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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-17-18
♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>

Predict the final standings of tournaments!

Next event CANDIDATES' TOURNAMENT March 10:

Format to post your predictions

1. Caruana
1. Mamedyarov
3. Aronian
4. So
5. Kramnik
5. Ding Liren
7. Grischuk
7. Karjakin

Place your bets and
Good Luck!


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♙♙♙

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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


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<HALL <OF> FAME>

WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖

~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~

♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

~~~~

♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

*may be incomplete

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


♙♙

♙♙♙

♙♙

>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 6838 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Jan-29-18 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Next event CANDIDATES' TOURNAMENT March 10 open for your bets: 1. Caruana 2. Mamedyarov 3. Aronian 4. So 5. Kramnik 6. Ding Liren 7. Grischuk 8. Karjakin
 
   Jan-29-18 Tata Steel (2018) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2018 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum: <offramp>♔♕, <paavoh>♔, <Penguincw>♔, <alfamikewhiskey>♕♕, <OhioChessFan>♕♖, <FSR>♕ Next event ...
 
   Jan-29-18 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Thanks <chessmoron> and <OhioChessFan> for another fun competition!
 
   Jan-28-18 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Thanks <Golden Executive> for running this show. Congratulations to the winners! Will be seeing each other in the Candidates tournament in March.
 
   Dec-12-17 London Chess Classic (2017) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Prize winners of London Chess Clasic Final standings Predictions at forum: <whiteshark>♔, <Aurora>♔, <FSR>♖, <Golden Executive>♖ <Penguincw>♖!
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 233 OF 233 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jan-25-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: On the last rest day <OhioChessFan>, <paavoh> <alfamikewhiskey> are on pole positions with three rounds to go!
Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS 2018 FINAL UPDATE

<Round 11
Anand, Viswanathan - Hou, Yifan 1-0
So, Wesley - Jones, Gawain C B 1-0
Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar - Carlsen, Magnus -
Matlakov, Maxim - Svidler, Peter -
Karjakin, Sergey - Kramnik, Vladimir 1-0
Caruana, Fabiano - Giri, Anish -
Adhiban, B. - Wei, Yi -

Round 12
Hou, Yifan - Wei, Yi -
Giri, Anish - Adhiban, B. 1-0
Kramnik, Vladimir - Caruana, Fabiano 1-0
Svidler, Peter - Karjakin, Sergey -
Carlsen, Magnus - Matlakov, Maxim 1-0
Jones, Gawain C B - Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar -
Anand, Viswanathan - So, Wesley -

Round 13
So, Wesley - Hou, Yifan 1-0
Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar - Anand, Viswanathan - Matlakov, Maxim - Jones, Gawain C B -
Karjakin, Sergey - Carlsen, Magnus -
Caruana, Fabiano - Svidler, Peter -
Adhiban, B. - Kramnik, Vladimir 0-1
Wei, Yi - Giri, Anish -

<standings:

1. Carlsen 9
1. Giri
3. Mamedyarov 8.5
3. Kramnik
5. Anand 8
5. So
7. Karjakin 7.5
8. Svidler 6
9. Wei 5.5
10. Jones 5
10. Matlakov
10. Caruana
13. Adhiban 3.5
14. Hou 2.5>
>
>
>

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS
<♔♕♖<THE PREDICTIONS ♖♕♔>>>

ABSOLUTE RANKER FINAL

Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 98

Score,UserID

♔71,offramp
♕70,FSR
♕70,OhioChessFan
~~~~
69,Kapmigs
69,paavoh
68,WinKing
66,alfamikewhiskey
65,Keyser Soze
65,SwitchingQuylthulg
64,cromat
64,moronovich
63,Aurora
63,wordfunph
60,WannaBe
59,lostemperor
58,Golden Executive
57,Count Wedgemore
56,chessmoron
55,rogge
53,tuttifrutty
17,Penguincw

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: SQUARE RANKER FINAL

Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 910

Score,UserID

♔783,paavoh
♕782,alfamikewhiskey
♖781,offramp
~~~~
771,OhioChessFan
768,FSR
768,moronovich
764,Kapmigs
761,WinKing
747,cromat
745,Aurora
740,SwitchingQuylthulg
735,Keyser Soze
725,chessmoron
722,WannaBe
721,Golden Executive
716,Count Wedgemore
709,wordfunph
708,lostemperor
683,rogge
626,tuttifrutty
210,Penguincw

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: PAIR BETTING RANKER FINAL

Earnings,UserID

♔$48.30,Penguincw
♕$15.72,alfamikewhiskey
♖$14.93,OhioChessFan
~~~~
$14.68,offramp
$7.09,paavoh
$5.62,chessmoron
$1.71,cromat
$0.88,rogge
$0.78,WannaBe
$-2.48,moronovich
$-3.22,FSR
$-4.92,Count Wedgemore
$-5.32,Kapmigs
$-7.98,Keyser Soze
$-8.13,WinKing
$-10.86,tuttifrutty
$-11.33,SwitchingQuylthulg
$-12.25,lostemperor
$-12.54,Golden Executive
$-13.71,wordfunph
$-16.95,Aurora

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:

