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twinlark
Member since Nov-17-05
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My wrap of our Chessgames Challenge: The World vs A Nickel, 2006 against ICCF Grandmaster Arno Nickel is at User: World Team Tribute.

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>> Click here to see twinlark's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   twinlark has kibitzed 16728 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Jan-27-15 twinlark chessforum
 
twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor> < http://www.icna.org.br/sites/defaul... Go to page 20 titled Balance Of CO2 and O2 in Pig iron Production > Thanks I'll read that tonight. <In Eastern European politics: Something peculiar seems to be happening in Hungary. Is the leadership ...
 
   Jan-26-15 Kenneth Rogoff (replies)
 
twinlark: <Papandreou started a new party just before the election> That was on the nose as much as anything happening in Greek politics. I thought at the time it was intended to draw votes away from Syriza.
 
   Jan-24-15 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
twinlark: Round 12: van Wely - Jobava 1/2 35 Radjabov - Hou 1/2 45 Ivanchuk - Caruana 1/2 50 Vachier-Lagrave - Aronian 1/2 29 Ding - Carlsen 1/2 28 Saric - Wojtaszek 0-1 32 Giri - So 1/2 87
 
   Jan-23-15 Magnus Carlsen (replies)
 
twinlark: <Whitehat1963: Continues to show himself to be head and shoulders above the rest. Who will be his main rival in years to come? Caruana? Giri? So? Karjakin? Vachier-Lagrave? Nakamura? Rapport? Wei Yi? Who will it be?> Wesley So is unbelievably solid. He's very difficult to ...
 
   Jan-22-15 Wei Yi (replies)
 
twinlark: <Although it is true that breaking into top 50 and top 20 are two different things.> I'd say so.
 
   Jan-20-15 Carlsen vs Radjabov, 2015 (replies)
 
twinlark: 1-0. Well done Carlsen.
 
   Jan-17-15 N Gaprindashvili vs Spassky, 1971
 
twinlark: The last time the undisputed reigning World Champion played the reigning Women's World Champion, until Carlsen plays Hou shortly.
 
   Jan-14-15 Kenneth T Solomon (replies)
 
twinlark: Congratulations to Kenny Solomon for landing the GM title.
 
   Jan-09-15 Ivan Saric (replies)
 
twinlark: Probably that the blitz events provide some pre-game entertainment.
 
   Jan-06-15 Aleksander Mista
 
twinlark: Runner up at Hastings this year. Well done.
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 233 OF 233 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Dec-28-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <Ohio>

<It won't be military action.>

That would set a precedent. Do you have any idea of what the Ukraine imbroglio is about?

Dec-28-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

Not sure that growing extra crops would necessarily be the be all and end all. There would of course be pluses and minuses, but the disruption of the ecosystem bioenergetic equilibrium would probably disrupt the reproductive patters of countless plants, animals and other life forms.

Delicate niche life forms may easily die out while the hardier species might proliferate, eg mosquitoes, flies, and their diseases, bacteria, fungi, and who knows what will be triggered from within the virus-phere.

The global ecosphere may well need to be put on life support, and I fear the knowledge for that would be either unavailable, unrecognised or overlooked.

And here we are not even considering the impact if the Humboldt Current was disrupted, especially in the North Atlantic.

Dec-29-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <Ohio>

<It won't be military action.>

OK, let me rephrase my question, and leave the rather large subject of Ukraine out of it.

If not military, why not? What are its options in maintaining the dollar as the reserve currency?

Dec-31-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  Annie K.: Happy New Year! :)
Jan-03-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

You might be interested in this summation by RT of science breakthroughs and highlights in 2014: http://rt.com/news/216531-science-r...

Jan-04-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: Thanks for the link. Some comments:

1. The problem of explaining how life got to such an early start on ancient Earth is a major puzzle. Fossil microbes have been found in your country dating around 3.5 billion years ago, smoking gun evidence for early earthly life. Life itself must have existed millions of years before this. This article http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/... claims evidence for life as early as 3.7 billion years ago. Yet the late heavy bombardment, an event that we definitively know occurred thanks to its conspicuous marks on moon cratering, is estimate to have ended only 3.8 billion years ago. The RT article is sympathetic to the panspermia theory.

2. The problem of how so much water got into the Earth is tackled. Earth together with the rocky planets are located inside the snow line of the solar system. It begins in the inner asteroid belt, where most of the asteroids are rocky and relatively dry in composition. The outer belt asteroids have lots of water, including the dwarf planet Ceres. The deuterium content of Earth water has been found to be closer to that of asteroid water than comets. The latest studies, also based on the water isotopic ratio, still support the predominant theory that a significant amount of water was brought to Earth by watery meteorites from the outer snow line in the late heavy bombardment. I find this quite logical. If even just ten Ceres-like asteroids crashed into the early Earth, or a hundred smaller ones, they would have brought sufficient water to fill the world's oceans.

