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| Sep-21-15 | | MarkFinan: The bookie falls asleep on bookie watch everytime I win. C'mon Pengerz wake up, lol. I need to pay the loanshark a few grand. |
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Sep-21-15
 | | FSR: Sweet - my net worth increased by over C$4100 in one day. |
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Sep-21-15
 | | Penguincw: World Cup R4,G2: Pick Four
Hmm, only about 9K (I guess that So game bet was "distracting"), but check out this: < For example, if Wei Yi and Vachier-Lagrave win, and Eljanov - Jakovenko and Topalov - Svidler are drawn, "White-Black-Draw-Draw" will pay. > < WINNER: White-Black-Draw-Draw > Wow, what are the odds of that? 221:1 of course. :) |
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| Sep-21-15 | | pitapino: <Penguin> Your pick threes have been excellent. If records were kept for average payout per pick 3 per leg, my guess is you are setting the all time lowest payout average. Maybe its luck but I believe you have a magic touch for that bet. You Penguin are a pick three (and 4) master. (Note: this is my fifth leg, its quite possible I have no clue what I am talking about, but good job anyway <Penguin>) :) |
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Sep-21-15
 | | Penguincw: < pitapino: <Penguin> Your pick threes have been excellent. > Thank you.
< If records were kept for average payout per pick 3 per leg, my guess is you are setting the all time lowest payout average. > What does average payout mean though?
But in terms of records, there have been over 40 Pick Threes this leg! In fact, this leg is setting all kinds of records. :p < Maybe its luck but I believe you have a magic touch for that bet. You Penguin are a pick three (and 4) master. (Note: this is my fifth leg, its quite possible I have no clue what I am talking about, but good job anyway <Penguin>) :) > Thank you for the kind words. :) |
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| Sep-22-15 | | pitapino: <What does average payout mean though?> I meant the percentage of the winning chessbuck bet in regards to the total pool. You have kept this number amazingly low. One winner was 760 but I can't recall another over 200. I can't speak for everyone but I do appreciate your efforts making this so difficult. :) |
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Sep-22-15
 | | FSR: It's Giri, Wei Yi, Eljanov, and Karjakin through to Round 5. No Armageddon game. |
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Sep-22-15
 | | FSR: <sydbarrett: I like Fred... he amuses me, like a clown. But I won't let him overtake me.> I'll just do it without your permission then.
<3. FSR 12,226
4. sydbarrett 10,428>
As for your sidekick:
<105. MarkFinan 1,255> Congratulations on breaking into positive-land!
Once again, FSR > Syd + MF |
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Sep-22-15
 | | FSR: Bookie, whatever happened to bets on someone's first move? And why limit it to first moves - you should have a bet on, say, Nakamura's <third> move: 3.Nc3, 3.Nf3, 3.d4, 3.Bb5, and OTHER. The first Nakamura-Eljanov game would be ideal for this bet, since Nakamura plays 1.e4 and 1.d4 almost equally, while Eljanov in response to 1.e4 plays 1...c5 and 1...e5 almost equally (leading to White's third move usually being 3.d4 and 3.Bb5, respectively - though Nakamura has also played 3.Bb5 in the Sicilian occasionally, and 3.d4 (the Scotch) against 1...e5 occasionally)). |
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| Sep-22-15 | | sydbarrett: Let's place a bet on how long your lead over me will last. I say two days.
