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twinlark
Member since Nov-17-05
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My wrap of our Chessgames Challenge: The World vs A Nickel, 2006 against ICCF Grandmaster Arno Nickel is at User: World Team Tribute.

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<The lyf so short, the craft so long to lerne.>

― Geoffrey Chaucer, The Parliament of Birds

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"What we’re seeing are the puppets’... shadows jumping all over the screen. ...sometimes the puppets move in a seemingly incoherent fashion. But the puppet master is always in control, moving them, giving them voice, in a rational fashion vis-a-vis his plot for the play. The wise old Prussian, Clausewitz, wrote that war is conducted for a reason ie it has certain aims and objectives. The conduct of war may appear chaotic but war, any war, is conducted for a rational end.

So to come back to the shadow play, what’s the best way to stop a bad — and potentially deadly one for all of us — shadow play? Why, talk to the puppet master of course and tell him in no uncertain terms that he’s in the play too." - Basil @ http://thesaker.is/rex-tillerson-me...

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>> Click here to see twinlark's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   twinlark has kibitzed 18001 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Jul-17-17 twinlark chessforum (replies)
 
twinlark: <perfidious> I just noticed the repetition of words in my last post to you. My apologies, it was accidental.
 
   May-13-17 Kenneth S Rogoff (replies)
 
twinlark: <Colonel Mortimer> <Otherwise it's simple hypocrisy, just like the 'war on terror'.> Or the resurrected "War on Drugs". Keep them prisoners rollin' rawhide!.
 
   Apr-26-17 jessicafischerqueen chessforum (replies)
 
twinlark: Wombats 'R Us
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 349 OF 349 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jul-04-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  Colonel Mortimer: <visayanbraindoctor: No report on Saudi troop movements toward the Qatari border. I do not expect an imminent attack. The Sauds will have to swallow crow and lose a lot of geopolitical credibility in the Middle East.>

Qatar will never be attacked, as long as they keep their insurance policy, the largest military base in the region, which also happens to belong to the Americans.

Saudi Arabia is angling for some type of succession/regime type change in Qatar, and more probably just attempting to redirect the rather large finger that points them out as the major state sponsor of terrorism in the region.

The fall of the House of Saud isn't far off, and with it a major correction in the value of the US Dollar.

Jul-04-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <Colonel Mortimer>'

<Qatar will never be attacked, as long as they keep their insurance policy, the largest military base in the region, which also happens to belong to the Americans.>

Not sure this would be a major sweat for the US if there was minimal violence, as it would be like changing landlords. Can't see the US (some of them anyway) fussed about the Saudis overrunning Qatar, much less using its military against them as it is impossible to believe the KSA would attack the US base.

The big if, of course is "minimal violence". Especially with a small but well armed military - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar... -and Turkish troops on the base with a Turkish commitment to prevent a KSA takeover. Much active resistance might cause collateral damage to the US base.

This is all speculation of course, but we shall see what happens as the extended deadline expires today.

Jul-04-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  perfidious: <twinlark>, the exposure of Watergate and all its attendant actions was something of a wakeup call for an American people who were, in my view, largely accustomed to a diet of 'my country right or wrong' and the utter omnipotence of authority in general and the presidency in particular.

One can go back--and this is merely scratching the surface--a long way; LBJ was well known to be a slimepot to even intimate associates, his predecessor was one of the course instructors at <Ibanganythingthatmoves University>; and Warren Harding's administration, along with Grant's fifty years before, was as corrupt as they come.

Jul-04-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <perfidious>

<Warren Harding's administration, along with Grant's fifty years before, was as corrupt as they come.>

Has there been any breaking news in the States about Trump's deals to build a tower in Bali overlooking the Tanah Lot temple and to buy up a large tract of the last remaining forest in Java displacing many subsistence farmers? The land bought by Trump in Java has tripled in value since a toll road to the area is being built.

Jul-05-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  perfidious: <twinlark>, have heard nothing as yet.
Jul-05-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <perfidious>

Here's some info unearthed by Australia's Four Corners team:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-...

Jul-06-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: A reasonably sane article by MSM standards of what the DPRK is on about and why. The comments however..

http://www.smh.com.au/comment/north...

Jul-09-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: It seems that Trump got on well with Putin.

