This forum is currently the place to participate in game prediction contests.

<Next tournament>

Dortmund 2013 - July 25 - August 4 - 10 player single round robin.

Players: Kramnik, Caruana, Leko, Hao, Adams, Andreikin, Naiditsch, Fridman, Meier, Khenkin

<Last tournament>

Norway Chess Tournament (2013)

Official site: http://norwaychess.com/en/

== MEDAL WINNERS

• StdRnk: =<OhioChessFan>, =<jsy>, =<wordfunph>, =<lostemperor>

• 123Rnk: =<OhioChessFan>, =<pbercker>, =<jsy>, =<lostemperor>, =<siamesedream>, =<wtwz>

• BetRnk: =<poorpatzer>, =<wordfunph>, =<whiteshark>

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This contest was created and originally hosted by <cu8sfan>, but he has discontinued hosting the contests due to time constraints at work. Note that this is NOT the final standings prediction contest, which is hosted by User: lostemperor.

<OBJECTIVE>:
Have fun predicting the outcome of each game in each round, and seeing how well your predictions compare to those entered by other contestants. You win by having the best overall prediction performance.

As with the Olympics, the top 3 placeholders will be honored with 'medals' (gold, silver and bronze), and the gold medal winners will be inducted into the HALL OF FAME (see below). Truly, an unbelievable honor. (Even I don't believe it.)

There will be a few different ways to determine a winner, as discussed under "SCORING METHODS", below.

<RULES>:
1. Enter your game predictions for a round BEFORE any games for that round begin (duh). It is okay to enter predictions long in advance (e.g. you could predict all rounds at the start if you want).

2. Make sure that when you enter game predictions for a round, that you include ALL games in that round, within a single post. If you miss one game, all of your predictions for that round will be ignored.

3. You may change your predictions for a round by re-submitting ALL of your predictions for that round (you must re-submit predictions for all games in the round, even if you changed a prediction for only one game).

4. Keep in mind that I'm using software to process all of the prediction posts. If you enter a post that 'looks' like game predictions, it will be counted as game predictions. If your prediction post contains typos, they become subject to my interpretation of your intent. But if the intent strikes me as being ambiguous, then I must reject your predictions for that game, and thus for that whole round -- so please be careful.

5. A post containing predictions should have one line for each game prediction. The line should be of the form:

    [whiteplayer] - [blackplayer] [outcome]

Here are some examples:
    Anand - Topalov 1/2
    Leko - Kramnik 1-0
    Adams - Polgar 0-1
DON'T forget the hyphen between the player's names.
(The software can usually figure out what you mean if you deviate a *little* from this form...)

<SCORING METHODS>
There are 3 different scoring methods, which means that there are actually 3 contests in one. Consequently, we could have as many as 3 different winners (or perhaps one triple-crown winner!)

1. Standard Ranker
This is the traditional contest that <cu8sfan> developed. The winner is simply the person who finishes with the most correct predictions.

2. 1-2-3 Ranker
This contest makes it is more rewarding to correctly predict the outcome of a decisive game than a drawn game. You earn 1 point for correctly predicting a draw, but 2 points for correctly predicting a white win, and 3 points for correctly predicting a black win. The winner is the person ending up with the most points.

3. Betting Ranker
This contest gives greater rewards to those who have a knack for predicting upsets (i.e. games that most other people thought would have a different outcome). Each game prediction is treated as a $1 wager. All of the money wagered on that game is divided up equally to those who correctly predicted its outcome. If you're the only one who got it right, you've hit the jackpot! The winner is the person ending up with the most $$$.

<Notes on Scoring Methods>

For the "Standard Ranker" and "1-2-3 Ranker" reports, you will notice that there are four "pseudo-contestants", which serve as benchmarks for comparison of prediction performance. These are as follows:

1. WHITER = Always predicts white to win.
2. BLACKER = Always predicts black to win.
3. DRAWER = Predicts every game to be drawn.
4. MONKEY = Simulates a monkey that just picks white, black or draw at random, with equal chances for each outcome.

<Miscellaneous comments>:

• My ability to process predictions and post results may be spotty at times. I'll do them as soon as I can -- but I have a number of other things are higher priority. :-)

• I am not always online when the games for a round begin. It would be helpful to me if someone who IS online when the games begin to post a message in this forum simply stating that the games have begun. This lets me know the cut-off point for accepting new predictions for that round.

