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Gypsy
Member since Mar-17-04 · Last seen Aug-07-22
"There Would be No Game"

--

As he got to know him, Joseph and Mary regarded Doc with something akin to love---for love feeds on the unknown and unknowable. Doc's honesty was exotic to Joseph and Mary. He found it strange. It attracted him in spite of the fact that he could not understand it. He felt that there was something he had missed, though he could not figure what it was.

One day, sitting in Western Biological, Joseph and Mary saw a chessboard and, finding that it was a game and being good at games, he asked Doc to teach him. J and M easily absorbed the characters and qualities of castles and bishops and knights and royalty and pawns. During the first game Doc was called to the phone, and when he returned he said, "You have moved a pawn of mine and your queen and knight."

"How'd you know?" the Patron asked.

"I know the game," said Doc. "Look,, Joseph and Mary, chess is possibly the only game in the world in which it is impossible to cheat."

Joseph and Mary inspected this statement with amazement. "Why not?" he demanded.

"If it were possible to cheat there would be no game," said Doc.

J and M carried this with him. It bothered him at night. He looked at it from all angles. And he went back to ask more questions about it. He was charmed with the idea, but he couldn't understand it.

Doc explained patiently, "Both players know exactly the same thing. The game is played in the mind."

"I don't get it."

"Well, look! You can't cheat in mathematics or poetry or music because they're based on truth. Untruth or cheating is just foreign, it has no place. You can't cheat in arithmetic."

Joseph and Mary shook his head. "I don't get it," he said.

It was a shocking conception and he was drawn to it because, in a way, its outrageousness seemed to him like a new strange way of cheating. In the back of his mind an idea stirred. Suppose you took honesty and made a new racket of it---it might be the toughest of all to break. It was so new to him that his mind recoiled from it, but still it wouldn't let him alone. His eyes narrowed. "Maybe he's worked out a system," he said to himself.

John Steinbeck, "Sweet Thursday"

----

Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.

All men can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.

general Sun Tze: "The Art of War"

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   Gypsy has kibitzed 10265 times to chessgames   [less...]
   Aug-07-22 44th Olympiad (2022) (replies)
 
Gypsy: Ouch: Americans are playing as if they were members of the current administration. More seriously: Great on paper, but all out of form? (Ok, So is holding his standard, more or less. But the rest!?)
 
   Jul-18-22 Keene vs Kavalek, 1981 (replies)
 
Gypsy: According to StockFish: White stepped off the path with an inconspicuous error <28.Nd2? ...>. This handed Black the reigns of the game at about -1.3 evaluation. The simple swap <28.Nxd6 cxd6> of minors would make things dead even on the account of a likely perpetual. And ...
 
   Jul-10-22 Flohr vs Nimzowitsch, 1931
 
Gypsy: I also think that <35.f4(?) ...> was way too optimistic. It probably comes from misunderstanding the position. And the same misread leads to <39.h4?...>; it turns a difficult position into losing.
 
   Jun-15-22 de Firmian vs Yudasin, 1990 (replies)
 
Gypsy: Black choices are as bad as it gets: If Black allows <25.Qf8+>, then he gets mated. And if Black allows <25.Ne7+>, then he has to give up his queen.
 
   Feb-26-22 Nepomniachtchi vs Carlsen, 2022 (replies)
 
Gypsy: How, ... human! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=414...
 
   Feb-25-22 Carlsen vs Nepomniachtchi, 2022 (replies)
 
Gypsy: Reading the names, I have a sense of deja vu.
 
   Feb-17-22 Aronian vs Nakamura, 2022 (replies)
 
Gypsy: <48.Rf4??...> This allows a mating net to close about the exposed White king. White can still forestall the mate, but only at the expense of a whole rook.
 
   Feb-17-22 Nakamura vs Aronian, 2022 (replies)
 
Gypsy: <...Aronian blew it: <59...f2??> lost the game.> In the final position, there is too many columns between Black king and white c-pawn.
 
