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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 190 OF 501 ·
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| Jul-28-10 | | wordfunph: ouch! it's unfortunate that all Biel participants didn't tie for 1st.. :) thanks <mal>.. |
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| Jul-28-10 | | malthrope: <wordfunph: ouch! it's unfortunate that all Biel participants didn't tie for 1st.. :) thanks <mal>..> <wordfunph> - hope my analysis was correct as I was involved in one of these winning bets before (multiple ties for 1st place). If I recall correctly that's how it was done (unless it has been changed from the previous time and I missed the 'memo'). In fact <ChessBookie> himself explained all this (probably more than once) before here in his kibitz forum. ;) Besides, <Switch> I know has all this stuff memorized and he'll set the record straight! ~lol~ He always does... :^) - Mal |
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| Jul-29-10 | | edsauced: Hmmm, if the procedure outlined by malthrope is correct, it favors heavily to the favorite bettors. IMO the fairest way would be to divide the payout money (the sum of all losing bets * 0.95) in 3 parts, and proceed to pay with each part each player bets (plus the initial bet). To me it looks unfair that both Vachier and Nguyen bets are paid the same, being that one was 3.5:1 and the other was 64:1 BTW, I do not have a winner bet on this contest, just expressing my opinion. |
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| Jul-29-10 | | malthrope: <edsauced: Hmmm, if the procedure outlined by malthrope is correct, it favors heavily to the favorite bettors. [...] BTW, I do not have a winner bet on this contest, just expressing my opinion.> <edsauced> - I looked it up and this is what's written in the ChessBookie Game - FAQ »
ChessBookie Game Help Page ...in the sub-heading: <"Tell me more about how this game works."> <8. If there are two or more winning lines in an event (e.g. a tie for first place), all tickets for any winning bet will be paid off. The total "loser pool" (all chessbucks wagered on losing tickets) is split evenly across all winning pools—for example, with a three-way tie the loser pool (after juice) would be split into thirds. Then those smaller pools are distributed to the winners normally. When this happens, the odds payed will be substantially worse than the final posted odds.> It's further explained (assuming there is nothing more current or barring any significant changes thereafter) here: Chessgames Bookie chessforum ...in the Apr-03-06 posting on page 3 of 190. I was, in fact, just recounting from memory of how it was done in the past... Hope that helps! :) - Mal
PS: <ChessBookie> & <Switch> are both much better than I am when explaining these technical betting issues... After all, I'm just an old Chess Master! ;) |
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Jul-29-10
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: <edsauced: IMO the fairest way would be to divide the payout money (the sum of all losing bets * 0.95) in 3 parts, and proceed to pay with each part each player bets (plus the initial bet).> That's pretty much exactly how it's done. |
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Jul-29-10
 | | WannaBe: Okay, to rephrase what my good friend from Nor. Calif. just posted... You lose, bookie wins, next 'customer' please... you are holding up the line! |
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Jul-29-10
 | | Chessgames Bookie: < That's pretty much exactly how it's done.> Yes it is. This way the longshots still remain longshots. The tickets have been paid. We have just inserted a bet for the upcoming Chess Classic Mainz: Rapid Winner and also a fun proposition bet on the outcome of the Chess Classic Mainz: Anand Simul. |
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Jul-29-10
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: <Bookie: This way the longshots still remain longshots.> Well, not necessarily.
For instance, Pivdenny Bank Chess Cup (2008) featured two heavy favorites in Gelfand and Ponomariov. With nearly all the money on one of the two, I bet on outsiders Tregubov and Drozdovskij at odds of somewhere around 30:1. As it happened, T and D actually ended up =1st; unfortunately, both Gelfand and Pono also finished shared 1st, and I only got my hands on the <tiny> remaining fraction that was the loser pool, barely winning any chessbucks at all. :) |
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Jul-29-10
 | | Sneaky: Biel: WINNER says that Nguyen Ngoc Truong Son pays odds of 64.5 but when I got paid it worked out to about 15.7. I guess that's not a bug, it's just the way the game works, it shows the odds as they were when they closed. The actual payoff differs from what you see on the screen. |
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| Jul-29-10 | | malthrope: <WannaBe: Okay, to rephrase what my good friend from Nor. Calif. just posted...
