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| Feb-06-06 | | Bobak Zahmat: <lostemperor> Hi friend, did you visit Corus Tournament? Anyhow, here are my predictions for Linares final standings: 1) Topalov
2) Ivanchuk
3) Svidler
4) Aronian
5) Leko
6) Radjabov
7) Bacrot
8) Vallejo-Pons
I think Topalov is in this edition clearly the favourite. Hopefully we will see more firework from Leko than last year. Enjoy! |
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| Feb-07-06 | | Where is my mind: Predictions for the final standings of Linares 2006.
1. Topalov
2. Svidler
2. Ivanchuk
2. Leko
5. Aronian
5. Bacrot
5. Radjabov
8. Vallejo
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Feb-07-06
 | | lostemperor: <Bobak Zahmat> yes it was pretty awesome at Corus! |
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Feb-07-06
| | lostemperor: <Lautje>, die twee zusters van vroeger waar ik het met jou over had heten Cameron. Ze zijn getrouwd ofzo en schaken niet meer. Jammer. |
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Feb-07-06
| | lostemperor: Soon (tomorrow perhaps, the results of chessauthorities on predictions of Corus. What did Elo, Betsson, chessgames.com kibitzers on average, chessbase.com readers and expert Jeff Sonas on Coruspresdiction and who did best of these all? While I am still thinking of my Linares predictions. |
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| Feb-07-06 | | Bobak Zahmat: <lostemperor> He, ik wist niet dat je uit Nederland kwam! :) |
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| Feb-07-06 | | Bobak Zahmat: <lostemperor> Do you organize a prediction contest for Aeroflot Tournament? |
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| Feb-07-06 | | bobbyboomer: My predictions for Linares 2006:
1. Topalov
2. Svidler
3. Ivanchuk
4. Leko
5. Aronian
6. Radjabov
7. Bacrot
8. Vallejo-Pons
Thanks!! |
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| Feb-08-06 | | Jafar219: What is the offical site of Linares 2006? |
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Feb-08-06
 | | cu8sfan: The only site I know of is www.moreliachess.com/eng/Linares.asp |
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Feb-08-06
| | lostemperor: <Bobak Zahmat> nee, I do not organize a predictioncontest for aeroflot. |
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| Feb-08-06 | | Appaz: Linares 2006:
1. Topalov
2. Ivanchuk
3. Aronian
4. Svidler
5. Leko
6. Radjabov
7. Bacrot
8. Vallejo |
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Feb-08-06
| | lostemperor: Here a comparison of how chessgroups and authorities on chess rankings did on their predictions of Corus 2006. How did <Elo>, on rating order; <Betsson>, on bettingodds; <Chessgames.com> the average kibitzers' predictions; <Chessbase.com> readers predictions (2500 readers) and the guru of mathematical statistical prognosis <Jeff Sonas> do in their predictions? I have calculated how many points (lostemperor countingsystem) they would have gotten . Who do you think made the best predictions of them all? The maximum of 196 points again. The information of the chessbase,com readers and Jeff Sonas is taken from http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail... . Let's start from the bottom.
Fifth place.
140 points <chessbase.com> readers.
2500 chessbase.com readers have submitted their predictions to that site (see link above) fourth place:
149 points:< Elo> If you put your predictions b ased on order of rating this is the points what is achieved. Not in the top 50% of the 80 participants of the predictioncontest (by lostemperor). Third place.
153 points <Betsson> the betting odds order. Just in the top 50% of the predictioncontest. Second place.
155 points:< Chessgames.com> average predictions of all participants. Nice :) First place.