• TIP: It's easy to get busy and neglect to enter your predictions on time. If so, you'll miss a round, which greatly diminishes your chances of winning. Avoid this by entering a few rounds of predictions in advance. You can always revise them later if you like. :-)

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

<<> GAME PREDICTION HALL OF FAME <>>

10 6 5 <Legend> Wij13:StdRnk(2t) / Bil12:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1t) / Dor12:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2t) / Wij12:StdRnk(3t) / Tal11:123Rnk(2t)+BetRnk(3) / Dor11:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1) / Wij11:StdRnk(1t) / Dor09:StdRnk(3t) / Dor08:StdRnk(2t) / Lin08:StdRnk(1) / WCC07:StdRnk(3t) / Dor07:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1t)+BetRnk(2) / Wij07:123Rnk(1t)+StdRnk(2t) / Dor06:BetRnk(3)

8 4 2 <su3eichfeld> Wij13:BetRnk(2) / Bie12:BetRnk(3) / Dor11:StdRnk(3) / Lin10:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1t)+BetRnk(2) / Tal09:123Rnk(1t)+BetRnk(1) / Pea09:123Rnk(1t)+StdRnk(2t)+BetRnk(2) / Dor09:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1t)+BetRnk(1)

8 2 5 <lostemperor> Nor13:StdRnk(3t)+123Rnk(3t) / Wij13:BetRnk(3) / Dor10:StdRnk(3t) / Lin10:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1t) / Wij10:123Rnk(1t) / Mte09:123Rnk(2t) / Bie08:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1) / Lin07:123Rnk(2t)+StdRnk(3t) / Dor06:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(1)

8 2 <SloVice> WCC13:BetRnk(3) / Wij13:123Rnk(1)+StdRnk(2t) / Wij12:BetRnk(1) / Bil11:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(1) / Pea10:BetRnk(1) / Dor10:123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(1)+StdRnk(3t)

7 4 <NakoSonorense> Wij10:BetRnk(1) / Lin09:BetRnk(1) / Wij09:BetRnk(3) / Bie08:BetRnk(1) / Dor08:BetRnk(1) / Mte08:BetRnk(1)+123Rnk(2t) / Lin08:123Rnk(1)+StdRnk(2t)+BetRnk(2) / Wij08:BetRnk(1) / Bie07:123Rnk(2)

7 2 <virginmind> Wij13:123Rnk(3) / Bil12:StdRnk(1t) / Baz11:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(2) / Wij11:123Rnk(2) / Mte09:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(1) / Mte07:BetRnk(1)

5 6 5 <SwitchingQuylthulg> WCC13:BetRnk(2) / Bil12:BetRnk(1)+123Rnk(2t) / Wij12:BetRnk(3) / Tal11:123Rnk(2t)+StdRnk(3) / Dor11:BetRnk(1)+123Rnk(2t) / Baz11:StdRnk(3t) / Wij11:StdRnk(1t)+BetRnk(2) / Pea10:StdRnk(1t) / Dor10:BetRnk(3) / Mte09:BetRnk(2) / Bie08:BetRnk(3) / Bie07:BetRnk(1)

5 <messachess> Lin09:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(2) / Wij09:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1) / Wij08:123Rnk(1)

4 4 9 <chessmoron> WCC13:StdRnk(3t) / Bil12:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1t) / Bie12:StdRnk(3)+123Rnk(3) / Bil11:StdRnk(2)+123Rnk(3) / Baz11:StdRnk(3t) / Dor10:StdRnk(1t) / Wij10:StdRnk(2)+123Rnk(3t) / Tal09:StdRnk(3t)+123Rnk(3t) / Wij09:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2t) / Lin08:BetRnk(3) / Wij08:StdRnk(2t)

4 3 2 <zarg> Dor10:StdRnk(3t) / Wij10:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1t) / Tal09:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1t) / Pea09:StdRnk(2t)+BetRnk(3) / Lin09:StdRnk(2)+123Rnk(2t)

4 4 <Where is my mind> Pea09:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1t)+BetRnk(1) / Dor09:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(3t)+BetRnk(3) / Mte09:123Rnk(2t) / Lin09:StdRnk(3t) / Bie08:StdRnk(3t)

