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Nov-28-22
 | | MissScarlett: Niemann scored +1 at the US Champs over 13 rounds (U.S. Championship (2022)) , and +1 at the Fall Classic over 9 rounds (Fall Chess Classic (2022)). |
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| Nov-29-22 | | Bobby Fiske: Thank you <Scarlett>. (Memo to myself: Always refer to chess-results.com when digging into details). So here is my post, updated: THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELF
Here is a summary of all his <22> games, from his 2 last tournaments. TRP calculated with the simplified ± 400 win/lose formula: SINQUEFIELD CUP
R1-R3: = TRP 3059
+2 in 3 games. Drew Aronian, beat Shak and Magnus. R4-R9: TRP 2634
-2 in 6 games (move delay from R4)
US CHAMPIONSHIP = TRP 2699
+1 in 13 rounds (move delay all rounds)
CONCLUSION: His performance dropped considerably in the 19 games played with move relay delay. You might say the numbers are too few for statistical significance, and that Hans is not performing at his best after all the publicity. That’s why time will be the final proof. |
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Nov-29-22
| | MissScarlett: What was the TPR for the Fall Classic? Then calculate the overall rating performance for the 28 games since the defeat of Magnus. Compare that with the 28 games he played prior to the Sinquefield Cup. |
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Nov-29-22
 | | beatgiant: <Bobby Fiske>
Everyone thinks statistics is simple.
It's not valid to cherry-pick his 3 best games in a row and expect him to perform at that level constantly. Try applying that test to some other GMs and you'll "discover" a lot more "evidence of cheating." |
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| Nov-29-22 | | stone free or die: I don't understand the interpretation of the US Championship results: https://ratings.fide.com/report.pht... It seems to me that Niemann performed near 2700 level (2699), when the original assertion was that he's dropped back to being a "2600 player". Super-GM might be slightly ill-defined, but isn't it generally taken to mean 2700+? I would say that Niemann is still knocking at the door, despite the "improved" anti-cheating measures, and the turmoil of the Sinquefield Cup. |
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| Nov-29-22 | | stone free or die: <<Missy> What was the TPR for the Fall Classic?> https://2700chess.com/?per-page=100
Go to Niemann, click on the magnifying glass and you'll see the effect of the Fall Classic on his rating, -0.5. Pretty sure this means his TPR is essentially the same as his current rating - i.e. a tad less than 2698.5. |
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Nov-29-22
 | | perfidious: <zed>, quite so; Niemann performed more or less to expectation. The bit re 'dropped back to being a 2600 player' is risible; when Niemann climbs over that elusive barrier of 2700, will he magically become elite again? roflm*ao |
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| Nov-29-22 | | Bobby Fiske: <<beatgiant> It's not valid to cherry-pick his 3 best games in a row and expect him to perform at that level constantly.> It's not cherry picking. Those first 3 rounds are the games who fuled the whole controversy. Comparing the results before/after the organizer started to delay the move transmission is interesting. Statistically, it fits the picture if you think Hans cheated. <Try applying that test to some other GMs and you'll "discover" a lot more "evidence of cheating.> OK. Pls show us an example. |
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Nov-29-22
 | | chancho: For someone who says <he'll let his chess speak for itself,> his results have been not so meteoric but more like sophomoric. The guy is not the next Bobby Fischer.
And as far as the lawsuit, I've seen Magnus grinning like a cheshire cat. Doesn't look worried at all.
The Niemann effect seems to be losing its luster. |
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| Nov-29-22 | | nok: We need more math illiterate posts.
Hans Niemann (kibitz #509) |
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Nov-29-22
| | perfidious: Better math illiterate than utterly lacking in decency and humanity, as is the case in certain quarters. |
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Nov-29-22
 | | fredthebear: Like you're one to be judging others. |
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Nov-29-22
| | beatgiant: <Bobby Fiske>
< It's not cherry picking. Those first 3 rounds are the games who fuled the whole controversy.>
Carlsen started the controversy after Carlsen lost a game. You consider that a valid statistical criterion?<Pls show us an example.>
I don't have time to do this right, but let's take a quick look at some players close to Niemann on the rankings, then. Sargissian, Round 6-Round 9 of Chennai Olympiad had 3 wins and 1 draw versus Caruana, Harikrishna, Abdusattorov and Mamedyarov. Chennai Olympiad (2022)/Gabriel Sargissian Deac, Round 1-Round 3 of Superbet Romania had 2 draws and 1 win versus Nepo, Aronian and Rapport. Superbet Romania (2022)/Bogdan-Daniel Deac Artemiev, Round 16-Round 18 of Meltwater Finals had 2 wins and 1 draw versus Carlsen.
