This is almost a question of "Is he bluffing or not?" You give several clues that the answer is, "No." therefore we're looking at a painful but smart laydown with a very nice hand. One clue is you say "the type of game is tight," but the real clue here is in the betting pattern.

Let's call the players A (me, early position), B (middle guy who ends up going all-in), and C (on the end).

I bet 70, representing a strong hand. B calls, which could indicate that he's on a draw, but of course you never know when somebody has a monster. C reraises a respectable amount, 200. Now any fool can see that C must have a hand, because it's hard to believe that both A and B would bail out of this pot for a mere 130 more. (And nobody bluffs when they fully expect to be called!!)

But then you say that it comes back to A (me) and I make a hefty re-reraise (frankly I question if this is good play, but for the sake of the problem let's go along with it). Now, the player that I previously put on a draw goes all-in. In effect, was executing a checkraise. He only called my bet intially instead of raising on the spot, because he wanted to lure C into the pot as well.

Here's my opinion and what actually goes through my mind while I play:

What hands could C be holding? It must be a hand good enough to get into the pot with after my 70 preflop raise, and it must be a hand at least as good as mine. We also know he must have flopped something pretty darn good to raise my bet with a caller in the middle. (It's a bad idea to bluff when two people have shown interest in the pot... very likely that one of them will call you.) However we knew that he folded at the end, so he didn't hold the nuts. All of these are likely possibilities:

AA, 99, KQ, KJ, KT, and he might have my hand, AK. Also, if he's the kind of guy who plays K9 or Q9 then he might have those hands as well.

Missing from this list are KK and QQ. Here's why I feel this way: when you flop a high set, it's very hard to let it go, and we know he folded. Furthermore, these are hands that deserve reraises before the flop, to thin out the opposition (or just take it down right there) and we know that didn't happen.

The three hands I think player C is most likely to have: AA (my #1 guess), KQ, and AK.

But this puzzle is really about player B. Here's a guy who calls my bet, and when it comes back around to him raised, he goes all in. He's either stone cold bluffing (like an idiot, against two people who have shown serious interest in the hand) or he's holding a monster. There's no other explanation.

Hands that would fit the picture for player B:

KK, QQ, and JT. To a lessor degree, 99.

However, like I mentioned earlier, it's somewhat hard to believe that he wouldn't push back preflop with KK or QQ, although some people do play that way. But if he did flop a set, it would be perfectly reasonable to push all in right then and there to prevent people from trying to cheaply suck out a straight on him.

In the end, my best read on player B is, unlikely as it seems, the nuts: JT.

There probably isn't a single clear-cut correct answer to this question, but Lederer's answer I find to be very good, and is how I play (or try to play) in similar situations.>

I just asked my flatmate this question and he said he would fold. But me, I would <definitely> raise him. The main reason being that he could of called preflop with a medium pair like 10-10 or J-J. And if he held one of those two hands, with a flop of Q-9-5, theres a good chance that he is putting out a probe bet to see if his J-J or 10-10 is any good.

Also I usually find that when someone calls preflop with a medium pair, and the flop has one overcard, the usual course of action people take, is to bet about half to three quarters of the pot. Which is exactly what the guy did in the question.

Seeing as there is now 3500 in the pot (2300 + 1200), I would reraise about 3000 more on top of his 1200 bet. If I raised any lower like 2000 then he might not fold and might catch a good card on the turn. But if I raised too much more, like 5000, then I would probably be committed to the pot if he reraises allin. Because at that stage I would only have about 3.5-4k left in chips and the pot would be about 20k, so I would probably have to call his allin.

The simplest explanation in my opinion is that he was dealt either AK or KK, and in both cases he found a 4th street card that filled him with mixed emotions. While it made his hand better, he fears the 3rd heart. So he tries to force you to get out of the flush or straight draw, if you're on one. Based on that, the answer is "fold."

First of all, folding AQ with a Q high flop: this is absurd. If this flop isn't good enough for your AQ then what on earth are you hoping for... trips? Two pair? Well heck you could play any two cards then, you don't need to wait for AQ!!

So what's wrong with calling? He might have a made hand, like a set, or an overpair. Suppose you call and he fires off a large pot-sized bet on the turn. You have an excellent hand but you still don't know where you stand. At this point you are almost forced to commit your entire stack.

So instead, you raise. This is an informational raise. If he really has a made hand, expect an all-in or at least a very comfortable reraise. Lederer suggests a MINRAISE... after all, this is an informational raise, why pay too much for your information? There is plenty of time to put more money in the pot later.

Not that it matters, but in the real hand, it was said that the kid did respond with an all-in, Lederer folded, and then the kid revealed a pair of nines in the hole.

Your answer was a much larger raise: your intention being simple, that you want to see some "folding equity" by reraising so much he might just lay down. You fear the suck-out and I don't blame you. This is a tradeoff, in Lederer's case it would have cost you a little extra but in some cases it could eliminate a suck-out, which would save you a fortune.

This is supposed to be a real easy one.