Strangely enough i got all 5 winners in Pick Five correct! But I got sucker-punched in the anti-upset bet. There's always one bet that rains on my parade lately. |
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| Sep-22-15 | | sydbarrett: I wish Wei Yi had his own Cup Winner bet. I'd have gladly put money on him. But he got grouped up with lots of rabble in the "Other" bet, and that made it too expensive. I don't appreciate his knocking out Ding Liren. I had a big payoff from Ding's potential Cup win. |
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| Sep-22-15 | | MarkFinan: I can only find the Yi result on chess24, I don't know where I stand just yet. I have roughly 4k in live bets and 2k in funds to have a late run at a top 20 spot. |
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| Sep-22-15 | | MarkFinan: <SETTLEMENT DATE: Sep-22-15
PROJECTED PAYOUT: -- (7:9)
World Cup R4,Tiebreaks: Anti-Upset Special
3 or 4 players
LOSE 1000c$
[discard ticket]>
That just destroyed my effort to return to the Jedi council. I still don't have a negative balance but this leg has been really hard. |
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Sep-22-15
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: <Penguincw> http://bakuworldcup2015.com/content... shows Giri and Nakamura with Black in R5G1. |
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Sep-22-15
 | | Penguincw: < SwitchingQuylthulg: <Penguincw> http://bakuworldcup2015.com/content... shows Giri and Nakamura with Black in R5G1. > Ooh, that's not good. I guess all I can do now is wait. Luckily I placed in this disclaimer: < "Note: I am assuming these are the colours for G1 of their match. If these are actually the colours for G2, I will rename this bet accordingly, and all bets will stand." > So, if it turns out that those are the colours for G2, I'll rename it, and extend the opening bet. Later this night, I was going to put out G2 bets so that you guys don't have to wait for me to come home and then put up the bets, but I guess I'm going to have to do it now. But thanks, I'll keep a careful eye on it. |
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Sep-22-15
 | | Chessgames Bookie: ♔ ANNOUNCEMENT ♔
For those who plan to make bets on any Round 5 game bets, please read the following. For Game 1, I made an assumption on what the colours would be. As it turned out, I got 2 right, and 2 wrong. What I've decided to do, is put out all 8 classical game bets now, all with a closing time of Wed/Sep/23/2015 5:56:44 am, <cg> time. If a bet turns out to be a G1 bet, I'll rename it as so, and leave it as is. If a bet turns out to be a G2 bet, I'll rename it as so, and reopen it to the proper closing time. I know this isn't really ideal, as the G1 bets will likely have a much lower pool than it should, but I rather not making an assumption on what colour a game will be, only for it to change before closing time. That's not a great way for someone to start their morning. But I don't think having 17 bets all close out at the same time is a great idea either, so what I'm going to do is place 100 on white, 50 on black and 200 on draw, for each game. <ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW IS>: Just place the bets as though they will all close tomorrow. I will then re-open any bets, as necessary. Thanks for your patience (which I'm pretty sure is pretty think by this point), and sorry for any inconvenience. - Penguin
P.S. As it <currently> is, these look to be the G1 bets: World Cup R5: Svidler - Wei Yi
World Cup R5: Vachier-Lagrave - Giri
World Cup R5: Eljanov - Nakamura
World Cup R5: Mamedyarov - Karjakin
But of course, it's not official. |
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| Sep-22-15 | | whiteshark: What's wrong this week? I have not the foggiest i:(dea. |
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| Sep-22-15 | | choosea: hoes wetes ??????
hoes blkcss ???
hoes hoess ???
no1 noes ?!@?@!21?@!/
@#$@%@%%@@%@%%@
giris == wete ore blkcs ???
mmvvlls == wete or blkcs ???
som11 noesssssssssssssss?!@?@!2!?????????????????????????? |
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| Sep-22-15 | | sydbarrett: You actually put in a 3rd move bet?! How ridiculous. A buffoonish bet concocted by a silly buffoon (Fred)! Are we to listen for life advice from homeless people as well? |
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| Sep-22-15 | | sydbarrett: Lots of interesting bets this round. Looks like lots of fun |
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Sep-22-15
 | | Penguincw: And now time for me to actually reply to some comments: < FSR: Bookie, whatever happened to bets on someone's first move? ... > Sounds interesting, in case you haven't noticed, I already put up that bet. < sydbarrett: I wish Wei Yi had his own Cup Winner bet. I'd have gladly put money on him. But he got grouped up with lots of rabble in the "Other" bet, and that made it too expensive. > I had to draw the line somewhere. :) I had your suggestion in mind, and placed up a bet asking for the 2 finalists, but I then thought it should be better if it's only the winner. But by then, it was too late. But once there are just 4 players left, I'll put an "In-Play Winner". < sydbarrett: You actually put in a 3rd move bet?! How ridiculous. A buffoonish bet concocted by a silly buffoon (Fred)! Are we to listen for life advice from homeless people as well? > <syd>, what suggestion would you like for R5,G2? :) |
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| Sep-23-15 | | sydbarrett: Yea I understand about Wei Yi not having his own bet for Winner. He was still low-rated at start of Cup. But I happen to think he will become huge. He was my very first bet and it got me hooked on this game.
