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Sep-06-07
 | | Sneaky: Here are some things that I look for when making bets: • If the odds of a draw is better than 3:2, I take it automatically. Nearly every game has a 50% chance of drawing, so anything more than 1:1 is a bargain. • If the odds of a draw is pathetic, e.g. 1:2, I will put a small amount of money on both White and Black. • If the bettors seem to think that "Black will win" (i.e. the most money is on Black) then I will happily put a little money on White and a little money on the draw. Black just doesn't win that often, it doesn't matter who's playing. • I go through the pick-3 and anytime a combination has less than 10 dollars on it I throw a few bucks on that outcome. In the worst case I lose a few bucks, in the best case I cash in several hundred bucks. • I also look for any pick-3 tickets that have two draws in the result, like Draw-White-Draw or Draw-Draw-Black. These are the most common winning combinations, so all of those bets should have good money on them. Therefore if one of those outcomes has been ignored by the bettors I'll throw a few dollars on it. I don't even bother looking at which players are involved, when you are getting 100:1 odds or better it doesn't really matter. • And last but not least, let's not forget that wild and unpredictable "Mr. Jones" (Gawain Jones). I also didn't mention it earlier but I was winning a good bit of money on the player I've nicknamed "Whirly Bird" (Jan Werle). Both of these players kept winning games that paid 5:1, 10:1 etc, so you'd think that people would start betting on them... but no, they're just not popular enough to attract the money. |
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| Sep-06-07 | | zanshin: <Sneaky> I see that your system is quite a bit more complicated than simply "betting the longshots". No wonder I couldn't get anything going. If you win, let us know if CG gives you an extra free year in Premieland. |
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| Sep-06-07 | | malthrope: Yep I think we can just have some fun with this one! (Summer leg ending September 10th with 3 rounds left in the 'China-UK' match). Thanks <Sneaky> for sharing your Chessgames Bookie 'hot tips' there. :-) This is my first time in 3 attempts that I've been able play with some actual chessbucks. Even had to avoid the loanshark's boys and his famous cement shoes the last time. ~lol~ In any event other than a small bit of bad luck In Rd #10 of the NH chess tournament (lady luck just wasn't shining for me on that day) and I got knocked down a tad. Today was a good day with big bets on Mickey, Nigel and Pick 3 with 'white-white-white' which didn't hurt matters at all... It has been fun! ;-) |
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| Sep-06-07 | | YouRang: How about a wager on black's 7th move in Chessgames Challenge: The World vs G Timmerman, 2007? |
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| Sep-06-07 | | pawnofdoom: Yes, that would be a pretty good idea. In the database, there is about an equal number of games with 7. ... Qe8, c6, and Nc6, that makes the betting a lot harder |
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Sep-07-07
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: <• If the odds of a draw is better than 3:2, I take it automatically. Nearly every game has a 50% chance of drawing, so anything more than 1:1 is a bargain.> Even for Van Wely games? I've won a lot of money betting on non-draws in Van Wely games... pretty much the only thing in my system that actually works :) |
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Sep-07-07
| | SwitchingQuylthulg: <Sneaky: Black just doesn't win that often, it doesn't matter who's playing.> Really? Chessgames.com statistics have 5415 wins for White and 4065 wins for Black this year. Not much of a difference. |
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Sep-07-07
 | | Chessgames Bookie: The final betting day of the summer leg will be Sunday, September 9th. We will have wagering on the last round of the China-UK Summit Match. Good luck everyone! |
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Sep-07-07
| | Sneaky: <SwitchingQuylthulg> That's an interesting statistic, but ChessBookie offers us the top players from the top events and you are looking at a wide arrange of games, some of which could even be said to be amateur. Besides, even taking your statistics at face value, after you factor the draws into the equation, black is a quite unlikely outcome. Out of every single game in the database, <Black wins 118,814 games (26.66%)> (See ChessGames.com Statistics Page.) You have to be betting on a really skewed mismatch to predict that Black will probably win. By the way, I am by no means popping the champagne yet. I know from previous legs that everything can change even on the very last day. I have a feeling things are going to get totally scrambled in the next week. |
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Sep-07-07
| | SwitchingQuylthulg: <Sneaky: ChessBookie offers us the top players from the top events> This does make Black a more unlikely outcome overall but still not so unlikely compared to White. The number of White wins and Black wins in a couple tournaments lately, mostly ones there has been betting on (according to chessgames.com): UK-China so far. White 10, Black 4, Draw 13. (Blacks have spoiled a couple won games.)
