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September 28

10:00am-3:30pm SPICE Cup Open & TX Women’s Ch Rounds 4-5

1:00pm-5:30pm International Round 9

5:30pm-6:30pm Closing ceremony

Monroi SPICE Cup schedule: http://monroi.com/2008-spice-cup-sc...

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So, I was all geared up for an official starting time of 1 PM sharp (CDT). I've been on the Internet for 3 hours prior to that (8 AM my time) monitoring all the bets and also the chit-chat here on this page (no mention here that the games had already started). At 1:05 PM (11:05 AM my time PDT) I was shocked to see the last round games had already started. It appears that they changed the schedule without giving prior notice and started the games 2 hours earlier (not 1 hour as given on the official schedule since it was initially posted before the tourney started).

In all fairness, what you <must do> is to erase all bets made after 12 Noon (the starting time in Lubbock, TX). It's really a darn shame that this has occurred. :( Since, all my bets except for the unique marking system I use to indicate which bets I have chosen to watch over carefully and bet on for which I started betting on this final sequence 45 minutes prior to (what I thought) was the official game time. They were all made without prior knowledge to the fact the schedule was changed, no notification of any kind was given, and the games had already started at 12 Noon. It's just a tragedy that this Summer betting leg has to end like this... :((

[End of Post #1 - Post #2 now follows]

Moving right along... :)

<SwitchingQuylthulg: <(1) SwitchingQuylthulg 19,717 (2) malthrope 18,003> With 1 round to go... How did this happen?? ;-)>

Well, considering that both you and <Sneaky> were the only two in possible contention to beat me having previously qualified in the Spring Betting Leg (I've been monitoring both of you for the last month <grin>). Having wrote this prior to the Rd #8 results being posted (they were however known to me as to my personal results) back in response to <4tmac>...

<4tmac: <Congratulations on such a strong showing on this leg & best of luck on the next!>

<Mal: <Well, I made a swell mess of things in my Rd #9 betting. :( Took a wrong turn at the Spice Cup <Fork in the Road> and ran into a <Cement Truck>! ~ROFL~ Since, I already qualified last leg for the Big c-bucks in the Winter Leg Championship let my guard slip. Hence, managed to lose a tidy little bundle. :(

Besides, it will make things interesting. Although, I should have just <Sat on my Hands> instead of <Pulling the Trigger>. Guess it depends on whom might have still been trying to beat me (and how they did in Rd #8), as opposed to just improving their respective positions in the 'Top Ten' qualifying spots.

Anyway, I still stand well and have three horses left (Kritz, Onischuk & Pentala) that might all tie for 1st place if 'Akobian vs Kritz' draw and either (or both) Onischuk wins against Stefansson and if Pentala manages to win against Kaidanov. We shall see what happens as it's tough winning the Big c-bucks with such predictable results that will or won't take place in the last round. ;)>>>

The entire post can be viewed here: malthrope chessforum

So, in retrospect I knew that both you and <Sneaky> could make a final stand and all the rest in the hunt for the 'Top Ten' qualifying spots would be more concerned with qualification into the Winter Championship Leg. Should have played it more conservatively and just played to protect my lead. Hence, in Rd #8 I took a BIG gamble to vastly improve my total amount of c-bucks but without any action (decisive games) in the 'Pick-3' I lost my gamble. :( No regrets really, since we have all previously qualified. :))

<SQ: <Congratulations I still think <Mal> will take it, though; I have big bucks tied in probably losing "winner" tickets...>>

Well, it will be tough now. Of course there is always a chance (based on the info 'winning tickets vs losing tickets' that you supplied), but losing an additional $5K at the very last moment in Rd #8 makes my winning opportunities slim at best.

Congrats once again <SwitchingQuylthulg> if you end up winning this Summer leg (you would become the first double winner back-to-back!). :^) All the Best, - Mal

Previously posted on this page... :)

<SwitchingQuylthulg><Aside from the final winner bets, there could be weekly betting (closing, say, five days before settlement) about who will be leading next Tuesday. The winner of the mini league could be awarded a free 2-day premium CG.com membership. :)>

Interesting problem, actually. Let us say that CB offers the bet: "Who will win the leg?" Now let us say that X and Y are tied at the end.

