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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-16

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<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' GAME FORUM>

Predict the final standings of tournaments!

Next prediction event TataSteel Chess 2016 http://www.tatasteelchess.com/grand...

Here a format how to post your predictions

Here my take on Tata Steel Chess 2016 (for what it's worth :0):

1. Carlsen
1. Caruana
3. Mamedyarov
4. Giri
5. Eljanov
5. Tomashevsky
5. So
5. Ding
9. Adams
10. Hou
11. Navara
12. Wei
13. Karjakin
13. Van Wely


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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


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<HALL <OF> FAME>

♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖WannaBe

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♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang
♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♖♖Penguincw

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♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♕♖cromat

~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔♕Robin01
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

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♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


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>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member
   Current net-worth: 959 chessbucks
[what is this?]

   lostemperor has kibitzed 6105 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Jan-31-16 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Of course I in all this awe I forgot to mention the Silver and Bronze of <Golden Executive>♕♖!! Awwww
 
   Jan-31-16 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Thanks <Golden Executive> for another pleasureble contest! Congratulations to all winners! Worth mentioning <SwitchingQuylthulg> who also won Gold in my forum and is in top persue for first in the <chessbookie> game:)
 
   Jan-30-16 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Round 12: Karjakin - Giri 1/2 25 Hou - Adams 1/2 45 So - Carlsen 1/2 40 Ding - Eljanov 1/2 41 Navara - Tomashevsky 1/2 43 Caruana - Van Wely 1-0 45 Wei - Mamedyarov 1/2 45 Round 13: Mamedyarov - Karjakin 1/2 25 Van Wely - Wei 1/2 50 Tomashevsky - Caruana 1/2
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

TATASTEEL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 191 OF 191 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners

JACKPOT!!

$22.00,Adams-equal-Hou, WannaBe

$22.00,Eljanov-equal-Giri, moronovich

$22.00,Eljanov-equal-So, SwitchingQuylthulg

$22.00,Wei-above-Karjakin, Keyser Soze

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Semi-JACKPOT!

$11.00,Ding-above-Giri, moronovich + YouRang

$11.00,Eljanov-above-Karjakin, Karposian + wordfunph

$11.00,Navara-above-Adams, OhioChessFan + WannaBe

$11.00,Navara-equal-Tomashevsky, Golden Executive + Karposian

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Only two missed chances

$0.00,Adams-equal-VanWely, (0 winners)
$0.00,Mamedyarov-above-Karjakin, (0 winners)

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  rogge: Close, but no cigar. Thanks to the host, and congrats to the winners!
Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  SwitchingQuylthulg: Thanks to <lostemperor> for hosting, and congratulations to <moronovich> and the other medalists!
Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: Thanks <lostemperor> for hosting. Congrats to <moronovich>, <SwitchingQuylthulg> and the other medalists, and also to <Karposian> for, idk.

Hope to see you soon (which would probably be the Candidates tournament).

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Congratulations to <moronovich> winning the Absolute and the Betting Ranker (third in the Squared Ranker)!!

<SwitchingQuylthulg> unique winner of the Square Ranker (second Absolute and third in the Pair Bettings)!

Top scorer <WannaBe> wins the Silver at the betting Ranker!

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: The standings in Tata Steel was not a bit according my predictions but it was much to my liking since it was close to my wish list! I made some wrong gambles since I think I cannot win otherwise <;)
Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Next tournament will be the Candidate Tournament March 10 http://candidates2014.fide.com/ now open for your bets!

1. Topalov
2. Anand
3. Nakamura
4. Caruana
5. Giri
6. Aronian
7. Karjakin
8. Svidler

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  whiteshark: <lostemperor> Thanks for hosting this big fat 13 rounds event, and congratulations to all winners!!
Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Predictions statistics

AvgRnk,Player,LoRank,HiRank
1.20,Carlsen,1.0,3.0
3.32,Giri,2.0,7.0
3.98,Caruana,1.0,8.5
4.64,Karjakin,1.0,6.5
5.66,So,1.0,14.0
6.18,Ding,2.5,12.5
8.09,Eljanov,2.0,14.0
8.30,Mamedyarov,3.0,14.0
8.57,Adams,2.0,12.0
9.23,Tomashevsky,4.0,13.5
9.82,Wei,3.0,13.0
10.73,Navara,4.0,13.5
12.43,Hou,8.0,14.0
12.86,VanWely,9.0,14.0

Note that the differences of the winning predictions of <moronovich> (only 19 points difference from total 98 points possible absolute) and <SwitchingQuylthulg> (only 54 points difference from a 910 points possible squared) with the actual standings were small.

