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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25
♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>

Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12

Format example to post your predictions

1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca

Good Luck!


♙♙

♙♙♙

♙♙


Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


♙♙

♙♙♙

♙♙


<HALL <OF> FAME>

WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖

~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~

♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

~~~~

♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

*may be incomplete

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


♙♙

♙♙♙

♙♙

>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7712 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!
 
   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.
 
   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn
 
   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024) (replies)
 
lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov
 
   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖
 
   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 188 OF 285 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jan-16-16  Golden Executive: <lostemperor: NB: Mind <rogge>, <YouRang> and <moronovich> for delivering an invalid prediction format (though (almost) readable). In case of <moronovich> it was hard to spot the error! Do you see it?>

T<h>omashevsky.

Jan-16-16  YouRang: <lostemperor> Oops sorry. If you can add <14.Eljanov> to mine, that would be okay, but I understand if it's too late.
Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <YouRang> I figured Eljanov must be #14 in your predictions and so put it into the CONMAN. Anyway it seems unable to take out contestants already in, even if I wanted it to (which I dont:)
Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <TATASTEEL CHESS 2016 THE PREDICTIONS!

<ROUND 1

<Hou - Karjakin 1/2
So - Giri 1-0
Ding - Adams 1-0
Navara - Carlsen 1/2
Caruana - Eljanov 1-0
Wei - Tomashevsky 1/2
Mamedyarov - Van Wely 1/2

<Standings:
1. So
1. Caruana
1. Ding
4. Mamedyarov
4. Tomashevsky
4. Hou
4. Karjakin
4. Carlsen
4. Wei
4. VanWely
4. Navara
12. Adams
12. Giri
12. Eljanov>
>
>
>

Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ABSOLUTE RANKER 1

Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 98

Score,UserID

55,Robin01
53,YouRang
50,chessmoron
~~~~
47,Aurora
46,Keyser Soze
46,OhioChessFan
43,rogge
42,Golden Executive
41,whiteshark
38,moronovich
38,SwitchingQuylthulg
37,WinKing
37,wordfunph
36,scout118
33,cromat
33,WannaBe
31,Karposian
31,lostemperor
30,alfamikewhiskey
30,Fiona Macleod
25,Paragua
23,Penguincw

Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER 1

Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 910

Score,UserID

716,Robin01
699,YouRang
643,chessmoron
~~~~
622,Keyser Soze
615,Aurora
606,OhioChessFan
588,Golden Executive
587,rogge
575,whiteshark
559,moronovich
556,SwitchingQuylthulg
549,WinKing
530,scout118
512,cromat
512,lostemperor
508,WannaBe
482,Karposian
473,Penguincw
472,Fiona Macleod
468,wordfunph
424,Paragua
418,alfamikewhiskey

Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: PAIR BETTING RANKER 1

Earnings,UserID

$99.35,Penguincw
$61.82,Robin01
$23.45,YouRang
~~~~
$21.57,Fiona Macleod
$16.76,chessmoron
$13.63,moronovich
$5.78,Golden Executive
$4.03,WannaBe
$2.25,WinKing
$-3.57,Keyser Soze
$-7.32,OhioChessFan
$-7.90,scout118
$-8.48,SwitchingQuylthulg
$-8.89,rogge
$-11.24,wordfunph
$-11.64,Aurora
$-22.98,whiteshark
$-24.32,Karposian
$-32.16,lostemperor
$-33.66,cromat
$-35.05,alfamikewhiskey
$-41.41,Paragua

Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners

$22.00,Adams-equal-Eljanov, Fiona Macleod

$22.00,Adams-equal-Giri, Penguincw

$22.00,Caruana-above-Carlsen, wordfunph

$22.00,Ding-equal-So, Penguincw

$22.00,Eljanov-equal-Giri, moronovich

$22.00,Hou-above-Adams, Robin01

$22.00,Hou-equal-Tomashevsky, Penguincw

$22.00,Karjakin-equal-Mamedyarov, Golden Executive

$22.00,Karjakin-equal-Wei, Robin01

$22.00,Mamedyarov-above-Giri, Penguincw

$22.00,Mamedyarov-equal-Navara, Fiona Macleod

$22.00,Navara-equal-VanWely, Penguincw

$22.00,So-above-Carlsen, scout118

$22.00,Tomashevsky-equal-VanWely, WannaBe

Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: As an exception I have a comment after only one round: <Robin01> who also had a machine unreadable prediction format, though legal since it was not mentioned otherwise, drew first blood. <Penguincw> last in the absolute ranker, leading in the Pair bettings! <;)
Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <Golden Executive: <lostemperor: NB: Mind <rogge>, <YouRang> and <moronovich> for delivering an invalid prediction format (though (almost) readable). In case of <moronovich> it was hard to spot the error! Do you see it?>

T<h>omashevsky> Indeed, it took me 10 minutes to find that one!

Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: < <Penguincw> last in the absolute ranker, leading in the Pair bettings! <;) >

Yeah, that thing happened at <YouRang>'s contest last year as well for me. Seems to me it's starting to emerge as more of a trend than say, a fluke or strategy.

I'll have to see.

Jan-16-16  Karposian: I think that <Penguincw>'s result in the Absolute Ranker so far describes fairly accurately his skill level.

