?
|Jun-30-15|| ||moronovich: Happy Birthday <Switch> !|
Just 2 days before my wife ;)
|Jun-30-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <Penguincw> <moronovich> Thanks for the non-birthday wishes!|
<Penguincw> I guess I've just become forgetful... too many birthdays will do that to you :)
|Jun-30-15|| ||Alien Math: <SwitchingQuylthulg> Hope your day are well ^.^|
|Jun-30-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <Alien Math> Thanks :)|
Happy non-birthday to all of you!
|Jun-30-15|| ||moronovich: Thanks <Switch>> !|
I will enjoy my non-birthday ;)
with many more to come- big smiley-
|Jul-06-15|| ||Penguincw: Happy non-birthday again! :)
Nice job with running the leg, as you improved all your totals from last time.
Good luck in the Summer Leg! I don't want to jinx anything, but I will warn you with the following: <wordfunph> and <Annie K.> both finished in <last> place in the leg following their trial. :o
|Jul-06-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <Penguincw> I think being Bookie has actually made me better at the game than I was before. Let's hope that will happen to you as well :) |
But placing last is always an option. I'm much more likely to place last than 11th; if I place 11th, something's gone badly wrong ;-)
Good luck for the Summer Leg! Take your time testing things; there's no hurry. Remember the testing period is not a mini-competition; its only purpose is to give you time to learn the ropes, get n00b mistakes out of your system and familiarize yourself with all aspects of the Bookie interface. You can - indeed, probably should - bet on everything from all of your own account(s) to make sure things work as you intended :-)
|Jul-06-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <Nice job with running the leg, as you improved all your totals from last time.>|
Unfortunately, that's not quite true. Firstly, this leg was quite a bit longer than my previous leg (which was well under 3 months); statistics lie. Secondly, numbers like "total juice" and "total wagered" are fairly meaningless; if they're higher than last time, it's not a bad sign, but too many conclusions shouldn't be drawn from it. ("Total # of events" is even less meaningful - I could spam the game with markets to push up that number, and that would detract from the fun, not add to it. With markets, it's not quantity that matters, but quality - and if you open too many markets, even quality markets, people won't have enough money to bet on all of them.)
"Total # of players" is a more meaningful number, though; the Bookie game needs players to stay alive (and Chessgames needs involved users to stay alive). And despite the increased length, that number went down from my previous leg.
|Jul-06-15|| ||Annie K.: If *I* place 11th, somebody gets disqualified... :s
<Penguincw> the reason experienced Bookies are either very high up or very low down, is that we get to see close up how useless it is to be in the middle, so we play big. Sometimes it will work, and sometimes it won't. :)
<Switch> great job, never mind the stats! ;)
|Jul-06-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <Annie> Nice work with the Bookie Cheat Sheet! :)|
|Jul-06-15|| ||Annie K.: <Switch> thanks, nice work yourself with the hyphen code idea, which was yours. I'd like to add some more examples to that sheet, especially ideas for exotic bets, for when pairings are published too late for regular bets. Any exotics you recommend? :)|
|Jul-06-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <Annie> Hmm... with no pairings I'd be hesitant to put up any single-round bets at all (team events being an exception, of course). Multi-round bets are another matter.|
In theory, any single-round exotic that's been used in a team event (and doesn't involve the team aspect) should also work in an open with no pairings; but in practice most of these are of the "will there be a game/no games/at least N games with this characteristic?" type (n-move game, game with no doubled pawns etc.), which means you have to be sure you'll get reliable PGN for every game involved. Unfortunately, that's often a problem in opens when you get to the lower boards.
A more reliable option for opens would be multi-round bets involving a certain player or group of players and their results (will <Annie> win at least one game in this tournament? Will <Annie>'s rating go up or down?). I can't think of any one-round bets of that type that would work sans pairings; "White vs Black", for instance, depends too much on the relevant pairings, even with a very large number of games.
With RRs and DRRs, most "blind" bets that work in either team events or opens still work (and getting reliable PGN for every game is <usually> not an issue with high-profile RRs/DRRs). One note is that bets based on opening moves work better in RRs and DRRs; e.g. a "Tournament Walrus Special" for a RR/DRR would work quite well with no pairings, but a "Round 1 Walrus Special" for an open with no pairings wouldn't work nearly as well.
The downside with multi-round and other long-term bets is that if you open too many of them, people won't have any chessbucks left for single-round bets.
In any case, we should let <Penguincw> use his own imagination - I'm sure he'll come up with great ideas we would never have thought of :)
|Jul-07-15|| ||Annie K.: Thanks, <Switch>, good feedback. Yeah, I'm sure <Penguin> will be fine too, but it should be reassuring for any future new Bookie to have an idea or two to fall back on at hand, when the crowd is clamoring for bets and those darn organizers still didn't publish any pairings, just in case. ;s|
At the moment, my idea is to put up something like 'What first move (or even opening) will (famous player) X play in his first game with White' - which can then be promised to be paid off after Round 2 at the latest.
This call for ideas is open to all, actually, both us experienced Bookies, or just anybody who wants to pitch in - better than leaving things to a last minute when this situation actually happens! :)
|Jul-08-15|| ||Penguincw: (keep talking guys, I'm reading your conversation!)
< SwitchingQuylthulg: <Penguincw> Tip: if you link to a post (e.g. Chessgames Bookie chessforum) and that link has "kpage" in it, it will only work for people with ignore lists similar to yours. (The link above is the link from Friendly Tournament: WINNER - if I click it, it leads me to a blank page, not your post.) >|
Wow, never knew that. I fixed it (I think). Thanks!
