< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 283 OF 532 ·
|Sep-30-11|| ||WannaBe: "Ladies and gentlemen, Elvis and the Fat Lady have left the building!"|
|Sep-30-11|| ||WannaBe: Reading some of the pages on espn.com and came across this new sportsism...|
"Pulling a Red Sox", if your team blew a 20-0 half time lead (e.g. Minnesota) during the post game, D. McNabb may say: "Dude, we totally pulled a Red Sox!"
Also, Det-Dal, 'Boys are favoured by 3 points at home, (pretty much home field adv.) Total O/U is 47.
The Madden simulation have Detroit winning by 3.
To view all the NFL week 4's simulation: http://espn.go.com/espn/thelife/vid...
|Sep-30-11|| ||Phony Benoni: Time to get serious:
Yankees beats Tigers in 4. Tigers have to get dominating starts from Verlander and Fister; any slip-up will be fatal. Too fragile a bid. Besides, I'm always wrong.
Texas beats Tampa Bay in 5. Texas has better starting pitching than you think, and should be able to score easier.
Philadelphia over St. Louis in 3. St. Louis sneaked in on the basis of Atlanta's collapse, and the Phillies seem by far the class of the NL.
Somebody from Arizona over somebody from Wisconsin in 5. Nobody will pay any attention, but I think Milwaukee is still a year or two away from maturity.
|Sep-30-11|| ||keypusher: <wanna be>
thanks for that link. This is the kind of simulation picture they choose for you when you are 0-3:
|Sep-30-11|| ||Phony Benoni: There's an interesting daily feature at BaseballReference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/). Down a bit in the left column are a dozen thumbnail pictures of players from the old and even older days. You might find it amusing to click over there to see who you do or don't recognize.|
|Sep-30-11|| ||WannaBe: <keypusher> You are in NY, tell the rain to stop, order it to stop! I want the game to end before bars in NY make their last call (4 AM).|
|Sep-30-11|| ||keypusher: <wanna be> I am at work, I don't see why other people should be enjoying themselves.|
|Sep-30-11|| ||WannaBe: Okay, okay, nothing to see here, please go away!! Game will resume tomorrow, with no traveling day (Like NY -> Det is a long flight... Sheesh!)|
|Oct-01-11|| ||keypusher: I wonder if the higher purpose of this season is to convince the world that Joe Maddon is a genius.|
After Moneyball there will be an appetite for a few more baseball movies. Wouldn't be surprised if one was about that guy.
|Oct-01-11|| ||Jim Bartle: Terry Francona is out at Boston. About time, I say. How many World Series wins did he bring to the traditional power? Only two. Compare that to his illustrious predecessors.|
|Oct-01-11|| ||Phony Benoni: Someone had to take the fall, and Terry Francona can't play left field. He'll pop up elsewhere, though I wonder what positions will be open. |
The White Sox might not be a bad fit for him. I can already see the headline: "Changing Sox".
|Oct-01-11|| ||Jim Bartle: "He'll pop up elsewhere, though I wonder what positions will be open."|
I think that was the problem. Far too many Red Sox players popped up.
|Oct-01-11|| ||WannaBe: Bwahahahahahahahahah!!!|
|Oct-01-11|| ||technical draw: The Yankees were winning the world series against the Red Sox 3-0. Finally losing 4 in a row and ending up losing the series 3-4. Babe Ruth put a course on the Sox and just waited for the right time. And that was last month!|
|Oct-01-11|| ||technical draw: course=curse...|
|Oct-01-11|| ||Phony Benoni: <td> The Red Sox played the Yankees in the World Series? I knew the Eastern Media Conglomerate ruled baseball, but that is going too far.|
|Oct-01-11|| ||technical draw: <Phony> Ooops! I meant the AlCS...You're pretty
|Oct-01-11|| ||Deus Ex Alekhina: When the Bosox had a 9 game lead in the run for the wildcard, they were shown on the ESPN page as having a 99.6% probability to get into the playoffs. I wonder if that translated into the Vegas betting line? If so, then someone could have made a killing by betting against them.|
|Oct-01-11|| ||Bengambit: Hey,Phony Benoni,BenGambit here,i'm from Detroit,eastside,westside,all over.I hope the Tigers get away from the Yankees in that first playoff series,i really miss "Ernie Harwell" calling the games, that would have been fun to listen to,(...And here's a long belt to right and it's long gone,Home run!,the Tigers win it!!!)|
|Oct-01-11|| ||Shams: <Deus> Yeah, but you just know Vegas is going to fleece you on a longshot like that. Assuming ESPN's numbers are gospel, that would put the true odds at slightly more than 200/1, but I doubt you could have gotten 100/1 for it at a sportsbook.|
|Oct-01-11|| ||Phony Benoni: Yankees starting to show why they are such a good team. Fister had them baffled the first time through the lineup, but they are just too professional to be fooled forever.|
|Oct-01-11|| ||OhioChessFan: Whereas I think that is all a bunch of sports analyst tripe. They are such a good team because they have bought such good players. If nobody gets a hit for 3, 4, 5, 20, innings, they will inevitably get many more hits than expected. We can ex post facto attribute that to "figuring out" a pitcher, but we could just as easily suggest it is mere regressing to the mean.|
|Oct-02-11|| ||technical draw: Darn I missed the Yankees game. Anyone know who won? (......smiles....).|
|Oct-02-11|| ||Phony Benoni: <OCF> I'm not a great admirer of sports clichés either. But the concept of "figuring out a pitcher" is one that does make a lot of sense to me, because it's part of what I feel is a very important skill in sports: the ability to adjust on-the-spot.|
In the long haul, there is no doubt "regression to the mean" takes place. Better players will have better performances. But this is not simply a mathematcial and impersonal process. In the short run, it can be accelerated through observation and adjustment.
Scouting reports and film are fine, but there's nothing like seeing a pitcher in person on a particular night. The way their ball moves may change, or they may be trying a different approach that night.
By the time a pitcher has gone through the line-up once, a team has probably seen at least 40 pitches. That's a lot of data, and a lot of adjustments can be made based on it.
The Yankees hadn't seen much of Doug Fister before tonight. The first time through the lineup his results were superb. But the Yankess observed and adjusted, and Fister didn't do a good job of making adjustments himself. Nor was this an isolated incident; this group of Yankees has a long-held reputation as patient hitters who generally go deep into the count, gathering data.
You don't have to be a talented player to learn how to adjust, nor will it turn an average player into a great one. In the long run, the talented player will have better results. But in an all-important playoff game (and is there any other kind?), where doing well in the ultimate short-run situation is vital, it can make all the difference.
|Oct-02-11|| ||hangingenprise: <phony> the only big d today is detroit's defense.
lions pull out another one and go 4 and 0.|
< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 283 OF 532 ·