   Feb-11-22 Nona Gaprindashvili (replies)
 
Gypsy: <HeMateMe: Weren't Bodarevsky and Tolush both brilliant tacticians, but also erratic heavy drinkers? ... > Drinking was a sort of competitive sport in USSR of those days and many a famous chess-player held an unofficial master, even grand-master rank in it. <Seems a poor fit ...
 
   Jan-29-22 Caruana vs Carlsen, 2022 (replies)
 
Gypsy: <26.f3? Rxd4!> Game is apparently even till then.
 
   Jan-26-22 Rapport vs V S Gujrathi, 2022
   Jan-23-22 A Esipenko vs Giri, 2022 (replies)
   Jan-23-22 Shankland vs Carlsen, 2022 (replies)
   Jan-16-22 Rapport vs J van Foreest, 2022 (replies)
   Jan-16-22 84th Tata Steel Masters (2022) (replies)
   Dec-10-21 Magnus Carlsen (replies)
   Dec-08-21 Nepomniachtchi vs Carlsen, 2021 (replies)
   Dec-08-21 Carlsen - Nepomniachtchi World Championship Match (2021) (replies)
   Dec-07-21 Nepomniachtchi vs Carlsen, 2021 (replies)
   Dec-06-21 Carlsen vs Nepomniachtchi, 2021 (replies)
   Oct-19-21 Vincenz Hruby
   Sep-10-21 Gypsy chessforum
   Aug-23-21 Pachman vs F Bohatirchuk, 1944
   Aug-23-21 P Kranzl vs Blatny, 1991 (replies)
   Jul-31-21 Carlsen vs Bacrot, 2021
   Jul-29-21 World Cup (2021) (replies)
   Jul-24-21 Carlsen vs Wojtaszek, 2021 (replies)
   Jul-19-21 A Tari vs Carlsen, 2021 (replies)
   Jul-19-21 Carlsen vs A Tari, 2021
   Apr-29-21 Giri vs K Alekseenko, 2021
   Apr-27-21 World Championship Candidates (2020/21) (replies)
   Apr-11-21 Spassky vs Fischer, 1972 (replies)
   Apr-09-21 K Junge vs Keres, 1942 (replies)
   Jan-31-21 Tata Steel Masters (2021) (replies)
   Dec-24-20 Capablanca vs Allies, 1913 (replies)
   Nov-03-20 Lutikov vs M Mukhitdinov, 1955 (replies)
   Nov-02-20 V Eingorn vs E Torre, 1987 (replies)
   Aug-23-20 Bronstein vs E Rojahn, 1956 (replies)
   Jun-17-20 Bogoljubov vs Duras, 1914
   May-03-20 Magnus Carlsen Invitational (2020) (replies)
   Feb-20-20 Prague Chess Festival (Masters) (2020) (replies)
   Feb-15-20 Navara vs D Anton Guijarro, 2020
   Feb-04-20 Tata Steel Masters (2020) (replies)
   Jan-26-20 So vs Carlsen, 2020 (replies)
   Jan-22-20 Caruana vs Firouzja, 2020 (replies)
   Jan-20-20 Caruana vs Anand, 2020 (replies)
   Jan-18-20 Firouzja vs Xiong, 2020 (replies)
   Jan-18-20 Goryachkina vs Ju Wenjun, 2020 (replies)
   Jan-16-20 Firouzja vs Giri, 2020 (replies)
   Jan-14-20 Ju Wenjun vs Goryachkina, 2020 (replies)
   Jan-14-20 So vs Firouzja, 2020 (replies)
   Jan-03-20 Alireza Firouzja (replies)
   Dec-10-19 K Treybal vs J Engel, 1932 (replies)
   Nov-03-19 Carlsen vs M Matlakov, 2019
   Oct-21-19 Wang Hao vs D Howell, 2019 (replies)
   Oct-21-19 Isle of Man Grand Swiss (2019) (replies)
   Oct-21-19 Nakamura vs Caruana, 2019 (replies)
   Oct-21-19 Anand vs Wang Hao, 2019 (replies)
   Oct-20-19 Caruana vs D Anton Guijarro, 2019 (replies)
   Oct-18-19 Grischuk vs Caruana, 2019 (replies)
   Oct-15-19 Carlsen vs Shirov, 2019 (replies)
   Oct-14-19 McShane vs Caruana, 2019 (replies)
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   Aug-19-19 Giri vs Aronian, 2019 (replies)
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   May-02-19 Carlsen vs Vachier-Lagrave, 2019 (replies)
   May-01-19 G Meier vs Carlsen, 2019 (replies)
   Apr-18-19 Gashimov Memorial (2019) (replies)
   Apr-15-19 Vladimir Kramnik (replies)
   Apr-03-19 Mamedyarov vs Navara, 2019 (replies)
   Mar-31-19 US Championship (2019) (replies)
   Mar-31-19 Dominguez Perez vs T Gareyev, 2019 (replies)
   Mar-30-19 Nakamura vs Dominguez Perez, 2019 (replies)
