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chancho
Member since May-16-05
<Jer 20:10-13

Jeremiah said:

"I hear the whisperings of many:
'Terror on every side!
Denounce!
Let us denounce him!'
All those who were my friends are on the watch for any misstep of mine.

Perhaps he'll be trapped; then we can prevail, and take our vengeance on him.

But the LORD is with me, like a mighty champion: my persecutors will stumble, they will not triumph.

In their failure, they will be put to utter shame, to lasting, unforgettable confusion.

O LORD of hosts, you who test the just, who probe mind and heart, let me witness the vengeance you take on them, for to you, I have entrusted my cause.

Sing to the LORD,
praise the LORD,
for he has rescued the life of the poor
from the power of the wicked!">

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

<1 Corinthians 13

13 If I speak in the tongues of men or of angels, but do not have love, I am only a resounding gong or a clanging cymbal. 2 If I have the gift of prophecy and can fathom all mysteries and all knowledge, and if I have a faith that can move mountains, but do not have love, I am nothing. 3 If I give all I possess to the poor and give over my body to hardship that I may boast, but do not have love, I gain nothing.

4 Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud. 5 It does not dishonor others, it is not self-seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs. 6 Love does not delight in evil but rejoices with the truth. 7 It always protects, always trusts, always hopes, always perseveres.

8 Love never fails. But where there are prophecies, they will cease; where there are tongues, they will be stilled; where there is knowledge, it will pass away.

9 For we know only in part, and we prophesy only in part; 10 but when the complete comes, the partial will come to an end. 11 When I was a child, I spoke like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child; when I became an adult, I put an end to childish ways. 12 For now we see in a mirror, dimly, but then we will see face to face. Now I know only in part; then I will know fully, even as I have been fully known. 13 And now faith, hope, and love abide, these three; and the greatest of these is love.>

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

<The Promise of the Lord's Coming

The Second Letter of Peter

Chapter 3

1 This is now, beloved, the second letter I am writing to you; in them I am trying to arouse your sincere intention by reminding you

2 that you should remember the words spoken in the past by the holy prophets, and the commandment of the Lord and Savior spoken through your apostles.

3 First of all you must understand this, that in the last days scoffers will come, scoffing and indulging their own lusts

4 and saying, Where is the promise of his coming? For ever since our ancestors died, all things continue as they were from the beginning of creation!?

5 They deliberately ignore this fact, that by the word of God heavens existed long ago and an earth was formed out of water and by means of water,

6 through which the world of that time was deluged with water and perished.

7 But by the same word the present heavens and earth have been reserved for fire, being kept until the day of judgment and destruction of the godless.

8 But do not ignore this one fact, beloved, that with the Lord one day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like one day.

9 The Lord is not slow about his promise, as some think of slowness, but is patient with you, not wanting any to perish, but all to come to repentance.

10 But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, and then the heavens will pass away with a loud noise, and the elements will be dissolved with fire, and the earth and everything that is done on it will be disclosed.

11 Since all these things are to be dissolved in this way, what sort of persons ought you to be in leading lives of holiness and godliness,

12 waiting for and hastening the coming of the day of God, because of which the heavens will be set ablaze and dissolved, and the elements will melt with fire?

13 But, in accordance with his promise, we wait for new heavens and a new earth, where righteousness is at home.

Final Exhortation and Doxology

14 Therefore, beloved, while you are waiting for these things, strive to be found by him at peace, without spot or blemish;

15 and regard the patience of our Lord as salvation. So also our beloved brother Paul wrote to you according to the wisdom given him,

16 speaking of this as he does in all his letters. There are some things in them hard to understand, which the ignorant and unstable twist to their own destruction, as they do the other scriptures.

17 You therefore beloved, since you are forewarned, beware that you are not carried away with the error of the lawless and lose your own stability.

18 But grow in the grace and knowledge of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. To him be the glory both now and to the day of eternity.

Amen.>

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

<Psalm 23

The Lord is my shepherd; there is nothing I shall not want.

2 He maketh me to lie down in green pastures: he leadeth me beside the still waters.

3 He restoreth my soul: he leadeth me in the paths of righteousness for his name's sake.

4 Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me.

5 Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over.

6 Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life: and I will dwell in the house of the Lord for ever.>

Chessgames.com Full Member

   chancho has kibitzed 44554 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Sep-22-25 A Kimmel (replies)
 
chancho: Look who's back!
 
   Sep-20-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
chancho: I see nary a mention of Terrance Crawford defeating Canelo Alvarez on this page. First guy to win undisputed championships in three weight divisions. Henry Armstrong won three back in the 30's, but they were not undisputed. Manny Pacquiao won 8... but again, not undisputed. Crawford
 
   Aug-14-25 Chessgames - Guys and Dolls (replies)
 
chancho: More, More, More. (Andrea True)
 
   Jun-07-25 Norway Chess (2025) (replies)
 
chancho: He left the championship on his own terms. He has won everything in sight. No better way to exit the stage.
 
