JENTA: Today I took a larger and normal chessboard. Again: I am trying to understand the position after Carlsen's risky move <31... Bc5>
Yesterday, I intuitively suggested to white the move
<32. Bg7:>
to trade the bishops, because white's bishop is bad due to the dark-coloured pawns a5 and c3.
I suggest the following now:
<32... Rd2>
Among other things, white has no good place for the queen to defend the bishop on g7.
<33. Qg4>
Trying to sacrifice the bishop for three pawns.
There are no better possibilities:
33. Qe5 Rd1+ 34. Rd1: Qd1:+ 35. Kh2 Bd6 and black wins the queen (this possibility was a couple of times mentioned above by other commentators);
33. Qc4: Bf2:+ and white is in a checkmate threat:
34. Kh2 Qd6+ 35. Kh1 Rd1+ 36. Rd1: Qd1:+ 37. Kh2 Qg1#
or
34. Kf1 Qf5
After 33. Qg4:
<33... Bf2:+ 34. Kh2! Qg4:>
Not 34... Qd6+? 35. Kh1 and white can win.
<35. hg4: Kg7: 36. Ra4>
That's white's plan: after the exchange of the queens the pawns c4 and a6 are vulnerable.
<36... Rd3!! 37. Rc4:>
Otherwise simply 37... Rc3:
<37... Bg3+>
Black plays on the checkmate.
<38. Kh3>
The only move.
<38... Re3!>
Black plays on the zugzwang.
38... Bf4+ 39. g3! Rg3:+ is complicated, because the bishop f4 is as yet attacked by white's rook on c4.
<39. Rc6>
Now the point f4 remains without defense.
Perhaps 39. g5 is better, to save the king.
<39... Bf4+ 40. g3>
40. Kh4 Bg5+ 41. Kh5 Re1 threatening 42... Rh1#
<40... Rg3:+ 41. Kh4>
41. Kh2 Rc3:+ wins the rook.
<41... Rg2>
Threatens 41... Rh2# .
<42. g5 hg5:+ 43. Kh5 f5!>
Again: threatens mate Rh2#
<44. Rg6+ Kf7 45. Rg7+ Kg7:>
Unfortunately, white won the pawn c4 and the pawn c3 is free, so there is no stalemate:
<46. c4 Rh2#>
This calculation is 15 moves long and is not forced.
However, there is another idea of trading the queens without the sacrifice of the bishop, to attack with the rook black's pawns a6 and c4:
<32. Qg4 Qg4: 33. hg4:>
For example:
<33... f6 34. Bd4>
Here again there is a possibility to consider the sacrifice 34. Bf6: gf6: 35. Rc4 .
<34... Bd4: 35. cd4: Rd4:>
Unfortunately, I am incompetent to evaluate that rook-endgame. Perhaps
<36. Ra4 Rg4: 37. Rb4>
with the hope to play 38. Rb4-b6:a6-c6.
Personally, I would make a draw against a weaker player. An expert analysis is required.