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twinlark
Member since Nov-17-05
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My wrap of our Chessgames Challenge: The World vs A Nickel, 2006 against ICCF Grandmaster Arno Nickel is at User: World Team Tribute.

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<The lyf so short, the craft so long to lerne.>

― Geoffrey Chaucer, The Parliament of Birds

>> Click here to see twinlark's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   twinlark has kibitzed 17561 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Aug-11-16 twinlark chessforum (replies)
 
twinlark: <One, two, or all of the above.> They don't call her the Queen of War for no reason. <Putin and Erdogan> I don't think charades will work with NATO. Putin might just keep the pressure on Erdogan.
 
   Jul-12-16 Kenneth Rogoff (replies)
 
twinlark: <zanzibar> <Why use a robot (which is still serviceable, with the exception of its robotic arm)? In order to avoid the possibility of the gunman fighting through the wall, is the best I could come up with.> I can come up with other scenarios, including that they were ...
 
   Jun-07-16 Viktor Korchnoi (replies)
 
twinlark: R.I.P Grandmaster Viktor Lvovich Korchnoi. Your legacy will last as long as the great game itself.
 
   May-31-16 R Praggnanandhaa (replies)
 
twinlark: <offramp> Thanks.
 
   May-23-16 European Individual Championship (2016) (replies)
 
twinlark: <notyetagm: Top 23 wins invitations to the 2017 World Cup> Navara and possibly Wojtaszek might make it into the World Cup on the basis of ratings. If that is the case, then Ter-Sahakyan and Lupulescu might still qualify.
 
   May-16-16 keypusher chessforum (replies)
 
twinlark: <keypusher> You might be interested in this: http://www.unz.com/article/the-iq-g...
 
   May-07-16 Annie K. chessforum (replies)
 
twinlark: <<Also, are we still waiting for feedback from <twinlark>?> He seems to be busy, but we're in no hurry.> Sorry. I am actually on the job. I'll try to be quick.
 
   Apr-20-16 Big Pawn chessforum (replies)
 
twinlark: TF is coming here to return BP's back rubs. Carry on, guys. Always good to see a nice bromance.
 
   Apr-19-16 TheFocus chessforum (replies)
 
twinlark: I see you lads have formed a mutual admiration society. Let me leave this page so that you can enjoy each other in the privacy of this forum.
 
   Apr-17-16 Abdel Irada chessforum (replies)
 
...
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 278 OF 278 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Aug-06-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <setting off the current craziness of a Trump/Putin association>

Putin can't be all that comfortable with such a far righter as Trump. To an outsider like me, the trumped up accusations of a Trump-Putin association sounds ridiculous.

IMO it's another sign of how closer US is moving toward a Big Brother Orwellian culture. MSM can print any lie they want to and the ordinary American will believe it unconditionally.

MSM prints Putin is a thug. The ordinary American reader is soon spouting the same line without even bothering to hear Putin speak at all.

MSM prints out that Assad is a brutal murderer of his people. The ordinary American reader is soon spouting the same line without even bothering to hear Assad speak at all.

Maybe sometime in the future, MSM can print out a terrorist group has just attempted to assassinate the POTUS, and that martial law has to be declared.

Even without any evidence for an attempted assassination being presented, I suspect that most ordinary Americans will swallow such statements as long as they're coming from CNN, Fox, etc.. and welcome martial law.

Aug-06-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <Also, the battle for Aleppo appears to be finally coming to a head. Even the pro-Russian blogs are uncertain as to the outcome, as the fighting is extremely fierce. I feel they may be a little disingenuous as ISIS supply lines are cut, the major push from the direction of Latakia must come a cropper against Russian air superiority, and Turkey seems to have withdrawn from operations.>

IMO if Turkey had lent its full support to this jihadi offensive, it would have succeeded by now.

My impression of the SAA is that it's cursed by incompetence and corruption. Time and again, numerically small jihadi forces have been able to overcome supposedly well defended positions. If you see videos of the jihadists, many wield the same weapons as the SAA- from AKs to T55 tanks and BMPs- and many Syrians say its because corrupt officers sell these weapons to the jihadists. Or they are abandoned wholesale by incompetently retreating SAA soldiers without being destroyed.

It's fortunate that support from Turkey appears to have lessened. I've little doubt Turkey is still letting jihadists cross the border, but at least Turkish special forces inside Syria have now been mostly withdrawn and Turkish artillery no longer supports their offensives.