   Mar-30-19 Dominguez Perez vs A Liang, 2019
   Mar-28-19 Sevian vs Dominguez Perez, 2019 (replies)
   Mar-27-19 V Akobian vs Nakamura, 2019 (replies)
   Mar-25-19 So vs Dominguez Perez, 2019 (replies)
   Mar-24-19 Dominguez Perez vs Xiong, 2019 (replies)
   Mar-22-19 Jeffery Xiong (replies)
   Mar-22-19 V Akobian vs So, 2019 (replies)
   Jan-28-19 Tata Steel Masters (2019) (replies)
   Jan-27-19 Gibraltar Masters (2019) (replies)
   Jan-25-19 Giri vs Shankland, 2019 (replies)
   Jan-23-19 Carlsen vs Rapport, 2019 (replies)
   Jan-23-19 Carlsen vs Anand, 2019 (replies)
   Jan-22-19 Kramnik vs Ding Liren, 2019
   Dec-18-18 Tiggler chessforum (replies)
   Dec-10-18 J Fichtl vs Filip, 1953
   Dec-09-18 J Lendl vs J Fichtl, 1945 (replies)
   Dec-09-18 Jiri Fichtl (replies)
   Dec-07-18 Carlsen - Caruana World Championship Match (2018) (replies)
   Dec-02-18 Frankfurt (1887) (replies)
   Dec-01-18 M Weiss vs Burn, 1887
   Nov-29-18 Karl Gilg (replies)
   Nov-28-18 Jeremy Lim (replies)
   Nov-28-18 S Ungureanu vs D Jameson, 2011
   Nov-26-18 Caruana vs Carlsen, 2018 (replies)
   Nov-22-18 Caruana vs Carlsen, 2018 (replies)
   Nov-21-18 Carlsen vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Nov-19-18 Caruana vs Carlsen, 2018 (replies)
   Nov-18-18 Carlsen vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Nov-16-18 Carlsen vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Nov-10-18 Carlsen vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Nov-10-18 Caruana vs Carlsen, 2018 (replies)
   Nov-03-18 Flohr vs Menchik, 1936
   Oct-30-18 Prague (1908)
   Oct-30-18 J Mieses vs Duras, 1908 (replies)
   Sep-30-18 P Maghsoodloo vs Ding Liren, 2018 (replies)
   Sep-28-18 Kamil Dragun
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   Sep-26-18 So vs L'Ami, 2018 (replies)
   Sep-15-18 Sinquefield Cup (2018) (replies)
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   Jul-31-18 Biel (2018) (replies)
   Jun-18-18 Kibitzer's Café (replies)
   Jun-08-18 Norway Chess (2018) (replies)
   Jun-07-18 Caruana vs So, 2018 (replies)
   Jun-05-18 Mamedyarov vs So, 2018 (replies)
   Jun-02-18 Caruana vs Karjakin, 2018 (replies)
   Jun-02-18 Carlsen vs Anand, 2018 (replies)
   Jun-01-18 Karjakin vs Vachier-Lagrave, 2018 (replies)
   Jun-01-18 Nakamura vs Carlsen, 2018 (replies)
   May-30-18 Carlsen vs Aronian, 2018 (replies)
   May-01-18 US Championship (2018) (replies)
   May-01-18 Gelfand vs Kasparov, 1994
   Apr-28-18 Annie Wang (replies)
   Apr-10-18 GRENKE Chess Classic (2018) (replies)
   Apr-09-18 Vitiugov vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Apr-01-18 Yifan Hou vs Carlsen, 2017
   Apr-01-18 Carlsen vs Yifan Hou, 2018 (replies)
   Apr-01-18 Vitiugov vs G Meier, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-30-18 World Championship Candidates (2018) (replies)
   Mar-27-18 Grischuk vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-26-18 Caruana vs Aronian, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-24-18 Karjakin vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-23-18 Caruana vs Kramnik, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-22-18 Mamedyarov vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-20-18 Caruana vs Ding Liren, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-18-18 Kramnik vs Ding Liren, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-16-18 So vs Aronian, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-16-18 Caruana vs Grischuk, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-15-18 Aronian vs Grischuk, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-14-18 Kramnik vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Mar-10-18 Karjakin vs Mamedyarov, 2018 (replies)