However, many analysts have been saying that Trump has trouble controlling US foreign policy, is too ignorant of geopolitics, or has defaulted it to factions of the US leadership.

Interesting article on Russia's official position on Syria.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/07/yo...

< Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that the future of Syria and its president lies in the hands of the Syrian people, not the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

“The US Secretary of State is not a citizen of Syria and has no right to talk about its future and the fate of its president. This shall only be decided by the Syrian people”, Putin was heard saying during a press conference of the G20 summit in Hamburg.>

MSM will be ignoring this statement as usual, or misquoting it.

Regarding the Kurds, it can be gleaned that Russia recommends local autonomy for them under a Syrian Federation (I already discussed this before), while US seems to be working for Kurdish independence (as a new client nation under US control).

It is also apparent from internet chatter that the Baath party, being extremely nationalistic, does not want either of the above.

Same with Ergdogan's Turkey, as it sees the possibility of any form of Kurdish self-rule as a threat to Turkey.

Jul-09-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: Yes. The eternal Kurdish "problem" continues to dog the world and world peace.
Jul-10-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  Colonel Mortimer: <twinlark: Yes. The eternal Kurdish "problem" continues to dog the world and world peace.>

Maybe the Kurds could be promised a land in the Middle-East belonging to other peoples.

It's been done before, with great success, even though the 70 year 'peace process' is still ongoing..

Jul-10-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <Colonel Mortimer> <Maybe the Kurds could be promised a land in the Middle-East belonging to other peoples>

Or maybe they could be promised land they've always actually lived on. Except that one didn't even start to work, with the double cross going down faster than you could say Sykes-Picot.

Sad old world.

Jul-10-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: The disorientation in the US leadership can be compared to a drunk that fell off a motorcycle and can't tell you if it's day or night.

<President Donald Trump made headlines last month when he promised Secretary of Defense James Mattis and his generals would be given “full control” to deploy additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan as they saw fit. But today, the Wall Street Journal revealed that Trump’s promise wasn’t as advertised: The White House privately told defense planners they’d better not deploy more than 3,900 new service members.>

http://taskandpurpose.com/trump-mat...

Going back to the Syrian Kurds, although both the Syrian Baath party and Erdogan's Turkey are against them obtaining any form of autonomy or independence, they also differ fundamentally. All the Syrian Baath party desires is Syrian territorial integrity. Erdogan's Turkey not only will deny the Kurds any self-rule, it also wants to grab (has already dione so in fact) a piece of Syrian territory.

So the Syrian Baath party is in a fix. IMO they had to make a political deal with the Kurds for them to attain some kind of self rule, or lose a piece of Idlib and Aleppo to the Turks permanently. Conversely, the Baathists can continue imposing strict Unitarianism on the areas they control; but accept that they will lose northern Idlib and Aleppo to likewise Unitarian (and expansionist too, unfortunately for Syria) Turkey forever.

Russia (from internet chatter from Syrian, Turkish, and Kurdish sources) came up with option 1 probably years ago, with the Russians supervising the political transition. The presence of Russian troops in northernmost Syria inside the hypothetical Kurdish autonomous region would have made it impossible for the Turks to invade without killing Russian servicemen. The Baathists kept on turning this proposal down purely for ideological reasons. Turkey eventually invaded parts of northern Idlib and Allepo, and may invade Afrin as well (the last remaining Kurdish-controlled area). It seems that the final result will be: 1. Syria loses parts of Idlib and Aleppo permanently to Turkey. 2. The Kurds don't attain a political homeland. Only Turkey has come out a winner.

Jul-11-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  perfidious: <twinlark>, Sykes-Picot makes one think of pure hypocrisy, come to subsequent Allied outrage over the terms dictated by the Germans in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, don't you think?
Jul-11-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <perfidious>

Not that familiar with that treaty, unlike the Versailles Treaty and the Treaty of Trianon, both of which were hugely unfair, the former likely a major cause of WWII and the latter unfairly penalising a country that was subordinate in the Dual Monarchy.

Jul-11-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  perfidious: <twinlark>, neither was I terribly familiar with Sykes-Picot.

An underlying reason for Allied terms insisted upon at Versailles was the draconian peace agreed upon in early 1918 between the Communists and the Entente. A map of Russian territorial concessions follows:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treat...