i still cant figure out how to calculate payoffs for multiple payoff bets. I think for instance in "pick four winners" You divide payoff by 4? So if 10 pays 39, you actually lose money even if you pick correctly. I dunno |
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| Sep-23-15 | | MarkFinan: <If a bet turns out to be a G1 bet, I'll rename it as so, and leave it as is. If a bet turns out to be a G2 bet, I'll rename it as so, and reopen it to the proper closing time.> I like you Mr Bookie, I think you're doing a great job and I appreciate the time you put into this, and renaming a game is all fine and dandy (Sounds like me and my mate Andy!? Lol) but I would say all of the first games will be drawn, e4 opening, some kinda Berlin, 15 move draw, and I'll see you in the lunch que before Nakamura gets there. Just a hunch. So...I don't know whether I'm betting on a game of chess or beating Nakamura to the cafeteria. And I have no idea which 2 you got right and which 2 you got wrong either. I don't like moaning, I'm not Fred, I just want to put it out there that should I win something I've no idea how, lol. |
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Sep-23-15
 | | Chessgames Bookie: Good morning all. So it turns out, these are the G1 bets: Svidler - Wei Yi
Vachier-Lagrave - Giri
Eljanov - Nakamura
Mamedyarov - Karjakin
(basically, the bets I listed)
So I'm going to leave the above bets alone, and the other ones, I'm going to reopen them in a bit. Unfortunately, I said I would help try to put a good pool on them, but forgot. :p However, you guys seemed to know which bets were like G1, and placed most of your money on them, so smart. I imagine the G2 pools should be fine, but I'm not sure I feel like putting out any more Daily Doubles. I'll have to find an alternate bet... - Penguin |
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Sep-23-15
 | | Penguincw: < sydbarrett: ... I think for instance in "pick four winners" You divide payoff by 4? So if 10 pays 39, you actually lose money even if you pick correctly. > What happens is that you take all the money on losing pools (lines that didn't win), and then the Bookie takes juice. Since there are 4 winners, the losing pool is divided 4 ways, and distributed proportionally. For example, this bet: World Cup R3: Pick Four (Winners) The losing pool is 2518.45 cbs [ (12269 - 1942 - 1936 - 3510 - 2230) * 0.95 ] 2518.45/4=629.6125 cbs. 629.6125 cbs is approx. how much money each line gets. For example: - Wei Yi: 629.6125 / 1942 + 1 = 1.32
The odds for Wei Yi should end up paying about 1.32 (note I added the one at the end to consider the fact that you end up getting your money back + profit). Let's have a look at another example: - Mamedyarov: 629.6125 / 3510 + 1 = 1.18
You see, the more money on a line, the lower the odds. However, as long as you only have 1 bet on any one of the winners, you will never lose money (you may profit 0 though, it's happened before). Now if you do the math on a regular bet, it's actually the same. For example, World Cup R4,Tiebreaks: Anti-Upset Special. Here, the losing pool is 3863.65 cbs: (5894-1827)*0.95 3863.65 is then divided 1 way (1 ways), because there's only one winner. So it stays 3863.65. 3863.65 / 1827 + 1 gets you 3.11, which is the odds displayed. I'm pretty sure there's clearer instructions on this somewhere in this forum, but I think you get what I'm trying to say. |
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