   Feb-05-18 Emanuel Lasker (replies)
   Feb-03-18 Menchik vs Lasker, 1935 (replies)
   Jan-27-18 Carlsen vs M Matlakov, 2018 (replies)
   Jan-26-18 Anand vs Yifan Hou, 2018 (replies)
   Jan-26-18 Tata Steel Masters (2018) (replies)
   Jan-25-18 Navara vs T Paehtz Sr, 2018 (replies)
   Jan-25-18 Navara vs A Tate, 2018
   Jan-24-18 Carlsen vs So, 2018 (replies)
   Jan-23-18 Yifan Hou vs Caruana, 2018 (replies)
   Jan-23-18 M Matlakov vs Giri, 2018 (replies)
   Jan-17-18 Carlsen vs Kramnik, 2018 (replies)
   Jan-14-18 Caruana vs G Jones, 2018 (replies)
   Dec-11-17 Caruana vs Adams, 2017 (replies)
   Dec-09-17 Caruana vs So, 2017 (replies)
   Dec-06-17 London Chess Classic (2017) (replies)
   Dec-05-17 Nakamura vs Nepomniachtchi, 2017 (replies)
   Dec-01-17 Carlsen vs Caruana, 2017 (replies)
   Nov-10-17 Wilhelm Steinitz (replies)
   Nov-08-17 Short vs Vaganian, 1989 (replies)
   Sep-29-17 D Harika vs Kramnik, 2017 (replies)
   Sep-23-17 Aronian vs Ding Liren, 2017 (replies)
   Sep-10-17 World Cup (2017) (replies)
   Aug-31-17 Vasily Smyslov (replies)
   Aug-04-17 Anand vs Carlsen, 2017 (replies)
   Jul-23-17 Kramnik vs Bluebaum, 2017 (replies)
   Jul-23-17 Dortmund Sparkassen (2017) (replies)
   Jul-11-17 Paul Saladin Leonhardt (replies)
   Jul-11-17 Hugo Suechting (replies)
   Jul-09-17 Alex Suhobeck (replies)
   Jun-24-17 W Schmidt vs M Bronowicki, 1998
   Jun-17-17 Norway Chess (2017) (replies)
   Jun-14-17 Karjakin vs Aronian, 2017 (replies)
   Jun-13-17 Prince Dadian vs Doubrava, 1896 (replies)
   Jun-12-17 Nakamura vs Karjakin, 2017 (replies)
   Jun-07-17 Nakamura vs Aronian, 2017 (replies)
   May-29-17 Aron Nimzowitsch (replies)
   May-27-17 Karpov vs Hort, 1980 (replies)
   May-22-17 FIDE Grand Prix Moscow (2017) (replies)
   Apr-30-17 Gashimov Memorial (2017) (replies)
   Apr-27-17 Kramnik vs Mamedyarov, 2017 (replies)
   Apr-21-17 Aronian vs Yifan Hou, 2017 (replies)
   Apr-13-17 O Bernstein vs Bronstein, 1954
   Apr-13-17 Bronstein vs O Bernstein, 1954
   Apr-10-17 US Championship (2017) (replies)
   Apr-09-17 Kamsky vs Onischuk, 2017 (replies)
   Apr-09-17 Vasyl Ivanchuk (replies)
   Apr-08-17 So vs Kamsky, 2017 (replies)
   Apr-07-17 V Akobian vs Caruana, 2017 (replies)
   Mar-31-17 So vs Caruana, 2017 (replies)
   Mar-17-17 Women's World Championship Knockout Tournament (2017) (replies)
   Mar-01-17 J Reinisch vs Traxler, 1890 (replies)
   Feb-26-17 Yifan Hou (replies)
   Feb-25-17 FIDE Grand Prix Sharjah (2017) (replies)
   Feb-07-17 Yifan Hou vs B Lalith, 2017 (replies)
   Feb-03-17 Gibraltar Masters (2017) (replies)
   Jan-27-17 Nepomniachtchi vs Eljanov, 2017 (replies)
   Jan-26-17 Tata Steel Masters (2017) (replies)
   Jan-24-17 Bronstein vs Simagin, 1967 (replies)
   Jan-17-17 Marshall vs Nimzowitsch, 1930 (replies)
   Dec-22-16 Mikhail Botvinnik (replies)
   Dec-21-16 London Chess Classic (2016) (replies)
   Dec-06-16 Carlsen - Karjakin World Championship Match (2016) (replies)
   Nov-24-16 Carlsen vs Karjakin, 2016 (replies)
   Nov-21-16 Carlsen vs Karjakin, 2016 (replies)
   Nov-18-16 Karjakin vs Carlsen, 2016 (replies)
   Nov-17-16 Carlsen vs Karjakin, 2016 (replies)
   Nov-15-16 Karjakin vs Carlsen, 2016 (replies)
   Nov-14-16 Carlsen vs Karjakin, 2016 (replies)
   Oct-06-16 Gelfand vs Nepomniachtchi, 2016 (replies)
