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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen May-22-13
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION GAME FORUM>

Predict the final standings of tournaments.

People were predicting the outcome of tournaments. I then developed a simple but new system to calculate all standings of the tournament participants into a prediction ranking.

In progress: Norway tournament May 7
http://norwaychess.com/en/supertour...

Here an example on how to post your predictions:

1. Carlsen
2. Aronian
3. Radjabov
4. Anand
4. Karjakin
6. Topalov
6. Nakamura
6. Svidler
6. Hao
10. Hammer

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants. This is invented by YouRang

There are virtual-contestants <ELO>, the rating order and <CHESSBOOKIE>, the Chess Bookie game odds order here.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers. Don't miss his YouRang chessforum game results prediction contest during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

From a KKKKKKKKQR medalist there.

(and counting ;))

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Cheers.

***

<HALL <OF> FAME>

~~~~

KKKKKQQQRRYouRang
KKKKKQQRRRRWannaBe

~~~~~~

KKKKQQRSwitchingQuylthulg
KKKKQRRRRWannaBe

~~~~
KKKQQQRAurora
KKKQRcromat
KKKQRsuenteus po 147
~~~~

KKQQQRpercyblakeney
KKQQRRRrogge
KKQRRRRchessmoron
KKQRRRlostemperor
KKQRRRyalie
KKQRRagh
KKQREzzy
KKQWinKing
KKSloVice
KKpositionalgenius
KKamadeus

~~~~

KQRDiademas
KQWhere is my mind
KQRahmadov
KQAppaz
KQRCHESSBOOKIE
KRnimh
KRMontreal1666
KRTroewa

~~~~

KGolden Executive
KTwinlark
KPenguincw
KNGambit
Kbenjinathan
KDCP23
Kfirebyrd
Kkellmano
KStonehenge
Kcu8sfan
Klarrewl
Kbabakova
Kdjmercury
Kmikejaqua
KJoshka,
KSnoopDogg
KLike a GM

K Gold
Q Silver
R Bronze

>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 5096 times to chessgames   [less...]
   May-21-13 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Good idea <Winking> though I do not understand your second comment: < Ok you stating that <lostemperor> should help in the future.>?
 
   May-18-13 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Thanks <chessmoron> and <Elvis>. It was fun as always. Also <WinKing> for helping checking results B-)
 
   May-18-13 YouRang chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Thanks <YouRang>! Another two Bronze to my tally. Congrats to all winners and especially <OhioChessFan> but also <poorpatzer> who were pretty impressive!:)
 
   May-18-13 Norway Chess Tournament (2013) (replies)
 
lostemperor: <anandrulez> that commentator is the Dutch editor (in chief) of New in Chess Dirk-Jan ten Geuzendam (very hard to pronounce correctly as in Euwe). He is very well known (to the chess experts) for his interviews of all major players from Botvinnik to Carlsen. His most ...
 
   May-17-13 Carlsen vs Wang Hao, 2013 (replies)
 
lostemperor: Wow, what a great performance of Wang Hao against Carlsen to beat him in the endgame what is Carlsen specialty. A historical game also afer being the first Chinese beating the World Champion Anand in January now also the first Chinese to beat the world number one/world's record ...
 
   Apr-01-13 World Championship Candidates (2013) (replies)
 
lostemperor: How about this: Ivanchuk will blunder but only after Carlsen has no slim winning chances anymore.
 
   Feb-26-13 WinKing chessforum (replies)
 
...
 
   Jan-27-13 Wang Hao vs Anand, 2013 (replies)
 
lostemperor: For the record, the first Chinese to beat the reigning Classical World Chess Champion if I am not mistaken!
 
   Jan-27-13 Tata Steel (2013) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Besides historical performances of Carlsen, also of Wang Hao beating Anand. The first Chinese to beat the reigning Classical World Chess Champion I suppose .. Just for the record.
 
   Jan-27-13 A Giri vs Carlsen, 2013 (replies)
 
lostemperor: 23... Be6 a dubious move but with a brilliant fighting idea. If Carlsen wins this game it is because of this move and if he loses also!
 
