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Jan-28-06
 | | lostemperor: I copy you<Rang>. Well I had little time the last few days and since computer is not something I'm good at. I was planning to install your program with a friend, following your instructions. Okay we'll see how it works out! |
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Jan-30-06
| | lostemperor: Here the final standings of Corus 2006.
1.Topalov, Anand 9
3.Ivanchuk Adams 7½
5.Gelfand, Karjakin 7
7. Tiviakov Aronian Leko 6½
10.van Wely 6
11.Bacrot 5½
12.Mamedyarov, Kamsky 4½
14.Sokolov 4 |
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Jan-30-06
 | | cu8sfan: <lostemperor> How will you calculate the final standings? I think it's 14 points if you predicted the right place and -1 for each place you were wrong. But what about Topalov/Anand? Will I get a full 28 points if I said 1. Topalov/2. Anand or if I said 1. Anand/2. Topalov? I don't know what I said, I'm just curious. |
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Jan-30-06
| | lostemperor: <cu8sfan> both Anand and Topalov will count as first place. This is the fairest way. So unfortunately, if you put 1.Topalov and 2.Anand you will not get the maximum points but one point less (27). You only get the maximum points if you put Anand and Topalov on shared first place. I know this may stimulate shared standing predictions but it should not make much difference, if any, on the whole. Still there will be a format later on, on how to submit predictions so a program (that of YouRang) can easily read it. Hope this helps. |
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Jan-31-06
| | lostemperor: Guys,
here the provisional standings of the chessgames.com predictioncontest on final standings of Corus 2006, lostemperor's countingsystem: for each correct prediction of a Corusplayer's standing, you get a maximum amount of points (14). If your prediction differs one place from the actual standings one point will be substracted. If it differs two points, two will be substacted etc. With the help of a nice program made by <YouRang>. He has put a lot of work in making it (originally for cu8sfan predictioncontest). There will be some minor changes still (for reasons like shared standings countings and else). This was a grueling tournament where it's hard to see who made the best predictions. I decided to give the maximum points to a 1. Topalov and 2. Anand (or vice versa). The amount of points should be added with approximate 6 points. Rank, Points, UserID<
1,164,Ezzy
1,164,percyblakeney
1,164,Tassadar
4,162,dimradil
4,162,LancelotduLac
6,159,twinlark
7,158,AdrianP
7,158,kolobok
7,158,Larsker
7,158,lostemperor
11,156,chessmaster pro
11,156,cu8sfan
11,156,pim
11,156,suenteus po 147
11,156,viapori
11,156,Where is my mind
17,154,babakova
17,154,Catfriend
17,154,diction
17,154,hitman84
17,154,Keshishian
17,154,NakoSonorense
23,153,TIMER
24,152,Appaz
24,152,Bent Bexley
24,152,EmperorAtahualpa
24,152,iron maiden
24,152,Robin01
29,151,radu stancu
30,150,Assassinater
30,150,badmove
30,150,baltez
30,150,Ibelox
30,150,larrewl
30,150,mikejaqua
30,150,offramp
30,150,s4life
30,150,Schwartz
39,148, bobbyboomer
39,148,Dionyseus
39,148,madserg
39,148,rchamoun
39,148,TechN9ne
39,148,VishyFan
39,148,witty
39,148,yannis
48,146,alexmagnus
48,146,awfulhangover
48,146,djmercury
48,146,firebyrd
48,146,mlotay
48,146,mymt
48,146,nintenchess
48,146,Phi
48,146,samikd
48,146,The King Returns1
48,146,thomaspaine
48,146,tnrao
48,146,WannaBe
48,146,yalie
62,145,InfinityCircuit
63,144,cromat
63,144,fxenderby
63,144,lmreith
63,144,Swapmeet
63,144,YouRang
68,142,Dim Weasel
68,142,LondonSystem
68,142,morphyisfratello
68,142,petrovalovski
68,142,zarra
73,141,Annie K.
74,140,cade
75,139,Montreal1666
76,138,Udit Narayan
77,136,notsodeepthought
78,134,strifeknot
78,134,weepingwarrior
80,130,Jafar219
81,126,Chnebelgrind
82,118,ozchess
>
So there may likely be some changes in countings/points still (and there can also be some tight ranking tie-breaker). But it seems pretty clear that <Ezzy>, <percyblakeney> and <Tassadar> has won this contest! Well done! Thank you all for participating! |
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| Jan-31-06 | | firebyrd: <both Anand and Topalov will count as first place> ... <it should not make much difference, if any, on the whole> Example, 2-man, 1-game tournament, say win/draw/loss is equiprobable, Predicting shared first will give you 2+1=3 points in the case of a win, and 2+2=4 points in the case of a draw - mean score: 3 1/3.
