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|Sep-30-11|| ||SimonWebbsTiger: @<visayanbraindoctor>|
that reminds me of a tourney in Denmark 20 years ago.
A really old guy was playing; he had an ELO of about 2400-2450. He lost some games, drew some and won a scintillating brilliancy. The 2600 GMs had a reverance for this 2400 "guy", despite their higher ratings and the old guy not being a pro player.
The old guy was David Bronstein.
|Sep-30-11|| ||DrMAL: I agree with your points <visayanbraindoctor> they relate to the knowledge aspect of chess I referred to earlier. However, rating is indeed some (maybe not all) metric of ability, and it should "inflate" with population growth (and has quite closely done so). Yes, <SWT> this is the main article he published. It is amazing to me he calls himself a statistician being as his doctrine rejects simple statistical facts. Regarding the old guy and his low rating, all he need do then is play more games to bring his rating up to performance level (or get a phony floor).|
|Sep-30-11|| ||DrMAL: Jeff Sonas' work is very misleading. For example, in that article he makes the statement:|
<I should point out that there were barely 1,500 active players on the January 1975 list, and that number more than tripled in ten years, to more than 4,600 active players on the January 1985 list. Nevertheless there was no inflation (using my meaning of the term). So the argument that inflation is a natural result of the general advance of chess knowledge would not explain why there was no inflation across those ten years.>
Yes, by itself this neither explains nor differs with the basic premise regarding how a bell curve fills out with increasing population, since the population considered is still quite small and a second factor is also important: Knowledge/dissemination.
During that time dissemination of higher level chess knowledge to the pool of FIDE members (or overall chess population for a better metric) was minimal, it was in fact stymied for political reasons. Moreover, the growth in knowledge has exploded with computers via engines and internet. This also has a primary effect.
The population growth of FIDE members (assuming all are active) from 1500 in 1975 to 4600 in 1985 reflects an annual increase of just under 12% (actually, 11.856%). With the same 12% growth rate this computes (from 1500 in 1975) to 45,000 in 2005 close to the actual number of active FIDE members then.
With 30 times the population the variance of a normal distribution increases by 30 times, or it's standard deviation "sigma" increases by the square root of this which is about 5.5 a large number now.
It is quite easy to fit a bell curve to a population size with a mean rating and standard deviation. To do this "back of the envelope" simply note the following ONE-SIDED probabilities http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-...
P(2sigma) = 0.02250
P(3sigma) = 0.00135
P(4sigma) = 0.00003
As an (zero-order) approximate example, suppose the mean is 1800 and sigma is 250 so that 2800 is 4 sigmas away.
At a population size of 1500, the number of people above 3 sigma, or rated above 2550 is 2 whereas at population 45,000 it is 60. And at population 45,000 there is, on average, one person above 2800, imagine that! This is crude but it shows the point.
|Sep-30-11|| ||kia0708: Kasparov's Knight play here is just spectacular.|
|Sep-30-11|| ||DrMAL: Sure is. Truly a fabulous game one of my favorite blitz.|
|Dec-26-11|| ||indoknight: i found intersting line if white play 15.Bd1 ... Bf5! 16.Qe3 Bd3 17.Re1 e4! 18.Bg4 (avoiding 18... Nxd5) f5! 19.Bh3 g5 with black very strong attacks!|
|Jan-07-13|| ||LoveThatJoker: Guess-the-Move Final Score:
Kramnik vs Kasparov, 1994.
YOU ARE PLAYING THE ROLE OF KASPAROV.
Your score: 55 (par = 53)
|Aug-18-13|| ||leka: Dear DrMal you are correct.Jeff Sonas(a Stanford masters degree in math)is an awful scientist.Sonas gives Karpov 2899 rating from Linares in 1994.Sonas is totally wrong.Karpov scored a result 11/13 84,61% and his opponents were 2729.That 84,61% 1.02 times the standard devotin 282,84 and an easy calculation 1.02x282,84+2729=3017.49 The real Karpov rating score was 3017,49 not 2899.When the rating was created they tought that an average is 1400 points and the standard devotion in 282,84.My theory is that the average is 1605.If you check J.Polgar A.Beljavski N.Short rating about 2736-And the calculation 2736,36-1605=1131,36 4x284,84=1131,36.Here we gat that Polgar is 4 times the standard devotion player(The IQ 4X15 you get 160 iq for Polgar or 24(a standard devotion) you get 196 iq for Polgar.2,2% of the population plays a level 2170 and one out of 760 plays 2453 and if you have a population of 20000 people one of them plays a level 2705,41|
|Aug-18-13|| ||leka: Actually you need 769 people then one of them plays a level 2453|
|Aug-18-13|| ||leka: Nakamura beats 2200 rating player 98-2 and if someone beats 2200 rating player 9-1 the rating to that player is 2562 rating player.Why the all people do not know the Gauss bell curve stats book? It is a shame.How Sonas and the others can not calculate.|
|Dec-14-13|| ||jdc2: <DrMal: Brilliant people realize there are others above them
and show humility to it, whereas average people are
often clueless or jealous.>
Thank you for saying that, whoever you are.