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   Jun-27-07 Mamedyarov vs Kramnik, 2007
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   Jun-04-07 Candidates Match: Grischuk-Malakhov (2007)
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   Apr-04-07 Pia Cramling (replies)
   Mar-17-07 16th Amber Tournament (Blindfold) (2007) (replies)
   Mar-03-07 Kasparov vs Adams, 1988 (replies)
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   Feb-04-07 TrueBlue chessforum (replies)
   Feb-03-07 David Bronstein (replies)
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   Jan-28-07 Radjabov vs Topalov, 2007 (replies)
   Jan-27-07 Topalov vs Kramnik, 2007 (replies)
   Jan-24-07 Topalov vs Carlsen, 2007 (replies)
   Jan-20-07 Ponomariov vs Topalov, 2007 (replies)
   Jan-10-07 cu8sfan chessforum (replies)
   Nov-16-06 Emanuel Lasker (replies)
   Nov-14-06 Tarrasch vs Lasker, 1908 (replies)
   Nov-12-06 Lasker vs Marshall, 1904 (replies)
   Nov-05-06 Arianne Caoili (replies)
   Nov-05-06 V Zurakhov vs Tolush, 1956 (replies)
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   Oct-29-06 Mamedyarov vs I Sokolov, 2006 (replies)
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   Oct-13-06 Kramnik vs Topalov, 2006 (replies)
   Oct-12-06 Kramnik vs Topalov, 2006 (replies)
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   Oct-02-05 Judit Polgar vs Kasimdzhanov, 2005 (replies)
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   Jul-12-05 Van Wely vs Svidler, 2005 (replies)
   Jul-10-05 Leko vs Van Wely, 2005 (replies)
   Jul-07-05 Henry Edward Bird (replies)
   Jul-06-05 Hydra vs Adams, 2005 (replies)
   Jul-04-05 Zhaoqin Peng (replies)
   Jul-02-05 Adams vs Hydra, 2005 (replies)
   Jul-01-05 Hydra vs Adams, 2005 (replies)
   Jun-30-05 Chess Genius vs Kasparov, 1994 (replies)
   Jun-29-05 Kasparov vs Chess Genius, 1994 (replies)
   Jun-28-05 Hydra vs Adams, 2005 (replies)
   Jun-27-05 Adams vs Hydra Match (2005) (replies)
   Jun-25-05 Karpov vs Kasparov, 1985 (replies)
   Jun-23-05 Adams vs Hydra, 2005 (replies)
   Jun-11-05 Wilhelm Steinitz (replies)
   Jun-10-05 Hydra vs A Nickel, 2004 (replies)
   Jun-01-05 Tim Krabbe (replies)
   May-26-05 L A Tan vs Smyslov, 1973 (replies)
   May-26-05 Kramnik vs Topalov, 2005 (replies)
   May-25-05 Alexandra Kosteniuk (replies)
   May-24-05 MTel Masters (2005) (replies)
   May-21-05 Topalov vs Ponomariov, 2005 (replies)
   May-20-05 Topalov vs Judit Polgar, 2005 (replies)
   May-18-05 Judit Polgar vs Adams, 2005 (replies)
   May-17-05 Murray Campbell (replies)
   May-16-05 Anand vs Adams, 2005 (replies)
   May-06-05 Karpov vs Judit Polgar, 1999 (replies)
   Apr-20-05 Bronstein vs REBEL, 1990 (replies)
   Apr-19-05 John Pope (replies)
   Apr-19-05 Boris Spassky (replies)
   Apr-18-05 I Hausner vs Zsuzsa Polgar, 1983 (replies)
   Mar-23-05 Peter Leko (replies)
   Mar-22-05 14th Amber Tournament: Blindfold (2005) (replies)
   Mar-19-05 14th Amber Tournament: Rapid (2005) (replies)
   Mar-17-05 Topalov vs Kasparov, 2005 (replies)
   Mar-16-05 XXII Torneo Ciudad de Linares (2005) (replies)
   Mar-16-05 Maurice Ashley (replies)
   Mar-09-05 Kasparov vs Anand, 2005 (replies)
   Mar-08-05 Adams vs Kasparov, 2005 (replies)