As it is, Russian strategists are probably hoping to catch the jihadi offensive salient in a pincer trap. However, ultimately the success of this plan depends on the competence of SAA ground forces.

Aug-06-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <To an outsider like me, the trumped up accusations of a Trump-Putin association sounds ridiculous.>

Indeed. I suspect Trump's actual connections to Russia have more to do with doing deals with its oligarchs and mobsters, that with the polity. I'm amazed at how one throw away line by Putin has leveraged so much of the MSM craziness.

By the by, Newsweek seems to be softening up the punters in the West to a war with Russia:

http://www.newsweek.com/europeans-a...

Aug-07-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Boomie: I wouldn't get too worked up about what happens during presidential election campaigns. US politics is a messy affair. Nobody really takes it seriously. It requires a strong stomach to watch it. Not a very pretty sight, indeed.

Fortunately, the office of President is largely a ceremonial position. Over 90% of what they do is dictated by statutes. As we have seen over the past few presidents, it doesn't seem to matter much who or which party. We just hope they bring good speech writers.

Aug-07-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <Jihadist rebels capture key military base in southern Aleppo>

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...

It seems SAA incompetence is at its finest once again. According to some Syrians in the internet, SAA knew the attack was coming. Yet there was no artillery or aircraft fire directed at it, in a relatively open terrain. The base also had no trenches, no mines, no fortified machinegun positions, no booby traps or failsafes to blow up any weaponry before they can get captured by the jihadists. In the end, the whole arsenal of the base was captured by jihadists according to Syrians.

I thought Russian and Syrian strategists were planning a pincer movement in order to annihilate the attackers. In the end they still have to rely on boots on the ground from the SAA; and SAA just can't deliver.

The article ends with <The Russian Air Force is now bombing the Aleppo Artillery Base in order to stop the jihadist rebels from fortifying their positions.>

Even the Russians must be fed up with SAA incompetence.

On another note, thousands of jihadists were involved. I am beginning to suspect that Erdogan is once again playing a backstabbing game with the Russians. There must have been hundreds if not thousands of jihadists let in from Turkey.

Aug-07-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: Assad himself estimates that Turkey allowed 5000 jihadists through to Aleppo: http://www.vineyardsaker.co.nz/
Aug-07-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: Although it seems many of these have all ready been on the ground for some time.
Aug-07-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Boomie: <SAA incompetence>

I would speculate that this was a case of green troops up against an experienced and determined enemy. These IS groups have been fighting for many years longer than Syria's army. This rout was perhaps analogous to what happened to the Americans at Kasserine Pass. Hopefully the Syrian command mixes battled hardened veterans with the rookies from now on.

Aug-08-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <I would speculate that this was a case of green troops up against an experienced and determined enemy.>

Not sure about that. The SAA is the battle hardened remnant of the original army which has been depleted by war and emigration. Anyone who hasn't fled Syria at this stage, let alone remains fighting in the military is more likely than not experienced and genuinely dedicated. After all, until the Russian intervention their destiny appeared to be defeat and death.

Not sure either that incompetence and corruption are the source of this debacle in Aleppo, as I think the corrupt types would have fled for greener pastures by now including the jihadist opposition.

Perhaps this is a temporary setback caused by a last ditch stand by the jihadis, attacking with all available strength in the one battlefield, in a last ditch effort to secure its vital beach head in Aleppo. It seems to be common assumption on both sides that losing Aleppo would be curtains for the jihadists, hence their desperation in throwing everything on the final cast of the dice.

Still, the absence of basic battle strategy by the SAA in anticipating a predictable move by the terrorists is a worry, and one that is probably exasperating the Russians no end, especially as they are continuing to lose lives on this battlefield.

Aug-08-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

What's your opinion about the evidence that seems to show Hillary is not well?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...

Aug-08-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Boomie: <twinlark: the absence of basic battle strategy by the SAA in anticipating a predictable move by the terrorists is a worry>

I guess this is what suggested inexperience to me. Perhaps it means overconfidence. Like the Romans against Spartacus, they didn't prepare for battle. Still, I should think that experienced soldiers would not be so negligent.

Aug-08-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <What's your opinion about the evidence that seems to show Hillary is not well?>

The videos are interesting. It does appear she has some deficits. Slight loss of motor strength of the lower extremities? Imbalance? Dysphagia?

