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May-09-15
 | | Chessgames Bookie: I don't think  0 days are all that uncommon. I tested them with a simulated gambler using an approach similar to <Penguincw>'s; it turned out that on any given day, Simu-Penguin had a 1 in 370 chance of hitting exactly zero. Every leg, a 0 day is almost guaranteed to happen to somebody. (Of course, since not everybody bets the same way, it's impossible to give exact numbers; some players will have better chances of hitting zero than Simu-Penguin, and some - those who bet big - will have much lower chances.) |
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May-09-15
 | | Penguincw: < I don't think 0 days are all that uncommon. > Well, this is the first time I remember having a 0 day, so it's special to me. :) < I tested them with a simulated gambler using an approach similar to <Penguincw>'s; it turned out that on any given day, Simu-Penguin had a 1 in 370 chance of hitting exactly zero. > 1 in 370, huh? How about chances of hitting in back-to-back days? 1 in 136,900? It's not going to happen (at least for now), but if Khalifman-Safarli was decisive, Idani-Pantsulaia was drawn and Hou Yifan won, I would be at 0 once again. :| (I had just 100 on the day) |
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May-09-15
| | Chessgames Bookie: <Penguincw: 1 in 370, huh? How about chances of hitting in back-to-back days? 1 in 136,900?> For Simu-Penguin (or at least that version of Simu-Penguin), that would be pretty close. In real life, the chances of hitting twice back-to-back would be somewhat better, though still tiny. For Simu-Penguin, how much you bet one day is completely independent from how much you bet the day before; for real people, it's not (low totals correlate with uninteresting tournaments or a lack of markets, and thus with low totals the day before and day after). And the less you bet, the better chances you have of hitting the magic 0 (as long as you don't bet exclusively on longshots). Thus, even if real Penguin has the same 1/370 <average> chance of hitting zero on any one day as Simu-Penguin, he has better chances than Simu-Penguin of hitting in two consecutive rounds. |
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May-09-15
 | | chessgames.com: Announcement: Payday is scheduled for Tuesday, May 19. All players will receive a 1000 chessbuck bonus on that day. |
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| May-09-15 | | MarkFinan: Nooooooooo!!! Overtaken by <wallytherhino>! Of all people. We need a fresh bookie, lol. <<(1) Chnebelgrind 14,673
(2) centralfiles 4,723
<(3) wallytherhino 4,159
(4) MarkFinan 4,103> |
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May-09-15
| | Penguincw: < In real life, the chances of hitting twice back-to-back would be somewhat better, though still tiny. > Alright. :)
< chessgames.com: Announcement: Payday is scheduled for Tuesday, May 19. All players will receive a 1000 chessbuck bonus on that day. > Yes!
< (3) wallytherhino 4,159 > What, where did he come from? The last known update (http://web.archive.org/web/20150427...), <wallytherhino> was at 175 cbs, and today, sinks the entire leaderboard (positions 3-12) down a spot. :| |
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| May-09-15 | | MarkFinan: Wallytherhino is a long term player who usually ends up -25000 at the bottom, bless him. I've dwelled with wally before, lol. |
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| May-09-15 | | wallytherhino: <MarkFinan>
I decide to take risks. Sometimes they pay off, many times they do not. I have four top 10 appearances, and 1 win included in those top appearances. |
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| May-11-15 | | WinKing: A 'field' bet! Awesome 'Book' been waiting for something on this order. |
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| May-14-15 | | WinKing: Message from <chessgames>. All invited!!! <chessgames.com: <kinda late now> Never too late! Caruana vs L Dominguez, 2015, open to everybody.> Live Broadcast Page |
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May-16-15
| | Penguincw: What kind of sorcery is this? Everytime I expect a round to have some decisive games: all draws. Everytime I expect there to be all draws: some/many decisive games. If I don't bet at all: likely missed a chance to profit 100s. >:( |
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| May-19-15 | | MarkFinan: WallytheRhino.. Then I do apologise. You're obviously a better betor (!?) than me, I meant no offence. And I'm seriously thinking of borrowing 2500 from the bookie and use my own funds too, and just put 1000 on each game to be drawn. Even if there's one win I'd still make a lot. Just my luck that there will be all decisive though! |
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May-19-15
| | Chessgames Bookie: 💰 IT'S PAY DAY!!! 💰
Everybody should now have received their free 1,000 chessbucks. Good luck for Khanty-Mansiysk rd 6: SUPERPICK, and have fun! |
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| May-19-15 | | wallytherhino: [[MarkFinan]]
I did not take offense. I have been getting better at picking and choosing my rounds to bet on. I used to Flood the bets each round. I now do research on the head to head records, current tournament standings, and the difference between their initial rating and their performance rating. I have switched my style from spread out long shots (placing 10 bets each paying of 10+:1 and then hitting two or three). I now stalk down the bets and wait for the right environment. Being able to recognize draw kings has saved me very much. |
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| May-19-15 | | MarkFinan: Wally.. That's basically what I did. I mean I'm familiar with the players now anyway but I still used to bet on long shots. Last leg I finally figured out what I was doing wrong, and one day I'll release details to the ceegee public of my secret formula, lol. It's crazy but it helped me to highest placed loser (LOL) in the leg with the people who started with 10k. Touchofknight.. I know you had about 1000 on the under 4.5 ticket. It nearly didn't pay, but well done anyway. I'm thinking I need to reach about 7500 to place top ten this time. |
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| May-19-15 | | MarkFinan: Btw Wally, Congrats after today's betting. You've already placed top ten, you don't even have to make another wager if you don't want to. |
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May-19-15
| | Penguincw: < Chessgames Bookie: 💰 IT'S PAY DAY!!! 💰 Everybody should now have received their free 1,000 chessbucks. Good luck for Khanty-Mansiysk rd 6: SUPERPICK, and have fun! > Woo hoo, Pay Day!