3. The article cites more evidence against the practice of inbreeding. King Tut may have died of a genetic related disease from his sibling parents.

4. Any intensive experimentation on genetically engineering monkeys is always interesting because their similarity to humans (we all belong to the same order) implies one can do the same in humans.

5. The rat experiment on creating and erasing memories look more of a continuation of Pavlovian techniques. Nothing new in principle but they're getting be more detailed, targeting specific behaviors by more specific techniques on more specific areas of the brain. It's known by Psychiatrists that every one has false memories, which we often create for ourselves, but doing so in a scientific experiment sounds intriguing. As the article says it recalls the Men in Black 'neuralyzer', but it could also imply a future brainwashing tool in some future dystopian society.

6. The uterus transplant surprises me, especially as the uterus came from a post menopausal 61 year old woman. They must have transplanted the attached Fallopian tubes as well because the recipient got pregnant with her own eggs. It proves that a post menopausal uterus can host a baby, if it receives proper hormonal stimuli once again (from the younger recipient).

7. Heart transplantation has been around for decades, and in these cases, the heart being transplanted stops beating temporarily. There are techniques to keep it alive and restart it. This article dos not look new to me; perhaps they just prolonged the record for a non-beating heart.

8. New treatments for Alzheimer's, diabetes, cancer and... HIV- I would await further developments. Prosthetics are also advancing all the time.

9. Regarding the mud hut building machine from Italy, it would have more applicability in dry desert areas. In the tropics most houses are essentially large elevated huts with the interior divided into several rooms made from easily available wood. Wood if available is probably the most convenient material to fashion into a house.

Jan-08-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Tata Steel Moves Prediction Contest **

Conducted by the Legendary <chessmoron> and hosted at Graceland, home of Elvis. Click on Elvis for details.

Jan-09-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <visay: The problem of explaining how life got to such an early start on ancient Earth is a major puzzle.>

From my side, this is just total tripe. Everything the evolutionists can't explain they just file away as "a puzzle" or "a mystery" or "hope future discoveries will explain". I have made that point many times before on this site and will continue to do so. I think it's intellectually dishonest.

Jan-09-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <Ohio>

Admitting uncertainty is not intellectual dishonesty. Quite the contrary. Pretending certainty where there is none is fraud.

Jan-09-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Quite right.

<visay> is there any chance the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient?

Jan-11-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <OhioChessFan: <visay> is there any chance the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient?>

If the Earth is young and life created per Genesis, then any discussion over three billion old fossils is moot. They can't be 3 billion years old.

From the point of view of creationists, the Earth is quite young. It's based on thinking that takes the Bible passages literally. For myself I do a lot of exegesis whenever reading the Bible or any sacred scripture. (I have read and to some certain extent studied Genesis, Exodus, New Testament, Koran, Bhagavad-gita, and Dhammapada.)

I see nothing wrong in regarding Biblical stories as fiction that gives theological messages (called 'truths' in theological literature).

All literary fiction, ancient and modern, are not literally real but do serve us by telling us truths, lessons, messages, or entertain us. Just because they are not literally true does not mean that they are malignant lies. (BTW I see from your post in my forum that you have read the Count of Monte Cristo. I haven't, but I have read the Three Musketeers. A masterpiece; and while not being literally true, it tells of many truths.)

However, I believe taking these stories literally might cause trouble. Same with the stories in sacred scriptures. There are many stories in the Old Testament that describe retrograde violence and seem to justify them after they have happened. In the Koran there are lots of suras that contain passages that likewise justify retrograde violence plus even more passages that order the reader to do anterograde violence. In the Bhagavad-gita, the setting is a war story, and it justifies the annihilation of one's enemies even if they are relatives in times of war. If one just goes into these stories taking them literally, and ignore the rest of the truths written in these scriptures, one can justify murder and terrorism as mandates of a divine being, and thus morally right, and even obligatory.

You might be interested to know that I have found out (after reading them thoroughly) that two major world scriptures do not contain a single statement that orders one to do violence. The New Testament and the Dhammapada.

Regarding the puzzles of life, I do believe that the Earth is ancient based on everything that I have read. I do believe that evolution has happened and is happening. I do not regard evolution as incompatible with the Genesis story as long as one does not take Genesis literally. I think we have discussed these things before.

