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Daniil Dubov vs Magnus Carlsen
FIDE Online Steinitz Memorial (2020) (blitz), chess24.com INT, rd 9, May-16
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation. Rare Defenses (E90)  ·  1-0

ANALYSIS [x]

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Kibitzer's Corner
May-17-20  Ulhumbrus: After 38...Rf7 Black will lose the king and pawn ending after his a pawn falls. Thus the weakness of Black's a pawn enables White to take the seventh rank.
May-17-20  MordimerChess: Wow, really unexpected performance. Carlsen got outplayed positionally by attacking style of player.

My youtube analysis of the game:
https://youtu.be/mQLjiiSTIPw

Enjoy!

May-18-20
Premium Chessgames Member
  ajk68: I'm guessing Carlsen's mistake, 15...Rf7?, bothered him. His moves after that seem very distracted. 30...Be7, 31...Bf6 and it seems he is not thinking clearly.
May-18-20  7he5haman: It took me a while to find the win after <38...Rf7 39. Rxf7+ Kxf7>

Black seems to hold if you go after the f4-pawn with 40.Kd4 by Kf6-g5 and you cannot gain a tempo.

Equally, going after the a4-pawn with 40.Kb4, 41.Kxa4 and then running the a-pawn, Black has Kf6-e5-d4-e3-xf3 which looks like it holds.

<BUT> going after the <c7-pawn> seems to win instead, e.g.

<38...Rf7 39. Rxf7+ Kxf7 40. Kb4 Kf6> (necessary as explained above) <41. Kb5 Ke7 42. Kc6 Kd8 43. h3! h5 44. h4 Kc8> and now Black is a tempo short after <45. Kb5 Kd7 46. Kxa4 Ke7> (his King needed to be on f6 to get to the f3 pawn in time)

May-18-20  7he5haman: After all that, maybe 38...Rf7 39. Rxf7+ Kxf7 <40.Re8> wins simply, intending Ra8.

That said, neither

<38...Rf7 39. Re8 Kf6 40. Ra8 Re7 41.Rxa4 Re3+>

Nor

<38...Rf7 39. Re8 Kf6 40. Kd3 Rg7 41. Ra8 Rg2>

Look all that convincing.

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