|Dec-14-13|| ||perfidious: <jdc2>: <DrMAL> is Alexandre Kretchetov. He is, regrettably, no longer active here at CG.|
|Jan-16-14|| ||wasimulkabir: I personally consider this game as "Game of the Century". Kasparov wins this game in style.|
|Sep-07-15|| ||leroquentin: I would like to hear what about 29. ... Bd4. Atacking the queen, making equal the game, but with a probably final win. After, 30.Qxd4 exf3+ 31.Nxf3 Rxd4 32.Nxd4 and Bh3+ 33.Kxh3 Rxf1. Threating Nf2+, winning a piece.|
By the way, great game Kaspa!
|Dec-19-15|| ||yurikvelo: http://pastebin.com/jjqVu203
this game multiPV
D=28, 1006 MN
1. (0.42): 15.Nb1 Nxe2+ 16.Qxe2 e4
2. = (0.17): 15.f3 f5 16.Bd1 Rf8
3. = (-0.19): 15.Kh1 e4 16.f3 e3
4. (-0.29): 15.Bd1 e4 16.Qe3 f5
5. (-0.32): 15.a4 e4 16.Rd1 Bf5
6. (-0.38): 15.Rd1 Re8 16.a4 b6
7. (-0.78): 15.a3 e4 16.Bd1 Bd4
8. (-0.81): 15.Rc1 Nxa2 16.Ra1 Nb4 <-- Kramnik played
9. (-0.83): 15.Bf3 e4 16.Bd1 Re8
10. (-0.83): 15.h3 e4 16.Bd1 Re8
11. (-0.85): 15.h4 e4 16.Bd1 Bd4
|Dec-19-15|| ||SatelliteDan: Does chessgames have a app for android?|
|May-27-16|| ||ToTheDeath: This game is a masterpiece.|
|Oct-30-16|| ||SpiritedReposte: Both <40. Kg1> and <40. Kh1> run into <Re1#> or <40. Kf1 g2+ 41. Kf2 Re1!> queens the pawn.|
|Nov-13-16|| ||Richard Taylor: After 15. Nb1 White is very slightly better.
15. Rc1 handed the advantage to Black. It is a courageous "sacrifice" as giving away or exchanging off a Q is scary always. It might have been played OTB or an idea Kasp had for some time. Either way it was a little risky. Had shock value also. Lead to typical Kasparovian tactics and more ingenuity.
Gave us all a nice game and a lesson for Kramnik who came back later and took the world championship off the old tiger...
|Apr-03-17|| ||thegoodanarchist: <leka: ....Why the all people do not know the Gauss bell curve stats book?>|
LOL probably for the same reason not everyone knows quantum mechanics.
|Jun-16-18|| ||marcwordsmith: Doesnít 29Ö. Bd5 win at once?
The bishop can't be taken because of exf3+. The queen's only square is e2. So I imagine White would respond Qe2 but now Rxf3! with the double threat of Bh6+ and Nf5+. Why is that not Game Over? If Rxf3 then exf3+ etc. If Kh1 or Kh2 then Nf5 with double threat of Nxe2 and Rh6+.
|Jun-16-18|| ||marcwordsmith: Ok
I see how White gets a piece and a rook for his queen after Kh2 (or Kh1) and after Nf5, Rxf3!
But if White responds to my Rxf3! by moving his king to the h file, then Black wins at least an exchange by checking with Rh6 and going Nf5+. Thatís not nothing either. Right?
|Jun-16-18|| ||marcwordsmith: Actually, in the line 29...Bd5 30. Qe2, Rxf3 31. Kh1 (or Kh2), Rh3+, 32. Kg2, Nf4+ 33. Rxf4, gxf4, Black has won an exchange AND a pawn and is threatening f3+ and it looks like an overwhelming position to me.|
Sorry I got my 6's and 3's, and my 5's and 4's confused in my last two comments!! But you know what I meant, right?
|Jun-16-18|| ||WorstPlayerEver: <marcwordsmith>|
Ehm.. yes 29... Bd4 is winning, but it was already solved in this thread.
|Jun-16-18|| ||marcwordsmith: oops. :-)|
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