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twinlark
Member since Nov-17-05
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My wrap of our Chessgames Challenge: The World vs A Nickel, 2006 against ICCF Grandmaster Arno Nickel is at User: World Team Tribute.

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>> Click here to see twinlark's game collections.

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   twinlark has kibitzed 16650 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Dec-19-14 twinlark chessforum
 
twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor> <I thought: What in the world is Russia and China thinking? Don't they know that the US will have to react?> I think the point is that Russia and China had to react before it was too late to rescue themselves from encroaching encirclement and ...
 
   Dec-16-14 Ngoc Truongson Nguyen
 
twinlark: Congratulations to GM Nguyen winning the Vietnamese Championship.
 
   Dec-16-14 Kenneth Rogoff (replies)
 
twinlark: <al wazir> <Sometimes I wonder if democracy really is the way to go.> I've thought that also. Emerging democracies have the problem of contending with the failure of democracy in the USA through its capture by corporate kleptocrats. Not in itself a problem except ...
 
   Nov-30-14 Wei Yi (replies)
 
twinlark: <Gata Kamsky might be the record holder. He is the youngest to enter top 10 (at #8), only a month after his 16th birthday.> Before he even had his GM title!
 
   Nov-26-14 Samuel Sevian (replies)
 
twinlark: GM at 13! The only GM in the world aged under 15. Congratulations.
 
   Nov-26-14 Carlsen-Anand World Championship (2014) (replies)
 
twinlark: <But does being a staunched communist necessarily make one a good dinner guest?> But does being a staunched communist necessarily make one a lousy dinner guest?
 
   Nov-23-14 Yuri Kuzubov (replies)
 
twinlark: Congratulations on GM Kuzubov winning the Ukrainian championship ahead of a very strong field. Winning his last round game after a loss in the previous round was especially gutsy. Well done.
 
   Nov-18-14 Ju Wenjun (replies)
 
twinlark: Good questions. I suppose it depends upon the players affected and their federations to notify FIDE. I don't think FIDE would initiate the adjustments, merely enable them.
 
   Nov-16-14 Carlsen vs Anand, 2014 (replies)
 
twinlark: <SirRuthless> I wouldn't die in a ditch defending my predictions, but I would say that the loss by Carlsen to Anand in the rapid game was a blunder by him, rather than being outwitted or outplayed by Anand. The same can be said of Game 6 of course, only doubly so... And yes,
 
   Nov-10-14 Domdaniel chessforum (replies)
 
...
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 232 OF 232 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Oct-20-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

<I have read of the alternative view, that these large scale structures may be caused by quantum fluctuations in the ancient Universe when it was still microscopically nano-small and miniscule enough to be hugely affected by uncertainly effects.>

Problem with this line of reasoning is that it resembles and opportunistic retrofit to a shaky theory. If this is the case, then the case for inflation falls by the wayside, which is fairly key to the BBT.

In any case, the r-process dilemma continues to confound.

Oct-24-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/china-laun...

<China Launches AIIB to Rival World Bank Without US Allies After Pressure from Washington>

It was only matter of time. This is another threat to the status of the US fiat petrodollar as reserve currency of the world.

If the petrodollar falls, US still has other means of control, and the potentially strongest one is the US military. It might be used more and more openly as other means of control begin to fail. More wars of a more dangerous nature?

The value of the fiat petrodollar, after it's separation from gold in President Nixon's time, fundamentally is backed by an energy source, specifically oil. There is a possible solution. Alternative energy sources, and IMO the most economically viable one is 4rth generation nuclear plants that can use thorium and the ever accumulating transuranic nuclear wastes of present-day 2nd and 3rd generation nuclear plants.

I keep on looking at possible US government projects as huge as the Los Alamos atomic bomb project that brought humanity to the nuclear age, but there doesn't seem to be any. Most research and development into alternative energy sources in the US seem to be done by private institutions, which IMO is insufficient.

Oct-26-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visyanbraindoctor>

You might be interested in this articlea about what is happening in Kobane written by that firebrand, Pepe Escobar: http://www.vineyardsaker.co.nz/2014...

