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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 98 OF 501 ·
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| Oct-03-07 | | Touch of Knight: <Sneaky> You are absolutely right. Let b,c,d… denote the probabilities that the king will be on the respective files. Then b<c<d. For symmetry reasons, of course, b=g, c=f, and d=e. I thought I should keep this a secret until the betting closes. For 10 chessbucks I can give you the exact numbers :) |
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| Oct-03-07 | | Ragh: Some combinatorics calculations for the Fischer Random wagers.
In all the calculations below, it is assumed that the R, K are fixed first in positions (as shown) and then the total for other 6 pieces' positions are calculated. The procedure for each permutation calculation is in the order of [♖onLS*LSB*DSB + ♖onDS*LSB*DSB]* (Possibilities for QNN placing on the rest of three squares) <King on b-file>:
only possibility RK______
Total = [3*3]* 4 * (3!/2) = 108 positions
<King on c-file>:
First possibility R_K_____
[3*3*2 + 2*4*1] * (3!/2) = 78
Second possibility _RK_____
[3*2*3 + 2*3*2] * (3!/2) = 90
Total for c-file = 78+90 = 168 positions
<King on d-file>:
First possibility R__K____
[2*3*2 + 2*3*2] * (3!/2) = 72
Second possibility _R_K____
[2*1*4 + 2*2*3] * (3!/2) = 60
Third possibility __RK____ (same count as first possibility) [2*3*2 + 2*3*2] * (3!/2) = 72
Total for d-file = 72+60+72 = 204 positions
As <Touch of Knight> mentioned, <e,f,g> files mirror <d,c,b> files respectively. So, in summary, the possibilities of King on various files are: b-file = 108
c-file = 168
d-file = 204
e-file = 204
f-file = 168
g-file = 108
TOTAL = 960 positions.
Note: The above material is Copyrighted by me. To be used for chessbookie purposes only. ;) Now, where are my 10 chessbucks for having put my brain through this permutation theory torture? |
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| Oct-03-07 | | malthrope: Hey gang! :-)
The Florida Cash-3 (Oct. 3, '07) lottery numbers are: "0-5-2" (all to be confirmed by the Master of Bets - 'Chess Bookie' of course!). Anyway, running position #(0)52 through the FRG we get... _______________________________________________
click for larger viewFRG position #52
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So...
King on 'e1' wins!
Queen on 'd1' wins!
Bishop's on 'C + H' files win!
Hope we won some c-bucks! (I won a 'little' bit)... <Ragh: Some combinatorics calculations for the Fischer Random wagers. [...] Now, where are my 10 chessbucks for having put my brain through this permutation theory torture?> Masterful analysis <Ragh> ! :-) I'd loan you the 10 c-bucks, without interests of course, if I could! ;-) <Annie K.: <Mal <Kudos to <Annie K.> for just betting on Kramnik and Svidler to win!
Well, I placed lots of other bets, I just mentioned the two most spectacular successes. :) >>> Yep! Just like the rest of us <Annie K.> total suckers for the Chess Bookie betting game antics! ~lol~ :-))) - Mal PS: Don't forget the fantastic 'European Club Championship 2007' is now up for betting <some incredibly strong chess teams are playing>... Check it out! ;-) |
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Oct-03-07
 | | Annie K.: ...and here I used to think I'd never take up gambling! ;) <mal: <PS: Don't forget the fantastic 'European Club Championship 2007' is now up for betting <some incredibly strong chess teams are playing>... Check it out! ;-)>> Yeah, W-O-W there are some big names there! :) |
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| Oct-05-07 | | Tactic101: Me? I'm glad I haven't taken gambling up as a career. I'm doing so well, I mean, badly, but I don't care at the moment. I'll just resign myself to my fate. :) |
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Oct-05-07
| | Annie K.: <Tactic101> Just have fun, and be glad you don't live in Las Vegas (err, that is, if you don't live in Las Vegas!) ;) Anyway, in previous legs I've gone from -1500 to +1500 overnight more than once (but then usually back again too...), so while there's a Loanshark, there's hope! :) Well, now that the bets are closed (I won't tell what I'm betting on while they are still open! ;p), I placed some bets on the European Club Cup (I know I would probably do better to just stay put - yeah, like I could see an interesting bet and not jump in, right!), so I'll come out a few hundreds ahead if Baden-Baden or Tomsk-400 win, a few hundred behind if Ural wins, and I'll be filthy rich if Linex Magic wins - not looking like much chance of that at time of bet closing, but they still have a good lineup of fighters. :) |
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Oct-05-07
 | | Chessgames Bookie: Wagering is open on the top 3 boards in the 5th round of the European Club Cup Tournament.