   Oct-05-16 Nepomniachtchi vs Anand, 2016 (replies)
   Oct-02-16 Svidler vs Li Chao, 2016 (replies)
   Sep-30-16 Tal Memorial (2016) (replies)
   Sep-30-16 Capablanca vs Alekhine, 1927 (replies)
   Sep-30-16 Jose Raul Capablanca (replies)
   Sep-26-16 Giri vs Anand, 2016 (replies)
   Sep-12-16 Jobava vs Caruana, 2016 (replies)
   Sep-11-16 Karjakin vs Navara, 2016
   Sep-11-16 Baku Olympiad (2016) (replies)
   Sep-11-16 Caruana vs Carlsen, 2016 (replies)
   Sep-10-16 Robson vs Grischuk, 2016 (replies)
   Aug-28-16 Morphy vs A Meek, 1857 (replies)
   Jul-26-16 W Von Holzhausen vs Tarrasch, 1912 (replies)
   Jul-26-16 Fischer vs Reshevsky, 1958 (replies)
   Jul-21-16 So vs Giri, 2016 (replies)
   Jul-21-16 Wei Yi vs Nakamura, 2016 (replies)
   Jul-21-16 Boleslavsky vs Flohr, 1950
   Jul-17-16 Dortmund Sparkassen (2016) (replies)
   Jul-06-16 Duras vs Nenarokov, 1909
   Jun-04-16 Gashimov Memorial (2016) (replies)
   May-26-16 London (1899) (replies)
   May-09-16 Z Rutka vs J Vesely, 1949 (replies)
   Apr-29-16 Topalov vs Kramnik, 2016 (replies)
   Apr-29-16 Carlsen vs Eljanov, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-28-16 Karjakin vs Caruana, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-27-16 Caruana vs Svidler, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-26-16 World Championship Candidates (2016) (replies)
   Mar-24-16 Anand vs Karjakin, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-23-16 Aronian vs Topalov, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-22-16 Anand vs Aronian, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-16-16 Topalov vs Karjakin, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-15-16 Karjakin vs Anand, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-15-16 Yifan Hou vs M Muzychuk, 2016
   Mar-14-16 Yifan Hou vs M Muzychuk, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-13-16 Bobotsov vs Tal, 1958 (replies)
   Mar-13-16 Muzychuk - Hou Women's World Championship Match (2016) (replies)
   Mar-13-16 Topalov vs Aronian, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-11-16 Anand vs Topalov, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-09-16 M Muzychuk vs Yifan Hou, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-08-16 Yifan Hou vs M Muzychuk, 2016 (replies)
   Mar-04-16 Ladislav Alster
   Mar-02-16 M Muzychuk vs Yifan Hou, 2016 (replies)
   Feb-19-16 Levenfish vs Botvinnik, 1937 (replies)
   Feb-14-16 Tata Steel Masters (2016) (replies)
   Feb-08-16 Boris Spassky (replies)
   Jan-30-16 Carlsen vs Yifan Hou, 2016 (replies)
   Jan-28-16 Karjakin vs Adams, 2016 (replies)
   Jan-26-16 Carlsen vs Adams, 2016 (replies)
   Jan-21-16 Caruana vs Yifan Hou, 2016 (replies)
   Jan-14-16 W Fairhurst vs Keres, 1955
   Dec-21-15 London Chess Classic (2015) (replies)
   Dec-18-15 M Karthikeyan vs Eljanov, 2014
   Dec-15-15 Carlsen vs Grischuk, 2015 (replies)
   Dec-10-15 Boleslavsky vs Lisitsin, 1956 (replies)
   Dec-09-15 Anand vs Topalov, 2015 (replies)
   Dec-08-15 Aronian vs Carlsen, 2015 (replies)
   Dec-07-15 Nakamura vs Anand, 2015 (replies)
   Dec-07-15 Carlsen vs Adams, 2015 (replies)
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Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 14 OF 14 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Feb-04-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  MissScarlett: <<chessgames.com> Two moves are recorded incorectly: It should be 54...Ra7 and 62...Ra6. Can you please fix it?>