Oct-26-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <twinlark> Evidently PKK-YPG ideology is being influenced recently by Kropotkin and other libertarians. I based much of the theoretical constitution that I previously sent you on these ideas. That's one reason why I follow these events closely. I never mention the term that this set of related ideas is known historically because the term has been misunderstood to mean only 'chaos' and bomb throwing fanatics.
Oct-26-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

In other words, anarchy vs anarchism or the difference between the complete breakdown of all systems followed by chaos vs the breakdown of hierarchical systems to be genuine democratic equality based on mutual informed consent.

Oct-26-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  Thanh Phan: Thanks for being here, to remind of civil comments, love all times, Thanh
Oct-26-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <Thanh Phan> You're welcome.
Oct-27-14  Alien Math: <twinlark> from notes your comment gave her chance to notice reason and withdraw from the rogoff conflict and accept help from outside, thanks are offered
Oct-27-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <Alien Math>

Pleased to have been able to help. Hope that everything turns out and that the problems are resolved.

Oct-29-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: Kobane is still holding. Peculiarly YPG has been complaining of massive mortar shelling for some weeks now, but not about the frequent suicide truck attacks. It seems that there is nothing they can do against artillery fire because they are out-ranged and they can be hit at will. I can deduce that this makes it impossible for them to hold on to any fixed position.

Many suicide trucks AFAIK use explosives taken from artillery and tank shells. The objective difference is the mode of delivery. In the former the explosives are delivered by trucks; in the former, they are lobbed and fired into the opposition directly. Obviously the latter is more efficient; just shoot the explosives right smack into the enemy. So suicide cars and truck bombs are probably used for the psychological effect.

Firat is reporting a new assault wave, accompanied by heavy mortar shelling. Kobane should eventually fall if the Kurds don't receive any new weapons and ammo, but given what they have, they are holding remarkably well. I believe that as an army, they are performing way much better than the IA or the regular SAA units against the same enemy.

Nov-03-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** World Chess Championship Moves Prediction Contest **

Conducted by the Legendary <chessmoron> and hosted at Graceland, home of Elvis. Click on Elvis for details.

Nov-15-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: http://en.itar-tass.com/world/759835

I shall take this report with a grain of salt. At any rate, can satellites video-record or take high resolution pictures of a jet fighter firing a missile? I have never seen anything like it.

Dec-15-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: I have read there has been a hostage taking by fundamentalists in Sidney. I hope everything turns out right. This phenomenon is not unusual here and often turns out bad.

The war in Donbass seems to have settled down into some kind of low intensity conflict, with no end in sight. I am wondering if Kiev will launch an offensive come spring.

Dec-15-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

Yes. The timing is interesting. This happens at the same time as a Budget review that announced 3 billion dollars would be cut from the aid budget, some going to security and defence.

Then by pure coincidence, a security situation develops in the form of a hostage siege in a chocolate shop. Although it is a State (provincial) police operation, the Australian PM, who is about as popular as leprosy right now, appears on TV twice in a couple of hours to make portentous statements of reassurance.

The whole thing is live on TV on all channels for much of the afternoon, with communications to and from (via Twitter) Obama.

The perpetrator is some guy who styled himself a muslim cleric (he wasn't one), who gets shot dead by the SWAT team storming the shop once a couple of shots are heard, with two of the 17 hostages turning up dead.

The local muslim associations are distraught and they cooperated fully with the authorities to end the siege.

Personally, I'm going to wait and see how this develops. There is something not right here.

Dec-15-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

Yet sometimes good things happen, including the rise of the #illridewithyou messages across the country in the last few hours: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/martin-pl...

Dec-15-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <with two of the 17 hostages turning up dead.> Just read this. I am sorry for this. It's almost intolerably painful for the families.

By your description, it seems to be a 'lone wolf' incident.

Dec-15-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

We prefer to call it a "mad dog" incident.

Dec-15-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: https://www.quantamagazine.org/2014...

