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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 196 OF 285 ·
Later Kibitzing> |
Mar-21-16
 | | lostemperor: Past the halfway marker,<positionalgenius> on pole positionS in the absolute and square ranker edging <MAGNUS CARLSEN> (pseudo-contestant), <rogge> and <lakshashishu>. <MarbleSkull> taking over the lead in the pair bettings. Six rounds to go! |
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Mar-21-16
| | lostemperor: <YouRang>, I successfully included pseudo contestant <COMPUTER> the outcome calculated by analysing thousands of games and results between and of the players http://en.chessbase.com/post/comput... <COMPUTER>
1. Caruana
2. Nakamura*
3. Giri*
4. Aronian
5. Topalov
6. Ananad
6. Karjakin
8. Svidler
*I still have to correct Nakamura and Giri standings to be shared second according to the <COMPUTER> since it only differs 0,3%. Will still want to include pseudo-contestants: <BOOKIES> odds, <ELO> and chessgames <CHESSBOOKIE>. |
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| Mar-21-16 | | Golden Executive: <lostemperor> Great you managed to include the COMPUTER simulations. 7 from 32 in the AR is certainly far from good. Its highest deviations come from Nakamura and Karjakin. |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: <CANDIDATES
<ROUND 9 UPDATE
<Topalov-Svidler 1/2
Anand-Aronian 1-0
Giri-Caruana 1/2
Nakamura-Karjakin 1/2
<standings:
1. Karjakin
1. Anand
3. Aronian
3. Caruana
5. Giri
6. Svidler
7. Nakamura
8. Topalov>> > > |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: <PREDICTIONS RANKINGS> ABSOLUTE RANKING 9
Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation
Maximum score: 32
Score,UserID
20,MarbleSkull
20,moronovich
20,SwitchingQuylthulg
~~~~~~
19,Beholder
19,lakshashishu
18,MAGNUS CARLSEN
18,positionalgenius
18,rogge
18,whiteshark
15,Aurora
15,chessmoron
15,cromat
14,alfamikewhiskey
14,lostemperor
14,WinKing
13,Golden Executive
13,offramp
12,BOOKIES
12,WannaBe
11,OhioChessFan
11,Robin01
11,Schwartz
11,zealandzen
10,wordfunph
9,Karposian
8,Penguincw
7,COMPUTER
7,YouRang |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER 9
Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation
Maximum score: 168
Score,UserID
143,SwitchingQuylthulg
137,Beholder
137,positionalgenius
~~~~~~
135,lakshashishu
133,MarbleSkull
128,moronovich
127,whiteshark
125,MAGNUS CARLSEN
125,rogge
118,cromat
114,Aurora
113,lostemperor
111,alfamikewhiskey
111,chessmoron
108,Golden Executive
108,offramp
107,WinKing
97,zealandzen
91,BOOKIES
86,WannaBe
84,wordfunph
82,OhioChessFan
76,Penguincw
76,Robin01
75,Karposian
74,Schwartz
72,COMPUTER
54,YouRang |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Earnings,UserID
$37.89,WannaBe
$22.54,Aurora
$8.58,lakshashishu
~~~~~~
$7.98,Beholder
$7.98,SwitchingQuylthulg
$5.49,rogge
$4.83,positionalgenius
$-0.06,cromat
$-0.15,whiteshark
$-0.28,zealandzen
$-0.56,MarbleSkull
$-0.86,moronovich
$-0.92,chessmoron
$-1.12,lostemperor
$-1.78,Karposian
$-4.86,Schwartz
$-5.37,OhioChessFan
$-7.76,Golden Executive
$-7.76,offramp
$-8.71,Robin01
$-8.92,alfamikewhiskey
$-9.22,wordfunph
$-10.54,WinKing
$-11.13,Penguincw
$-15.29,YouRang |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners
$25.00,Anand-equal-Karjakin, Aurora
$25.00,Karjakin-above-Caruana, WannaBe
$8.33,Anand-above-Caruana, lakshashishu + Schwartz + WannaBe $8.33,Aronian-equal-Caruana, Karposian + rogge + WannaBe $4.17,Svidler-above-Nakamura, Beholder + chessmoron + OhioChessFan + SwitchingQuylthulg + wordfunph + zealandzen |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Three way tie in The absolute ranker for first
<MarbleSkull><moronovich><SwitchingQuylthulg>.