   Mar-06-05 Leko vs Topalov, 2005 (replies)
   Mar-06-05 Kasimdzhanov vs Anand, 2005 (replies)
   Mar-05-05 Kasparov vs Vallejo-Pons, 2005 (replies)
   Mar-04-05 Kasimdzhanov vs Kasparov, 2005 (replies)
   Mar-03-05 Kasparov vs Leko, 2005 (replies)
   Mar-02-05 Aung Myo Hlaing Aung Aung (replies)
   Mar-02-05 Kasparov vs Lautier, 1995 (replies)
   Mar-02-05 Kasparov vs Topalov, 2005 (replies)
   Feb-28-05 Anand vs Kasparov, 2005 (replies)
   Feb-27-05 Kasparov vs Adams, 2005 (replies)
   Feb-26-05 Anand vs Kasimdzhanov, 2005 (replies)
   Feb-25-05 Leko vs Anand, 2005 (replies)
   Feb-24-05 Anand vs Topalov, 2005 (replies)
   Feb-23-05 Leko vs Kasparov, 2005 (replies)
   Feb-19-05 Corus Chess Tournament (2005) (replies)
   Feb-04-05 Zurab Azmaiparashvili (replies)
   Jan-30-05 I Sokolov vs Anand, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-30-05 Leko vs Judit Polgar, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-30-05 Leko vs L Bruzon, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-29-05 Alexey Shirov (replies)
   Jan-29-05 Topalov vs Leko, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-27-05 L Bruzon vs I Sokolov, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-26-05 Anatoly Karpov (replies)
   Jan-26-05 T C Fox vs Timman, 1970 (replies)
   Jan-25-05 I Sokolov vs Morozevich, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-25-05 Timman vs Polugaevsky, 1983 (replies)
   Jan-24-05 Adams vs Svidler, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-24-05 Mamedyarov vs L Bruzon, 2004
   Jan-23-05 Beliavsky vs L Bruzon, 2004 (replies)
   Jan-22-05 L Bruzon vs Anand, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-22-05 Morozevich vs L Bruzon, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-21-05 L Bruzon vs Short, 2005
   Jan-20-05 T Barendse vs Bosboom-Lanchava, 2004 (replies)
   Jan-17-05 Drammen International Chess Festival (2004) (replies)
   Jan-16-05 Kramnik vs Topalov, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-15-05 Judit Polgar vs Svidler, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-14-05 Indochess Man vs Machine (2005) (replies)
   Jan-09-05 Deep Junior (Computer) (replies)
   Jan-04-05 Carlsen vs Shirov, 2005 (replies)
   Jan-02-05 Kasparov vs Topalov, 1999 (replies)
   Dec-29-04 Utut Adianto (replies)
   Dec-28-04 Jan Hein Donner (replies)
   Dec-26-04 Santa (replies)
   Dec-23-04 Mikhail Tal (replies)
   Dec-15-04 M Basman vs Smyslov, 1968 (replies)
   Dec-12-04 G Timoshenko vs R Beer, 1997 (replies)
   Dec-11-04 Nakamura vs Karjakin, 2004 (replies)
   Nov-24-04 Karpov vs Kasparov, 1986 (replies)
   Nov-24-04 Russian Championships 2004 (2004) (replies)
   Nov-16-04 Julio Ernesto Granda-Zuniga (replies)
   Nov-15-04 Paul Michel (replies)
   Nov-13-04 Rustam Kasimdzhanov (replies)
   Nov-10-04 Kramnik vs Kasparov, 2000 (replies)
   Nov-06-04 Karpov vs Keene, 1977 (replies)
   Oct-26-04 36th Olympiad (2004) (replies)
   Oct-21-04 Kramnik vs Leko, 2004 (replies)
   Oct-19-04 Zsofia Polgar vs Palatnik, 1989 (replies)
   Oct-17-04 Ivan Sokolov (replies)
   Oct-16-04 Leko vs Kramnik, 2004 (replies)
   Oct-14-04 Kramnik vs Leko, 2004 (replies)
   Oct-12-04 Leko vs Kramnik, 2004 (replies)
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