Predicting 1st and 2nd place will give you 4 points if the right person wins, 2 if he loses, and 3 if they draw, mean score: 3 So it does make a difference. But as long as it is known it is equal for everyone. Will Linares be scored the same way? |
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| Jan-31-06 | | hitman84: <lostemporor>ohh.. i was that close..
damn i feel like a lost emperor <;-> hey btw <percyblakeney>,<Ezzy> and <Tassadar> cgrts!! <lostemperor>,<yourang> nice
organisation!!
the next time around,
maybe i need to take some tips frm astrologers hey wait...i guess next time i need to take some tips frm historians
<;-> |
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Jan-31-06
| | lostemperor: <Firebyrd> yes that's right of course, it can make a difference. I wasn't planning to do that but since both Anand and Topalov wins the tournament and by far most people predicted them on 1st and 2nd place I thought I make an exception. For Linares the rules will be the same (without exceptions). Though I like to check if there are perhaps better readible formats for computer (and man:). I will get beck on this a.s.a.p. but for now things will be the same. |
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Jan-31-06
 | | Chnebelgrind: After careful consideration I come to the conclusion that I am not very much interested in who is winning or muffing a chess tournament. There are things in life which are much more important. |
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Jan-31-06
| | lostemperor: That's right <Chnebelgrind>. But as it is, predicting results is as old as sports itself. Kasparov use to do it often, Short too, just to name a few. Jeff Sonas makes "predicting" the outcome of a tournament a scientifical issue. Although he is not really predicting. But you're right there are much more important things in life:) |
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| Jan-31-06 | | TIMER: <lostemperor> Thanks for running the contest.I see you said add ~6 points explaining why I had less points than I expected. I predicted 3 of the top 4 right but went wrong with less familiar players lower down. |
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| Jan-31-06 | | YouRang: Good work <lostemperor>. Your results agree with mine, and I'm glad to see that you got the software to work for you. P.S. As you know, the software was free, except for the modest fee of 20 contest points -- which would just happen to put me in a tie for 1st place! ;-) |
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Feb-01-06
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> LOL! Ever considered changing your name in <YouRank>?!:) |
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Feb-01-06
| | lostemperor: <hitman84:.. next time i need to take some tips frm historians> what is it you want to know:) "They say the emperor is in Beijing, But there are mountains" -- Vishy Anand |
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| Feb-01-06 | | hitman84: <lostemperor><next time i need to take some tips frm historians>well may be u dunno that <percyblakeney> is a historian i was referring to him ;-) i dunno how a historian predicts future correctly ;-) |
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| Feb-01-06 | | hitman84: <"They say the emperor is in Beijing, But there are mountains"> i guess he is a lost emperor ;-) |
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Feb-01-06
| | lostemperor: <TIMER> There should be 5 points added to my former list which went for a maximum of 191 instead of 196. Some will get 6 points because of their placing of Leko, Aronian and Tiviakov who shared 7 place (ave. 8). I have calculated you for 158 points. Is that in accordance to your calculations? |
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Feb-01-06
| | lostemperor: <hitman84> no the lost emperor is right here (;> |
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| Feb-01-06 | | hitman84: <no the lost emperor is right here>if u r here how can u be lost ? :-) |
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Feb-01-06
| | lostemperor: Take it from me, I'm lost.
<i dunno how a historian predicts future correctly> by looking at the past. Unfortunately history always seems to repeat itself! |
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| Feb-01-06 | | hitman84: <lostemperor>very clever!!
<Take it from me, I'm lost.>
dont worry i wont hurt u though i'm hitman ,i know u r not lost :-) i guess then i need a time machine to stop the historian ;-) |
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| Feb-01-06 | | percyblakeney: Since I seem to be in the flow at the moment I’ll make an early Linares prediction: 1. Topalov +4
2. Ivanchuk +2
3-4. Leko, Svidler =
5-7. Aronian, Bacrot, Radjabov -1
8. Vallejo -3 |
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| Feb-01-06 | | hitman84: <percyblakeney><I’ll make an early Linares prediction> u mean 2006 linares right ? :-) if its yes lemme jot it down.. |
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| Feb-01-06 | | larrewl: <percyblakeney: Since I seem to be in the flow at the moment> In the flow of what? Lava? Just curious. |
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| Feb-01-06 | | percyblakeney: I'm in the flow of good predictions. The best game of Linares 2006 will be Topalov-Radjabov :-) |
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