ChessBookie Game |
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Oct-05-07
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: 5th round? Isn't it 4th round tomorrow? |
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| Oct-05-07 | | malthrope: Yes <SwitchingQuylthulg> - Round #4 is due up tomorrow! :-) Seems that 'Chess Bookie' may be drinking from the 'juice' jar again... ~lol~ ;-) Just a Handi-Cappers update... I'm sure <WannaBe> will approve of this! We may get these pairings on Board #1 in these 3 key team match-ups (colors unknown): ______________________________________
Tomsk-400 vs. Ural Sverdlovskaya
Board #1: Morozevich-Radjabov
Keystone vs. Alkaloid
Board #1: Ponomariov-Mamedyarov
Bosna Sarajevo vs. OSC Baden-Baden
Board #1: Ivanchuk-Anand
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All club teams at full strength (Moro plays and Vishy shows up). For further updated info see my last post in - European Club Cup (2007) - and read the posts above and below mine... Also, just finished a full report about all this and posted it on ChessNinja in 'European Club Cup 2007' >> // http://www.chessninja.com/cgi-bin/u... So, keep all of this in mind when slamming down and waging your deadly serious c-buck bets... Can't say for sure that it will happen just this way but the probability is rising that it might! ;-) - Mal PS: <Annie K. ... and I'll be filthy rich if Linex Magic wins> Ahh, and just who is 'Linex Magic' again? I must have missed the Euro Club Cup memo! ~lol~ 'Good Luck' on that one <Annie K.>! :-) |
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| Oct-06-07 | | malthrope: Round #4 pairings are up! (official)... // http://euroclub2007.tsf.org.tr/comp... ___________________________________
Tomsk vs. Ural -
Morozevich-Radjabov
Jakovenko-Shirov
Karjakin-Grischuk
Tkachiev-Akopian
Bologan-Malakhov
Smirnov-Dreev
Bosna Sarajevo vs. Baden-Baden -
Ivanchuk-Svidler
Almasi-Carlsen
Movsesian-Bacrot
Sokolov, Ivan-Nisipeanu
Short-Harikrishna
Predojevic-Nelsen
Keystone vs. Alkaloid -
Ponomariov-Mamedyarov
Onischuk-Georgiev
Areshchenko-Volkov
Efimenko-Kozul
Baklan-Nedev
Vysochin-Colovic
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The great Moro made it and Vishy's participation is still an unknown (lost in transit?). ;-) Place your c-buck bets accordingly and 'Good Luck!' :-) |
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Oct-06-07
| | Annie K.: Didn't Vishy say he was going on a vacation with his wife to celebrate his WCC victory? He may not be in such a hurry to get back to work... ;) Oh, Linex is just a bunch of unknowns, with weird names such as "Kamsky", "Adams", "Rublevsky", "Sargissian" and "Cheparinov". Never heard of'em! ;) |
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| Oct-06-07 | | malthrope: <Annie K.: Didn't Vishy say he was going on a vacation with his wife to celebrate his WCC victory? [...]> Could very well be <Annie K.> When I first heard that Vishy was gonna play team matches in Turkey (after just winning the WCC tourney in Mexico) thought it was totally insane! <eek> Take a vacation Vishy and do something nice for Aruna! :-) We've been searching high and low for further news reports to verify it one way or the other... Now having missed the 'Big match-up' with the Bosna Sarajevo team and a date with Chuky on the chessboard - I'd bet big its truly gotta be vacation time! ~lol~ <Oh, Linex is just a bunch of unknowns, with weird names such as "Kamsky", "Adams", "Rublevsky", "Sargissian" and "Cheparinov". Never heard of'em! ;)> HaHaHa! - me neither... ;-)
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Let's see back to the CG.com betting game we have...
