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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25
♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>

Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12

Format example to post your predictions

1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca

Good Luck!


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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


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<HALL <OF> FAME>

WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖

~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~

♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

~~~~

♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

*may be incomplete

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


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♙♙

>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7712 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!
 
   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.
 
   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn
 
   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024) (replies)
 
lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov
 
   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖
 
   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 10 OF 285 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Feb-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Ok here the prediction results after 7 rounds (halfway) with calculational help of YouRang's software (slightly adjusted)! The group is close 2gether and a lot can change still. It's clear that the biggest difference with the actual standings is with Topalov. Maximum score 64.

Rank,Score,UserID
1,51,djmercury
2,50,Swapmeet
3,49,LancelotduLac
3,49,Troewa
3,49,viapori
6,48,Annie K.
7,47,chessmaster pro
7,47,hitman84
7,47,Jafar219
7,47,suenteus po 147
11,146,nintenchess
12,45,AdrianP
12,45,Appaz
12,45,Betsson
12,45,Bobak Zahmat
12,45,cu8sfan
12,45,diction
12,45,Elo
12,45,EmperorAtahualpa
12,45,Joshka
12,45,kolobok
12,45,larrewl
12,45,morphyisfratello
12,45,mulondabl
12,45,percyblakeney
12,45,petrovalovski
12,45,plimko
12,45,radu stancu
12,45,Tassadar
12,45,TIMER
12,45,WannaBe
12,45,Where is my mind
12,45,Xaurus
12,45,YouRang
35,44,firebyrd
35,44,lostemperor
35,44,madserg
35,44,TechN9ne
39,43,Assassinater
39t,43,cromat
39,43,pe3ucTop
39,43,peabody88
43,42,VishyFan
44,41,dimradil
44,41,iron maiden
44,41,kevinatcausa
44,41,mikejaqua
44,41,Montreal1666
44,41,zarra
50,39,Dim Weasel
50,39,Ezzy
50,39,Robin01
Now up for an exciting Linares also!

Feb-28-06  YouRang: I'm see that I'm ranked way up there, tied for rank #12, while <lostemperor> is way down there, tied for rank #35! ;-)
Feb-28-06  YouRang: <lostemperor> I see you've figured out how to add some pseudo-contestants, such as <Bettson> and <Elo>! :)
Feb-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Yeah, <YouRang> I'm a fast learner on your software hehehe and I have always included Elo and Betsson in my predictioncontest and they were the same this time.

I also put the average kibitzer's predictions (from the average ranking report) and although that is really different than Elo the score is the same!

compare (player, points achieved):

Standing according to ELO:
1. Topalov 2
2. Svidler 7
3. Aronian 7
4. Leko 5
5. Ivanchuk 7
6. Bacrot 6
7. Radjabov 5
8. Vallejo 6

score 45

Average Kibitzer Prediction:
1. Topalov 2
2. Svidler 7
3. Ivanchuk 7
4. Leko 5
5. Aronian 5
6. Radjabov 6
7. Bacrot 7
8. Vallejo 6

score 45

I put the points, achieved, I have always used behind it.

Feb-28-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <I'm see that I'm ranked way up there, tied for rank #12, while <lostemperor> is way down there, tied for rank #35! ;-)>

You got me there I admit! (But it ain't over yet:))

Mar-02-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Has halfway standings changed dramatically at the finish before? It has. At Sofia MTel tournament 2005. Adams and Kramnik were leading halfway the tournament while Topalov was last. At the end it was the other way around MTel Masters (2005). <Robin01> had the best (almost perfect) prediction hafway the tournament then. Although I don't think a dramatic change will happen in Linares it is not impossible:).
Mar-06-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I don't think I've said too much. Topalov marches on in Linares (once again).
Mar-09-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Ok with two more rounds to go these are the standings of the final standings predictioncontest with the help of <YouRang>'s software. It's getting nearer towards the end, but not there yet.