NH Chess Tournament. White 13, Black 10, Draw 27.
Biel Chess Festival. White 13, Black 8, Draw 24. (White only comes out on top so clearly because of a special case - Bu Xiangzhi, who is a lot better with White than Black. Without his games it's only 8-7 in White's favour. Here we see a very good example of how all players are different in this regard. During Biel I got a lot of money both here and in <YouRang>'s betting contest by betting White to win all of Bu's games.) French Championship. White 15, Black 12, Draw 39.
Aerosvit. White 12, Black 11, Draw 42.
Mtel Masters. White 7, Black 6, Draw 17.
Bosna. White 4, Black 8, Draw 18. (Here we see the counterexample. Morozevich was in an excellent Black form. Without his games White wins 4-2.)
Corus. White 22, Black 14, Draw 55.
I see no big advantage for White. The advantage only comes clearer when players are >2700 players with a solid style such as Kramnik's. Only ournaments like this (Corus, Linares, Dortmund) show White clearly on top. And some others:
Ordix Open. White 39, Black 45, Draw 30. Some games missing though.
2007 WCCC. White 21, Black 23, Draw 19.
2006 WCCC. White 32, Black 40, Draw 21.
Looks like statistics don't quite agree with you :)
Also, this leg there has been a lot of bets on games between players of "only" 2400-strength. By the way chessgames.com has Rowson playing against H.Wang in individual game but against Y.Wang in Pick Three. (H.Wang should be correct)... This has perhaps influenced some pick-3 bets (I for example put lots of bucks on tickets involving Black winning that game, which I wouldn't've done if I had known it was Hao rather than Yue) |
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| Sep-07-07 | | malthrope: Just a curious question... Are the bets as to 'who plays whom' in the 'China vs UK, Rd #5 - Pick 3' going to be the top 3 boards as in the previous rounds? (#1: Wang H vs Adams, #2: Zhang vs Short & #3: Rowson vs Hou). Everything was left blank (no opponents or boards are listed). Thanks ChessBookie! :-) |
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Sep-07-07
| | Chessgames Bookie: <malthrope: Just a curious question... Are the bets as to 'who plays whom' in the 'China vs UK, Rd #5 - Pick 3' going to be the top 3 boards as in the previous rounds? (#1: Wang H vs Adams, #2: Zhang vs Short & #3: Rowson vs Hou). Everything was left blank (no opponents or boards are listed). > We fixed it now and you got it correct. <SwitchingQuylthulg:> <By the way chessgames.com has Rowson playing against H.Wang in individual game but against Y.Wang in Pick Three. (H.Wang should be correct)... This has perhaps influenced some pick-3 bets (I for example put lots of bucks on tickets involving Black winning that game, which I wouldn't've done if I had known it was Hao rather than Yue)> This has just come to our attention and we are deciding how to handle it. The ChessBookie players are generally responsible for staying abreast of the true facts of the event by visting the official site. For example, previously in the leg we did not refund bets on Andrei Sokolov when the player was in fact Ivan Sokolov--we just updated the information and let all Sokolov bets stand. However if there is a scenario where even an informed player cannot make out the definition of the wager then we should cancel it. |
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| Sep-08-07 | | percyblakeney: 4.40 on Houska winning with white against a more than 120 points lower rated opponent isn't a bad odds: China vs UK: Rd 5: Houska vs Ding |
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Sep-08-07
| | Chessgames Bookie: After some consideration we've decided to pay off China vs UK: Rd 4: Pick Three letting all bets stand. The criteria is whether an informed bettor could discern the conditions of the bet. We try to avoid inaccuracies in the yellow information window but ultimately it's the bettor's responsibility to stay abreast of the players, match-ups, and rules of the tournament. We've also updated the ChessBookie Game Help Page to provided more information about making bets, and included a new disclaimer: <IMPORTANT: The yellow "information window" is provided as a courtesy for some bets to clarify the conditions of the wager, or to provide other important information. It is always YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be informed of the tournament rules, conditions, players, and other factors that may influence the game. Do not rely entirely on the information window to inform you of the circumstances of the bet. The ChessBookie shall not be held liable for errors or inaccuracies provided in the information window. If the bet is unintelligible even to informed bettors, the ChessBookie may decide to refund all wagers necessary--however, if informed bettors can discern the terms of the wager, we will allow all bets to stand. The ChessBookie will be the final arbiter in deciding whether a bet should be refunded due to confusion over the terms of the bet.We suggest that all bettors find the official sites, and gather as much information as possible about the players, the match-ups, and the tournament rules.> The winning ticket therefore is Black/Draw/Draw which will pay off at 70:1 odds. Sorry if anybody bought tickets in error, and congratulations to the winners. |
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Sep-09-07
| | Chessgames Bookie: ♔ END OF THE LEG ♔
We've put up three bets on tomorrow Carlsbad's tournament. THESE WILL BE THE FINAL BETS OF THE SUMMER LEG! Carlsbad Rd 3: Korchnoi vs Akopian
Carlsbad Rd 3: Shirov vs Timman
Carlsbad Rd 3: Daily Double
Good luck to everybody. The winners of the Summer Leg will be announced after the Carlsbad games tomorrow. We will recompute the leaderboard table today at 12:00 noon (After the Timmerman bet is resolved) so everybody knows where they stand in preparation for the final round of betting. The Fall Leg will begin on Tuesday. |
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| Sep-09-07 | | Karpova: <Chessgames Bookie>
I bet on 7...c6 in the GMT game and won 293 chessbucks so that I have 1180 now (correctly displayed on the chessbookie homepage but not in the summer leg standings and my profile where you gave me just 887 chessbucks!
I never lost a single bet! |
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Sep-09-07
| | SwitchingQuylthulg: Why does this leg have to end? I've only just found my form. Big earnings today and for the first time this leg I'm above 1000 bucks ;-) |
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| Sep-10-07 | | Karpova: Thanks, <Chessgames Bookie>! |
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Sep-10-07
| | Chessgames Bookie: The Summer Leg is now over, we just computed the leaderboard to present the final standings. The final 10 are are
User / Net Worth
(1) Sneaky 10,209
(2) percyblakeney 7,000
(3) redribbon3700 6,199
(4) grobler 6,126
(5) okuzucu 6,121
(6) Hot Logic 6,109
(7) krtecci 5,911
(8) lostemperor 5,349
(9) Morphystyle 5,299
(10) gunsan 5,132
The winner is <Sneaky> with 10,209 chessbucks. He will receive a free one-year membership to chessgames. All 10 users in the list above now qualify for the Championship in the Winter (which means they start with 10,000 chessbucks instead of the normal 1000.) The entire list of final standings for this leg are archived here http://www.chessgames.com/chessbook... for posterity. Congratulations to the winners. Of course, the real winner is always the house. I finished the leg with 48,489 chessbucks just from the juice. :-) The Fall Leg will begin tomorrow (Tuesday).
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Sep-10-07
 | | WannaBe: I'm debt free!! Wheee!!! I feel like a country, whose debt have been wiped clean. =) |
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| Sep-10-07 | | micartouse: <WannaBe: I feel like a country, whose debt have been wiped clean. =)> And we don't even need Bono to raise an awareness campaign for us. Looking forward to the next leg! |
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Sep-10-07
| | Sneaky: I can't believe it!!! I won!! Woo hooo!!! |
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Sep-10-07
| | WannaBe: <Sneaky> Congratulations, you little devil, you. |
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| Sep-10-07 | | chessamateur: He's <Sneaky> good! |
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| Sep-11-07 | | technical draw: Cheers for Sneaky!! Also for me for coming last (again).....Does that mean I have to pay double for membership? |
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