Alekhine vs Duras, 1910 (kibitz #1)

It's a long time ago, but can you recall what source you had for the game?

As <mifralu> points out, Skinner & Verhoeven, based on the tournament book, have <54. ... Ra8> and <62. ...Ra7>.

Feb-05-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: <MissScarlett> I do remember the source, it was a Czech monograph about Duras written by a team of IM's led by Josef Louma. Of the top of my head, I remember also that the team included Emil Richter. (Given that this was mainly an end-game struggle, E. Richer was likely the one who analyzed the contest.)

I also have a later Duras monograph written by Jan Kalendovsky, but I acquired that one later.

I would love to verify the moves I gave -- I do goof up more often than I care for -- but I am still socially distant, away from my city house and away from my book cases.

Feb-05-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: <Everett> Among the curves the Sweedish Covid 19 Wikipedia page

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID...

displays towards the bottom is one that breaks down the all-cause-death-rate by the three largest counties: Stockholm, Skane, and Vastra Gotaland.

The comparison between Stockholm and Skane is quite instructive. In particular, note that the second season of COVID in Stockholm is already much tamer than was the first COVID season there. In contrast, it looks like Skane lucked out during the first COVID season. But Skane is being hit hard now, in the second COVID season.

I believe that what we see in these curves is the effect of COVID attacking an unprepared population cluster for the first time.

Feb-05-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  MissScarlett: <The first move 54...Ra7 was a part of a key trap that Duras set for Alekhine.>

Did you mean by this that ...Ra7 was crucial to Alekhine's plan? If so, I don't see the significant difference between it and ...Ra8.

Feb-05-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: <MissScarlett>

The trap got completed when Duras played <61...Kd7>. Now, AAA can play his <62.d5?!>, because after <62...exd5? 63.Bxf5+ gxf5? 64.Rg7+ ...>, the rook on a7 is lost on the account of the x-ray.