4 2 <kolobok> Dor08:123Rnk(3t) / Bie07:StdRnk(1) / Dor07:123Rnk(1t)+BetRnk(1)+StdRnk(3t) / Lin07:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(2t)

3 4 5 <cromat> Dor12:123Rnk(2t) / Dor10:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2t) / Lin10:StdRnk(3t)+123Rnk(3t) / Dor09:123Rnk(1t)+StdRnk(3t) / Dor08:StdRnk(2t) / Dor07:StdRnk(3t)+123Rnk(3t) / Dor06:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2t)

3 3 <nfazli> Dor12:123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(2) / Tal11:BetRnk(1) / Bil11:BetRnk(2)+StdRnk(3t) / Wij09:BetRnk(1)+123Rnk(2t)

3 2 10 <OhioChessFan> Nor13:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1) / Bil11:StdRnk(3t) / Baz11:StdRnk(3t) / Wij11:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(3) / Wij10:123Rnk(3t) / Tal09:StdRnk(3t)+123Rnk(3t) / Mte09:123Rnk(2t)+StdRnk(3) / Lin09:BetRnk(3) / Dor08:123Rnk(3t) / Wij08:BetRnk(2) / Bie07:123Rnk(3)

3 2 <blade2012> WCC13:StdRnk(3t)+123Rnk(3t) / Bie12:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1t)+BetRnk(1)

3 <WinKing> Dor12:StdRnk(1t) / Tal11:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1)

2 5 2 <yalie> Dor11:StdRnk(2)+123Rnk(2t) / Wij08:123Rnk(3)+BetRnk(3) / WCC07:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2t) / Bie07:StdRnk(2t) / Lin07:123Rnk(1)+StdRnk(2)

2 4 3 <percyblakeney> Wij09:StdRnk(3) / Bie08:123Rnk(2t)+StdRnk(3t) / Mte08:StdRnk(1) / Wij08:StdRnk(2t) / WCC07:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2t) / Mte07:StdRnk(2t)+123Rnk(3)

2 3 2 <DCP23> Lin10:BetRnk(3) / Mte09:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2t)+BetRnk(3) / Lin09:123Rnk(2t) / Lin07:BetRnk(1) / Wij07:BetRnk(2)

2 3 2 <YouRang> Bie12:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1t) / Dor12:BetRnk(3) / Bil11:123Rnk(2) / Pea10:123Rnk(2t) / Bie07:BetRnk(3) / Dor06:123Rnk(2t)

2 3 <nimh> WCC13:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1) / Bie08:BetRnk(2) / Dor08:StdRnk(2t)+123Rnk(2)

2 2 3 <Ragh> Tal11:BetRnk(2) / Wij11:BetRnk(1) / Dor10:StdRnk(3t) / Tal09:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(3t) / Pea09:123Rnk(3) / Bie07:StdRnk(2t)

2 2 <iron maiden> Lin08:StdRnk(2t) / Wij08:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(2) / WCC07:StdRnk(3t) / Wij07:StdRnk(1)

2 2 <lmreith> Bie08:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2t) / Bie07:123Rnk(1)+StdRnk(2t)

2 <Ziggurat> Dor08:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(2)

2 <Barok Espinosa> Bil12:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1t)+BetRnk(3)

2 <Winter> Pea10:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(3)

2 <hitman84> Mte07:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1)

2 <ooda> Wij12:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(1)

2 2 <wordfunph> Nor13:BetRnk(2)+StdRnk(3t) / Wij12:StdRnk(3t) / Tal11:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2t)

2 <amadeus> Pea10:123Rnk(2t)+StdRnk(3t) / Wij07:123Rnk(1t)+StdRnk(2t)

2 <mikejaqua> Mte08:123Rnk(1)+StdRnk(2)+BetRnk(3) / WCC07:BetRnk(2)

2 <Golden Executive> WCC13:StdRnk(1t)+123Rnk(2) / Tal11:123Rnk(2t)

2 <PinnedPiece> Dor12:BetRnk(1)+123Rnk(2t)+StdRnk(3) / Dor11:BetRnk(3)

