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Dec-08-22 | | areknames: Argentina 2 Netherlands 1
Brazil 2 Croatia 0
Portugal 2 Morocco 0
France 2 England 2 England wins shoot out |
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Dec-08-22 | | technical draw: <op> You're giving away too many goals. I wish your prediction would come true but I think we'll see more 1-0. |
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Dec-08-22 | | areknames: < And, in the personal chess news department, I will be playing my second post-pandemic OTB tournament next weekend. It's a 5-round Swiss, FIDE rated, here in Nashville: The Music City Open. Organized by the Nashville Chess Center, whose executive board I was invited to join on Monday> Just great news all around <Fusilli>, best of luck for the tournament! |
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Dec-08-22
 | | saffuna: I am surprised England is being picked by some to defeat France. It could happen, but France appears to have a clearly stronger team. |
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Dec-08-22 | | areknames: <saffuna> Come on, let's hear your specific predictions! |
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Dec-08-22
 | | saffuna: Too chicken.
But anyway...
France 2 England 0
Portugal 1 Morocco 0
Argentina 2 Netherlands 0
Brazil 3 Croatia 1 |
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Dec-08-22 | | technical draw: Here are my predictions, the following will advance: France
Portugal
Brazil
Argentina/Netherlands toss-up. |
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Dec-08-22
 | | Fusilli: <technical draw: Here are my predictions, the following will advance> Hey, you criticized <OP> for predicting too many goals, yet you don't offer your own predictions? :) We are making specific final score predictions. The fans want <TD>'s predictions! |
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Dec-08-22
 | | Fusilli: <saffuna: I am surprised England is being picked by some to defeat France. It could happen, but France appears to have a clearly stronger team.> Yes, but we are guessing, not evaluating who the best teams are. The best team does not always win. Here's a little probabilistic exercise. Say that we evaluate that the likelihood of a win for Brazil, Argentina, France, and Portugal is 0.7 for all of them (a simplification... the probability that Portugal beat Morocco seems way higher than the probability that France beat England). That is a high probability, when considering that the remaining 0.3 is for *both* losing and drawing together. (Technical note: in math and stats, probabilities are not expressed as % but as proportions--i.e. between 0 and 1.) If a probability of 0.7 across the board is true, then the probability that <all four> will win is 0.7 raised to the 4th power, or 0.24. So, yes, each of these teams is a strong candidate to win their match, but the probability that all four do so is slightly lower than 1 in 4. Just like Carlsen is a strong favorite to win all four games if he plays four players rated 2600, yet the likelihood that he concedes at least a draw is about 0.75. (See for a real life example his most recent batch of games vs Sevian and vs Shevchenko, two players rated near 2600: https://www.chessgames.com/perl/che...). I must add, that all four teams winning (given the 0.7 I picked) is still the *most likely* result. For example, the probability that three win and the fourth doesn't is 0.7 raised to the 3rd power, times 0.3 = 0.1029. (The probability that none of them wins is 0.3 raised to the 4th power, or 0.0081, not even 1 percent. But again, my 0.7 was arbitrary.) My preferred guess, as long as I am not committed to specify teams, would be that three of these four teams will move on and the other one will be surprisingly eliminated. (I hope it's not Argentina!) But this is not so surprising when you think in terms of probabilities. (Yes, I teach statistics, now and then!) |
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Dec-08-22 | | technical draw: <fusilli> Ok, here are my score predictions: All matches will end 1-0. |
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Dec-08-22 | | technical draw: <Fusilli (Yes, I teach statistics, now and then!)> That's good. But I have invented the secret formula to win the pick three lottery! |
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Dec-08-22
 | | Fusilli: <technical draw: <fusilli> Ok, here are my score predictions: All matches will end 1-0.>
Bold! As the fans expected! |
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Dec-08-22
 | | saffuna: I predict there will be a goal in the first five minutes of one game. I predict Brazil will wear yellow, Croatia will wear red checkerboard, Argentina will wear poweder-blue-and-white stripes, and Neitherlands will wear orange. In other words, all will wear their classic colors. |
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Dec-08-22 | | technical draw: I predict one player will complain of a call.
I predict there will be at least one off side.
I predict someone will fake an injury.
I predict the winners will be smiling and the loser will be frowning. Any bets? |
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Dec-08-22
 | | Fusilli: I want to see a field brawl! Can we see a field brawl? I predict no brawls though. |
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Dec-09-22
 | | Fusilli: Vamos Argentina today!! |
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Dec-09-22
 | | moronovich: Yes, vamos Argentina !
3-1 is my best bet.
The biggest question may be, that the dutch has´nt met so hard resistance, but otoh have saved some energy and the team looks rather harmonius this time. |
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Dec-09-22 | | technical draw: Brazil blew it. |
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Dec-09-22
 | | saffuna: I just saw a replay of Croatia's goal. How could Croatia get an attack like that with Brazil's defenders not back? Where were they, looking for a second goal and glory? |
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Dec-09-22
 | | moronovich: Wow ! Brazil is out.
Those croatians are certainly experts in penalty shoutout and in light of that, they deserved to go through.
But a horrible defence by the brazilians the last minuttes. This is good news for e.g. the argentines. |
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Dec-09-22
 | | saffuna: <Brazil is out.> Amazing! Somebody who write "Brazil <is> out," not "Brazil <are> out." I understand the English saying that, as that's English grammar. But I hear Americans saying "Argentina were strong today" and the like, which only comes across as pretentious. |
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Dec-09-22 | | technical draw: Brazil lost because they started partying too soon. Anyway I prefer sudden death overtime than two 15 minute periods. Once it got to penalty shots I knew it was all over for Brazil. <"Argentina were strong today" > Yes, that's sounds awful to my ears. |
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Dec-09-22
 | | saffuna: <Brazil lost because they started partying too soon.> That's what the British radio announcers were saying as well. Though they themselves were saying it was over after Neymar's goal. Certainly Brazil's defense should never have been caught upfield (up-pitch?) the way it was. Brazil's first penalty kick was simply weak. Waist high, right center without much power. |
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Dec-09-22 | | technical draw: Here's a strange trivia. Netherlands is playing Argentina. The Queen of the Netherlands was born in Buenos Aires. I wonder who she is rooting for? |
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Dec-09-22 | | technical draw: Simply put: divine justice. |
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