Meltwater Tour Final (2021)/Vladislav Artemiev Keymer, Round 5-Round 7 of Grand Prix Berlin had two wins and a draw versus Dubov, Dominguez Perez, and Mamedyarov. FIDE Grand Prix Leg 3 (2022)/Vincent Keymer Even without doing any math, it should be obvious from the above that it often happens that a player rated around 2700 has a performance much higher than 2700 for a small number of games in a row. |
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| Nov-29-22 | | stone free or die: What's that cliche I always trundle out?
<A number without an error-bar is a lie> This is, of course, numbers in the real world - that of measurements and statistics. We've been fudging here, never mentioning how reliable our calculations are. I think this is a casual discussion, where it's understood that TPR's are mostly just indicative, and not definitive. But there's an implicit understanding even when using it as an indicator - the TPR is meant to be calculated for the entirety of a tournament - usually requiring 9 or 10 or more games. I think using just three games for a TPR is far too few games, and really not usable even as an indicator. When <BF> asked for examples, I immediately thought of Caruana's super-human <SinqueField Cup> performance a few years ago. But I believe <beatgiant>'s examples are even better - selecting 2700 threshold players - to demonstrate the fluctuations in performance over just a small handful of games. |
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| Nov-29-22 | | Bobby Fiske: <beatgiant> Seems you missed the main point: Ofc 3 games alone, is not enough for statistical measures, but here they are combined with an additional factor: Starting from R4 the move transmission was delayed 15min.
Hans' TRP performance dropped 400 when players got isolated from spectators. |
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Nov-29-22
| | beatgiant: <Bobby Fiske>
If you agree that <3 games alone, is not enough for statistical measures> then what basis is there in the claim that his performance in the first 3 rounds (which you agree we can't use to estimate his strength) is higher than round 4 and beyond? But yes, I have seen discussions of the claim that Niemann performed better when there's no delay in transmission. From what I've seen, the claim falls apart when examined carefully. |
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Nov-29-22
| | MissScarlett: <Ofc 3 games alone, is not enough for statistical measures, but here they are combined with an additional factor: Starting from R4 the move transmission was delayed 15min.> This is why I enquired after the corresponding 28 games he played before the Sinquefield Cup. As far as I know, there were no transmission delays at these events. Unless you're proposing that Niemann never cheated OTB before Sinquefield, what happens if Niemann's recent performance is equal/superior to his pre-Sinquefield results? |
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| Nov-30-22 | | stone free or die: I think <Missy> has asked herself [sic?] a valid question. Get on it, <Missy>! . |
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Nov-30-22
| | perfidious: <zed....I think using just three games for a TPR is far too few games, and really not usable even as an indicator....> This is all fluctuation and, as you say, demonstrates nothing except how cherry-picked numbers can be used to prove, or disprove, a point anyone is trying to make without imparting actual value. |
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| Nov-30-22 | | stone free or die: BTW - when I google the <Niemann Effect>, I got this: https://www.laacgolf.com/niemann-ef... |
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Nov-30-22
| | fredthebear: Did you "Get on it, <Missy>!"? |
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| Dec-01-22 | | stone free or die: Don't forget to turn off the lights. |
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Dec-01-22
| | perfidious: Having got a public slapdown after a post which almost contributed on the chess side of things, yet could not help lapsing into trademark acerbity while being typically disingenuous, someone hereabout is evincing a sententious side. Meanwhile, I am still waiting for my cut of the $100m judgment. Might be a long wait. (laughs) |
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| Dec-01-22 | | supy: He is currently playing Llobregat with Vallejo, Yu Yangyi and Cheparinov https://www.chessdom.com/3rd-el-llo... |
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| Dec-01-22 | | EvanTheTerrible: He has crossed 2700 for the 3rd time on the live list. Let's see if it sticks this time. |
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