Here the total differences of predictions with the actual standings (absolute) which are relatively not big! Adams and Karjakin clearly underperforming and Ding, Eljanov and Wei outperforming the expectations:

Deviations per player:
Deviation,Player
98,Adams
96,Karjakin
81,Ding
79,Eljanov
70,Wei
52,So
43,Giri
43,Tomashevsky
41,Caruana
37,Mamedyarov
32,Navara
26,Hou
24,VanWely
5,Carlsen

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: Congratulations to the winners, <moronovich> & <Switch>!

See y'all in about 5 weeks for the Candidates.

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Of course I in all this awe I forgot to mention the Silver and Bronze of <Golden Executive>♕♖!! Awwww
Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Thanks to <lostemperor> for running & hosting this prediction contest! Always fun to play here.

Congrats to all of the medal winners in this contest. Special congrats to <Switch> & <moronovich> on picking up gold medals in the Square & Absolute Rankers! Kudos to <moronovich> on winning his first gold ever & gaining access to the HOF! :)

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Golden Executive: It was an exciting contest! Thanks <lostemperor>, congratulations to all the medal winners and welcome <moronovich> to the Hall of Fame.

See you folks for the Candidates Tournament.

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  YouRang: Thanks <lostemperor> for running the contest again. Congrats to the winners.
Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Thanks Yoda.
Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Karposian: Ouch! Only $0.64 away from a medal in the Pair Betting Ranker..why me? WHY ME??

Congrats to the winners, a stellar performance by <moronovich> in particular, winning two golds and gaining 43 bucks in the PBR.

Thanks, <lostemperor>, for once again giving us so much joy with this great contest. See you all at the Candidates!

Oh and by the way, <Penguincw> finished in 20th place out of 22 contestants in all three contests. So, a good tip for anyone who wants to do well in this contest is this:

Copy <Penguincw>'s suggestions, just remember to turn them upside down! You are guaranteed to get a good result.

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: < Copy <Penguincw>'s suggestions, just remember to turn them upside down! You are guaranteed to get a good result. >

Not always. I've won a triple crown in this contest before, but also a <losing> triple crown.

You, aside from that practice event last month, always have had a bad performance. Everyone has their bad tournaments. You, have bad prediction contests.

Jan-31-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  Karposian: <Penguincw: You, aside from that practice event last month, always have had a bad performance.>

Always? Strange thing to say. I just finished this event at 7th, 6th, and 4th. That's not a bad performance.

I'll tell you about a bad performance: finishing 20th, 20th and 20th.

Feb-01-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  moronovich: Thanks for the kudos and to <lostemperor> for running the show ! Congratulations to <Switch> too,and see you all at the Candidates which is not that far away.
Feb-01-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  moronovich: Candidates will be held in Moscov 10th of March to the 30th.

3 rounds of play and then 1 free day.

Feb-01-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  wordfunph: thanks <lostemperor>, congrats to all winners!
Feb-01-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: Just lookin' ahead to the Candidates in March, Moscow is 11 hours ahead of Pacific time zone, 8 hours ahead of Eastern time.

If, the tournament games are to start 1PM Moscow time, it would mean 2AM Pacific, and 5AM Eastern.

Feb-01-16
Premium Chessgames Member
  alfamikewhiskey: Thanks for hosting, great fun :)

(Boo hoo: Last tournament, London CC - win PAIR BETTING RANKER by $ 25 margin - competition not for real / not Hall Of Fame material. Try to repeat feat, instead: Dead last ...)

Looking forward to the next chance!

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