(Had the rook been on a8, there would not been the temptation for AAA to play the 62.d5... because 62...exd5 is no longer a tactical error)

Feb-09-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Everett: <I believe that what we see in these curves is the effect of COVID attacking an unprepared population cluster for the first time.>

I agree

Feb-27-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: The all-cause-deaths graph for Sweden has been brought up-to-date. (That presently means week 5, as the system seems to need about three weeks for reporting and processing) The numbers look very promising and the Swedish death rate is now significantly below the null-hypothesis mean for the season.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...

The speed of the Swedish recovery outpaced even my personal dead-reckoning. (Trying to be slightly on the conservative side of things, I was thinking that mid-March would see us to this milestone)

Feb-28-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Could you translate the last graph's headers?
Mar-02-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: Antal Dodsfall ~= the number of death-cases

Ar och vecka ~= Year & week

Aug-14-21  Tiggler: Hello, Gypsy, are you still there? If so, I'd like to talk to you about Hardy-Weinburg equilibrium (ask your wife), and its relevance to vaccination choices.

Best regards.

Aug-23-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: <Tiggler> How can I help?
Aug-25-21  Tiggler: It concerns a bit of ethnobiology that was in vogue in the 1980s. The argument was that altruistic behavior could be explained if the opposite, antisocial or selfish behavior, was penalized by others. If those who persist in selfish behavior, however, are at a low enough frequency they can enjoy most of the benefit of a socially cooperative society without much cost. Such individuals were termed 'cheaters'.

The analogy to vaccination rates is obvious. It is not really Hardy-Weinberg, because that concerns genetic effects of rare heterozygotes. The analogy arises because the cost/reward depends on the population frequency, and hence an equilibrium can arise.

Thoughts?

Aug-25-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: Let me recap in different words. That way you can check my understanding:

We have two 'extreme' but opposite behaviors: extreme sacrifice and selfish cheating.

We also have two explanatory mechanisms: biological fitness function and game-theoretical payoff function.

------------------

An example of a voluntary extreme sacrifice principle can be a mother [insert your species here] that tries to fight off a predator to save her young ones.

Another example of extreme sacrifice, this time involuntary, could be the infamous cytokine storm, where the immune-system of an organism sacrifices the individual to protect the herd.

For a paradigmatic example of cheater behavior, we can take the troubling state of measles vaccination on Vashon Island (suburb of Seattle, WA). -- Too large a number of measles vax-refusers on Vashon has created a herd-immunity issues for local schools. https://www.q13fox.com/news/vashon-...

[All examples from biology. I presume You are interested in those]

Aug-25-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: <Hardy-Weinberg Principle>, from the standpoint of stochastic processes, says that the random-mating mechanism (uniform random mating, really) is idempotent and that it produces an equilibrium distribution of gene-pairings in one generation.

(Its worth realizing though that the distribution of gene pairs is a subject of random-walk drifts and that this does not contradict the Hardy Principle. The drift can either be systematic due to changes in survival rates or be purely random)

What Hardy-Weinberg Principle really explains is the math behind the original Gregor Mendel experimental result. Intuitively, one would expect additional changes, from first generation to second generation, from second to third, and so on. Yet, the distribution stays stable (modulo the drift issues)

Aug-26-21  Tiggler: In your last message (to take that one first) you fail to mention selection: the bias for or against survival of one type over another.

The original work was specifically for diploid sexually breeding populations. Diploid means that each individual gets two copies of the gene at every locus. The resulting phenotype depends, when the two copies are different, on which of the two is dominant. H-D arises at a gene locus if heterozygotes are selectively favored over either of two homozygous types. This prevents the less fit gene from being driven from the population (over many generations). The effect is dependent on prevalence: a rare gene is seldom found in homozygous individuals, so even if it is fatal in homozygotes it can remain in the population if the hetrozygotes are advantaged over homozygotes of the "good" gene. The equilibrium frequency (prevalence in population) depends on the fitnesses of the three diploid types.

