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Jun-19-15
 | | WannaBe: Norway Chess rd 5: WALRUS SPECIAL
A lot of games have been classified as "English" opening, but whether it started out 1. c4 or was 1. d4 then by transposition, I am not sure. But I am gonna bet "YES"!! |
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| Jun-20-15 | | MarkFinan: <<SETTLEMENT DATE: Jun-19-15
PROJECTED PAYOUT: 748 (61:1)
Norway Chess rd 4: PICK THREE
White-White-Draw
YOU WIN! COLLECT 748 12c$
[cash in ticket]>>
After a disaster in rounds 2 & 3 I'm glad to see this ticket paying out. I can see it being some kinda record if say... 6000 doesn't give you a top ten finish. People are coming out of nowhere, Wally T. R has fallen and become a victim of his own success, Sneaky's sneaking back in sneakily, I just can't fail this time, it's my best leg thus far. |
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Jun-20-15
 | | Penguincw: < MarkFinan: ... After a disaster in rounds 2 & 3 I'm glad to see this ticket paying out. I can see it being some kinda record if say... 6000 doesn't give you a top ten finish. People are coming out of nowhere, Wally T. R has fallen and become a victim of his own success, Sneaky's sneaking back in sneakily, I just can't fail this time, it's my best leg thus far. > (not sure if this is helping, but I'll say it anyway) Anyway, if you're curious, here are the amounts that 10th place finished in various legs, with the number of participants (if known) in brackets. Spring 2006 - 6590 (725)
Summer 2006 - 7651 (434)
Fall 2006 - 4876 (659)
Spring 2007 - 4360 (512)
Summer 2007 - 5132 (609)
Fall 2007 - 5021 (617)
Spring 2008 - 9038 (428)
Summer 2008 - 8117 (555)
Fall 2008 - 5222 (535)
Spring 2009 - 5549 (475)
Summer 2009 - 5649 (385)
Fall 2009 - 6298 (497)
Spring 2010 - 5905 (402)
Summer 2010 - 6354 (346)
Fall 2010 - 6666 (363)
Spring 2011 - 4000 (?)
Summer 2011 - ? (?)
Fall 2011 - 5190 (?)
2012 and 2013 unknown
Summer 2014 (Pay Day, Top 12) - 6052/5578/5247 (333)
Fall 2014 (Pay Day, Top 12) - 6330/6125 (245)
Spring 2015 <CURRENT> (Pay Day) - 4436 (280) Using the first 15 values, you'll find the average is 6162 cbs in a leg with 503 participants (or 12.250 fold). In a leg with 280 participants, 3430 cbs is average. <However>, since there's Pay Day, that number is basically doubled, so 6860 cbs is probably where no. 10 will finish up (assuming no new players enter the game, and the amount of loans taken out remain normal). Of course, that number is dependant on how evenly the money is distributed and how many loans people take out. These are just numbers, I recommend you just finish as high as you can (without collapsing of course). You probably shouldn't take advice from me though, someone who has <never> qualified before (and having their 2nd best leg ever, at +768). :) Good luck <Mark>! I enjoy your bookie posts, and really want you to qualify for the Championship. :) |
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| Jun-21-15 | | centralfiles: c4 was played in two of the games which means I crash today the question is how badly... In other news for once caruana seems to have been caught unprepared in the opening, though it seems to be a pretty standard panov-botvinnik reversed. |
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| Jun-21-15 | | wallytherhino: Probably just a nit pick here, but:
Norawy Chess rd 5: Nakamura-Anand: OVER/UNDER
Norway is misspelled. This is the only wager I see the misspelling. |
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Jun-21-15
 | | Annie K.: <Norway is misspelled> Yeah - looking at the rankings, I'm thinking the correct spelling should actually be 'No-way'... ;s |
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Jun-21-15
| | Penguincw: Yes, I actually have a decent round for once, gaining 193 cbs. :) However, I am kind of upset that the one time I <don't> bet Aronian to beat Caruana with white, he actually wins. |
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| Jun-21-15 | | centralfiles: Hammer's inexplicable blunder in totally drawn position just cost me 4300cbs :(:( |
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Jun-21-15
| | WannaBe: If you are interested in the Norway Chess: TOPALOV SPECIAL bet, here are some info: 4 rounds remain Topalov have 2 whites, round 7 (Caruana) and round 9 (Anand). The two blacks are round 6 (Grischuk) and round 8 (Giri). Or if you prefer to look at it this way:
R6: Grischuk-Topa
R7: Topa-Caruana
R8: Giri-Topa
R9: Topa-Anand |
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| Jun-22-15 | | MarkFinan: Thanks for the info Pengerz, I appreciate the bookie leg breakdown. I'm going to <try> and reach 7000 and I'll then retire myself from this leg and let these amateurs have a go, lol. <Good luck <Mark>! I enjoy your bookie posts, and really want you to qualify for the Championship. :)> Thank you for the kind words <Pengerz>, much appreciated. |
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| Jun-22-15 | | MarkFinan: Having heavy money on at the chessbookie's as chess games are being played reminds me of watching BBC 1 and waiting for the football results at 4:45 on a Saturday afternoon. Agonising and painful, I feel like I just lost at home to a 91st minute goal today, lol. |
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Jun-22-15
| | WannaBe: Had 2 winning tix today, Topa + Anand, but only 100cb each. Shoulda/coulda/woulda bet more. I am such a chicken l'ttle. No guts, no glory. |
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| Jun-22-15 | | MarkFinan: Caruana just went and drew with the booby prize! With white! I'm out of it, I had large amounts on that guy. It's karma for saying he was rubbish last year, this is a bad day. |
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| Jun-22-15 | | centralfiles: I need Nak to draw then i might have a windfall profits today... |
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| Jun-22-15 | | MarkFinan: And I need Carlsen to win for some hope, lol. |
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| Jun-22-15 | | centralfiles: After my experience with hammer yesterday I'm not counting chickens until I clearly see that 1/2 sign <Mark> You should take hope that my notorious luck will help you... |
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Jun-22-15
 | | FSR: Carlsen, <please> don't give Naka that pawn back. |
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| Jun-22-15 | | centralfiles: <FSR>
He didnt!