You lose, bookie wins, next 'customer' please... you are holding up the line!> Hahaha! Good one <WannaBe> as the <ChessBookie> never pulls on his punches. ;) ♙♙♙♙♖♘♗♕♔♗♘♖♙♙♙♙
<Chessgames Bookie: < That's pretty much exactly how it's done.> Yes it is. This way the longshots still remain longshots. The tickets have been paid.> Thanks for taking care of all that so quickly <ChessBookie> :) Now I remember the multiple <winners tied> episodes better (having just received my paltry winnings on the Biel winner bets). It was when I got that sick feeling deep in my stomach previously that reminded me! ~lol~ Anyhoo, guessing you're passing on the 'IV Torneo Internacional A.D. San Juan - Pamplona (July 24th-Aug 1st)' bets. It's just as well as it will give you a chance for a short respite before the 'Mainz Classic' kicks in! ;) They are already counting down the days before it begins in their many Twitter postings. :) Although the '5th FIDE Women Grand Prix' in Mongolia starts up shortly and also the 'Politiken Cup' in Copenhagen as well - both are Chess events of interest. Then just a bit later another NH Chess Tournament - 'Rising Stars vs Experience' in Amsterdam begins once again... Featuring that highly prized ticket going straight to Amber! Do not pass GO, do not collect $200. :P Follow-up below... ;)
♙♙♙♙♖♘♗♕♔♗♘♖♙♙♙♙
Thanks <Switch> :)) BTW: <SwitchingQuylthulg: <Bookie: <This way the longshots still remain longshots.>>Well, not necessarily.
For instance, Pivdenny Bank Chess Cup (2008) featured two heavy favorites in Gelfand and Ponomariov. With nearly all the money on one of the two [...]> Read his full post... :)
Yeah, remember that one well <Switch> it was the only time that I was actually quite pleased with my investment in a multiple winners bet. I'd bet heavy on GM Ruslan Ponomariov (my bet was in the multiple 'K' range if memory serves correctly) to WIN the tourney and it paid off handsomely! :D Best Always, - Mal |
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Jul-29-10
 | | Chessgames Bookie: Sneaky is right, the Biel: WINNER page shows the odds as they were when the betting closed, not the payoffs people actually received with the three winners. That's not a bug; it's an undocumented feature. I know a lot of people wonder about how multiple winner payoffs work, and I've gone over it before, but I don't mind running through it once again. <1> First note that the main page says "FINAL HANDLE = 21,711" so that's our starting point. That's the grand total of all tickets wagered on the event. If you add up all the money in the "pool" column you'll arrive at that same figure. <2> The second step is to figure out how much "loser money" we have to distribute to the winners. So we subtract from the handle the pools on the three winners, 4591, 3127, 320, and we're left with 13,673. Then I take my modest 5% juice which is 683.65 (let's just call that a nice even 684) leaving 12,989 to be divided among the winners. <3> Three players won, so we split that 12,989 into three even piles. A small problem arises: 12,989 isn't evenly divisible by three. It wouldn't be fair if one prize pool was bigger than another, so I magnanimously help out our situation by pocketing two chessbucks from the pool. Now you're left with 12,987 which divides neatly into three piles of 4,329 each. Now my job is to distribute three piles of 4,329 to the Lagrave bettors, the Caruana bettors, and the Ngoc Truong bettors. <4> Remember, a winning ticket always gets paid (initial wager) + (profit). A winning ticket cannot ever possibly lose money, because it gets back the initial wager. Therefore the money bet on the players gets added back to each player's prize pool, that's why we subtracted it in the second step. <4a> Let's start with Ngoc for fun. We take the 320 wagered on Ngoc and add 4,329 to that to get a grand total of 4,649. That sum gets distributed to the Ngoc bettors proportional to their ticket size. If that pool was all one person with a single 320 chessbuck ticket, they would get back 4,649. My calculator tells me that 4,649/320 = 14.52, so that should be the decimal odds of those tickets. (Sneaky said 15.7 but I believe he is mistaken.) <4b> Now let's look at Vachier-Lagrave. His pool was 4,591, so when we add that to the pile of 4,329 we get 8,920 to be divided among the many winners. 8,920/4,591 = 1.94, so those bettors almost double their money but not quite. It's a far cry from the 7:2 odds that they were once hoping for, but hey, it beats losing. <4c> I'll leave the math behind Caruana's odds as a homework exercise. Expect a pop-quiz sometime next week. |
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Jul-29-10
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: <Chessgames Bookie: Then I take my modest 5% juice which is 683.65 (let's just call that a nice even 684) leaving 12,989 to be divided among the winners.> Just the other day your juice was always rounded downwards. ;-) <Bookie: Ironically my own juice is rounded down; i.e. NOT in my favor. Virtually all other roundoff computations work in my favor, but that one does not.> |
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Jul-29-10
 | | Annie K.: It's summer... higher liquid intake is needed. ;) |
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| Jul-29-10 | | edsauced: Nitpicking, I do not understand why to round before the final payoff. The decimals could be kept for internal computations and only be rounded in the last step. I have noticed that decimal odds are sometimes a tiny bit higher than it should be, mostly on longshots. For example, I see a 2542.50 odds in Dortmund r1 pick3, my spreadsheet says 2542.25. I guess it is due to rounding after taking the 5% cut. |
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| Jul-29-10 | | bluejay: Just a question.