   Jun-03-25 D Gukesh vs Carlsen, 2025 (replies)
 
chancho: Also called: The Angry Fist.
 
   May-27-25 Carlsen vs D Gukesh, 2025 (replies)
 
chancho: <Poor is the apprentice who does not surpass his Master.”" - Leonardo da Vinci>
 
   May-24-25 Bogdan Pietrusiak
 
chancho: His highest rating was 2310 according to this link which translates in Polish and Spanish: https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bogda...
 
   May-09-25 Chessgames - Music (replies)
 
chancho: All this Steely Dan talk... Here's a song from 1973: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-h-...
 
   Apr-29-25 perfidious chessforum (replies)
 
chancho: Perf, just heard about this: <The White House has hit back against a reported plan by Amazon to detail the price impact of Donald Trump's trade tariffs to its customers, calling it a "hostile" political act.> https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c... It's like, how dare Amazon
 
   Apr-26-25 John Eyre (replies)
 
chancho: From Tournament: 33rd Hastings Premier 1957/58... One-Week Open B: (1) <John Eyre> (London N14) 4½/5; (2) Peter Merrett (East Grinstead) 3½; (3) William Arnold Parkin-Moore (Mitcheldean) 2½; (4) N. W. Robinson 2; (5) R. L. Baker 1½; (6) Lewis James Worsell 1. ...
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Chess and Things

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 80 OF 200 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Nov-15-09  Jim Bartle: "...a hundred swooping bats."

What a great line.

Nov-15-09  technical draw: Uy, le dieron de arroz y de masa. Creo que tenian que detener la pelea antes o por lo menos la esquina tirar la toalla.. Le quitas una "e" a pelea y que queda? pela! ( como dice Hector Vazquez Muñiz) Wow, Papo!
Nov-15-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  chancho: Hola <technical draw>. Mi hijo me convencio a pagar los 55 dolares para ver esa pelea en PPV, y despues de ver ese masacre, lo lamento. Boohooo!
Nov-15-09  technical draw: Cotto received $7,000,000 dollars for the fight. Ok so he was bruised a little, so what? "You can't count your money while fighting in the ring, there'll be plenty time for counting once the fightings done"...
Nov-15-09
Premium Chessgames Member
  chancho: <technical draw> Si, el tipo recibio una pela y bien pagada ademas. Pero Cotto es un deportista y esa derrota le va a doler por un buen tiempo. El tambien comprende que con esa derrota, la possibilad de ganar mas lana de esa clase va a ser mucho mas dificil ya que su elite status perdio algo de el valor que tenia posteriormente.
Nov-15-09  technical draw: Creo que tienes razon <chancho>. Ademas de esos 7 millones tiene que pagarle a su equipo y los impuestos y todo eso...Y en la próxima pelea no le van a pagar esa cantidad así que a entrenar se ha dicho!
Nov-16-09  you vs yourself: So Bill Belichick was right to go for it on 4th and 2: http://www.advancednflstats.com/200...

Fun to see the sports analysts rip BB apart as it shows how clueless all these guys are. They are making it seem like it was the worst decision ever.

Nov-16-09  technical draw: <So Bill Belichick was right to go for it on 4th and 2:>

The manipulation of stats to derive best play options is not good coaching. There are too many variables in a real game to allow for "mathematics" to make your decision. I wonder if these coaches have computers that tell them all these variables? OMG computers even in football!, say it ain't so, Joe.

Nov-16-09  you vs yourself: At least it's clear that it's not the worst decision ever like these analysts are making it seem. I felt it was a close decision and the numbers are massively in favor of giving the ball to Brady there. After 3 super bowl wins and going 11-5 with Cassell as QB, you'd think some of these guys would give Belichick the benefit of doubt before ripping him like it was the dumbest decision ever.
Nov-16-09  Jim Bartle: His excellent past record should not protect Belichick from a poor decision which led to a loss. He decided to risk letting Indy drive 30 yards rather than 70 in less than two minutes, on the chance that his offense could gain two yards.

A terrible decision, and he deserves the criticism.

Nov-16-09  you vs yourself: Jim, if we are going by math and logic, he actually made the right call and it wasn't even close. In the link I gave, those guys do their analysis based on a huge sample size. We can't be results oriented now. He made the right decision with the information he had.
Nov-16-09  technical draw: The reason this decision has gotten such bad reviews is because it is counter intuitive. You just DON'T run a fourth down play so close to your own goal line. You just kick that sucker as far away as you can and let the chips fall where they may.

I'm on the bad call team.

