< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 147 OF 147 ·
|Sep-08-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: Aw :(
But at least you're still making the right bets, it's just that the results are wrong.
|Sep-08-14|| ||dakgootje: Yeah.. well, on a grand scale it was about time I had a losing day ;)|
And you know, I lost a bit less than 1k - so nothing really to worry about.
I just should not make a habit of this losing-business.
|Sep-09-14|| ||dakgootje: Blugh. Took some chances - but forgot to increase my D-D bet, which would have won.|
So a lot happened, but a <100 c$ profit.
Ah well, better than yoyoing down..
|Sep-09-14|| ||Annie K.: Hmmm... sounds familiar! ;s
Wish we could have a bet on whether cg will ever learn to spell dakkie's name... ;)
|Sep-09-14|| ||dakgootje: Whahahaha - probably not ^^
But it's cute ;D
|Sep-09-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: :)
The dwarf pirate approach: if it's worth betting, it's worth overbetting.
|Sep-10-14|| ||dakgootje: Got to use those chessbucks! ^^
Notice I missed the last round in the Spanish league though. No wonder when they start the round before dawn.
|Sep-11-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: A puzzle :)
click for larger view
White to play. Find the simplest win.
|Sep-11-14|| ||dakgootje: Man, I wanted to play Rxd5, which is obvious, forced, therefore easy to calculate - and wins with a bit of technique. I thought.|
Until I realized 1. Rxd5 Rf1+ 2. Bxf1 Qxf1+ 3. Qg1 Qf3+ 4. Qg2 there is ..Qxg2 5. Kxg2 Nf4 and black wins. Oops.
I don't know man, normally I'd just play 1. Kg1, be done with a large part of blacks counterplay - and probably with my own advantage :P
Hold on.. just realized I discarded 1. Bxd5 on illegal grounds. Doesn't that just win very quickly in all variations? I mean, 1. ..Qxd5 2. Rxd5 and good luck black. Queen down for a knight with no further compensation. And if 1. ..Rf1+ 2. Kg2.. ahhh right, so there's Nf4 [and/or Nh4]. Yup, that puts an end to that. With Nf4, black can always take on d5, and maybe more.
So with 1. ..Rf1+ 2. Qg1 we can enter the fairly forced 2. ..Rxg1 3. Kxg1 Qxd5 4. Rxd5 and we are up R vs N, which is okay.. but blacks Qside pawns are weakish, so I guess we should be okay.. Yeah. 4. ..b4 5. axb4 axb4 6. cxb4 and that should be enough.
And of course, there's 1. ..Rf1+ 2. Rxf1 Qxd5 3. Qf3.. And I guess 3. ..Qxf3 4. Rxf3 Nxe5 5. Rf5 Nd3 6. Rxb5 a4.. and black can wiggle a bit, but white should have enough.. Really not easy though. Oh, right, and there might be 3. ..Qxe5. That complicates further.
Heh, neither is really convincing. But I suppose the best line has been 1. Bxd5 Rf1 2. Qg1 Rxg1 3. Kxg1 Qxd5 4. Rxd5 b4 5. axb4 axb4 6. cxb4 and white wins. Perhaps black can improve ..b4 and further, but that should be lost already. heh. I suppose that wins - and it seems relatively forced.. So I guess it should be the simplest.
|Sep-11-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: Yup, you got it :)|
|Sep-11-14|| ||centralfiles: I was of the unlearned opinion that overbetting erases any gains.
if you find great odds and bet it all the way up to even your left with an even bet net gain=0.
its somewhere in middle where you get the most out of the odds.|
|Sep-12-14|| ||dakgootje: No worries <cf> - it all won't make much of a differece.|
There is some optimum amount, above which your value would decrease - so in general you indeed shouldn't overbet. Especially when the line closes in a few minutes and they won't settle much further. I simply think there are some [read: far from all] cases whereby overbetting can be a valid strategy.
But, as I said, it doesn't make a big difference. And for that matter it is not the reason why I am at 10k+. That's mainly caused by a few good bets - and a lot of luck ^_^
|Sep-12-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: If you're lucky, overbetting is a very valid strategy indeed. You're going to win anyway, so you might as well win big :)|
|Sep-13-14|| ||dakgootje: Oh look, the only 2 Ukranians draw on move-12 - gifting one of them, the tournament leader, more time to rest for the last round.|
Had I been less naive, I might have seen it coming.
|Sep-15-14|| ||dakgootje: Long-shot day today.
So I'll probably make a loss - but who knows.. Might get lucky ;)
|Sep-15-14|| ||dakgootje: Yeah.. So Paco's position looks really uncomfortable right out of the opening.|
I might break even, but.. this round is no fun.
|Sep-15-14|| ||centralfiles: if you took long shot this round you lost but the good news is i didnt win either.|
|Sep-15-14|| ||dakgootje: Yeah, little over 1k loss.
Suited the rest of the day - so the next rounds I simply won't watch. Saves a lot of time.
It's a steady yoyo-down phase, but luckily the losses aren't too massive.
|Sep-15-14|| ||centralfiles: weve lost a combined 6000+ cbs|
|Sep-16-14|| ||dakgootje: Right - better luck today.
Man, if that Draw-Draw hits, then I'm going to sit the next few rounds out in disgust.
|Sep-16-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <dakkie> Good luck!|
I think sitting out the <last> few rounds would have been a better strategy, though :s
|Sep-16-14|| ||dakgootje: I knoww... my hit-percentage over the last rounds has been absolutely horrendous.|
Seems Paco is messing it up again though. Today I can live with that. If he does lose, then the worst case scenario is -500 or something.
Which would still be totally uncool - but generally worst case scenarios are.. worse.
|Sep-16-14|| ||dakgootje: Alright, so Paco loses indeed - and Aronian draws Anand.|
I have no problems living with that result. I should make roughly an 1.5k profit, so that regains a fair share of my losses over these previous few rounds.
|Sep-16-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: Totally not uncool :)|
|Sep-16-14|| ||centralfiles: i continued my losing streak :(|
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