tessathedog: This ending seems to be identical to Salwe-Rubinstein 1908 with colours reversed. This is analysed in Dvorestsky on page 245 in the 3rd edition. Interesting that even a strong GM like Yasser (of course, in fairness he was under the pressure of having to make an instant 'commentator's call") called it as 'an easy win' when it appeared on the board. However, my understanding from Dvoretsky is as follows...Firstly, the plan adopted by Aronian was the same one adopted by Rubinstein, attempting to drive the defending king to the 'west', hoping to run back with his own king to make a winning exchange sacrifice at the right moment. But with correct defence, this winning plan does not succeed with the pawns on the middle two ranks, as Navara demonstrated. Dvoretsky showed that if the pawns were one rank further up, that's more favourable for the stronger side.
Nevertheless, Rubinstein succeeded in winning with Levon's plan, but only because Salwe slipped up. Not realising that he could not be forced too far 'west', he panicked and headed 'south' and lost touch with the exchange sacrifice.
Secondly, the correct winning plan, which involves NOT driving the king to the 'west', but rather, locking him in the 'north east corner' and then achieving a difficult zugszwang, was finally found by Maizelis in 1963. The zugszwang position is White Rook on e1, King on g6, and Black bishop on g4 and King on f8, with pawns on h4 and h5 of course. Maizelis showed how to force this position. This was quite an analytical achievement, as even Keres had deemed the position drawn.
Of course, it would be difficult to achieve this zugzwang in a practical classical game let alone a blitz game! The only hope one would have is if one remembered it from Dvoretsky. I was fortunate enough to be watching the game live, and having studied this section of Dvorestsky just a couple of weeks ago, I was able to make the connection, although even then it didn't 'hit me' until after the game had ended.
So, in summary, both Aronian and Rubinstein embarked on a faulty winning plan. Rubinstein got lucky whereas Aronian didn't. The correct winning plan of Maizelis is really only a practical possibility if one knew the history of this ending, and was able to recall all of this calmly and rationally with three seconds on one's clock...almost impossible for poor Levon of course.
Kibitzing