Nov-16-09  Jim Bartle: If Belichik made the right call, then ALL coaches have been making the wrong decision for a hundred years. Which I admit is possible.

I'll read your link in a second, but first my analysis. (I remember a similar squabble when Dodger manager Tommy LaSorda pitched to Jack Clark with a one run lead, runners on second and third, against the Cards in the 85 playoffs. Clark hit a series-winning home run, and everybody roasted LaSorda for not walking Clark. Later Bill James analyzed the outcomes and proved that LaSorda made the best choice.)

Chance of gaining 2 yards and ending the game: 60%.
Chance of Colts scoring from 30 yards out: 70%.
Chance of Colts scoring from 70 yards out: 35%. (Remember, Manning had thrown interceptions or not scored in several previous drives.)

So, going for out, chance of losing: 40% x 70%, or 28%.

Punting, chance of losing: 35%.

Wait a second! Let me manipulate those figures for a moment.

Nov-16-09  Jim Bartle: OK, looked at the link, analysis not that different from mine.

One other factor, more long term: Belichik was in effect telling his defense that he didn't have confidence in them, that he was willing to take a big gamble to avoid putting them back on the field.

Nov-16-09  technical draw: Be careful. Generalized statistics can be misleading. Remember all 4th and 2 situations are not the same. The correct statistic would be 4th and 2 on your own 30 yard line when you are ahead and there are 2 minutes to play. Find all those situations, check the results, then come up with a percentage.
Nov-16-09  you vs yourself: Jim, all this talk about him having confidence on his defense is a little misleading. If they punt would he be showing lack of confidence in Brady, Moss and co. that they can't get 2 more yards? Is he showing confidence in his defense that they can stop Manning from 30 yards x% of the time for the gamble to be worth it?

<TD> Those stats are indeed misleading because not all teams have Brady as QB and Moss, Welker as receivers. If they only check on these guys, the % would be surely higher in favor of Pats going for it.

Nov-16-09  technical draw: <YvY> Are you saying that Brady and co, score more from 70 yards out than from 30? Precisely because of Brady you get that ball as far away from the goal line as you can. You must remember that your team is ahead so you can't count "desperate" maneuvers in your planning; the other team has to take the risks.
Nov-16-09  Jim Bartle: Were I on the Pats defense, I certainly would have taken it as an indication that my coach didn't have confidence that we could stop the other team from moving 70 yards in two minutes.

I guess Brady and Moss had great games, though I didn't see any of it until the last five minutes. Moss is really incredible, and the Pats have gotten him to play hard and for the team, something he didn't always do with the Vikes and never did in Oakland.

Up 31-14 in the 4th quarter and lose? Wow. A pretty bad gaffe by NE was to run out of timeouts with two minutes left, leaving them unable to challenge the spot on that fourth-down play. A challenge might have given them the two yards.

Nov-16-09  you vs yourself: One of the few articles I saw agreeing with BB's decision http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...
Nov-16-09  technical draw: <One of the few articles I saw agreeing with BB's decision>

That's because he's using the same mathematical source that JB gives above. Math, schmath, punt the ball and let the other team (the one that's losing) take the risks.

Nov-16-09  Jim Bartle: I really, really dislike that writer Posnanski. He always seems to take forever to get to his point, and then pounds it in over and over.
Nov-16-09  you vs yourself: You might disagree with it and it's fine. But I posted that link to point out that this was not an impulsive, dumb or arrogant call. It was a sound call based on percentages and the way pats & colts offense and defense played in that game up to that point.
Nov-16-09  Jim Bartle: I like the discussion. It's interesting, as it's always interesting to look at strategies and see if they make sense. The funny thing is everything tells me Belichick's decision was terrible, yet reasonable numbers suggest it wasn't.
Nov-16-09  you vs yourself: Almost no other coach in history would for it since:

a)Most don't have the job security to try this risky yet correct play. b)Most don't have this kind of knowledge and data available to them. c)Those who do have the job security are too conservative to try it or not gutsy enough to face the music when it doesn't work. d)Most of the time the opposing quarterback is Trent Dilfer, Chad Pennington, Jamarcus Russell, Kyle Orton, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Cutler etc. So you punt. e)Belichick probably has the stats on Manning's 2 min drill success and having scored 14 points in the 4th quarter in 2:05 and 1:55 already, he felt the gamble is worth it. f)Especially worth it since you have Brady and co. who already put up 34 points on colts defense and they only needed 2 yards.

The cool thing in all this is if he had the same situation again, Belichick would go for it without a second thought. Because it is the right play. I think he's advancing football theory here. It'll take some time for others to try it even if they knew it's right after what happened to Belichick here.

Nov-16-09  Jim Bartle: JaMarcus Russell? The chance of scoring from 30 yards would be exactly the same as from 70 yards--0%.
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