Aug-26-21  Tiggler: An example is sickle cell anemia: the homozygotes are severely disadvantaged but the heterozygotes have a slightly favored response to malaria. Thus in populations where malaria is endemic, the rare genotype survives at low frequency.
Aug-26-21  Tiggler: On Vashion Island there are two issues that prevent selection from solving the problem: 1. the population is not isolated in mating patterns, and 2. good medical care prevents cheaters from suffering the full cost of their vax-refusal.
Aug-28-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: In my view, the Vashon Island case is really a problem of game theory, not of natural selection. People are minimizing the threat to themselves, or to their children. Under a rational-decision hypothesis, one would probably formulate the problem as each choosing the strategy that minimizes the probability that they will come down with the disease. (In reality, people minimize their fear. They chose intuitively, without tabulating the probabilities. Modeling subjective freakouts is too nebulous/dicey, however, so lets use probability as auxiliary objective.)

If everyone in the community is vaxed, the herd is safe and the only risk to an individual comes from that individual's potentially bad reaction to the vaccine itself. This probability is positive, not zero. Thus the everyone-vaccinated-state is not really a Nash point: Locally, people can further reduce their risk by refusing the vaccination, as long as the herd remains immune.

Prisoner's Dilemma arises: If too many people act 'smart' and refuse the shot, the whole herd loses its immunity and the disease resurfaces. That motivates the people to return to vaccinating.

When using probabilities as proxy, one can expect an equilibrium of sorts to form, where the expected harm from vaccine malfunction sort of equals to the expected harm from a wild, unprotected encounter with the disease. Knowing how irrationally people freak out about things, however, even this equilibrium is unlikely to be achieved in real life over protracted time.

Aug-29-21  Tiggler: Your preference for a game theory formulation is a valid choice, but I would argue that, so far as equilibria are concerned, it makes no difference to the outcome. In one case all individuals are rational (!) and make a random choice with a fixed probability, whereas in the other the individuals are predisposed to make different choices and the frequency of different types in the population determines the probability of each choice.

Of course the attainment of equilibrium will not occur in practice in either case, but it is interesting to know the direction towards which the selective pressure (again a biological metaphor) operates.

Sep-04-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: Key facts about competitive Fixed-Points in Game Theory: (1) Existence of a fixed-point is often proved by indirect means, usually via the Brouwer's Fixed-Point theorem. (2) The natural process of all players repeatedly optimizing their individual utility function may not ever find a fixed-point; examples of circulations in games have been constructed. (3) Many cases of competitive fixed-points produce globally sub-optimal results. The most infamous of these is found in the Prisoner's Dilemma paradox. (4) Computational methods to find equilibrium are usually based on piecewise-linear homotopy methods, a generalization of Lemke's Algorithm for solving general quadratic optimization problems. (From a given start, PL-homotopy algorithm also may but may not find an equilibrium along its path.) (5) An extraordinarily useful notion is that of Nash Equlibrium, namely of a point where no player can improve their own utility function by acting alone. (6) This leads to the notion of cooperative games. (Most of the fundamental theoretical work there was done by Lloyd Shapley, often in a partnership with Martin Shubik)
Sep-09-21  Tiggler: I don't think any of those theories deals with domestic terrorism. That is a component of the problem in the US, perhaps less so in the EU.
Sep-09-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: From the philosophical standpoint, Game Theory is successful where the game's players are essentially automatons. They have little or none of "free will" and their behavior or playing strategy is dictated by their utility function, payoffs, forces of optimal solutions, and so on. In a sense, the Game Theory framework here is a modeling artifice and, no matter how useful, Lloyd Shapley called these "Nonessential Games". Real life is much more complicated than that. (I sincerely hope!)
Sep-10-21  Tiggler: <(I sincerely hope!)> Well, be careful what you wish for!
Sep-10-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: <Tiggler: ... Well, be careful what you wish for!> I understand your concern, I think. However, having spent 1/3 of my life on the receiving end of a totalitarian regime's 'wisely dished out bliss', I put my trust in the complexity of each person's individual decision making. It is a sort of religion with me.
Sep-10-21
Premium Chessgames Member
  Gypsy: It is interesting to speculate where on the scale of non-essential games is chess. It seems too me that the more forced are the variations the more 'non-essential' we are, as players. That is, as long as we do find the non-blunder moves. That is kind of essential, but in a different sense of the term.
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