Profits :):):) |
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Jun-22-15
| | FSR: <centralfiles> Yes! Ka-ching! |
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Jun-22-15
| | Penguincw: Ugh, so painful to have cbs placed on certain outcomes, only for it to lose in the end. :( I lost 480 on the round, but if Anand-MVL was drawn, I would've gained 864 cbs and move to 3825 cbs. :( However, if I think I can get 15:1 odds for DDD, then a triple drawn must really be unlikely... One thing that really matters to me is how much cbs I end up with. To most people, there's only 3 places you can be: 1st, 2nd-10th, and other. To me, I actually care if I finish 11th or last. At +481 currently, I'm not sure if I should call it quits or continue... |
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Jun-22-15
 | | Sneaky: <Norway Chess: CARLSEN TO WIN? : NO [cash in ticket] 500 YOU WIN! COLLECT 1425> Thanks for the early payout Mister Bookie Sir! :-D |
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Jun-22-15
| | WannaBe: Norway Chess rd 7: Topalov-Caruana: OVER/UNDER Over, baby!! |
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| Jun-23-15 | | MarkFinan: <<SETTLEMENT DATE: Jun-22-15
PROJECTED PAYOUT: 348 (22:1)
Norway Chess rd 6: PICK THREE
Draw-Draw-White
YOU WIN! COLLECT 348 15c$
[cash in ticket]>>
I should really apologise for calling Hammer 'The booby prize' because he's obviously a great chess player, I just think he's out of his league yet keeps on getting ½'s. However.. He keeps losing me money and you can't mess with a mans cheddar, so I'll now refer to him as.. "The shed tool". Anyways. I had this bet that saved me from a fate worse than 11th. 400 on ANY player in this tournament is insanity, so I've only my parents to blame for not schooling me in gambling from a young age. <<Mark> You should take hope that my notorious luck will help you... > Well you're more experienced in the gambling lifestyle <Fiddy> but any thing is worth a shot at this crucial stage of the chessbookie game, I just hope your <good luck> pays off and takes me to the "toppermost of the popermost" - John God Lennon. <Pengerz: At +481 currently, I'm not sure if I should call it quits or continue...> Continue!! Soldier on. Brave the storm. Carry on regardless. I didn't realise you were down to 481 Pengerz but you know the CDCCBH (chessgames dot com chessbookie betting history) more than anybody, if anyone can reach the much coveted top ten it's you, Pengerz. C'mon man? Together we'll weather the stormZ currently brewing from the current <top tenors> who have no right to be there. Wally. T. R has been harassed into the cellar, these new young pups need to show some respect to us regular <top tenors>. |
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| Jun-23-15 | | MarkFinan: Pengerz, you're still 30th with 3000 cb's. I remember another leg when switch (I think it was Switch) told me that people have been minus cb's in the last week of betting yet still qualified for the Championship leg. I have faith in you Pengerz, I expect the both of us to qualify and show these young naive clueless pups just how it's done. Good luck fellow brave soldier. |
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Jun-23-15
| | Penguincw: Wow, 5:1 odds for Nakamura playing 1.c4. Why didn't I go for that? After all, everyone seems to be playing 1.c4 now to avoid the Berlin and Grunfeld. (oh wait, I did, except that due to my persistent careless, I clicked on 1.c4) Alright, <Mark>, I'll fight on. "Wars are not won on evacuations." I had a few successful legs before (didn't qualify, but came close), and I'm trying to remember what I did right there. Time to go to the archives again... |
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