From the Wikipedia article on Brest-Litovsk:

<....The treaty marked Russia's final withdrawal from World War I as an enemy of her co-signatories, on severe terms. In all, the treaty took away territory that included a quarter of the population and industry of the former Russian Empire and nine-tenths of its coal mines.>

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treat...

Jul-12-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <perfidious>

And worst of all was the Balfour Declaration, an act of true imperial perfidy by Britian.

Jul-13-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

Turkey is purchasing two S400 batteries from russia, essentially turning its back on purchases of such equipment from the West. I'm not really understanding the rationale for this move by Russia, except that the S500 systems must be now operational...I cannot see Russia heedlessly selling Turkey its best anti-aircraft defences without maintaining some sort of decisive edge in case Turkey (ie: Erdogan) exhibits another turnabout. Perhaps Turkey has more or less cast its lot with a Russian alliance despite its membership of NATO?

The other issue is the question of why Russia is selling such systems before the war in northern syria involving Turkey and the Kurds, and in particular the Turkish occupation of northern Syria is resolved.

Any thoughts?

Jul-14-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <twinlark> Erdogan is so obviously playing US/NATO and Russia against each other, that the Russians must be aware that Erdogan could 'betray' them anytime. So perhaps you are right that the Russians have already fully developed the S500. The Russians must have decided to sell a downgraded version of the S400 (they always export downgraded versions of the genuine stuff) simply because they need the money, given the EU -US sanctions and the cost of their Syrian involvement.

<Perhaps Turkey has more or less cast its lot with a Russian alliance despite its membership of NATO?>

I highly doubt it. Erdogan is adroitly and expertly fence-sitting. He won't leave NATO by his own. At the same time, he will buy Russian weapon systems and pretend to be friendly to Russia. If Russia for any reason collapses, Erdogan's Turkey will be ready to turn on Russia and annex Crimea and the Caucasus states, maybe even the central Asian republics, as these former Ottoman provinces are key components to the neo-Ottoman pan-Turkic dream. Erdogan and his party's leadership seem to be ideologues committed to their own ultimate geopolitical vision.

Jul-14-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: From my post above.

<<There is significant Denisovan genetic material in eastern Southeast Asian and Oceanian populations (e.g. Aboriginal Australians, Near Oceanians, Polynesians, Fijians, eastern Indonesians, Philippine Mamanwa and MANOBO>.>

I've started on the Manobo syllabus grammar book.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-5...

Jul-15-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

<<There is significant Denisovan genetic material in eastern Southeast Asian and Oceanian populations (e.g. Aboriginal Australians, Near Oceanians, Polynesians, Fijians, eastern Indonesians, Philippine Mamanwa and MANOBO>.

I've started on the Manobo syllabus grammar book.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-5... >

You've been doing an impressive amount of work. I hope the take up on these instruction videos matches some of the other takeups to do with other languages on the islands.

Jul-17-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <perfidious>

I just noticed the repetition of words in my last post to you. My apologies, it was accidental.

Jul-19-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

<<There is significant Denisovan genetic material in eastern Southeast Asian and Oceanian populations (e.g. Aboriginal Australians, Near Oceanians, Polynesians, Fijians, eastern Indonesians, Philippine Mamanwa and MANOBO>.

I've started on the Manobo syllabus grammar book.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-5... >

You've been doing an impressive amount of work.>

Thanks. There are lots of typos though. It's more like a massive rather than an impressive amount of work.

I just hope it proves useful in the future.

Jul-22-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <Neocon madness: We can't have peace in Syria, that would be giving in to Russia!>

https://www.sott.net/article/357056...

A must-read for those who have been indoctrinated by the MSM into believing the sky is green and leaves are blue.

Jul-22-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <The quest for the 10 gigaton bomb>

https://in.rbth.com/opinion/2016/01...

A sobering write-up on nuclear weapons, their disillusioned makers who rue them, and their warmongering fanboys who applaud them.

Jul-22-17
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <twinlark> Out of curiosity, if I may ask, as an outsider can you detect any difference in the accents of the 2 languages (Hiligaynon and Karay-a) in these two videos?

https://youtu.be/x__TuPzmM9I?t=515

https://youtu.be/1d_p12b6M2U?t=304

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