<the so called "handler" appears to carry a Diazepam pen.>

Diazepam makes one sleepy though, so if she gets injected, her handlers would have to provide for a quick exit for her, before she nods herself off to dreamland.

I'm just speculating of course.

At any rate, her political opponents could well profit by making these videos go viral.

Aug-08-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <Boomie: <twinlark: the absence of basic battle strategy by the SAA in anticipating a predictable move by the terrorists is a worry>

I guess this is what suggested inexperience to me. Perhaps it means overconfidence.>

Right after that disaster, <Maj. Gen. Zaid Saleh who led the Rep. Guard during Layramoun battle has reportedly replaced Maj. Gen. Adib Mohamad as head of Aleppo Security Committee.>

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-r...

Fielding inexperience unmotivated soldiers or overconfidence by the commanders is still incompetence. It seems to be a problem with Arab armies in general. AFAIK, many of the commanders attain their ranks because of political connections.

Syrians in the internet have been clamoring for a change in SAA's top brass for quite some time now.

1. They knew Idlib was about to be attacked. Again, no trenches, fortified artillery and machinegun position, minefields, booby traps, or readily available air support.

2. They knew Palmyra was about to be attacked. Again, no trenches, fortified artillery and machinegun position, minefields, booby traps, or readily available air support.

3. Numerous other incidents of the same nature, on a smaller scale. In several cases, bases got overrun and all the SAA soldiers caught inside executed (with macabre videos uploaded in you tube), and arsenal confiscated.

Worse, there are rumors that in many of these cases, the SAA officers were actually sympathetic to the jihadists, and knowingly facilitated their advance.

If this were WW2 in Germany, Japan, or the USSR, or in the Roman Empire or Imperial China, the 'bad' commanders would probably have been executed and replaced by more competent ones a long time ago.

Aug-08-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: What makes the loss of these areas so hurting to the Syrians and so exasperating to the Russians is that in order to retake them, much effort from the elite forces of the SAA and direct Russian involvement, which means Russian WIAs and KIAs, is needed.

For example, nearly every Syrian in the net agrees that Russian forces were indispensable in the recapture of Palmyra. In fact, some even believe that it was Russian forces that essentially recaptured Palmyra.

MSM generally agrees.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/af...

What many from both sides are saying is that it wasn't only RUAF that was involved. Russian mobile artillery, spotters, and boots on the ground were in too.

Note that Palmyra is on a desert. No cover for the jihadists. SAA with the support of the Syrian air force should have been able to retake it by themselves. For months, they could not.

On a high note, once the Russian military had mobilized their forces (probably a combination of RUAF, a covert artillery brigade, spetznaz spotters, paratroopers and marines), it appears they had no difficulty in retaking Palmyra with minimal casualties. The jihadists are still no match for the Russian military.

I believe that Assad, the Syrian Baath party, the SAA had better shake themselves and retake Aleppo city before the US Presidential elections. If Hillary manages to win, the war would escalate. She has already stated her intentions to bomb Syria.

It's a frightening scenario. Syria has Russian bases and outposts, unlike in Libya. If HRC ups the ante in Syria, Russian personnel are bound to get caught. We get the possibility of a direct US vs Russia military confrontation.

Aug-09-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <We get the possibility of a direct US vs Russia military confrontation.>

Probably why Russia would prefer the possibility of Trump pulling US focus back to the US, rather than Clinton spearheading more military adventures, almost inevitably directed against BRICS interests.

Aug-10-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: Below are the latest updates on the Battle for Aleppo. This is mighty important for the Syrian because it will probably make or break the jihadist invasion.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...

This article definitively shows that the Russian military is very much aware of what's going on, and does care about the result. There have been plenty of rumors that the Russians have abandoned the Syrians, but General's worry clearly indicates otherwise.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...

So it seem that the SAA is still holding after all. My impression is that they actually lost the opening battle, and would have lost Aleppo as they did Idlib and Palmyra, but that heavy Russian bombing stalled the jihadists advance and destroyed a significant amount of incoming personnel and war materiel. That bought enough time for reinforcements to arrive, including the Republican Guards, which probably is their best division.

The Republican Guards are known to be more or less permanently stationed in Damascus and its outlying areas. The fact that they had to be called in indicates just how critical the situation had become. This isn't a cunning pre-planned trap as what many Syrians are optimistically saying, that they were always in control. Aleppo was was about to go south, but was saved by desperate round the clock RUAF bombing and the belated order to bring in the best reinforcements.