I found this in your post in Rogoff's page.

The article seems to me as having an element of media hype up. I have been reading various forms of this thesis intermittently for sometime, and as one commenter correctly says, it's actually Prigogyne’s thesis, which I first read about more than 10 years ago. It's not as if it's a new discovery. Prigogyne was honored for it with a Nobel prize in the 1970s. And if anything, the journalist should honor this great scientist's name in the headlines too. Something like "The Inevitability of Life? More Research Being Done on Prigogyne's Ideas".

Dec-16-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

Yes that's true, and I believe Prigogyne was acknowledged in the article. Also, in the comments section there are a few other antecedents mentioned.

I think England i smentioned as he fleshes out the thesis a bit more than Prigogyne and the others, although I daresay the details are in the scientific papers rather than in the article.

Dec-18-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: The new papers probably further elaborate on the mathematical details.

From what I understand, Prigogyne's idea is still quite general. On the basis of thermodynamics it proves that more complex structures can and would inevitably arise from the simpler components of a system as long as energy is bring inputted into the system, even if it is an open system. But no details on how RNA and DNA, and protein enzymes are created. Apart from the controversial viruses and prions, all life forms as we know it have RNA or DNA and enzymes.

IMO all theories of the origin of Earthly life will sooner or late have to explain how self-replicating nucleotides evolved, specifically RNA and DNA. Once the step to self-replicating nucleotides has been taken, life would have been definitively created.

Dec-18-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: I also read some of your discussion on 'democracy'. The original Greek idea is participative democracy. Most of the population of a society can vote directly and run society directly. Note that this could be done in small Greek city states wherein most of the adult freemen population could meet in a single large area.

What we have now is so-called representative democracy; our representatives that we vote in do it for us. It is the only fundamental form of democracy that can be practiced if a society has lots of people in it. Obviously a hundred thousand people can't meet under one roof on a regular basis. Even in Greek and Roman times, the fundamental contradiction of representative democracy became apparent- patronage politics. Your representatives can buy your votes with money, favors, all sorts of circuses and deceptions (including the media hype and showbiz that are in vogue since the beginning of mass media and communication), and they can also be bought in turn by lobby groups, specially those with the capital and/or the most attractive ideologies. Inevitably the phenomenon of elite classes, dictatorships, oligarchies, kleptocracies (as you put it), theocracies, cronyism, despotism, extreme nationalism and fascism, and so on keep on recurring. All these are related. They are phenomena that tend to overly centralize control; and ultimately kill the ideal of democracy.

IMO participative democracy can only by approximated, but not ideally realized, and it can only be approximated in small societies. You might have noticed that I elaborated on my speculations on this in the paper that I gave you some time ago.

Dec-18-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

<You might have noticed that I elaborated on my speculations on this in the paper that I gave you some time ago.>

Very vividly.

In the modern nation state, possibly the closest there is to a participatory democracy must be the Swiss canton model, which of course you're aware of.

The earliest Soviet system was meant to be a layered bottom-up mode of direct democracy, but again all sorts of technical and political difficulties intervened to quickly leave only the shell of that style of governance.

How to turn it around is almost impossible to contemplate in my opinion. The representative system of democracy is itself becoming an empty shell for the reasons you enumerate.

My outlook has become increasingly pessimistic, to the extent that I hope any form of democracy will survive the coming decades. I see the possibility of post industrial militarised feudalism, garrison style states, and ongoing conflict throughout the globe so long as private military and energy corporations, enabled by financial corporations, continue to dominate with their "philosophy" of profit über alles. How the US itself will turn out is one of the pivotal questions IMO, for the reasons I gave on the Rogoff page.

The alternative trading systems that Russia, the East and much of Latin America and Africa are trying to build with the Eurasian Customs Union and other means is imo one of the main catalysts of the extreme military and economic expansionism now being undertaken by the US. The BRICS, SCO and other non-Western economic alliances cannot be tolerated. The moment the dollar ceases to be the world's reserve currency is the moment the US collapses, hence the all out political and economic attack on Russia, to be followed by China.