5/10 no-limit cash game. Everybody has a good pile of chips in front of them (2-3 thousand dollars minimum). You're in the big blind and are dealt

A♦ 10♦

One player in early position limps in. Everybody folds except the small blind who coughs up his other 5. You decide to raise it up to 40. To your surprise, the early limper now raises the bet another 30, making it 70 to go. He's a fairly solid player, unlikely to make such a move without a good hand. The small blind bails out, you call the extra 30.

The flop comes

J♦ 9♦ 8♣

Your opponent bets 5 green chips (125) and you call. There is now 400 in the pot.

The turn comes a brick:

2♥

Your opponent bets 300 into a pot already containing 400.

You don't have a hand yet, but there is lots of potential with a lucky river card. Question -- do you give up your hand, or call?

OK, this was supposed to be a no-brainer but it looks like we need to go back to poker-math 101.

First of all, before you even start counting outs, try to put him on a likely hand. My big clue was < the early limper now raises the bet another 30, making it 70 to go.> Somebody limps in early then raises later. But they don't make a big raise, just a small "come on in and join me" raise. They WANT action for their cards. You immediately have to think a monster hand: either AK or a real big pair. AA is certainly not out of the question. I also said he's a <good solid player> which is to say, he doesn't very often raise it up with a pair of 8's or some questionable hand. True, professionals make moves like that sometimes, but that's what you'd call "erratic play" not "solid play."

Now let's count outs.

Are Aces outs? Frankly you don't really know. Perhaps he has KK and fears an ace, or maybe he has AA and an ace would make him giggle. The way I think about it is that the aces are "maybe-outs."

Are queens outs? Absolutely. Even if he held QQ your straight would beat his set. Four queens are four outs.

Are sevens outs? Sure enough! Four of them, now we're up to 8.

Then there's all the diamonds. 13 diamonds in a deck, but two of them are in your hand and two are on the table, so that leaves 9 diamonds. But wait--you wouldn't want to count the 7 of diamonds or the Q of diamonds twice! So there are 7 more diamond outs.

That's 15 outs, folks, even assuming that aces are no good here.

Your raw odds of hitting one of those 15 cards on the river are about 2:1 against you. I figure this out because of the 46 unseen cards 31 of them lose for you, and 15 of them win for you. However, what do you have to bet, and what's the gain?

<Your opponent bets 300 into a pot already containing 400.>

In other words, you have to stake 300 to gain 700. Even if you put no stock in "implied odds" whatsoever, you are getting better than 2:1 on this proposition.

Consider if you called, now there's 1100 in the pot. A seven shows up making your straight. You bet 200. Do you honestly think anybody would fold their pocket aces just because you make a meek little bet at the end? Very few players would. In fact, I think the correct procedure against most players would be to check it over and let him do the betting for you. This is what's called "implied odds", the fact that you win AT LEAST what's in the pot, probably a little more, and possibly a huge amount more.

Somebody said that he's betting like he has the nut straight. That would be to say, he holds Q-10. I disagree. I don't buy into this theory, since he did that tricky check-raise preflop. Q-10 is not a premium hand, good players would very rarely checkraise with such holdings.

<Puzzle B>
You hold Kd-Kh
You are all-in pre-flop against an opponent holding the As-Ks. What is your win percentage? (No calculator!)

You didn't tell me what the blinds were but I am assuming $100/$200 (which would make my $600 raise fairly normal.)

Anyhow, that's a very tough call, having middle pair with an overcard. It's made easier in that I haven't invested a ton into the hand. In a tournament setting I would probably assume my opponent has the queen. I'd pitch the hand unless I had a specific reason to think that he or she was bluffing.

<Puzzle B>

OK, he's got 1 overcard and he's suited, I have the Kings. I have none of his suit. I would normally say that I have a 70% chance to win this but since he's suited I'll move it down a notch to 65.5%. That's just a gut feeling for the math.

Anyhow, that's a very tough call, having middle pair with an overcard. It's made easier in that I haven't invested a ton into the hand. In a tournament setting I would probably assume my opponent has the queen. I'd pitch the hand unless I had a specific reason to think that he or she was bluffing.>

Oops sorry. I forgot to say what the Blinds were at (you were close... they are at 150-300). Anyway, that situation I believe, warrants a call. It is a somewhat difficult decision, but a call is probably the best play here. If the guy does hava a Queen then you are drawing quite slim (In fact you may only have two outs, as if he does have the Queen then theres a decent enough chance that it is AQ).

But, if he is bluffing, then this is the perfect time to slow-play since you are short-stacked and you need to double up.

If he has a Ten, then you are in really great shape and he only has three outs to win. If he checks it to you on the turn, you should seriously consider pushing all-in no matter what the turn card was. This gives you quite a good chance to bluff him out if a King hits, or maybe make him lay down a Queen with a crap kicker, and if you still have the best hand it is time to protect it.

<OK, he's got 1 overcard and he's suited, I have the Kings. I have none of his suit. I would normally say that I have a 70% chance to win this but since he's suited I'll move it down a notch to 65.5%. That's just a gut feeling for the math.

Also, not to knock your puzzle, but I'd like to add that you don't need to know all of these odds to play good poker. As long as you recognize this as a very good situation for yourself, that's pretty much all you need to know. Whether its 65, 70, 75, who really cares--the point is it's better than a coin flip but by no means a sure thing.>