157 points, He did it. <Jeff sonas>. the expert on mathematical statistical ranking calculations.) But if you compare Jeff Sonas with the (top)predictions of the chessgames.com participants, he would be 25th place shared (he will get 3 points of the maximum 8 points for the predictioncontest here). Since the top 20% predictions of the chessgames.com participants scored 161 points or more. Cheers! |
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| Feb-08-06 | | YouRang: Interesting comparisons :)
Actually, I would have guessed that Sonas would have done as well as anyone. I have high regard for his rating and analysis techniques. I believe he also did well with his forecasts for the San Luis tournament. |
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Feb-08-06
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> yes, I should (and will) take a look at the Jeff Sonas San Luis "predictions". This is what chessbase said about Jeff Sonas in the article <"Well, that is what we mortals think. How about a professional? One of the replies we received was from Jeff Sonas, a statistician who has done extensive work on chess. Jeff sent us his opinion in the form of an article with a full breakdown of each individual player and his expected score">. maybe Jeff is mortal after all or we just have the best predictors among us ;) |
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| Feb-08-06 | | YouRang: As I recall, Sonas didn't actually predict final standings, but he gave some analysis regarding each player's chances of winning. I remember that Sonas' most surprising forecast was that Svidler would have a slightly better chance of winning San Luis than Leko. (Leko would have a better chance if +1 or +2 were sufficient to win, but this was considered unlikely given the overall styles of the players.) |
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Feb-09-06
| | lostemperor: <YouRang> I also have respect for Jeff's mathematical statistics. But numbers don't lie. This countingsystem doesn't lie. It is the best objective calculation so far I know to measure a prediction. But we musn't forget <Jeff Sonas> did win the above mentioned contest of the groups and experts. He was clearly better than the group of chessbase and also than Elo. He was only slightly better than the chessgames perticipants, on average, though. I have calculated Sonas ' predictions on San Luis WC http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail... and he scored 51 points. What is again better, but slightly, than Elo (50 points). Worse than the bettingodds (53 points). I didn't have the average ranking report because you did not give it then:). But the top 50% predictions got 50 points or more in San Luis. So we may conclude (from 2 tournaments) that Jeff Sonas has a more reliable formula than Elo and that chessgames predictors do well. And I don't mean just the toppredictors but all the predictors on average! |
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| Feb-09-06 | | YouRang: <lostemperor> Actually, I did initially develop the software using the WCC tournament predictions. Here are the average standings predicted by chessgames.com members for WCC San Luis: Average Ranking
2005 World Chess Championship Tournament
Rounds: All [14 complete]
AvgRnk,Player,LoRank,HiRank
1.97,Anand,1,8
2.05,Topalov,1,5
2.76,Leko,1,7
5.00,Svidler,1,8
5.25,Polgar,1,8
5.27,Adams,1,8
5.71,Morozevich,1,8
6.91,Kasimjanov,1,8
So, you can now use your methods to see how well we did. (Can you believe that someone predicted Anand would finish last!) Given the high expectation for Leko and the low expectation for Morozevich, I would guess that we didn't do great. :) |
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Feb-09-06
| | lostemperor: Well that was fast. <I rang> and you provide :)! Thanks. That is 50 points of the maximum 64 points for the average predictions of chessgames.com kibitzers. Equally as Elo. This is one point less than Jeff Sonas 51. So Sonas won this too by a small margin. The margin with Elo was bigger at Corus. This immediately proves that the question posed at http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail... is Sonas rating formula is better than Elo, should be answered affirmative. |
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| Feb-11-06 | | Assassinater: For linares:
1. Topalov
2. Ivanchuk
3. Svidler
4. Leko
5. Aronian
6. Bacrot
7. Radjabov
8. Vallejo |
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| Feb-11-06 | | iron maiden: Linares predictions:
1. Topalov, +4
2. Ivanchuk, +1
3. Svidler, +1
4. Leko,  0
5. Bacrot, -1
6. Aronian, -1
7. Radjabov, -1
8. Vallejo, -3 |
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| Feb-11-06 | | EmperorAtahualpa: As far as I know, there are a couple of regular Dutch kibitzers on this website, let me sum up those that I know of: 1. <lostemperor>
2. <sneaky pete>
3. <sitzkrieg>
4. <Kriegspiel> (not sure about this one) 5. <bobak zahmat>
6. <dakgootje> (obviously) :) 7. <Edwin Meyer>
8. me, <EmperorAtahualpa>! Did I forget about anyone? |
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Feb-12-06
| | lostemperor: You know that old slogan from the English comentator of MTV: <Stay in touch with the Dutch>. And in light of that I have the first report (not yet on the internet)of the winner of yesterday's open Dutch blitz championship. It is Sergei Tiviakov. Kasimdzhanov became 11th btw. Later you will find this confirmed at the official site http://www.blitzchess.nl/eng/. And the Dutch ch. sh, semi-final is busy today as I speak at http://www.schaakbond.nl/nieuws/nk2... (you may want to check "live games"). |
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Feb-12-06
 | | Annie K.: Hi, <lostemperor>! :) Placing my bets for Linares: 1. Topalov
2. Ivanchuk
2. Svidler
4. Aronian
4. Leko
6. Radjabov
6. Vallejo
8. Bacrot |
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| Feb-12-06 | | zarra: My predictions for Linares:
1. Topalov
2. Svidler
3. Ivanchuk
4. Aronian
5. Bacrot
6. Leko
7. Radjabov
8. Vallejo
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