Dec-19-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  visayanbraindoctor: <The earliest Soviet system was meant to be a layered bottom-up mode of direct democracy, but again all sorts of technical and political difficulties intervened to quickly leave only the shell of that style of governance.>

It did not work because decision making again got centralized in the 'higher' bodies of elected representatives. The fact that democratic centralism encouraged minority opinions to conform to the majority in order to arrive unanimously at a decision made things doubly worse. If you did not agree, you had to criticize (self brainwash?) yourself in order to make you change your own mind. It became a recipe for centralized power that tolerated no dissension. Just my opinion.

When Kropotkin and his fellows criticized this obvious centralizing tendency, they ended up the first ones to get suppressed.

http://rt.com/news/210883-ukraine-f...

<American, Georgian & Lithuanian get key jobs in Ukraine’s new govt>

http://www.ibtimes.com/us-russia-re...

<US-Russia Relations: Obama Signs Bill Giving Weapons To Ukraine, Allowing Economic Sanctions Against Russia>

The present neo-colonial post WW2 world IMO is marked and defined by indirect economic control by multinationals (military, industrial, agricultural, banking and finance organizations that span the globe) and the imposition of the US dollar as the international reserve currency (which was further transformed into the fiat petrodollar in the 1970s). If indirect economic control fails in case of the collapse of the petrodollar, I see the only alternative for means of control going back to direct military action.

I have read some statements by veteran cold war diplomats on the US involvement in Ukraine. Many of them seem shocked because to them getting directly involved in Ukraine was unthinkable as it courts a nuclear war. Some of them must have counseled the present US administration of the dangers of their foreign policy. Yet if one looks at the news above, things don't seem to be deescalating.

When I first read of <BRICS, SCO and other non-Western economic alliances> I was astonished. It seemed to me a direct attack on the status of the petrodollar and US dominated financial institutions. As you say a <clear and present danger> to the dominant US position in today's geopolitics. I thought: What in the world is Russia and China thinking? Don't they know that the US will have to react?

On hindsight, perhaps Russia and China should have quietly and more slowly hammered out more trade deals like the ones they just inked this year. Tried to wean themselves off from dependency on US dominated international financing and trading systems more gradually. Develop fourth generation nuclear plants and other alternative sources of energy more fully. To some US hawks, the launching of BRICS might be akin to a declaration of war.

The US reaction seems a bit delayed but now it's apparently in full swing, as you say <the extreme military and economic expansionism now being undertaken by the US>. What will happen when NATO reaches the Russian-Ukrainian border, and places nuclear missiles there? It would be worse than the Jupiter missiles being placed in Turkey from Russia's perspective, and we know what happened (or nearly happened) after. Frightful scenario but there seems to be powers that are pushing for this. Military action when economic means of control fail.

Dec-19-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

Indeed. The elephant in the lounge room with the whole scenario is the likelihood of the US employing the Samson Option.

There have to be domestic developments in the US that prevent such a scenario, as external pressures will not work.

Dec-19-14
Premium Chessgames Member
  twinlark: <visayanbraindoctor>

<I thought: What in the world is Russia and China thinking? Don't they know that the US will have to react?>

I think the point is that Russia and China had to react before it was too late to rescue themselves from encroaching encirclement and domination. The push back had to come at some time, and the timing was more or less forced on them.

The global Monroe Doctrine of full spectrum dominance has been on the US music sheet for a long time. This meant inevitably grinding down all opposition to allow full access to global resources by its corporations.

I think the non-aligned world (ie: the non-West) has simply had enough. Too many countries have been destroyed, and too many lives and livelihoods lost to imperial rapacity.

In other words, it's now or never. What is happening now will determine the path of history for centuries.

I'm not sure if you know of these links, but they provide excellent news that is not Western MSM: http://www.telesurtv.net/english/ and http://thebricspost.com/

The latter in particular will provide an insight into the scope and rapidity of Russian and Chinese trade and deals. A lot is happening, and most of it is not reported in the Western press for all the usual reasons.

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