Payoff,Pair result,Winners

JACKPOT!!
$21.00,Giri-above-Caruana, Penguincw

JACKPOT!!
$21.00,Jones-equal-Matlakov, lostemperor

JACKPOT!!
$21.00,Svidler-above-Caruana, Penguincw

JACKPOT!!
$21.00,Wei-above-Caruana, Penguincw

*****

Semi-Jackpot!
$10.50,Anand-above-Caruana, alfamikewhiskey + Penguincw

Semi-Jackpot!
$10.50,Giri-above-Anand, OhioChessFan + Penguincw

Semi-Jackpot!
$10.50,Jones-above-Adhiban, cromat + offramp

Semi-Jackpot!
$10.50,Jones-above-Hou, chessmoron + offramp

Semi-Jackpot!
$10.50,Karjakin-above-Caruana, alfamikewhiskey + Penguincw

Semi-Jackpot!
$10.50,Mamedyarov-above-Caruana, alfamikewhiskey + Count Wedgemore

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Missed chances:

$0.00,Carlsen-equal-Giri, (0 winners)
$0.00,Caruana-equal-Jones, (0 winners)
$0.00,Caruana-equal-Matlakov, (0 winners)
$0.00,Giri-above-So, (0 winners)

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: Thank you <lostemperor> for another contest! Really strange <penguincw> did so bad in 2 categories and won the Betting category by a wide margin. =)
Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  moronovich: Thanks a lot for hosting <lostemperor>!

And congratulations to all winners.

The Candidates next time !?....

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Congratulations to Carlsen and Giri for winning the exciting monster tournament of Tata Steel!

Kudos to our medal winners: <offramp>♔♕, <paavoh>♔, <Penguincw>♔, <alfamikewhiskey>♕♕, <OhioChessFan>♕♖, <FSR>♕!

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Cigar, close, but no.

Running this contest, many thanks for you.

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <Penguincw> reversed predictions held till the end with three JACKPOTS and Semi-jackpots (and this tactic was his second time to get the Gold)!! Maybe something to follow for dare devils among us or those who want to take a bet! <;)
Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: Hehe, the reversed predictions work. Don't know if I'm going to deploy it again next time. I don't always deploy it, so is that implying that it doesn't always work?

Regardless, congrats to <offramp> for winning another gold and congrats to the other medalists.

Thanks to <lostemperor> for doing a great job of hosting. What would be the next contest? The Candidates I'm guessing?

---

< WannaBe: Really strange <penguincw> did so bad in 2 categories and won the Betting category by a wide margin. =) >

Yeah, I noticed that too. I almost regret posting those predictions, but it worked out in the end. I had a feeling I'd be near the cellar in 2 of the ranks, but geez, has a user ever been <that> far back in last place?

A little while ago, <Golden Executive> posted instructions on how to calculate the standings for this contest (WinKing chessforum (kibitz #2522)). I haven't really reviewed it since (and this was almost 3 years ago), but doing some quick math of assuming my "real" score of my would be non-reversed predictions would be the max. score minus by actual score, I would've won Absolute Ranker by 10 points.

(I may calculate it properly some other time, if it results in a change)

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Thanks <lostemperor> for running & hosting a lively event! 36 of the 91 games in this contest were decisive(40%). That's not too bad for a Super Tournament.

Congratulations to all of the medal winners! Kudos to <Penguincw>, <paavoh> & <offramp> on picking up gold in this contest. I'd continue using your 'reversed predictions' <Penguincw>. "If it ain't broke don't fix it" as the saying goes. ;)

Jan-28-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  Count Wedgemore: Thank you to <lostemperor> for organizing this competition. Great fun!
Jan-29-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  offramp: That was bloody close! Many thanks to User: lostemperor for making this difficult game possible.

I think it'll be remembered for <PenguinCW>'s $ Earnings. At one point he had over $100 and was about $80 in the lead. Sauve qui peut!!

Jan-29-18  paavoh: Congratulations to all medalists and participants - this was great fun and a tight race to the end!

Happy to score one medal, be in the running in the Absolute Ranker, and surprisingly, in the positive in Pair Betting!

Thanks <lostemperor> for organizing this contest. See you all next time!

Jan-29-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  wordfunph: congrats to all winners!

<lostemperor>, thank you!

Jan-29-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Next event CANDIDATES' TOURNAMENT March 10 open for your bets:

1. Caruana
2. Mamedyarov
3. Aronian
4. So
5. Kramnik
6. Ding Liren
7. Grischuk
8. Karjakin

Jan-29-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  rogge: I *used* to be quite good at this, he he :) Thanks for hosting, and congrats to all winners.
Jan-29-18  cromat: Congrats to the medal winners and all participants. Thanks <lostemperor> for running the contest
Jan-29-18  alfamikewhiskey: Thank you, <lostemperor>. Very enjoyable contest.
Jan-29-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  Golden Executive: Thanks a lot <lostemperor> for the contest and congratulations to all the winners, particularly to <Penguincw> on his copyrighted 'Reversed Predictions', amazing!

See you guys next time, looking forward to the Candidates Tournament!!

Feb-09-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Pairings for the Candidates 2018:

https://www.fide.com/component/cont...

Feb-23-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: 2018 Candidates,

World Ranking/Name/ELO (Feb 2018)

(2) Mamedyarov$, 2814
(3) Kramnik*, 2800
(4) So%, 2799
(5) Aronian#, 2797
(7) Caruana%, 2784
(11) Ding#, 2769
(12) Grischuk$, 2767
(13) Karjakin^, 2763

*Wild Card nomination by organizers (Agon)
^ Runner-up from 2016 Championshipo Match
# Top 2 finisher in World Cup 2017
$ Top 2 finisher in Grand Prix 2017
% Top 2 players with highest average ELO who played in WC or GP

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