< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 161 OF 161 ·
|Oct-28-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: Good luck!
All the more as I'd also be happy to see Caruana win :)
|Oct-28-14|| ||dakgootje: Oh why did I forget to bet the draw at Radja-Mamed. Even with my terrible record for straight bets this tournament - that would've been free money. Odds were even at 1.39 - how about that..|
I think we'll need some help for Caruana - the position doesn't look overly inspiring.
|Oct-28-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: Caruana did win :)
One more RxR move please...
|Oct-28-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: ...rats.
Oh well, still made a neat profit :)
|Oct-28-14|| ||dakgootje: Same :)
Profit of 1700 - although I suspect I lucked out with Caruana. But I'll take the win ^^
|Oct-28-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: I like these unusual propositions... more value :)|
|Oct-28-14|| ||dakgootje: I thought you would ;D
Occasionally I check them out, to see whether I can find any edge or angle on it. So interestingly, I had something small on the 8 for RxR as well. And subsequently, when the games were underway, I thought that value might actually have been on 'Others'.
Not that it matters as that didn't hit either of course :P
|Oct-28-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: I figured 7, 8 and Others all had value... though given how much money was on 1 (what's the opposite of value?), one would have been excused for taking the safe and lazy way out and backing everything except 1 :)|
|Oct-28-14|| ||dakgootje: < I figured 7, 8 and Others all had value...>|
Yup, quite possibly.
I didn't use a better, or more reliable, method for this than.. eye-balling it. But I thought there was no way for value on options 1-4. They seemed unlikely in any case - let alone at the prices they went for.
So I didn't consider 5 either; and 6 was expensive. Number 7 seemed plausible, but I wasn't quite sure, so I shied away. Probably too cautious. Number 8 had better odds, and I thought it was still rather likely, so I bet it. Didn't like the price of Others, but when games had started and I actually gave it some thought, the price did seem justified. And indeed, probably value there.
I guess the opposite of value is negative value. Could go with non-value, but that sounds artificial. Besides, that could mean a neutral bet as well.
|Oct-28-14|| ||centralfiles: I actually went through some games before deciding the odds were just a bit more than 1 per game.
Then for some reason thinking there are 8 games dropping 500 on others.
Though i did realize my mistake in time and had enough on 6-7 to make some profit.
IMO there was no value on other at all there are just too many games with 0 for 9 or higher to be likely.|
|Oct-28-14|| ||centralfiles: I'll be taking a break for at least 3 weeks starting now any changes in my NW is just the old bets coming due.|
|Oct-28-14|| ||dakgootje: Ah, we currently inhabit spots 2, 3 and 4 in the leaderboard. Only timeless Timer is yet ahead.|
<cf>< I'll be taking a break for at least 3 weeks starting now any changes in my NW is just the old bets coming due.>
Okay - see you then! Good luck with your other endeavors in the meantime :)
|Oct-28-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <centralfiles> Good luck! We'll keep pressuring <TIMER> in the meantime... perhaps we'll be #1, #2 and #3 when you return :)|
|Oct-29-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: And good luck <dakkie> :)|
|Oct-29-14|| ||dakgootje: <SQ>
You too! :)
I missed my rounds closing-time today - so I only have 1k on the line. I think I'd like to see a fair number of draws today :)
|Oct-29-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: Wouldn't mind that :)
Already made a c$200 profit thanks to Andreikin's 10.Qb1.
|Oct-29-14|| ||dakgootje: Nice job!
I'm curious whether Giri can convert his advantage against Jakovenko. Q vs RBP, and engines really like his position. I'd certainly take white as well, but wouldn't know how to convert, and probably therefore draw the game.
I mean, black doesn't really have weaknesses, and white has a piece fewer to attack any weaknesses if they appear. So I'd guess that black could hold.
|Oct-29-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <dakgootje: Nice job!
I'm curious whether Giri can convert his advantage against Jakovenko. Q vs RBP, and engines really like his position. I'd certainly take white as well, but wouldn't know how to convert, and probably therefore draw the game.>
I'd be quite happy with that against Jakovenko :)
|Oct-29-14|| ||dakgootje: Where is your fighting spirit?! ;D
Giri drew Jakovenko - apparently the opening [including the trade of queen vs pieces] was played previously. They mentioned Bacrot in the pressconference, though I couldn't find the game in the cg-db. So, with no real winning chances himself, apparently Jakovenko thought the position was drawish anyways.
I checked the press conference of Gelfand - Jobava as well. Even with that run-through, I generally had no idea what was going on.
Luckily, I don't have to - only to predict. Had a nice day, with 1k in profits :)
|Oct-29-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <I checked the press conference of Gelfand - Jobava as well. Even with that run-through, I generally had no idea what was going on.>|
Did it sound like they did?
I also made about c$1000 today... seems we're finally moving in lockstep. Which I'm happy with as long as I'm ahead :)
|Oct-29-14|| ||Annie K.: Made 2000 today... only problem is, as usual, the starting point. ;s|
Was betting on Draw-Anything-Draw. :)
|Oct-29-14|| ||dakgootje: <Did it sound like they did? >|
Yeah, more or less. To my eye there were a myriad of variations possible with utterly unclear evaluations - but they tended to agree what was probably the best move.
But Jobava did end the press conference saying that it was a very complex game.
<seems we're finally moving in lockstep. Which I'm happy with as long as I'm ahead :)>
And as long as we're doing okay -- it'd be useless to plummet in lockstep ^^
I'd be fine with that.. except for the final day of the leg :P
<Made 2000 today... only problem is, as usual, the starting point. ;s>
Ah, but now you have monies to play with! To invest! The top of the leaderboard is in your reach :o
|Oct-31-14|| ||SwitchingQuylthulg: <dakkie> Good luck!|
Unfortunately I was a bit late today... did get some closing-time bets in, but not as many as I'd have liked (and none on the Openings Triple). Some blackguard had adjusted the internal game clock so it's half a minute ahead of real time, instead of a couple minutes behind :(
|Oct-31-14|| ||dakgootje: Faen. I just forget my late bets <again>. That might be the third time this tournament alone :P|
Even so, 800 on the line. So let's not lose yesterrounds winnings. ^^
Good luck :)
|Oct-31-14|| ||dakgootje: <Some blackguard had adjusted the internal game clock so it's half a minute ahead of real time, instead of a couple minutes behind :(>|
I was just being silly myself. Was reading this interesting vacancy, and totally forgot that <more important> things were afoot.
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