Rank,Score,UserID
1,54,LancelotduLac
2,52,djmercury
3t,50,AdrianP
3t,50,Betsson
3t,50,chessmaster pro
3t,50,diction
3t,50,dimradil
3t,50,Elo
3t,50,larrewl
10,49,Swapmeet
11t,48,Appaz
11t,48,hitman84
11t,48,Joshka
11t,48,percyblakeney
11t,48,petrovalovski
11t,48,TIMER
11t,48,WannaBe
11t,48,Where is my mind
11t,48,Xaurus
11t,48,YouRang
21t,47,firebyrd
21t,47,lostemperor
21t,47,madserg
21t,47,nintenchess
25t,46,Assassinater
25t,46,Average kibitzer
25t,46,Bobak Zahmat
25t,46,EmperorAtahualpa
25t,46,Jafar219
25t,46,kevinatcausa
25t,46,morphyisfratello
25t,46,mulondabl
25t,46,Tassadar
25t,46,Troewa
36,45,TechN9ne
37t,44,iron maiden
37t,44,mikejaqua
37t,44,pe3ucTop
37t,44,plimko
37t,44,Robin01
37t,44,suenteus po 147
37t,44,viapori
37t,44,zarra
44,43,Annie K.
45t,42,cu8sfan
45t,42,Dim Weasel
45t,42,Montreal1666
48,41,VishyFan
49t,40,Ezzy
49t,40,kolobok
49t,40,peabody88
49t,40,radu stancu
If you think there are mistakes in it please let me know.

Mar-09-06  YouRang: Now, all I need is for Leko to crash and burn, Ivanchuck to catch fire, Aronian to flop, Topalov to keep winning, and THEN I'LL BE CHAMPION!

Bwa-bua-BWA HA HA HA!

Mar-10-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <YouRang> I'm getting the creeps if you laugh like that!
Mar-11-06  bobbyboomer: <lostemperor> I can't find my score anywhere on your lists. Think I've been missed. My predictions are on page seven. I did pretty bad, maybe I shouldn't be listed!!
Mar-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <bobbyboomer> I will look into it. Sometimes the software for some reason does not take a prediction. Thanks for telling!
Mar-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Ok guys here it is. The results of the final standings predictioncontest of Linares 2006. It was a weird and surprising tournament. Still only an 8 points difference between #2 and # 49:).

After a final sprint of Aronian in the last round <djmercury> managed to take first place again. Congretulations!

Rank,Score,UserID<
1,54,djmercury
2t,52,Appaz
2t,52,Betsson
2t,52,diction
2t,52,dimradil
2t,52,Elo
2t,52,LancelotduLac
8t,51,nintenchess
8t,51,Swapmeet
10t,50,Bobak Zahmat
10t,50,bobbyboomer
10t,50,chessmaster pro
10t,50,EmperorAtahualpa
10t,50,Tassadar
10t,50,TIMER
10t,50,Xaurus
17t,49,firebyrd
17t,49,lostemperor
17t,49,madserg
20t,48,Assassinater
20t,48,larrewl
20t,48,percyblakeney
20t,48,petrovalovski
20t,48,plimko
20t,48,Troewa
20t,48,YouRang
27t,47,Annie K.
27t,47,VishyFan
29t,46,AdrianP
29t,46,cu8sfan
29t,46,iron maiden
29t,46,Jafar219
29t,46,Joshka
29t,46,mikejaqua
29t,46,pe3ucTop
29t,46,Robin01
29t,46,suenteus po 147
29t,46,WannaBe
29t,46,Where is my mind
29t,46,zarra
41,45,TechN9ne
42t,44,Dim Weasel
42t,44,hitman84
42t,44,kevinatcausa
42t,44,kolobok
42t,44,Montreal1666
42t,44,peabody88
42t,44,radu stancu
42t,44,viapori
50,42,Ezzy>

<Ezzy>, our glorious (sole) winner of the Corus predictions (on tie-break), I'm proud of you nevertheless! Is this perhaps the Kramnik, World Champion, effect:)?

<bobbyboomer> I thought perhaps I made a mistake and wrongly put in the data of your predictions. But that was not the case! After some try outs your name appears on the list. I don't know what happened before? The data was correctly put in.

<YouRang> thanks for your software help again:)

If there are any mistakes or questions please let me know. The points for the standings after two tournaments will follow.

Mar-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Linares 2006
These are the <actual standings>:

1 Levon Aronian 8.5
2/3 Veselin Topalov 8
2/3 Teimour Radjabov 8
4. Peter Leko 7.5
5. Vassily Ivanchuk 6.5
6. Peter Svidler 6.5
7. Etienne Bacrot 6
8. Francisco Vallejo 5

<djmercury> predictions. Maximum total points 64. Maximum points per each correct prediction 8. Each difference in standing is one point deduction (between brackets points given).

1. Topalov (7)
2. Aronian (7)
3. Leko (7)
4. Ivanchuk (7)
5. Svidler (8)
6. Radjabov (4)
7. Vallejo (7)
8. Bacrot (7)

Mar-12-06  bobbyboomer: <lostemperor> Thanks!! Maybe the computer was having a bad day. I'm surprised I did so well as this turned out to be a tough tournament to predict. Made for an exciting tournament to watch. I would like to thank you and all others involved in running these prediction contests and posting all the stats and such. You do an excellant job and it is very much appreciated.
Mar-12-06  viapori: Concerning the final results of this predictioncontest: Maybe I'm not on the top, but I'm definitely there where I belong! And thank you <lostemperor> for doing this.
