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| Jun-29-06 | | technical draw: Who do you have to bribe to get a win here? I am almost in last place with -700 chessbucks. Guess I'll have to wait for the next series cause this one is tap city for me. |
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Jun-30-06
 | | Sneaky: Watching Magnus tear up this field at the "Midnight Sun" tournament sure doesn't make me feel good about all my chessbookie tickets I took up against him :-( |
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Jun-30-06
 | | WannaBe: Yes!! I'm officially at zero chess bucks!! =( |
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| Jun-30-06 | | TrueBlue: you can actually make a fortune here regardless of the outcome of the event. The two open bets are a perfect example :) Too bad it doesn't work like that in real life, well, you always have the stock market :) |
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Jul-01-06
| | Sneaky: Yes, the trick would be to make a large bet on Carlsen with the "Norwegian Championship: Winner" bet, then bet AGAINST Magnus in the "Will Magnus Win?" bet, and then arrange it such that regardless of the outcome, you win money. It's called "arbitrage."
Two problems with this... first, you have to swoop in at the last minute to do this, otherwise the odds will slide around on you. Second, if the disparity in the odds between the two bets is less than 5%, you won't make any money due to the juice. |
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Jul-01-06
| | WannaBe: <Sneaky> I call it hedging... :-) |
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| Jul-01-06 | | DCP23: <Sneaky>, could you please explain to the more thick-headed of us, like me, what EXACTLY, step-by-step, do I need to do to win money on two contradicting bets (like these Carlsen bets)? |
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Jul-01-06
| | Sneaky: < SNEAKY'S << ARBITRAGE FOR DUMMIES>>> Let's say for the sake of argument that the "Will Magnus Win?" ticket has Magnus' odds like this: YES = 1.35
NO = 3.57
Now suppose you go over to the other bet, the odds are totally different. Over there, Magnus is getting 1.5 odds to win! This would be an arbitrage opportunity. (If they were the same, or were close, it wouldn't be an opportunity.) Here's how you make money. Put 1000 on the "NO" ticket at the first bet. If it wins, you'll get 3570 in return. Now go over to the next bet, where Magnus is getting 1.5 odds. Bet 2380 on Magnus. If he wins, you'll get back 3570. Now let's add this up. You make a bet for 1000, and a bet for 2308, that's only 3380 in bets. But whoever wins, you get 3570. So you're guaranteed to profit 190. And by the way, when you're done, guess what? The odds will have moved closer towards each other, like they should be. You just added more sanity to the market, and became part of the invisible hand of capitalism. ♗
<disclaimer> Like I said above, this can fail in a number of ways. The odds can move on you from other bettors. Plus, your own bets will make the odds change. You really have to do your homework to make something like this work. ♗
OK, here's another trick related to this idea. Let's say you don't do any of this arbitrage stuff, you just decide to pick winners. Let's take two players who are really really evenly matched. I don't know, let's call them Mr. K and Mr. T. They are going to play a big match, and the betting is getting wild. In your mind, this bet is even money. Either one could win, it's like a coin flip. So you make a 30 chessbuck bet on Mr. T. You're happy about it, and hope to cash your ticket for about 60 if Mr. T succeeds. But then over the next few days, crazed mobs of Mr. T fans flood to the Bookie and make the odds 5:1 for Mr. K. Now you want to get a refund and bet on Mr. K instead, but you can't. Here's what you do. Make a massive bet, let's say 200 or so, on Mr. K. If Mr. K wins, you win, and you win big. You've effectively neutralized your bet on Mr. T. And once agian, your efforts helped nudge the market back in the direction of sanity. ♗
<disclaimer> If you gamble this way, you can go broke in a hurry. |
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Jul-01-06
 | | Open Defence: as a Financial Analyst Arbitrage is close to my heart....BUT as Sneaky says you can go broke in a hurry .. also you may not have sufficient chess bucks to impact the odds sufficiently and a loan from the shark adds to the risk..... |
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| Jul-01-06 | | TrueBlue: Sneaky, I admit, I actually won some money "gambling" the second way. I put a massive wager on Topalov to win the competition with 3:1 odds. Few days later, I put the same amount of money for Anand to beat Topalov, but this time the odds were 3:1 for Anand. It was money in the bank. |
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Jul-01-06
| | Sneaky: To perform arbitrage, you have to have access to large amounts of capital and be content to scrape in a very tiny profit. But all those tiny profits can add up. |
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| Jul-01-06 | | TrueBlue: I had access to about 85K last leg, is this enough? |
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| Jul-01-06 | | percyblakeney: In the Carlsen case, I think he should win easily, on the July list I think he'll be 100 ELO points better than the second favourite. But I think it's boring to bet on things that take a long time to be decided, and I doubt the odds will end up better than 1.30... |
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Jul-01-06
| | Sneaky: I'd give Carlsen a 2/3rds chance of winning. |
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| Jul-01-06 | | DCP23: <Sneaky>, thanks a lot for your elaborations! I think I might try this now. <let's call them Mr. K and Mr. T>
He-he... |
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| Jul-01-06 | | percyblakeney: <You make a bet for 1000, and a bet for 2308, that's only 3380 in bets. But whoever wins, you get 3570. So you're guaranteed to profit 190> The biggest back sides to this strategy is that the odds will be lowered by the bets, so you will gain less than 190, and the odds will change even more during the week before it starts. You would also have almost 3500 "tied up" for at least a week, and couldn't take advantage of other good options that might come up. |
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| Jul-01-06 | | acchessor: Will there be any bets available for the World Open? |
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| Jul-02-06 | | chessmind: t u chessgames.com
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| Jul-02-06 | | refutor: lol mr.t
i'm trying to picture topalov saying "i pity the fool..." |
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Jul-02-06
| | Open Defence: *i pity the fool.. i pity the fool who open 1.Nf3... I pity the fool who plays the Petroff...* |
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Jul-03-06
| | Sneaky: Kramnik?? I pity the fool!!
http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b... |
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| Jul-04-06 | | olydream3: <sneaky> the photo on that site must have been edited by a computer. i am sure Topalov looks way cooler than that |
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| Jul-04-06 | | TIMER: You see, T is short for Topalov! |
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| Jul-08-06 | | percyblakeney: The Carlsen odds ended up at 1.38 and 1.41, not too much to gain by choosing the right alternative here. In the last round of Aerosvit there were reasons to check out the odds if you believed in Rublevsky and Shirov, though. The daily double on combined wins for both of them was 4.33. But in single games the odds on Rublevsky was 5.20, and 5.14 on Shirov. Choosing just one of them not only gave a better odds, but also a much bigger chance to win. |
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Jul-08-06
 | | Chessgames Bookie: We would offer betting on individual games in the Norwegian Championship, if we could only figure out the pairings. If anybody can read this website http://www.nm2006.sjakknet.no/ please let us know where to find pairing information, and we'll put the bets up. |
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