2 <suenteus po 147> Wij10:BetRnk(2) / Dor08:BetRnk(3) / WCC07:123Rnk(1)+BetRnk(3)

<karpkasp> WCC13:BetRnk(1) / Wij12:BetRnk(2)

<Karposian> Wij13:StdRnk(1)+123Rnk(2)

2 <WannaBe> WCC13:StdRnk(3t)+123Rnk(3t) / Wij13:BetRnk(1)

<ahmadov> WCC07:BetRnk(1) / Wij07:123Rnk(3t)

<imag> Lin10:BetRnk(1)+123Rnk(3t)

<poorpatzer> Nor13:BetRnk(1) / Wij11:BetRnk(3)

<sakii> Lin08:BetRnk(1)+123Rnk(3t)

<twinlark> Wij07:BetRnk(1)+123Rnk(3t)

<chesssantosh> Baz11:BetRnk(1)

<Civhai> Wij11:123Rnk(1)

************* Multiple Crowns **************

* Triple Crowns: <blade2012> (Bie12), <lostemperor> (Dor06), <SloVice> (Bil11), <su3eichfeld> (Dor09), <virginmind> (Mte09), <Where is my mind> (Pea09)

* Double Crowns: <Legend> (Bil12+Dor11+Dor07), <lostemperor> (Lin10+Bie08), <messachess> (Lin09+Wij09), <su3eichfeld> (Lin10+Tal09), <zarg> (Wij10+Tal09), <Barok Espinosa> (Bil12), <chessmoron> (Bil12), <hitman84> (Mte07), <kolobok> (Dor07), <nimh> (WCC13), <OhioChessFan> (Nor13), <ooda> (Wij12), <SloVice> (Dor10), <virginmind> (Baz11), <WinKing> (Tal11), <Winter> (Pea10), <YouRang> (Bie12), <Ziggurat> (Dor08)

************ Crowns by Contest *************

* StdRnk Crowns: 6 <Legend>; 3 <chessmoron> <lostemperor> <virginmind>

* 123Rnk Crowns: 4 <Legend> <lostemperor> <su3eichfeld>; 3 <SloVice> <messachess>; 2 <zarg> <virginmind>

* BetRnk Crowns: 6 <NakoSonorense>; 4 <SloVice>; 3 <SwitchingQuylthulg>; 2 <virginmind> <nfazli> <su3eichfeld>

************* Crowns by Year ***************

* 2006 (1 tournament): 3 <lostemperor>

* 2007 (6 tournaments): 4 <kolobok>; 3 <Legend>; 2 <yalie> <hitman84>

* 2008 (5 tournaments): 5 <NakoSonorense>; 2 <lostemperor> <Ziggurat>

* 2009 (6 tournaments): 6 <su3eichfeld>; 4 <Where is my mind> <messachess>; 3 <virginmind>; 2 <zarg>

* 2010 (4 tournaments): 3 <SloVice> <lostemperor>; 2 <zarg> <Winter> <su3eichfeld>

* 2011 (5 tournaments): 3 <SloVice> <Legend>; 2 <SwitchingQuylthulg> <WinKing> <virginmind>

* 2012 (4 tournaments): 3 <Legend> <blade2012>; 2 <ooda> <Barok Espinosa> <YouRang> <chessmoron>

* 2013 (3 tournaments): 2 <nimh> <OhioChessFan>

********** Crowns by Tournament ************

* Baz (1 year): 2 <virginmind>

* Bie (3 years): 3 <blade2012>; 2 <YouRang> <lmreith> <lostemperor>

* Bil (2 years): 3 <SloVice>; 2 <Legend> <Barok Espinosa> <chessmoron>

* Dor (7 years): 5 <Legend>; 3 <su3eichfeld> <cromat> <lostemperor>; 2 <SloVice> <Ziggurat> <kolobok>

* Lin (4 years): 2 <su3eichfeld> <NakoSonorense> <lostemperor> <messachess>

* Mte (3 years): 4 <virginmind>; 2 <hitman84>

* Nor (1 year): 2 <OhioChessFan>

* Pea (2 years): 3 <Where is my mind>; 2 <Winter>

* Tal (2 years): 2 <zarg> <WinKing> <su3eichfeld>

* WCC (2 years): 2 <nimh>

* Wij (7 years): 3 <messachess>; 2 <Legend> <NakoSonorense> <SloVice> <ooda> <zarg> <iron maiden>

== Notes:
I keep track of all medals won, but in order to appear in the hall of fame, one must win a gold () medal.