'Tomsk vs. Ural' // Draw (3-3) - 6 of them! - Fantastic chess games a struggle worthy of champions! 'Bosna Sarajevo vs. Baden-Baden' // Draw (3-3) with 4 decisive games! 'Keystone vs. Alkaloid' // Get out your Alkaloid's we're fully stocking the medicine chest with them! A well deserved victory for the Alkaloid team in a squeaker 3.5-2.5 (with 3 decisive games). Hope you all bet on this one (I did and wish I'd bet much more!). ;-) Of course, these are all 'unofficial results' cause they ain't official until the Chess Bookie says so! :-))) - Mal |
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Oct-06-07
| | Annie K.: <Mal> Good for you on the Alkaloid bet! :) I didn't bet on this round because I like to watch a tourney for a few rounds to get a feel of the dynamics of it first, and the first rounds here didn't tell me how the stronger teams would do against each other, just that they can beat the bejesus out of the weaker teams, which isn't surprising anyway. ;) A bit surprised though, looking at the standings after round 4 of the official site - Rank Team Gam. + = - MP Pts.
1 Alkaloid 4 4 0 0 8 18½
2 Ural Sverdlovskaya 4 3 1 0 7 19½
I haven't been following multiple team tournaments before, so while I guess it makes sense that the point of team play is that team match results outweigh individual points, I still find it a bit counter-intuitive that the highest ranked team is not the one with the most points. I just didn't consider that possibility, though I can see how that happens now... guess I'll get used to it. :) |
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| Oct-06-07 | | malthrope: <Annie K. - I haven't been following multiple team tournaments before, so while I guess it makes sense that the point of team play is that team match results outweigh individual points, I still find it a bit counter-intuitive that the highest ranked team is not the one with the most points.> Yep! Welcome to the wacky world of team competition where 'Match Points' are King. The good news is that 'Tomsk' and 'Ural' teams only have to play each other once. Now we have an interesting pairing match-up in Round #5. However, not the best from Chess Bookie's perspective to take a gamble now and setup wagers for this round (some one-sided affairs I'm afraid). Besides, that's what makes betting interesting as sometimes the underdogs win against ALL odds. This round is more like sorting out all the 'Match Point' standings then it's back to 'Battle Royal' in the final two rounds where everything will be at stake... ;-) Round #5 the top pairings are:
_____________________________________________________ Alkaloid (MP 8) vs. Linex Magic (MP 7)
Ural Sverdlovskaya (MP 7) vs. Ashdod City Club (MP 7)
Novoborsky SK (MP 6) vs. Tomsk-400 (MP 7)
OSC Baden-Baden (MP 6) vs. Cannes Echecs (MP 6)
CC Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (MP 6) vs. Bosna Sarajevo (MP 6) Vesnianka Gran (MP 6) vs. Keystone (MP 6) Note: MP = 'Match Points' of course!
_____________________________________________________ <Annie K. <Mal - Good for you on the Alkaloid bet! :)>> That worked out great! :) So, now with my Alkaloid winnings (had bets on all 3 matches but favored Ural to win over Tomsk which made me a little less money since I had to make use of full counter measures to safe guard my large 'Ural to Win' bet there) this now puts me back in the deadly betting striking range. All this after my brief lapse of insanity in the GMT move 10...? bet. Hopefully, it was only temporary. ~lol~ :) - Mal |
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| Oct-07-07 | | technical draw: I accidentally won and now I'm still last but that darn tartarsause is only 30 bucks behind (ahead) of me. I should stop betting, there's no reason to press my bad luck. |
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Oct-07-07
| | Annie K.: <TD> stop betting?! Are you all right, speak to us!!! <Mal> ...and just as we decide Anand must be on vacation, he shows up. LOL! Hey, Linex are giving Alkaloid a proper schooling today! =) Would you happen to have a bet on them too, by any chance? ;) |
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| Oct-07-07 | | technical draw: <Annie K> I meant not bet anymore this session and just let my losses carry me to the end. But That darn tartarsauce is too close so I'll have to pick real losers and hope I don't accidentally win again. |
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Oct-07-07
| | Chessgames Bookie: Wagering is open on the top 5 matches of round 6 of the European Club Cup.
