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| May-18-06 | | percyblakeney: Once again my bets were wrong, but at least they were small... Didn't think Topalov would get more than a draw with black against Anand and had a hunch that Bacrot would beat Kamsky. No such luck... |
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May-18-06
 | | Open Defence: <percy> there seems to be a high win % with Black at mTel... is this due to the no draw offer rule ? or just that these players have evolved systems of play with Black that if White tries too hard for an advantage he is punished ? |
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| May-18-06 | | percyblakeney: <Open Defence> I've no idea, there were only three black wins last year, it's already 5 now. Both Topalov and Anand losing twice with white is unusual, they had less than ten losses with white in six whole years before 2006... |
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| May-18-06 | | TIMER: I took a big risk, and would have got right back in the game from the pick three if only Svidler drew. Instead I will be outright last with -3132! I will have to make a great comeback like Kamsky now... |
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May-18-06
| | Open Defence: <percy> must be that more interesting lines of play are being found for Black ... Andras Adorjan would be proud... <chessgames bookie> who modelled for the bookie and loan shark photos... do you need a chessgames side kick (blonde in a fur coat?) hehehehe |
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May-18-06
 | | WannaBe: Lost every bet, all 3 games and opening. =(
Who's the clown doing the handicappers corner anyway?! |
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May-18-06
| | WannaBe: Handicappers Corner for Round 8:
Kamsky-Anand:
Anand has a very slim lead of +12 -11 =17 versus Kamsky. In the earlier game, Kamsky beat Anand with black pieces (Anand vs Kamsky, 2006). When Kamsky has white pieces, he is +6 -2 =11. Svidler-Bacrot
Svidler leads it +3 -0 =7. When Svidler has white pieces, he is +2 -0 =3 Topalov-Ponomariov
Topalov leads it +5 -3 =8, when Topalov has white pieces, he is +4 -1 =3 against Ponomariov. The thing to consider, is Topalov making another miracle second half tournament run?? |
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May-18-06
| | Open Defence: I made only one bet today and a small one $100 on the opening which I won :-) |
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| May-18-06 | | technical draw: Wow! Chuga dropped more than 4 grand on that last round (I picked up 350).. |
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May-18-06
| | Open Defence: my strategy is to bet small hoping that refutor and chuga have a rush of blood and bet the trust fund on Barcot hehehehehehehehe |
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| May-18-06 | | technical draw: <TIMER> Just keep your cool and hope the loansharks don't break your legs before you start climbing back up. |
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| May-18-06 | | technical draw: <chessbookie> In the MTel Masters rd 9 pick 3, you show Kamsky playing against both Topalov and Bacrot.
Game 1: Kamsky vs Topalov
Game 3: Bacrot vs Kamsky.
One of them should be Ponomariov. |
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| May-18-06 | | TrueBlue: OK, here is the reason why I think the system is messed up. Look at Topalov's next game. Odds for a tie are great: 4:1. So it makes sence to bet on a tie. However, if odds change, a tie may not be such a good idea. If I am guaranteed these odds, then I would be more than happy to put money on a tie, although I believe Topalov will win. The result is that people don't try to balance out bets and we are getting lots of lopsided bets. Like today's odds for Topalov win were just crazy. So I believe that market economy is not very well applied in this sytem. My sugestion is that once you make a bet, the odds of the bet should be fixed and not change. |
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May-18-06
 | | Chessgames Bookie: There are systems, like the ones used at the online sportsbooks, which allow for fixed-odds wagering through a very complicated system called a "betting market." It's so complex, than if you actually got what you were asking for, you probably would want to go back to the parimutuel method. We just want a simple way where people can pick who they think will win (or draw). The problems with a fixed-odds system for our purposes are (1) it would be untenable to do this with only 500-1000 participants, as the market would not be fluid, and (2) exotic bets like the pick-three are virtually impossible in a a fixed-odd system. While exotics are interesting, the main problem is point (1). Suppose, for example, you wanted to wager 10 chessbucks that Italy wins the Chess Olympiad. You would rightfully be looking to get odds of 500:1 or better. However, in order to receive such odds that means that another participant is willing to lay 5000 chessbucks on Italy to lose to Chess Olympiad. While that is probably a safe way to earn 10 chessbucks, that means that somebody would have to have 5000 chessbucks tied up for a long duration. It's unlikely that anybody with that many chessbucks would be interested in having their funds tied up like that for such little return on their money. In the end, betting on Italy would be impossible. Once again, if you want to ensure that you know almost exactly the odds received, place your bet right before the event begins. It's highly unlikely for the odds to change much at that time. We usually close betting 5 minutes prior to the start of the game, or 30 minutes prior when it comes to bets regarding the opening. |
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| May-18-06 | | refutor: due to some over indulgence by armenia supporters, there is some money to be made in the olympiad (in my patzer opinion) |
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| May-18-06 | | blingice: User: jokinas User: tanayk I think it may be time to require emails to register on <CG.com>, because I know that the accounts above weren't created for the interaction here. |
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| May-18-06 | | blingice: User: cbrown124 User: Legendary Gambler User: betty345 User: nsadh
User: WFMBhakti User: hattrickss Some more suspects.
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| May-18-06 | | TheoreticalNovelty: I was just thinking, isn't it possible for ChessGame members to fix the odds?
What you could do is open up multiple accounts, betting all the ChessBucks from each of these accounts on a specific outcome. Thus changing the odds. Is there a way you can stop people from doing that Bookie? As I imagine that probably all those accounts that blingice posted above were probably accounts opened to fix the odds. Anyway, I just joined up here today and Ive already wagered my 1000 chessbucks on tonights MTel games. Hopefully one of my bets will come through for me. |
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| May-18-06 | | Holden: <Chessgames Bookie> should look into what <blingice> posted. I'll wager some chessbucks that some of those newly created ID's share the same IP address. |
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| May-18-06 | | blingice: <TN> The previous leader of the game, <giantwizard>, was leading with about 16,000 before <CG.com> banned him. They didn't tell us what he did, but speculation of <percyblakeney> on the User: refutor Chessforum is basically what you mentioned. |
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| May-18-06 | | TrueBlue: Thanks for the explanation CG bookie, you gave me some food for thought :) |
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| May-18-06 | | NakoSonorense: How long do i have to wait to get another loan from the loanshark? I have one right now for 656 and my net wroth is 856. |
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May-18-06
| | WannaBe: <NakoSonorense> Usually next day, not sure if it's exactly 24 hours, or when the server clock crosses into next day. |
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| May-18-06 | | NakoSonorense: I see. Thanks, wannabe. |
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| May-18-06 | | TrueBlue: So the main difference is that with fixed-odds wagering the
house may loose money. With the current system, the
house never looses money :) Which of course means that the money is circulation keeps shrinking and, assuming no new users join,
it will approach 0 in due time. So people open several accounts from the same IP to put fresh money in the system.So here is what I believe it should be done. The house should take no cut! People should get interest on their money in order for the money in circulation to
increas. New accounts from the same IP should not be allowed. And can't the house just fix initial odds and manipulate them according to incoming bets?
Like the house can put 1:500 for USA winning the world cup (let's talk about soccer, wagering on chess is just weird :) ).
If people start putting money on the USA, the odds may decrease to 1:100. If nobody does, the odds may go to 1:600. |
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