Mar-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <Bobbyboomer> Just maybe the computer can have bad days too :). I did make some small changes of the input of your predictions untill the machine read them. But it should have worked without having to edit anything since it was correctly written and worked for other predictions aswell. I only edit predictions in case of spelling's mistakes of names, invalid numbers of standings etc.
Mar-12-06  Ezzy: <lostemperor - <Ezzy>, our glorious (sole) winner of the Corus predictions (on tie-break), I'm proud of you nevertheless! Is this perhaps the Kramnik, World Champion, effect:)?> Are you sure <lostemperor> that you haven't posted the final results upside down by mistake?

When I won Corus, I celebrated for 3 days. After all that celebrating, I collapsed drunk in a cold puddle outside the pub and developed arthritis. This is not an excuse for my dismal, sorry, pathetic performance at Linares, but it does affect your performance. Honestly! :-)

I will now retreat to the mountains of Tibet to consider my future in the predictions game, but in the meantime I will do a thorough check to make sure my other 49 opponents were not cheating! I will then have a word with the Dalai Llama and if he helps me meditate my arthritis away, I may just return for the M-Tel masters.

Thanks <lostemperor> once again, GREAT WORK!!

I'm bloody devastated. I must remember that you are only as good as your last prediction contest. What a disaster! It can't be true, first to last in the blink of an eye.

I will have to show a bit of Topalovian courage and come back with a vengeance in the next tournament. This could set me back 20 years in my predicting career.

Please <lostemperor> check that you didn't have the results sheet upside down when you formulated the final table.

Mar-12-06  Ezzy: Many congratulations <djmercury> on a fantastic win in the prediction contest.

Yours sincerely

Ezzy (A fallen star)

Mar-13-06  djmercury: Many thanks for the congratulations, really unexpected win because I thought I put out a more or less evident final standings with the only exception of Aronian in the second position, after a not brilliant Corus tournament and he was even able to win Linares, great achievement! Anyway, thanks again to Lostemperor for organizing this prediction contest and good luck to everybody in the next one, I suppose it's going to be the MTel.
Mar-14-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <Ezzy> sorry it wasn't upside down. I double checked :). It can happen to the best of us. I hope you'll soon recover from your arthritis and can't think of a better way than meditation with the Dalai Llama! (;
Mar-14-06  cromat: <lostemperor> I can't find my score anywhere on your lists. Think I've been missed. I did pretty bad, maybe I shouldn't be listed ?
Mar-14-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <cromat> yes I was just about to mention that to you(!) You were too late in submitting your predictions. The deadline was January 18 before the first round started. Although I'm convinced you made your predictions without looking at the first round, it cannot be counted, sorry. The same went for <Chopin> in Corus. You wouldn't have done badly though with 48 points.
Mar-14-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: These are the points for the annual standings. Points are given to the top 50%. Starting from one point with a maximum of 8. It will be divided proportionaly if possible.

<Linares 2006>

8 points: <djmercury>

6 points: <Appaz ,diction ,dimradil ,LancelotduLac, Betsson, Elo>

5 points: <nintenchess ,Swapmeet>

4 points: <Bobak Zahmat, bobbyboomer, chessmaster pro, EmperorAtahualpa, Tassadar, TIMER, Xaurus>

3 points: <firebyrd, lostemperor, madserg>

2 points: <Assassinater, larrewl, percyblakeney, petrovalovski, plimko, Troewa, YouRang>

1 point: <Annie K. ,VishyFan>

Standings after two tournaments will follow.

Mar-14-06  Montreal1666: <lostemperor:><Linares 2006 These are the <actual standings>: 1 Levon Aronian 8.5
2/3 Veselin Topalov 8
2/3 Teimour Radjabov 8
4. Peter Leko 7.5
5. Vassily Ivanchuk 6.5
6. Peter Svidler 6.5
7. Etienne Bacrot 6
8. Francisco Vallejo 5

<djmercury> predictions. Maximum total points 64. Maximum points per each correct prediction 8. Each difference in standing is one point deduction (between brackets points given).

1. Topalov (7)
2. Aronian (7)
3. Leko (7)
4. Ivanchuk (7)
5. Svidler (8)
6. Radjabov (4)
7. Vallejo (7)
8. Bacrot (7)>

Svidler has finished 6th, therefore <djmercury> should get 7 points for it and not 8.

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