Jan-15-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plioce...

<The global average temperature in the mid-Pliocene (3.3–3 mya) was 2–3 °C higher than today, global sea level 25 m higher..>

If this is accurate, then it implies that a return to Pliocene period climate as global warming continues would raise the present sea levels by at least 25 meters.

The two countries that emit the most greenhouse gases are China and the USA. Hopefully China will have success in its quest to develop and commercialize 4th generation nuclear plants. On the other hand US doesn't seem to have any serious government project to do this. I can only hypothesize that powerful lobby groups are still blocking it.

Jan-16-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: 'Egyptian tourism minister: Russia, Egypt might use Russian currency in mutual settlements'

http://itar-tass.com/en/world/771695

A surprise. What's up?

Jan-17-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

The only surprise is that it is Egypt involved and not say Turkey (which is taking on the cancelled South Sea Pipeline from Russia as a clearing house for onselling to eastern Europe), especially as the regime in power has been receiving major aid from the US to take back control of the country from the democratic process. I can only imagine the fury in Washington right now as its pet regime switches allegiances.

In the bigger picture, this is merely another step in a long term strategic process of decoupling from the dollar, and engaging in currency swaps in bilateral trade. The establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union, and especially the new financial trading system set up by Russia and China to bypass SWIFT, which has been used as an economic weapon by the West, signals a tectonic shift in the view of many commentators of the global economy.

The devaluation of the rouble isn't nearly as disastrous as it might have been, as it enables Russia to repatriate foreign rouble reserves at very low prices, using its massive dollar reserves, helping to shed itself of a future liability in a profitable manner - namely the dollar which will collapse once its status as the world's reserve currency lapses.

Domestically, the devaluation of the rouble causes the cost of imports to increase, which in conjunction with Western sanctions on these same imports, is providing a major boost in building import substitution economic architecture.

In attacking the rouble, the West can cause some short to medium term inconvenience to Russia, but a mere pin prick compared to the pain inflicted by the West in the last couple of centuries, notably by Napoleon, Hitler and the Western involvement in funding the White Army after the Bolshevik Revolution. Despite the internal suffering caused by Stalin, many Russians recall the main with nostalgia, because he was a strong leader and made Russia strong. The upshot of all this is that Russia will take many decades, if not centuries, to forgive Europe and the US for its actions. Putin made a last ditch offer to Europe: abandon the economic alliance with the US and join the EEU. Last chance saloon.

The strength of Russia, its ability to survive the constant depredations by its enemies, puts the Russian population solidly behind Putin during these times. The majority of Russians have moved from favouring the West, especially the US, to being repelled by what they see is its agenda to destroy the sovereignty and strength of Russia in the West's scramble for Siberia's massive resources.

The Russian economy is reasonably sound. It has very little foreign debt, massive foreign currency reserves that far exceed in value the Russian rouble, and control over its own resources. A recent stress test conducted over what would happen if Russia turned off the gas to Europe indicate the EU would suffer an economic collapse or something very close.

The entire strategy by Russia is now to look eastward and decouple not only from the US dollar in trading, but to reduce its reliance on manufactured imports from the EU. When the Iron Curtain collapsed, Russia was subject to economic shock therapy including the domestic market being flooded by European consumer goods, completely destroying local manufacturing and turning Russia into a resource extraction economy. IN other words, placing all its economic eggs in the resource basket.

Had Yeltsin continued, this strategy may well have been successful, but Putin was far more long sighted and extremely skeptical about the West, especially after its blatantly broken promise not to expand NATO into Eastern Europe let alone beyond into the former Soviet Union.

Here's an article which provides some information about the de-dollarisation process being engaged in by the BRICS, SCO and other countries: http://www.telesurtv.net/english/bl...

Here is another interesting article about the double helix DNA relationship between Russia and China: http://www.mediafire.com/view/j8ujx...

Jan-17-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <twinlark> Those were very informative articles. Thanks.

I disagree though that there is no way for US to get out. I believe that there are two ways.

One. War followed by plunder of the defeated countries. This is a notorious time honored method known to all past empires including the Mesopotamian, Egyptian, Persian, and Greco-Roman. I will be cynical in the following statements. USA can ignite a war with an unallied country, destroy it's industries and infrastructure, defeat it, install a puppet regime, which then takes in US controlled loans to rebuild its destroyed countries at staggering interest rates. The country in effect pays the US with its gold and reserve currencies and ultimately with its raw materials and resources for what the US has destroyed. MSM can sugar paint this conquer and plunder event as humanitarian aid to the freed oppressed people of that country.

