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Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Aug-01-14

This is the forum where you can post your predictions for the Final Standings of big tournaments.

Next tournament Start June 3

Here the format how to post your predicitons

1. Carlsen
1. Aronian
1. Kramnik
1. Topalov
1. Caruana
6. Grischuk
7. Karjakin
8. Svidler
9. Giri
10. Agdestein

Norway Tournament Predicitons Winners;


Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the finals standings of a tournament. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants. This is invented by YouRang

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers. Don't miss his YouRang chessforum game results prediction contest during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>








KKKQQRsuenteus po 147




KQWhere is my mind


KGolden Executive
KSoUnwiseTheKnight B4
KLike a GM

K Gold
Q Silver
R Bronze

>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections. Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 5540 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Jul-31-14 lostemperor chessforum
lostemperor: Meanwhile another strong tournament also has ended a week ago: Biel. 1. Vachier-Lagrave 6 2. Wojtaszek 5.5 3. Hou YiFan 5 3. Harikrishna 5 3. Giri 5 6. Motylev 3.5 and the Olympiad in Tromsų is about to start!
   Jul-21-14 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
lostemperor: Thanks chessmoron, OhioChessFan and those who helped out for another fun and fierce contest!
   Jul-21-14 YouRang chessforum (replies)
lostemperor: Thanks YouRang and congrats to fellow medal winners. I am very glad to reach top HOF-spot among many fine predictors I come to respect a lot!
   Jun-13-14 Norway Chess Tournament (2014) (replies)
lostemperor: Winners Final Standings Prediction game: KWannaBe Qisemeria Qmoronovich
   May-06-14 Anish Giri (replies)
lostemperor: Anish Giri is the last player to complete the Norway super tournament ! He has been playing in the top tournaments so often, we tend to forget he is still a youth player (<20 years). The best in the world for long.
   Apr-26-14 Mamedyarov vs Carlsen, 2014 (replies)
lostemperor: Meanwhile I missed the game to see that Carlsen won!?
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.


Kibitzer's Corner
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Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: Congratulations to <WannaBe>, and thanks to <lostemperor>! I'm surprised I managed to medal after not being in the top three in any intermediate standings :)
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: Thank you <lostemperor> for hosting the contest!!!
Jun-13-14  Penguincw: Thanks for hosting <lostemperor>. I had fun... for most of the tournament. :)

Also, congratz to the winners, especially <WannaBe>. By my unofficial count, he becomes the 7th user to win a triple crown in this contest (after <positionalgenius>, <Where is my mind>, <chessmoron>, <SloVice>, <cromat> and myself). Unfortunately for everyone listed, only one gold medal was won. Nevertheless, <WannaBe> has won 6 gold medals.

Hope to see you around Dortmund.

Premium Chessgames Member
  LucB: I won a rook! I won a rook! Yeah!!

That was fun.. not a bad result for a 1-minute think-through as to who-to-place-where..

Thanks for hosting this <lostemperor>, and congratulations to the Wascally Wabbit <WannaBe>!

Jun-13-14  The Last Straw: Ugh!

I was at the top, but couldn't help it when I slowly sunk into that hole....

Jun-13-14  The Last Straw: Thanks for holding the contest anyway, and congratulations to all the winners!
Jun-13-14  MountainMatt: Thanks <lostemporer>, that was fun! Especially at the end when I climbed out of the bottom of the pile. :) Looking forward to the next one!
Premium Chessgames Member
  moronovich: Thanks for hosting <Lostemperor> and a big congratulations on the Dutch outstanding performance tonight and herebey some of the favourites in the group just outside Brazil and Argentina IMO.

See you around.

Premium Chessgames Member
  YouRang: Thanks <lostemperor>. Always fun, and I'm happy to come away with a bronze. This was a tough tournament to predict.

Congrats to <WannaBe> wabbit for finishing with top honors, and for such a good bluff in round 1:

<Jun-03-14 WannaBe: See how good I am, one round, and dead last. Beat That!>

Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: 'Hall of Famers List' all Gold Medal totals - (**All 3 contests**) (Updated June 13, 2014) - See my forum.
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Well, I was in first for one round. Thanks Yoda. Congrats to the Wascally Wabbit.
Premium Chessgames Member
  wordfunph: <lostemperor> thanks for hosting.

...and cheers to all the winners!

Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Now the chess tournament is over we have to do with a boring soccer championships :p
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: It seems I did <YouRang> short. He also came second in the Pair Betting Ranker ex aequo <moronovich>. Somehow I missed that since it is so unusual someone finished with the same amount at the Pair Betting Ranker. And their predicions are not even identical!

So a well deserved Silver for <YouRang>Q still! :)

Premium Chessgames Member
  YouRang: Ah, good catch <lostemperor>. I didn't even think to check the scores, lol.

So, I sort of medaled for the cycle in Norway: A gold and bronze in my contest and a silver in yours. :-)

Jun-21-14  isemeria: Hi <lostemperor>! Thanks for hosting.

I was traveling last week, so I could check the results only now. And I see that I had some success this time.

My better than expected result is partly because I tried to follow the advice from "Thinking, fast and slow" by Daniel Kahneman. (A fantastic book, BTW). That is, don't try to outsmart base rate information too much. In chess context, stick to ratings unless there's some evidence of player's recent form for example.

Jul-09-14  Penguincw: I know it's early, but I've been having computer problems, and fear that I may not be able to enter my predictions for Dortmund in time. Plus, looking at my last 4 tournament results, I should win a medal this time around:

Tal 2013: Bronze <Medal>

Tata 2014: Last in 2 categories, 2nd last in other <No Medal>

Candidates 2014: Triple crown (awarded only one gold medal) <Medal>

Norway 2014: 2nd last in 2 categories, last in other <No Medal>

Dortmund 2014: <Medal?>

If for whatever reason you can't/won't host this contest, just delete this post.

1. Kramnik
2. Ponomariov
3. Leko
4. Adams
4. Meier
6. Baramidze
6. Caruana
8. Naiditsch

Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Dortmund Moves Prediction contest hosted by <chessmoron> coming soon. Click on Elvis for details.
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I was not planned to hold the Dortmund prediction contest due to the limited amount of players.
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: But we will keep an eye on the outcome!
Jul-20-14  Penguincw: My prediction:

< 1. Kramnik
2. Ponomariov
3. Leko
4. Adams
4. Meier
6. Baramidze
6. Caruana
8. Naiditsch >

Actual results:

< 1. Caruana
2. Leko
2. Meier
4. Naiditsch
4. Adams
6. Ponomariov
7. Kramnik
8. Baramidze >

Damn. I'm pretty far off. :| So thanks for <not> hosting. :)

By the way, any ideas of what the next tournament will be? Bilbao maybe?

Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Penguincw, I could not find much information on Bilbao. Eg. how many players participate. Otherwise the Tal memorial if held in October is an interesting oltournament. If someone can keep an eye on information about these tournaments when available, would be welcome.
Jul-21-14  Penguincw: According to, this is a possible website:

So far, I believe 6 players are participating, with Anand, Ponomariov, Aronian and Vallejo confirmed (but I guess it's best to wait; a lot can happen in 2 months).

Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: With the chess master final lasting a week from 14 to 20 September, it is probably an 8 players tournament or only 6 players double round robin :)
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Meanwhile another strong tournament also has ended a week ago: Biel.

1. Vachier-Lagrave 6
2. Wojtaszek 5.5
3. Hou YiFan 5
3. Harikrishna 5
3. Giri 5
6. Motylev 3.5

and the Olympiad in Tromsų is about to start!

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