NORWAY STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 141 OF 141 ·  Later Kibitzing>
May-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  King Sacrificer: <lostemperor> Thanks for the hospitality! :)

Congrats to medal winners and big thanks to organizers. Next time i will study more before making predictions. This game is no joke. What was i thinking when putting Hammer over Karjakin?

May-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <King Sacrificer> putting Hammer over Karjakin was was daring alright!;)
May-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  LucB: Thanks for organizing this, and for tabulating all the data.. it was fun!..

<lostemperor:>

<Does anyone know the agenda of top tournaments for this year?>

If no one has answered, the site http://www.2700chess.com has the list of the upcoming events (if that's what you mean..). They are below the rating list.

May-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: <lostemperor> Thank you for hosting and your time tabulating the results.

Once again, great fun, you doing Dortmund??

May-18-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <lostemperor>

Thanks for you effort in running a very interesting comp.

May-19-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  Golden Executive: Thanks <lostemperor> for hosting and thanks <YouRang> & <WinKing> for your comments.Much appreciated.

Congratulations to all the medal winners !

May-20-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: However, I do notice a remarkable feat in the Pair betting this time, that it was possible to put Hammer first and Carlsen last, and predict everone in reverse rating order. So the player with lowest rating on top and the highest rating at the bottom. The reverse order would have won the pair betting ranker:)

Virtual contestant <REVERSE> the reverse rating order

1. hammer
2. hao
3. Radjabov
4. karjakin
5. svidler
6. nakamura
7. anand
8. topalov
9. aronian
10. carlsen