Two. Embark on a peaceful but massive development of fourth generation nuclear plants, aimed at total energy autonomy. The government finances and efforts shall be as intensive as the US WW2 war effort. The same effort that made the Los Alamos atom bomb in just four years and fully mobilize and logistically support millions of troops in Europe and the Pacific. If the US begins now, it could be fossil fuel energy independent in 5 years.

The US should see this as a war of survival, just as in WW2, but instead of a hot war, a peaceful project toward energy autonomy albeit with the same war effort as the biggest of hot wars.

I hope the US attempts the second.

Jan-17-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: A possible sci-fi theme:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abunda...

If you look at this table of Earth's crustal abundance of elements, uranium is #51, and gold and platinum #72 and 73. Note however that uranium is composed two isotopes, the rarer one U-235 consisting of 0.720% of natural uranium.

U-235 is the particular isotope of uranium that gets used in today's nuclear plants. If you do the appropriate calculations, it seems that if we separate this isotope from the more common U-238, its crustal abundance comes within a magnitude of the precious metals gold and platinum.

If U-235 is approximately as rare as gold and platinum, I can envision a society that makes currency based on U-235, instead of gold. Currency is still backed up by a metal, but one which is directly related to energy production.

What if US, EU, and BRICS came together and declared that from now on their currencies would be backed up by U-235?

Fascinating sci-fi world. A world where central banks keep uranium bullion in order to back up currencies, but bullion that can be burned in nuclear plants to make useful energy as well.

Jan-19-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor> <I hope the US attempts the second.>

I guess we should hope for the best and plan for the worst, especially as the latter doesn't fall within the realm of microscopic probability.

<Fascinating sci-fi world. A world where central banks keep uranium bullion in order to back up currencies, but bullion that can be burned in nuclear plants to make useful energy as well.>

As long as they don't keep all the bullion stacked together...

You may be interested to note that the world's largest central bank, the US Federal Reserve:

<...does not own gold.>

http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/...

Jan-20-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

The following is an interesting site if for no other reason than it provides up to date information about precious metal prices, including gold, silver, platinum and palladium: http://www.gold-eagle.com/

Nevertheless the following article written last November will be of interest. An extract:

<Thus, in exchange for Russian oil, gas and uranium, the West pays Russia with dollars, purchasing power of which is artificially inflated against oil and gold by the efforts (manipulations) of the West. However, Putin uses these dollars only to withdraw physical gold from the West in exchange at a price denominated in US dollars, artificially lowered by the same West.

This [...] puts the West led by the United States in a position of a snake, aggressively and diligently devouring its own tail.>

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/g...

Interesting reading alongside this possible explanation for the rise in the USD:

<It has rallied nearly 15% in six months, and nearly 10% of this in just the last two month. This I believe is the result of the dollar carry trade unwinding. Many commodities including oil were “carried” by borrowing dollars. This was a synthetic short position in the dollar. As the commodities (oil) imploded in price, traders were forced by margin calls to exit positions. The borrowed (shorted) dollars were paid back (covered) and has caused the rally in the dollar.>

http://normanpilon.com/2015/01/07/r...

Jan-20-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <OhioChessFan: <visay> is there any chance the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient?>

<visay: If the Earth is young and life created per Genesis, then any discussion over three billion old fossils is moot. They can't be 3 billion years old. >

Is there any chance the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient?

Jan-20-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <OhioChessFan: <OhioChessFan: <visay> is there any chance the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient?>

<visay: If the Earth is young and life created per Genesis, then any discussion over three billion old fossils is moot. They can't be 3 billion years old. >

Is there any chance the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient?>

But I do believe that the Earth is ancient. However, if your thesis is correct and the Earth isn't then yes, the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient.

Jan-20-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: All right, you caught me by surprise.
Jan-20-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <OhioChessFan: <OhioChessFan: <visay> is there any chance the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient?>

<visay: If the Earth is young and life created per Genesis, then any discussion over three billion old fossils is moot. They can't be 3 billion years old. >

Is there any chance the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient?>

If your thesis is correct and the Earth isn't ancient then yes, the reason an early life on an ancient earth can't be explained is that the earth isn't ancient. Chances are 100%.

What are the chances that the earth isn't ancient? The thesis that the earth is ancient is a hypothesis after all. It isn't about calculating chances. Rather even if there is just one clear evidence disproving the thesis that the earth is ancient, then it's not ancient. That's how the scientific method works. You try to disprove your thesis, and if every new observation or experimental data can't, the thesis is strengthened.