His result so far in the Pair Betting Ranker: DUMB LUCK.

Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: < Karposian: I think that <Penguincw>'s result in the Absolute Ranker so far describes fairly accurately his skill level. >

Which ranker most accurately describes your skill? Absolute, Square or Betting?

< His result so far in the Pair Betting Ranker: DUMB LUCK. >

I actually agree with this statement, but I've got first place 4 times before in Betting Ranker in this contest, an honour not many users have accomplished.

Seriously, when are <you> going to start filling up your trophy case in this contest? Even in my weakest contest, I won 3 golds in it.

Jan-16-16  Karposian: <Penguincw: Seriously, when are <you> going to start filling up your trophy case in this contest? Even in my weakest contest, I won 3 golds in it.>

What you fail to mention is that I actually won medals in all three rankers in the LCC contest. Unfortunately for me, they didn't count in the statistics. This time it hasn't started so well, but hey, it's only one round! Eljanov losing was a big blow, however. I'm banking on him to do well, and display the high level of play he showed us at the last World Cup, where he had an excellent tournament.

Jan-16-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: < Karposian: ...

What you fail to mention is that I actually won medals in all three rankers in the LCC contest. >

What you failed to mention is 1) They were all bronze and 2) It was only for fun. When it's only for fun, people don't actually play at their full strength, which is why you were able to land on the podium.

< Unfortunately for me, they didn't count in the statistics. >

Even if it did count in the stats, it would just be one mere bronze. Good job, young blood.

(if you choose to reply to this comment, please do so on your forum; I think it's enough here)

Jan-16-16  Karposian: <Penguincw> I have replied to your gratuitous insults in my own forum, thank you very much.
Jan-17-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I hope your discussions are not too serious guys:)
Jan-17-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: All draws today!!
Jan-17-16  Karposian: <lostemperor: I hope your discussions are not too serious guys:)>

It's not at all serious, <lostemperor>. <Penguincw> and me are good <CG>-friends, actually.

Jan-17-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: < Karposian: <lostemperor: I hope your discussions are not too serious guys:)>

It's not at all serious, <lostemperor>. <Penguincw> and me are good <CG>-friends, actually. >

Yeah, let's go with that. It can get pretty vitriolic, but it's not really a flame war or anything.

Jan-19-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Due to internet connection problems I may not be able to post a third round update.
Jan-19-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS 2016 ROUND 4 UPDATE

<Round 3 - Monday the 18th

So - Karjakin 1/2
Ding - Hou 1/2
Navara - Giri 1/2
Caruana - Adams 1-0
Wei - Carlsen 1/2
Mamedyarov - Eljanov 0-1
Van Wely - Tomashevsky 1/2

*****

<Round 4 - Tuesday the 19th

Karjakin - Tomashevsky 1-0
Eljanov - Van Wely 1-0
Carlsen - Mamedyarov 1/2
Adams - Wei 1/2
Giri - Caruana 1/2
Hou - Navara 1-0
So - Ding 1/2

<standings:
1. Caruana 3
2. So 2.5
2. Hou
2. Karjakin
2. Ding
2. Eljanov
7. Carlsen 2
7. Wei Yi
9. Tomashevsky 1.5
9. VanWely
9. Navara
9. Mamedyarov
9. Giri
14. Adams 1>
>
>
>

Jan-19-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: PREDICTIONS'~STANDINGS

ABSOLUTE RANKER 4

Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 98

Score,UserID

55,Robin01
54,moronovich
51,wordfunph
~~~~
50,SwitchingQuylthulg
49,scout118
47,Aurora
47,Karposian
47,lostemperor
47,whiteshark
46,Golden Executive
46,rogge
45,YouRang
44,Fiona Macleod
44,WannaBe
43,chessmoron
43,OhioChessFan
42,Keyser Soze
41,cromat
40,WinKing
35,Paragua
33,Penguincw
26,alfamikewhiskey

Jan-19-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER 4

Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 910

Score,UserID

692,Robin01
680,moronovich
654,SwitchingQuylthulg
~~~~
651,lostemperor
633,scout118
625,Golden Executive
623,WannaBe
623,whiteshark
622,Karposian
612,rogge
607,wordfunph
604,YouRang
590,Fiona Macleod
578,Aurora
573,Keyser Soze
569,WinKing
564,OhioChessFan
551,chessmoron
542,cromat
515,Penguincw
463,Paragua
435,alfamikewhiskey

Jan-19-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: PAIR BETTING RANKER 4

Earnings,UserID

$61.43,Robin01
$40.37,WannaBe
$20.19,lostemperor
~~~~
$16.71,wordfunph
$16.33,Penguincw
$15.43,Golden Executive
$14.74,SwitchingQuylthulg
$8.34,scout118
$4.72,YouRang
$2.77,moronovich
$0.27,Fiona Macleod
$-4.10,alfamikewhiskey
$-6.89,Karposian
$-8.60,Keyser Soze
$-10.94,Aurora
$-11.00,OhioChessFan
$-20.28,whiteshark
$-21.20,rogge
$-25.51,chessmoron
$-28.24,WinKing
$-28.94,cromat
$-35.61,Paragua

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