Aug-11-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <The search operations carried out during the night of 6/7 August 2016 in the vicinity of the city of Armyansk, Republic of Crimea, uncovered a group of saboteurs. While attempting to detain the terrorists, an FSB operative was killed by enemy gunfire. The following was discovered on the scene: 20 improvised explosive devices with a total explosive power of 40kg TNT, munitions, special detonators, standard-issue anti-personnel and magnetic land mines, grenades, and special-issue weapons used by Ukrainian armed forcesí special operations units.>

https://southfront.org/fsb-captures...

Other pro-Russian sources say that two Russian agents were killed, plus an unknown number of Ukrainian infiltrators. Most of the Russian sources claim that the Ukrainians were not the typical Nazi militia types but were from the Ukrainian special forces, who fought with proficiency.

I hope this isn't a portent of new phase in the Ukrainian crisis.

There have been internet rumors of increased Ukrainian military activity directed against Donbass, and Russia moving in troops close to the Ukrainian border. I would ignore them as speculations, except that a significant number of sources are saying that there are now more Russian troops near the Ukrainian border than at any previous time during the crisis.

It's as if the Russians are preparing seriously for something to happen. A possible Clinton victory and a sudden ramping up of hostilities in the Ukraine?

If HRC wins, it could get very messy very quickly. Both the Ukrainian and Syrian crisis could escalate overnight. Pressure would be brought to Turkey and Saudi Arabia to tow the US Foreign Policy line. False flags against Iran. Coup attempts in Latin America. A push to break up BRICS. Boiling up the South China Sea issue into a confrontational crisis. One, two, or all of the above.

Aug-11-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <twinlark>

Article on the countries of origin for jihadist weapons. It correlates with previous studies that a significant number of those AK and other arms we see in you tube being used by jihadists are from Eastern Europe. The financiers are the usual suspects.

https://off-guardian.org/2016/07/30...

Article critical of the vaunted Abrams tank.

http://www.defenseone.com/business/...

It seems that the design of the Abrams isn't as good as what MSM makes it out to be. To put it in another way, MSM sources that keep on indicating that the tank is virtually invulnerable are lying. It's clear from the empirical observations of a score of Abrams tanks destroyed or damaged in Yemen alone.

I'm wondering what other US weapons systems are being lied about by the MSM.

Aug-11-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <twinlark>

The article below is a must read.

http://russia-insider.com/en/erdoga...

In summary, it seems that in contrast to all his flowery words, Erdogan has not budged a bit on his support for Syrian jihadists and has carefully avoided all the important issues that strain Russian - Turkish relations.

These include issues critical for Russia's security such as Turkey sheltering and actively providing support for Islamists bent on destabilizing Crimea, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, and the issue of who goes into the Black sea.

I was particularly fascinated by Putin's pictures. They belie the Russian media's diplomatic statements on the planned opening of the Turk Stream, resumption of Russian tourism in Turkey, the resumption of trade. All throughout Erdogan's show, Putin is clearly quite unhappy.

IMO Putin thinks Erdogan may be pulling his leg; and is inwardly angry at this. On the other hand, he has to tolerate the charade, hoping that Erdogan would pull Turkey away from NATO.

Aug-11-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <One, two, or all of the above.>

They don't call her the Queen of War for no reason.

<Putin and Erdogan>

I don't think charades will work with NATO. Putin might just keep the pressure on Erdogan.

Aug-12-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <Putin and Erdogan>

While Turkish President Erdogan was politically groveling in front of Russian President Putin, he was allowing thousands of jihadists, a significant number of whom are Turkish, to enter Syria from Turkey, which Russian warplanes were bombing round the clock in order to save Aleppo.

<Putin might just keep the pressure on Erdogan.>

IMO Putin is trying to draw Turkey away from US and NATO, and is trying to make concessions in order to achieve his aim.

Ergdogan is fully aware of it, and is trying to get those concessions, while staying with US (or at least continuing to get US aid and weapons) and NATO, and proceeding with his proxy war against Putin in Syria.

Putin must also be aware of what Erdogan is doing, as is clearly evidenced by his unhappiness in the pictures.

I think it's political double talking at its finest.

Rather than give in at once to Erdogan's request for the resumption of trade, IMO Putin should make the closure of the Turkish Syrian border a requirement.

Aug-14-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <Russian jets conduct 100+ airstrikes over Idlib>

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...