Suppose now that player X has bet that player Y will win the leg (and assume that Y has not made a bet on anyone to win the leg). Since it's a tie, presumably we would like to say that X wins some money. But if A wins ANY money, then Y is no longer the (joint) winner of the leg, and hence X does not get the money. But if X does not get the money, then Y is the (joint) winner of the leg.

The problem, formally stated, is this: X is the clear winner of the leg if and only if X is not the clear winner of the leg.

Furthermore: Y is the joint winner of the leg if and only if Y is not the joint winner of the leg.

So, interestingly, you get TWO semantic paradoxes. Frankly, I find it fascinating. Of course, I could make the description more rigorous (say that X actually has 10 chessbucks less than Y, but that he wins 20 if Y is the winner of the leg).

What's more -- the problem really is analogous to that of the semantic paradoxes (the Liar, Grelling's paradox, etc). So there are also undecidable bets. For example, suppose that X has 49,900 chessbucks and Y has 50,000 chessbucks, but X stands to win 1001 chessbucks if X wins. Well, now X wins 1001 if X wins the leg, and X gets nothing if X loses the leg -- but X only wins if X has won the 1001 chessbucks.

If you let both X and Y have bets on the winner of the leg, then you get even more problems. For instance, let's say that X has 49,000 chessbucks and Y has 50,000 chessbucks. Now, suppose that X stands to win 1001 chessbucks if Y wins the leg, and Y stands to win 2 chessbucks if X wins the leg.

Interestingly, the solution to the problem would have to be something along the lines of Tarski or Kripke's definition of the truth predicate. So we need to introduce levels. There are a variety of ways to do this.

But, due to the technical apparatus involved, I do think that this is probably not a good betting offer. Somewhat less problematic would be to allow bets on who leads after each round (of non-meta-betting). It's really only problematic when you set the condition "winner of the leg".

Incidentally, I'm kicking myself for being so conservative with my final round betting. Depending on what the payout is for that four-way tie (I picked two of the winners), I've only gone up a few hundred chessbucks. Anyone in the top 13 has a reasonable chance of catching me, and there's certainly the possibility that a few people ranked lower went all out and won big. Methinks that with only 10,500 I'm going to get knocked out of the top-10. Crappy.

I just read something disturbing. Only the first 10 get the $10,000! I was playing very conservatively this last week because I thought it was the first 12!

Yes <danielpi> a paradox indeed! :) This bet would only make sense if it was held say 30 days into the Winter Championship Leg (when all the others have accumulated some c-bucks by then). We can assume all the qualifiers starting with $10,000 c-bucks still have something left to bet with. ;)

You could feature the Spring, Summer and Fall betting leg winners (3) and the 27 qualifiers from the three previous legs with the infamous one <"Other"> bet to cover a lone runner outside of this group (31 individual bets in total). Like in the case of <TD> moving up the ranks having only started with $1,000 c-bucks and placing 3rd in the last Winter Leg Championship. That is an interesting betting idea that <ChessBookie> might consider as feasible! :^) - Mal

PS: <technical draw: Hey, I just read something interesting. Do I get 10,000cb's in the winter leg for finishing 3rd in last years Championship leg?>

I wouldn't think so <TD>... Besides, we all start fresh with each new betting season encompassing Spring, Summer, Fall and the final Winter Leg Championship each year. There is no carry over and decidedly there is no paper trail! Just bragging rights and the - ChessBookie Hall of Fame - with all the main stats to ponder and droll over. ~lol~ <grin>

<Even if you don't qualify, it's still possible to become World Champion, with a string of incredible luck to overcome your handicap. Furthermore, the top 10 places of the Winter leg earn an automatic qualification into the following year's Championship.>

Frankly though, there were a lot of people in the 4000-5000 range who had nothing to lose, and picking Onischuk was a relatively safe way to go all in. I regret that I didn't put more than I did on him. My guess is we will see a few newcomers to the top-10. There are decent odds I get knocked out.