Regarding the Superpick, I remember there was once something called the Superfecta. Once the odds got up to 3811.00. The winning ticket (which I believe had the lowest pay odds) was 6.52. There were 81 outcomes for that. Here, I see there are 51 outcomes (could be 243), with odds ranging from 5.47 to 1923.00, but this one has 5 games instead of 4. Chessgames Bookie chessforum |
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May-19-15
 | | Sneaky: Khanty-Mansiysk rd 6: EN PASSANT CAPTURES LOL, I love it. OK, I'm down. I think there'll be an en passant. It happens all the time, it's not like we're talking about promoting to a bishop. There might even be two, but it takes bravery to go there. The odds are nice, though. |
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| May-20-15 | | MarkFinan: Lost about 500 today. Someone's getting paid out big on the Caruana/Svidler ticket, so after today's demoralising defeat I'm betting my own funds plus the 3000 from the loanshark on the next round, I want to be first. Second is just first placed loser. |
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May-20-15
| | Sneaky: OK, so I lost my en passant bet, but ...
<Khanty-Mansiysk rd 6: Svidler-Giri : Svidler [cash in ticket] 100 YOU WIN! COLLECT 466> Didn't see that one coming, didja? If I had more guts I would have played the "Svidler Wheel" on the superpick. |
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May-21-15
| | Penguincw: Hehe, milestone bet:
Khanty-Mansiysk rd 7: Jakovenko-Grischuk : Draw [cash in ticket] 25 YOU WIN! COLLECT 31 1:4 1.27 31 May-21-15 This is the 750th winning ticket for me since I started keeping track on Dec/31/2014 (143rd winning ticket this leg). |
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| May-22-15 | | MarkFinan: And I thought 5000 would have put me easily top ten at the end of the leg, but that looks very unlikely now. Those pesky 1k bonus boys are worse than the terrible ten granders! Not really, lol. Just moaning because I'm losing money at an alarming rate but... <Karjakin [info20LIVE BET16:117.29345May-27-15 <T-
otal wagered on live bets: 3014 chessbucks>> And tomorrow night when the majority of the other wagers have been placed, I'll be putting the other 1500 I have in funds,plus 2000 I plan on borrowing from the ceegee bookie. My secret formula has been compromised so plan B it is. But in the words of that great philosopher Han Solo ... I have a bad feeling about this. 😂 |
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| May-22-15 | | WinKing: <Which pieces will be more active in round 9 - queens or kings?> A curious wager. I was wondering not sure which would be the better bet, kings or queens. So I did a count on the previous 8 rounds. Here is what I came up with. Round 1
king moves - 55 : queen moves - 39
*****
Round 2
king moves - 67 : queen moves - 58
*****
Round 3
queen moves - 54 : king moves - 45
*****
Round 4
queen moves - 51 : king moves - 29
*****
Round 5
king moves - 71 : queen moves - 53
*****
Round 6
queen moves - 91 : king moves - 89
*****
Round 7
queen moves - 62 : king moves - 23
*****
Round 8
king moves - 108 : queen moves - 69
*****
After 8 rounds the score of who made more moves by round kings or queens is tied 4-4. When I was counting round 6 I checked it three times & came up with three different scores. In each case the queen moves had it though. Not sure if my count is accurate for that round. |
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| May-22-15 | | WinKing: Averages:
Avg. # of king moves made in each of the 8 rounds so far = 60.875 Avg. # of queen moves made in each of the 8 rounds so far = 59.625 (*if my counts were correct that is - no guarantees*) |
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May-23-15
| | Chessgames Bookie: <WinKing: When I was counting round 6 I checked it three times & came up with three different scores. In each case the queen moves had it though. Not sure if my count is accurate for that round.> The official master count for round 6 shows the queens winning 92-90; the kings scored several inspired fourth-quarter three-pointers, but it wasn't quite enough. |
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