The latter having the edge in the square ranker also while <WannaBe> holds the top spot again in the pair bettings |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: <Golden Executive> COMPUTERS are certainly beter in playing chess than predicting the outcome! Wat is Maybe even worse are the professional BOOKIES. The are supposed experts to make odds for a living. Having Karjakin and Anand in 5th and 6th place so far. BOOKIES
1. Nakamura
2. Caruana
3. Aronian
4. Giri
5. Karjakin
6. Anand
7. Topalov*
8. Svidler
Seems, not yet corrected Anand is shared 6th with Topalov according to 9 average BOOKIES offices wat is slightly worse still than projected now. |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Btw. I have Anand and Karjakin in 5th 6th too, (altough not my favourite player Nakamura on 1st)! But I am not a professional expert. Just a contest manager :) |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Like I said these were tough predictions where every one can become first or last (;> |
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Mar-22-16
 | | OhioChessFan: I took a shot with Topa, put him third, but not a bit surprised he's last. He seemed to me the real wildcard here. |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Here the BOOKIES ODDS http://en.chessbase.com/post/comput... (lowest diagram). I suppose they hire a professional chess player to determine the odds. <OhioChessFan> According to ELO the ratings, Topalov is shared first with 2780 (but even if he were fifth it makes no difference in the absolute ranker after 9 rounds since the other players are then closer to the expectations) <ELO>
1. Caruana 2794
1. Giri 2793
1. Nakamura 2790
1. Aronian 2786
1. Topalov 2780
6. Anand 2762
6. Karjakin 2760
8. Svidler 2757 |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Here again the standings included ELO the ratings and BOOKIES the odds (revised) Score,UserID
20,MarbleSkull
20,moronovich
20,SwitchingQuylthulg
19,Beholder
19,lakshashishu
18,positionalgenius
18,rogge
18,whiteshark
15,Aurora
15,chessmoron
15,cromat
14,alfamikewhiskey
14,lostemperor
14,WinKing
13,Golden Executive
13,offramp
12,WannaBe
11,BOOKIES ODDS
11,OhioChessFan
11,Robin01
11,Schwartz
11,zealandzen
10,wordfunph
9,Karposian
8,ELO RATINGS
8,Penguincw
7,COMPUTER
7,YouRang |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Square Ranker
Score,UserID
143,SwitchingQuylthulg
137,Beholder
137,positionalgenius
135,lakshashishu
133,MarbleSkull
128,moronovich
127,whiteshark
125,rogge
118,cromat
114,Aurora
113,lostemperor
111,alfamikewhiskey
111,chessmoron
108,Golden Executive
108,offramp
107,WinKing
97,zealandzen
86,WannaBe
85,BOOKIES ODDS
84,wordfunph
82,OhioChessFan
76,Penguincw
76,Robin01
75,Karposian
74,Schwartz
72,COMPUTER
69,ELO RATINGS
54,YouRang |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Pseudo-contestants not doing so well (; |
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| Mar-22-16 | | Karposian: You never know with Topalov. Less than a year ago he won Norway Chess, so he is still able win super tournaments. And I think that one of the reasons for the BOOKIES not doing so well is that they put Naka and Fab on top. So, perhaps a slight bias in favor of the Americans was their undoing. A preference for the US players has ruined my contest as well. That, and placing Anand at rock bottom (I underestimated the old tiger). |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Topalov has been the best player I think for a while when Kasparov retired. Though this is debatable:) |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Even if decide to change ELO into a more favorable line up, or so it seems, since professor Elo cannot speak for himself anymore, it does not help: 1. Caruana 2794
2. Giri 2793
3. Nakamura 2790
4. Aronian 2786
5. Topalov 2780
6. Anand 2762
6. Karjakin 2760
8. Svidler 2757
Here ELO even gets less absolute points 7 (shared last with COMPUTER) :( |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Fair to say that after 9 rounds no one has done worse, absolute, than ELO the ratings or the COMPUTER prognosis! Even though we may have made some risks sometimes :D Just to show how tough the prediction contest is here and how strong the competition!! Even if this can well still change with five rounds to go, it is already a remarkable fact with as many as 25 contestants! |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: And only four predictors here have lower points, absolute, than hired professional chess players of 9 BOOKIE offices (BOOKIES)! Not bad for 25 amateur kibitzers who do this prediction contest for fun!
Though things may heat up in the battle for first in Moscow still. <Karposian> I am not sure that much U.S. bookies are in favor of the American chess players because they are Americans. I have checked a European bookie then who also had Caruana and Nakamura on top. Europeans are not especially in favor of the American players I suppose:) |
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Mar-22-16
 | | WannaBe: <OhioChessFan>'s got a chance at Triple-Crown over at <GE>'s contest. <YouRang>'s got a chance at Triple-Clown over here at <LE>'s contest. Sorry, couldn't resist that one. |
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| Mar-22-16 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> There is one more setting you should make to your Contest Manager control file. In the [Setup] section, just add the line:
<RigInFavorOfYouRang=Yes> Obviously, terrible things can happen if this line is omitted. |
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Mar-22-16
| | lostemperor: Sorry <WannaBe>, I do not award Triple-Clowns! I will try put in that line <YouRang> after the tournament, just in case inexplicable irreversible things will happen:) |
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Later Kibitzing> |
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Kibitzing