Why aren't the loser pools distributed to the three winning pools in the same ratio that a winning pool is to the total of winning pools?
I made my wagers based in part on the odds at the time of the wager.
Just for interest's sake I would be interested in what the tickets would pay under this method, or am i missing some key componement. |
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Jul-29-10
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: <Why aren't the loser pools distributed to the three winning pools in the same ratio that a winning pool is to the total of winning pools?> For the exact reason <edsauced> mentioned: to keep longshots as longshots. MVL was 7:2 to win while Nguyen was 64:1; it makes no sense to pay both off at 8:5, which would happen in your scenario. |
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| Jul-29-10 | | wordfunph: sorry guys off-topic..
Happy Birthday to our good friend and Bookie Grandmaster <Winter>!!! more chessbucks and blessings to you.. |
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Jul-30-10
 | | Chessgames Bookie: For personal reasons, I will be taking a few days off. This means I won't be able to tend to bets for the first few rounds of the FIDE Women Grand Prix--my apologies. However, round-by-round betting will start up in a day or two, so keep some chessbucks on hand! See you all soon, thanks. |
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| Jul-31-10 | | malthrope: <Chessgames Bookie: For personal reasons, I will be taking a few days off. This means I won't be able to tend to bets for the first few rounds of the FIDE Women Grand Prix--my apologies.> Sound good to me <ChessBookie> :) Like I was telling you (Jul-29-10 post): <Anyhoo, guessing you're passing on the 'IV Torneo Internacional A.D. San Juan - Pamplona (July 24th-Aug 1st)' bets. It's just as well as it will give you a chance for a short respite before the 'Mainz Classic' kicks in! ;) They are already counting down the days before it begins in their many Twitter postings. :)> The operative word being <respite> it's just what you need right now. :XD One word of solid advice though... Don't get yourself too juiced up! Whoops, let my rephrase that last...
Don't take the 'juice' money with you just yet as we would rather see you hide it in a safe place! =) <However, round-by-round betting will start up in a day or two, so keep some chessbucks on hand! See you all soon, thanks.> Oh goodie! Save our c-bucks, so we can freely lose our c-bucks... Makes perfect sense to me. o_O Which reminds me of an old saying...
<"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!"> ~lol~
One last...
<(4c) I'll leave the math behind Caruana's odds as a homework exercise. Expect a pop-quiz sometime next week.> A pop-quiz... Now there's a solid bet! Wonder who's gonna win that one? You post the odds and we'll place the bets! <*wink*> We'll see ya when you get back... And, we'll all be ready to burn up some hot c-bucks upon your return! :^) That is if we can collectively still remember how one actually makes a bet?! :P My Best, - Mal
PS: If all else fails -- "tweet-tweet!" :) |
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| Jul-31-10 | | Open Defence: I will happily safe guard the money while you are gone! |
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Aug-01-10
 | | WannaBe: For personal reasons?! Are the feds hot on your tail? |
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| Aug-01-10 | | malthrope: <WannaBe: For personal reasons?! Are the feds hot on your tail?> Hahaha! ;) I've been waiting very patiently for someone to respond to <Open Defence> and her magnanimous offer of playing the safe house! <"I will happily safe guard the money while you are gone!"> ~lol~ Since I played the 'straight man' to set Deffi up and it was not yet my turn to move. :P Anyhoo, while I'm here I'm proud to announce that you made my <~Betting/Congrats Quote of the Month~> (located in my Profile) with this fine entry... ______________________________________
July-29-10 <WannaBe: Okay, to rephrase what my good friend from Nor. Calif. just posted... "You lose, bookie wins, next 'customer' please... you are holding up the line!"> ______________________________________
Priceless! :^)
All the Best, - Mal |
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| Aug-06-10 | | Winter: Result:
Viswanathan Anand wins the traditional chess simul with +34 =4 -2. |
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| Aug-06-10 | | Winter: http://www.chesstigers.de/ccm10/sim... |
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| Aug-07-10 | | wordfunph: <Winter: Result:
Viswanathan Anand wins the traditional chess simul with +34 =4 -2.>i lost $200 by Vishy's two defeats arghh! |
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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 190 OF 501 ·
Later Kibitzing> |