ChessBookie Game |
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| Oct-07-07 | | DCP23: <Chessgames Bookie> Are you sure you have the correct pairings? They are different here:
http://chess-results.com/tnr7697.as... |
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Oct-07-07
| | Chessgames Bookie: <DCP23> Thanks for the heads up. All wagers on the two incorrect pairings will be refunded. |
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| Oct-08-07 | | malthrope: <Annie K. <Mal> ...and just as we decide Anand must be on vacation, he shows up. LOL!> Sheesh! Looks like that news report from 'The Telegraph' was right! ;-) The team board line-ups are now posted... >> // http://euroclub2007.tsf.org.tr/comp... The 3 Chess Bookie betting match-ups:
______________________________________________________- Keystone (white on odd boards) vs. Bosna Sarajevo (white on even boards) - 1) Ponomariov-Ivanchuk
2) Onischuk-Almasi
3) Areshchenko-Movsesian
4) Miroshnichenko-Sokolov, Ivan
5) Efimenko-Short
6) Baklan-Predojevic
Alkaloid (white on odd boards) vs. Economist (white on even boards) - 1) Mamedyarov-Alekseev
2) Georgiev-Tomashevsky
3) Volkov-Tiviakov
4) Kozul-Galkin
5) Stanojoski-Roiz
6) Colovic-Iljushin
Ashdod City Club (white on odd boards) vs. Baden-Baden (white on even boards) - 1) Eljanov-Anand
2) Smirin-Svidler
3) Sutovsky-Carlsen
4) Avrukh-Bacrot
5) Moiseenko-Nisipeanu
6) Kogan-Harikrishna
______________________________________________________- Too bad about the pairing snafu... :-( Good that <DCP23> caught it in time! As, it sure would have been fun betting on 'Ural Sverdlovskaya' vs. 'Linex Magic'! Not to mention last year's champ's - 'Tomsk-400' vs. 'Clichy Echecs 92'. Now it's a fast and furious race not only to collect the Match Points, but also the game points too! :-) Looks like it will go right down to the wire (Round #7 decides it all!). Just think of the "FUN" we will all have betting! ~lol~ ;-) - Mal PS: Hang in there <TD> looks like <Tartalacreme> is gonna make it interesting for you - cellar wise! :-) |
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| Oct-08-07 | | malthrope: Missed this... <Annie K. - Hey, Linex are giving Alkaloid a proper schooling today! =) Would you happen to have a bet on them too, by any chance? ;)> My 3rd side bet was on 'Baded-Baden!' ~ROFL~ Since Vishy's participation was constantly in serious doubt. Nah, I passed on 'Linex Magic' went with the two teams that I felt had the best chance overall... Favored one team slightly over the other (make money on both but my primary bet pays off nicely). As always, you do the math! ~lol~ ;-) - Mal |
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Oct-08-07
| | Annie K.: <TD> oh, ok! Worst of luck! :) <Mal> well, everything is still open, but Linex just might actually win this... Go Linex! ;) |
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| Oct-08-07 | | malthrope: <Mal - well, everything is still open, but Linex just might actually win this... Go Linex! ;)> Yep they sure could! :-) Which would mean $16,160 c-bucks running loose for all those lucky CG.com betters that picked "Linex Magic" to take it all! <hint> If they win the match they win the tournament with 13 unmatchable match points! :-))) Which also spells 'doom' for all us poor Ural, Tomsk and Baden-Baden (and others) pre-tourney betters! ~lol~ However, the 'Fat Lady' may yet say otherwise and if the Economist play the best match of their tourney (they were crushed only once in round #2 playing against the Tomsk team playing without Moro!) and can hold them to a draw or even win (thus gaining the coveted 12 match points for winning and with a draw they only gain 1 MP for drawing whereas Linix would reach 12 match points if the match is drawn). Then it solely depends on how Ural does against Bosna Sarajevo in their individual match-up (both can reach 12 match points by winning). As, Ural is the present board leader in total number of game points collected with 27 (Bosna with 24, Linix with 24½, and the Economist with 26). We shall just have to wait and see how the cards are played out in this high stakes game... ;-) Back in my day I probably would have paired Linex vs. Ural (Linex would have white on board #1) and Bosna vs. Economist (Bosna would have white on board #1) under the theory that Linex must play the top team in the next pairing group (instead of 1 plays 3 and 2 plays 4 and following the rule that no team can have more than 3 blacks in a row). However, I'm sure the computer program doing the pairings is just following its pre-set list of protocols. The 'Good News' is this is the final round and there is still lots of c-bucks $money$ to be made by betting! <big grin> 'Good Luck' to all in this crucial and deciding last round of the European Club Cup Championships! ;-) - Mal |
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Oct-09-07
| | Annie K.: Well, me filthy rich! ;) I'm due 4000 from a 100 bet on Linex... wonder where the profits from the other 304 are going - one or more large bets, or just many small ones? :) |
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