< Links without "kpage" in them (e.g. Chessgames Bookie chessforum (kibitz #8656)) will work for everybody, regardless of who they have on their ignore lists. There are several ways of getting such links; right-clicking the post's timestamp and selecting "copy link" is the simplest way. >
I would use the default link, but I don't like how it displays the kibitz number. However, with HTMLs, I think it's fine.
Oh, and regarding the ChessBookie game itself. Do refunded bets help improve your credit rating?
|Jul-08-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <Penguincw> I think refunded bets do improve one's credit rating, but I'm not 100% sure. If you need to know, you can test it by repeatedly refunding your own max-bets :)|
On a similar note, I once asked Daniel Freeman if a refunded bet would make a player eligible for the Pay Day bonus; he <thought> the answer was "yes", and we both agreed it ought to be "yes", but (at least at that point) he wasn't completely sure whether it actually worked that way.
<I would use the default link, but I don't like how it displays the kibitz number. However, with HTMLs, I think it's fine.>
Yes, the kibitz numbers are a bit ugly; <zanzibar> requested them this January, they weren't displayed before that.
|Jul-12-15|| ||Penguincw: Hi <Switch>. Firstly, thanks for your help and advice. :)|
I have some more questions. Firstly, for a draw no-bet, if the game is drawn, do you refund Lines 1 and 2, or do you delete the whole bet? Is there a difference?
Also, how do you proceed with being Bookie for a leg? Do you have all easy bets, all difficult bets, all interesting bets, some combination, what?
This next question is another question that I'm probably going to figure on my own (but will ask anyway). How do you advertise the game? Should I be advertising (it's free).
|Jul-12-15|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <Penguincw> Taking those one by one:|
<I have some more questions. Firstly, for a draw no-bet, if the game is drawn, do you refund Lines 1 and 2, or do you delete the whole bet? Is there a difference?>
I refunded both lines. I'm not sure if it's even possible to delete the bet at that point.
<Also, how do you proceed with being Bookie for a leg? Do you have all easy bets, all difficult bets, all interesting bets, some combination, what?>
Rule 3: <there is no such thing as an easy bet>.
There are bets with very likely winners, but they aren't in any way <easy> bets; the players aren't trying to predict the outcome, they're trying to beat the odds. A bet where the odds are easy to estimate could be described as "easy", but the odds are never as easy to estimate as you'd think; there's always some wrinkle. (Your Coin Flip bet might be an exception to this.)
By that definition, a "difficult" bet is not one where the winner is completely unpredictable, but one where the odds are very hard to estimate accurately. This kind of bet is fun (not least for the Bookie), but it has to be done the right way; if people realize they don't have a clue about the odds, they're simply not going to bet, or will only place very small bets.
Accordingly, a good "difficult" bet is one where the odds are incredibly difficult to estimate accurately, but don't <look> the part - one where people think they know what will happen, even though they actually don't.
One bet of this type I particularly liked was the Clean Sweep Special from the 2014 Olympiad: will more teams have a perfect 8-0 score after 2 rounds in the open section or the women's section? People thought "open" was a sure winner because it had a big lead after round 1, but it didn't work that way at all. But bets like that should be used very sparingly; the game is supposed to be fun for all players, not a "can the Bookie outsmart everybody?" show.
A more typical and reusable example of a "difficult" bet would be any game that involves high rating differences (>100 points), or one famous player and one relatively unknown player.
In any case, <some combination of different types of bet> is almost definitely the best option. Different people like different types of bets (and many like variety), so we should give them different types of bets, both in terms of "easy"/"difficult" and "normal"/"unusual". "Normal" bets (X vs Y, Daily Double, Pick Three) should be the most common, but exotic ("unusual") bets also have their place.
Try things out and see what people like. Not every bet has to be popular - indeed, it's a bad idea to only use popular bets, as there should be something in the game for <everybody> and not just the majority. But popular bets should be used more often than unpopular bets.
I generally limited myself to 2 (rarely 3) "unusual" bets per round; I didn't use very many truly <weird> bets, and never more than one per round. The exception was Exotic Day (<wordfunph>'s birthday, April 24), with five unusual bets, all on the weirder-than-normal side.
You won't get <wordfunph>'s birthday, of course; you'll get <Annie>'s birthday on July 26. Considering the difference between her approach and <wordfunph>'s, maybe that could be No Exotics Day :-)
<This next question is another question that I'm probably going to figure on my own (but will ask anyway). How do you advertise the game? Should I be advertising (it's free).>
I think advertising is the area where you can set yourself apart from all previous Bookies and be unquestionably the best yet. I posted a ton about the Bookie game in tournament forums, which is a good way of advertising it to Chessgames users; this is almost certainly the main reason my legs had more participants than <wordfunph>'s and <Annie>'s legs. But no one has really taken Bookie advertising outside chessgames.com yet; there's a lot of untapped potential in social media marketing and advertising the Bookie game on other chess sites. If you tap that potential, and get new people to join Chessgames so they can play the Bookie game, you'll be a hero.
|Jul-12-15|| ||Annie K.: You can't delete a bet once it has any c$ in it. So you refund all lines, and then the bet is counted as "cancelled". |
Personally, I like to combine difficulty levels, and even post some totally certain bets now and then (remember that "epic game" bet, over a large and long open?), to keep players paying attention. ;p
Harder bets are good too. I really liked <wordfunph>'s idea of breaking up the most likely result with an over/under clause (makes the bet much more difficult to call, and attracts a bigger pool), but would always offer some simple "classic" bets as well.
We don't have to be all the same, though, you can find your own favorite balance. And flavor with exotics according to taste. :)
Advertising is easiest if <cg> put up a tournament forum a few days in advance. Otherwise, you can advertise on player pages, in the Bookie forum, or not at all - not rules there either.
|Jul-12-15|| ||Annie K.: Cross post, <Switch>. Heh. ;)|
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