Virtual Pair Betting Ranker

Earnings,UserID

$104.75,REVERSE
$8.13,SwitchingQuylthulg
$7.46,WinKing
~~~~
$5.76,twinlark
$-0.26,suenteus po 147
$-0.46,Golden Executive
$-1.51,OhioChessFan
$-2.88,Diademas
$-3.04,fgh
$-3.65,LucB
$-4.09,crazybird
$-7.81,Ezzy
$-8.02,WannaBe
$-8.28,isemeria
$-9.32,YouRang
$-9.34,chessmoron
$-11.09,wtwz
$-12.40,MarbleSkull
$-12.84,Aurora
$-15.10,King Sacrificer
$-16.00,lostemperor

Large Payoff Pair results:

Payoff,Pair result,Winners

$21.00,Aronian-equal-Svidler, SwitchingQuylthulg

$21.00,Hao-above-Topalov, REVERSE

$21.00,Karjakin-above-Aronian, REVERSE

$21.00,Karjakin-above-Carlsen, REVERSE

$21.00,Karjakin-above-Topalov, REVERSE

$21.00,Svidler-above-Topalov, REVERSE

$10.50,Anand-above-Topalov, REVERSE + twinlark

$10.50,Anand-equal-Svidler, Golden Executive + suenteus po 147

$10.50,Nakamura-above-Topalov, REVERSE + WinKing

Go figure, something to think about :-)

May-20-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <So the player with lowest rating on top and the highest rating at the bottom. The reverse order would have won the pair betting ranker:) >

Ouch. So much for my nuanced analysis.

May-20-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: I appreciate the update in the HOF medals <lostemperor> but I think I'm listed in the wrong category. I have two golds & two silvers now don't I?

<lostemperor: <Golden Executive> ( 1st absolute and 1st square ranker), <WinKing> (1st absolute ranker, 2nd Square ranker, 2nd Pair betting ranker) and <twinlark> (1st pair betting ranker) are the winners of this exciting tournament! Bronze goes to <fgh> <Diademas>* and <SwitchingQuylthulg> Congratulations!!>

I had one gold to begin with.

May-20-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: I think <twinlark> also won a gold medal <lostemperor> but I don't see his name listed in the HOF.
May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Uhm correct me if I am wrong <WinKing> you won another K and another Q! I though I added that yesterday. Did you already had silver before? If so I made a mistake as I also thought I added <twinlark> but had not obviously. Thanks.
May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I read another can't miss tournament is already on the horizon <TAL MEMORIAL 2013> http://www.chessdom.com/tal-memoria... June 12 -24. So I hope we can have another representative Prediction Game! Bets are open:)

List of participants:

1. Carlsen
2. Kramnik
3. Karjakin
4. Anand
5. Caruana
6. Nakamura
7. Mamedyarov
8. Morozevich
9. Gelfand
10. Andreikin

May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: <lostemperor: Uhm correct me if I am wrong <WinKing> you won another K and another Q! I though I added that yesterday.>

Ok then I need an explanation <lostemperor> about the scoring system because I'm really confused. I was second in both Square Ranker & Betting Ranker>. Why do I only get one silver?

<lostemperor: <WinKing> (1st absolute ranker, 2nd Square ranker, 2nd Pair betting ranker)>

Also if what you have above is correct then you still have me listed in the wrong category. The way you have my medal count listed now I should be below <Ezzy> & above <SloVice>.

May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I had you in the wrong category indeed <WinKing>. My mistake, thanks for pionting that out! But the medals were right since you had one K before the Norway tournament.

There is a rule that the same person or persons cannot get two gold in one contest because iy happens too often that one and the same person gets two or three gold in one contest. That would inflate the Hall of fame medals unnecessarily and its clarity. I should put this rule in my profile but have explained it times before. Read also my recent comments on this tournament awards May 18.

Many has won double or triple K in the past and also get one K. I would say most of the Hall of famers. It would not benefit the clarity to give two or three gold for one contest. Otherwise this time <Golden Excecutive> has won double K also. People like <YouRang> would have had over 10 K} if in each contest they could win more than one Crown. Even you had double Crown in Tatasteel chess but got one in the Hall of Fame. This goes back all the way back from the start of these contests that noone wins more tham one crown unless another ranker produce a different winner also. ( Though when I started this Game I can only calculate the absolute ranker by heart!)<and of course also not more than one silver or bronze unless a ranker produce a different winner>. This time the Pair betting ranker produced a different winner <twinlark> so a new set of medals is awarded! But the square ranker had the same winner <Golden Executive> and was therefore not awarded a new set of medals.

In case a player is disadvantaged by this rule by getting no medal at all, he or she will get a medal (Q or R what happened to <Diademas> this time). I have kibitz this several times but it is easy to miss. Hope this helps. If you have any questions please let me know.

May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: <lostemperor: Even you had double Crown in Tatasteel chess but got one in the Hall of Fame.>

Yes, I understood <lostemperor> about the 'no two golds' in one contest rule. I never questioned that. My question is about the silver medals. So what you are saying is that you can not win two silvers in any one contest either. Is this correct?

May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Simpy put: only one set of medal KQRis awarded per contest unless a differnt ranker produces a different gold winner.
May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Ok I just saw this in your last post.

<lostemperor: and of course also not more than one silver or bronze unless a ranker produce a different winner>.

I think I've got it now. Your ways of distributing medals is a bit unusual but I'm slowly getting the hang of it. Thanks for answering my questions <lostemperor>.

May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <WinKing> I now have put it above in one sentence: <only one set of medals is awarded per contest unless a different ranker produces a different gold winner>

The one gold rule is actually a one set of medal rule. But if the three rankers produce three different gold medalist, it is possible to win two or three silver, bronze or even gold. As far as I can remember no one has ever won more than one gold in one contest but I believe it has happened before that because of two or three sets of medals awarded in a past tournament, someone has won more than one silver or bronze.

May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: To avoid these kinds of questions again & again <lostemperor> you might want to list the ways(if any) to obtain 2K's or 2Q's in one contest. If this is not possible it should be stated as such above in your bio.
May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Ok you stating that <lostemperor> should help in the future.
May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I just want to prevent unclear inflation in the HOF over a long period of time! But if you have ideas let me know:)
May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Good idea <Winking> though I do not understand your second comment: < Ok you stating that <lostemperor> should help in the future.>?
May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: <lostemperor: I just want to prevent unclear inflation in the HOF over a long period of time! But if you have ideas let me know:)>

Oh no I get that part about inflation <lostemperor>. I just want to understand how the medals can be won & what are the restrictions.

Before our discussion I actually knew how better to keep score in these games than as to how the medals were distributed. Should be the other way around one would think.

May-21-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Sorry <lostemperor> it should have read:

Ok you stating that <lostemperor> should help *us* in the future.

May-22-13
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Prediction Contest - lostemperor

TAL MEMORIAL 2013

1. Carlsen
2. Anand
2. Nakamura
4. Kramnik
5. Karjakin
5. Caruana
5. Morozevich
8. Gelfand
8. Mamedyarov
10. Andreikin

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