Medals: = Gold; = Silver; = Bronze

Tournaments: Baz=Bazna Kings; Bie=Biel; Bil=Bilbao; Dor=Dortmund; Lin=Linares; Mte=Mtel; Nor=Norway; Pea=Pearl Spring; Tal=Tal Memorial; WCC=World Chess Championship; Wij=Wijk Aan Zee

Contests: StdRnk=Standard Ranker; 123Rnk=1-2-3 Ranker; BetRnk=Betting Ranker

t = tie

<<> = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = <>>

Love chess.
Wish I were better at it.
USA

About my peculiar moniker, "YouRang":

There used to be a show on American TV called "The Addams Family". One of the characters was a creepy 6'9" zombie-like butler named "Lurch" (pictured in my avatar, with a rare smile). In the show, someone would summon Lurch with the bell-pull (a hangman rope), which would make a loud GONG sound, and Lurch would promptly appear and say (in a deep voice), <"You rang?"> (sample: http://www.addamsfamily.com/addams/...). Kind of a dumb show really, yet it has long had cult-like following. Recently many original episodes became available on DVD (http://www.amazon.com/Addams-Family...).

Anyway, I picked "YouRang" for my user name because I was out of my mind at the time, but I'm better now.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Glorious accomplishments:

- 2005 Co-winner of <"Best Avatar" Caissar>! (thank you! thank you!)

- 2006 Biel prediction contest (1st place [tie] in final standings prediction)

- 2006 User name "YouRang" named among top 100 TV catch-phrases (http://www.tvland.com/originals/cat...)

- 2007 Defeated GM Arno Nickel (with the help of 2000+ other members & their computers) in the classic: Chessgames Challenge: The World vs A Nickel, 2006

- 2007 Took 1st place (tie) in <lostemperor>'s Final Standing prediction contest for the Linares tournament

- 2008 Defeated GM Gert Jan Timmerman (with the help of 3000+ other members & their computers) in the classic: The World vs G Timmerman, 2007

- 2009 Achieved a draw with the black pieces in my rematch with GM Arno Nickel (with help of 2000+ other members and their computers) in the classic: Chessgames Challenge: A Nickel vs The World, 2008

- 2010 On May 6, User: thegoodanarchist spotted a license plate that said "URANGG", presumably in honor of my moniker.

- 2010 Finished in top 25 with 2,200 chessbucks in Summer leg of chessbookie. (Just 2 bets: predicted Ponomariov was winner of Dortmund, and Caruana as winner of Biel).

- 2010 Won a silver medal in 123 Ranker for the Pearl Spring tournament. (It would have been gold except <Winter> stole it with a fantastic perfect final round. Grrr...)

- 2011 Won gold in <lostemperor>'s Wijk aan Zee 2011 Final Standings prediction contest by finishing in first place for all 3 contests -- absolute ranker, least-squares ranker, and pair betting ranker! Yee-haw!

- 2011 Won silver medal in 123 Ranker for Bilbao tournament.

- 2011 I was honored in a chessvibes.com cartoon: http://www.chessvibes.com/cartoons/...! [Thanks to <Blunderdome> for finding this]

- 2011 Won gold in <lostemperor>'s Tal Memorial 2011 Final Standings prediction contest.

- 2012 A pun I suggested for for the game Akobian vs The World, 2011 ended up winning the <Best Pun> Caissar award! In that game, the World team used a queen sac to force a draw with a flourish. The pun: "Drawma Queen".

- 2012 Won silver and bronze in <lostemperor>'s Wijk Aan Zee 2012 Final Standings prediction contests.

- 2012 Won a bronze in Betting Ranker for the Dortmund 2012 tournament. A complete surprise.

- 2012 At LOOONG last, I managed to make it into my own <Game Prediction Hall of Fame> by winning two golds in Biel 2012 -- both first place ties in Standard Ranker and 123 Ranker :-)

- 2012 Won gold in <lostemperor>'s Bilbao 2012 Final Standings prediction contest.