So far I haven't seen any clear irrefutable evidence that disproves the thesis that the earth is ancient, and many that tend to support it.

Jan-20-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <OhioChessFan> You might want to scroll up and read the discussion here on the scientific method. I was wondering why the scientific method mostly works in our Universe. Is there some Universal law or rule that makes it work?

For the field of physics and chemistry and other 'hard' sciences, the scientific method AFAIK always works. But I am not that certain that it works 100% of the time in cases where free will is involved. I believe that it's why it's so hard to predict future human actions, and in the 'soft' sciences such as sociology and political science.

Jan-26-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: http://www.icna.org.br/sites/defaul...

Go to page 20 titled

Balance Of CO2 and O2 in Pig iron Production

In summary, if one uses plantation tree charcoal as the reducing agent in iron smelters, you eventually net more CO2 sequestration and more O2 production into the atmosphere. It's not that detailed but it's the most detailed calculation so far that I have encountered in the internet.

In Eastern European politics:

Something peculiar seems to be happening in Hungary. Is the leadership veering off EU-NATO and becoming more neutral?

And in Greece. What is your opinion of Tsipras and Syriza?

I already expect some reaction from the US government in Hungary and Greece.

Jan-27-15
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

<http://www.icna.org.br/sites/defaul...

Go to page 20 titled

Balance Of CO2 and O2 in Pig iron Production >

Thanks I'll read that tonight.

<In Eastern European politics:

Something peculiar seems to be happening in Hungary. Is the leadership veering off EU-NATO and becoming more neutral?>

Funny you should mention that. I posted this earlier in the day: Kenneth Rogoff

Fidesz won a landslide election a few months ago and there are already demonstrations in the streets demanding the ouster of Viktor Orbán - http://rt.com/news/219519-hungary-p.... Strangely enough, soon after Hungary started becoming more "neutral". There are already a number of Hungarian figures who have become subject to US sanctions as a result - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-....

Orban is a fairly traditional right wing politician, but he does have a sense of patriotism that tells him that he shouldn't sell his country out, and that the treatment by the US and the EU of Russia is deeply counterproductive. The cancellation of the South Stream Pipeline which was supposed to have been built through Turkey then Westward to eastern European countries including Hungary has no doubt added to the strength of Orban's argument in the eyes of some, if not in those of the US.

<And in Greece. What is your opinion of Tsipras and Syriza?>

I don't envy them. Greece is now in debt for perpetuity, with all the Republic's assets mortgaged to European banks, plus more, with continuing unemployment, a dead economy and a population that has been ready to hang every governing politician from the nearest lamp post.

Syriza is IMO Greece's last and best, if meagre chance, to extricate itself from the euro-mire of debt and austerity. But if faces the opposition of the Brussels bureaucrats, the ECB, the uncompromising stance of Germany and Finland. Germany is at least trying to be fiscally responsible in its dreadfully teutonic way, but the Finnish government just seems to want Greece to be ground into the dust. Not a nice regime, the latter.

But the problem facing Syriza is to make sufficient inroads into shaking off the control of austerity measures imposed on it <within its first term>, or it will be voted into oblivion, probably to the benefit of the likes of New Dawn. If they try and negotiate an easing of the measures and stay within the euro-swamp, they will fail.

I agree with an analyst that opined that Syriza has to take the radical approach of leaving the Eurozone, defaulting on at least some of the bail out debts, and see its future with other countries that are being targeted by the US and the EU, including the BRICS countries, Iran, Venezuela and so forth. Rolling back the austerity measures is a much more radical measure than anything Orban has done, and will attract the deadly enmity of the US, and therefore the EU.

It's big chance is that Putin's cancellation of the South Stream Pipeline could benefit Greece to the extent that it is being rerouted as the Turkstream (or Bluestream, not sure which it is being called), and that the Turkish deal with Russia will have the gas pipeline being built through Turkish territory <to the Greek border>, where it can be onsold to other European customer countries.

Aligning itself with Turkey, which seems to be politically aligned with the West including its membership of NATO while simultaneously becoming more economically linked with Russia and China, could be Greece's salvation.

But it is going to take a lot of extremely brave and determined actions by the new Syriza government to come remotely close to the stated goals of ending the ruinous austerity measures. Especially when you consider the role of the US and the West in eliminating the progressive government that came to power in Greece after WWII. Greece will be a much easier target for a colour revolution.

It can succeed, if only on an outside chance, if similar parties in other European countries such as Spain and England can seize power through the ballot box. It's not a government that will be able to enact its promised reforms without similar measures happening in the national neighbourhood.

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