What is the Russian Air force hitting? The article explains it's

<jihadist reinforcements making their way to the southern districts of Aleppo City.>

From what I can gather from various news sources from both sides, this jihadist offensive may be the biggest one ever in the Syrian conflict.

If it were not for the Russian airforce, the jihadists would have taken Aleppo and carved out a proxy colony for Turkey in the Syrian north.

Who's allowing it? Sources also say that many of the jihadists are Turks or coming from Turkey. Erdogan is allowing it or most probably abetting it, while groveling and smiling before the Russian leadership.

Meanwhile RT and TASS are mostly ignoring this particular jihadist offensive in Aleppo while occasionally writing on other parts of Syria. Yet the Russian airforce is clearly working overtime in order to prevent the fall of Aleppo City against what is essentially a Turkish proxy army invasion.

Meanwhile Erdogan is all thanks and smiles, groveling before the Russian leadership; and the Russian press is printing rainbows and sweets about Turkey.

Unbelievable.

Aug-14-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <Russian Marines at Palmyra>

https://informnapalm.org/en/russian...

This vehemently Russophobic Ukrainian site is claiming that it was Russian marines who took took Palymyra and control it militarily; and more importantly tries to provide evidence for its claims.

They could well be right, as Syrian and MSM sources themselves say the Russians were indispensable. What I did not know is what units of the Russian military provided for the boots on the ground. Previously I thought it was mostly Russian Paratroopers.

Aug-14-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: Latest news on the Syrian war:

<After extremely intense clashes in the Zahraa Quarter in west Aleppo and the Cement Plant in southwest Aleppo, the situation has calmed exponentially with the risk of escalation at any given moment.>

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...

<Field Report: Jihadi rebels launch fresh offensive in west Aleppo.>

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...

<A mysterious explosion targeted a large jihadist gathering in the border town of Atmeh in the northern countryside of Idlib.

The militants who came from various Islamist groups including Faylaq Al-Sham and Harakat Nour El-Din Al-Zinki were mobilizing to be transported to the grinding front lines of Aleppo near the border crossing of Atmeh. 35 fighters have so far been confirmed dead while over 50 were wounded including several civilians and Turkish Army servicemen. A bus carrying dozens of militants was incinerated in the massive explosion.

The perpetrator of this act has yet to be known, but it is very likely that he was part of an ISIS sleeper cell operating in the fertile province. Many Islamic State sympathizers remained in Idlib following the groupís expulsion from the province in 2014 during the jihadist civil war.>

https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...

The last one in other words says that there is a massive flow of jihadists from Turkey to Syria. A truck full of these jihadists and <Turkish Army servicemen> got blown up by other jihadists.

The only way that jihadists are maintaining the offensive is for them to have been acquiring fresh troops. Most of the reports say these are coming in from Turkey, crossing into Idlib, and then proceeding to Aleppo.

IMO Putin should really bear down on Erdogan to close the border. The presence of Turkish soldiers with the jihadists clearly indicate that the Turkish army is still cooperating and abetting them.

Aug-15-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

What's your opinion about the evidence that seems to show Hillary is not well?>

I've been thinking of this. If HRC is indeed having post traumatic or post stroke seizures, it usually is a permanent illness. (The videos are consistent with a person with seizures, but I wasn't there, so I can't technically do a real diagnosis.) She will have to be on anti seizure drugs all the time.

Why do post traumatic seizures occur? It's because the brain has been damaged. Neurons fire involuntarily, causing unwanted motor movements. Diazepam and other anti seizure meds depress these abnormally firing neurons. (They usually have a sedative effect too, causing the patient to feel sleepy.)

One thing I've noticed with these patients is that they often develop psychological problems. I think it's another organic side effect of the brain trauma or stroke, or perhpaps they just get depressed because they are having seizures (or other Neurological deficits). In any case, they are often irritable, occasionally lash out even at their closest relatives, sometimes get disoriented, forgetful, and unmindful. I've ended up referring many of them to Psychiatrists.

If this is the case with HRC (I'm just speculating of course, based on what I've seen in you video), Americans better make sure that she has good Neurologists and Psychiatrists around her if they decide to elect her as President. No one would want someone suffering from post traumatic seizures and depression to have her trigger finger on the US nuclear arsenal.

Again the above is only speculation, based on the pre supposition that HRC is indeed suffering from post traumatic or post CVA seizures.

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