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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

Things To Look At:
1. Game Collection: 1975 World Junior chess championship
2. Ongoing edits Vladimir Ostrogsky
3. Bio Adolf Zytogorski
4. Complete the Olympiad
5. Bio Lorenz Maximilian Drabke

7. Baden-Baden (1870)

11. Karl Mayet
12. Smbat Lputian

Pi Day
rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

Pun Index Game Collection: Game of the Day & Puzzle of the Day Collections

>> Click here to see OhioChessFan's game collections.

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49343 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 102 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Mar-12-10  The Chess Express: <<<<<YouRang>>>> It's practically certain that our observations are incomplete, and that our best theories are approximations, and that future observations will force us to trash some of our theories.

But one <should> take this as a reason to discredit science or scientists.>

Well, that's oftentimes what happens. Perhaps you meant <should not>?

<<<<<YouRang>>>> Yes, but why do you think Darwin's answer will be discredited? Are your reasons scientific, or religious?>

For me it's more common sense. The whole fish to frogs, frogs to monkeys, monkeys to humans scenario seems to defy logic and I haven't seen any convincing scientific evidence for it. I wonder if one day we will evolve back into pineapples ...

Mar-12-10  whatthefat: <The Chess Express: <whatthefat> From what I've read it seems that the examples of speciation are when two different species that are closely related mate and produce an offspring that exhibits characteristics of both parents.>

There are also several examples explicitly listed as not being the result of hybridization (cross-breeding).

http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/faq...

For example, see:

<5.1.1.1 Evening Primrose (Oenothera gigas)>

<5.1.1.8 Maidenhair Fern (Adiantum pedatum)>

Observed cases of speciation that are neither the result of hybridization (cross-breeding) nor polyploidy (changes in chromosome number due to errors in cell division) are also listed:

<5.2.1 Stephanomeira malheurensis>

<5.2.2 Maize (Zea mays)>

And this particularly impressive example in animals:

<5.3.5 Sympatric Speciation in Drosophila melanogaster>

Also see this list for some good examples:
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/spe...

Speciation has been observed multiple times, in both plants and animals, and not simply through hybridization. Lack of evidence for speciation is not a valid criticism of the theory of evolution.

<Think about it. How could a fish have mated with a land animal to produce an amphibian? What could a monkey have mated with to produce a human?>

Of course this is not what happened, and no such claim has never been made by evolutionary biologists. In fact, the only people who have ever interpreted the theory of evolution in that way were actually people who either completely misunderstood it or were seeking to discredit it through ridicule, e.g., http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...

Mar-12-10  whatthefat: <The Chess Express: For me it's more common sense. The whole fish to frogs, frogs to monkeys, monkeys to humans scenario seems to defy logic and I haven't seen any convincing scientific evidence for it. I wonder if one day we will evolve back into pineapples ...>

With all due respect, scientific evidence takes precedence over common sense. No amount of common sense would have developed the theories of relativity or quantum theory, and nor would it have gotten us very far in fields closer to home, such as biology and medicine. Our common sense is based on a very limited interaction with the world around us, and it varies from one individual to another - I happen to find the theory of evolution to be very intuitive.

Mar-12-10  The Chess Express: <whatthefat> Instead of me doing all the research again how about you just giving a summary of the science that explains how we've gone from single cell, to fish, to frog, to monkey, to human. It would save me a lot of time (and probably error). Since you are so convinced by the evidence I'm sure you have a better understanding of it than I do. Thanks in advance.
Mar-12-10  whatthefat: <TCE>

The evidence comes in several forms. Chiefly genetics - which explains the chemical basis for evolution and heritability, and supports our understanding of phylogeny based on morphology and the fossil record. Also, direct observations of the development of adaptations and speciation in the laboratory. Additionally, computer simulations have demonstrated that it is possible for very complex features such as the eye to evolve progressively, i.e., a 'quantum leap' is not required, since intermediate forms confer progressively larger advantages - it is not a matter of all or nothing, half an eye is still functionally better than no eye at all. Of course this is just scratching the surface. I am not exaggerating when I say that the amount of evidence supporting the theory of evolution is comparable to amount of evidence supporting the theory of gravity.

Mar-12-10  YouRang: <The Chess Express> <<But one <should> take this as a reason to discredit science or scientists.>

... Perhaps you meant <should not>? >

Yes, that's what I meant, thanks.

Mar-12-10  whatthefat: By the way, here's quite an influential open-access paper on the topic of how we evolved from apes:

http://www.pnas.org/content/88/20/9...

and another that requires institutional access:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conte...

And there's a lay explanation here:

http://www.evolutionpages.com/chrom...

It's known that humans have 23 chromosome pairs, whereas the other apes have 24 pairs. Now, not only is 95% of our DNA identical to that of chimpanzees, one of our chromosomes looks almost exactly like two of the chromosomes found in apes, laid end to end. Now, if this is just a ruse God planted for us to find, then he certainly did a very impressive job.

Mar-12-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <TCE> I am reluctant to get into a link dropping contest but I don't see any other way to reasonably address your question of what evidence leads me to believe the world is less than 10,000 years old. I'm sure you can google "Evidence for a young earth" etc and find the same things.
Mar-12-10  The Chess Express: <whatthefat> Yes, I've heard as much. I don't put much stock in the eye simulations because they reject negative mutations and then call it random even though negative mutations occur frequently in nature. One thing you mentioned that does interest me are the examples of speciation that are not associated with hybridization. If you know of any I'll be happy to take a look.
Mar-12-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <rapid: One reason for a young earth is that the moon gets closer every day. >

The decay of the magnetic field, the breakdown of hydrogen into helium, the orbits of comets, etc, are all processes, observable, predictable, and all point to a young earth. Predictably, the evolutionists insist those processes haven't been operating at that same rate for millions of years, though they also insist on uniformitarianism. Funny how they only set that aside for the very processes we can measure and which speak against their position.

Mar-12-10  whatthefat: <TCE: One thing you mentioned that does interest me are the examples of speciation that are not associated with hybridization. If you know of any I'll be happy to take a look.>

Just check out the examples I posted above. Specifically, I would recommend reading 5.1.1.1, 5.1.1.8, 5.2.1, 5.2.2, and 5.3.5 here:

http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/faq...

And also check out http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/spe... which contains several examples, including this one:

<Someone writes:

I have a friend who says since we have never seen a species actually split into two different species during recorded history that he has trouble believing in the theory of evolution. Is this bogus and have humans seen animals bred into different species? (The various highly bred english dogs come to mind but I suppose this would be easier to find in vegetation. Corn, wheat strains? Donkeys and mules? )

This is bogus. We've seen it happen naturally without our tampering with the process. From the FAQ:

"Three species of wildflowers called goatsbeards were introduced to the United States from Europe shortly after the turn of the century. Within a few decades their populations expanded and began to encounter one another in the American West. Whenever mixed populations occurred, the specied interbred (hybridizing) producing sterile hybrid offspring. Suddenly, in the late forties two new species of goatsbeard appeared near Pullman, Washington. Although the new species were similar in appearance to the hybrids, they produced fertile offspring. The evolutionary process had created a separate species that could reproduce but not mate with the goatsbeard plants from which it had evolved.">

Mar-12-10  The Chess Express: <OhioChessFan> I'm more interested in people's knowledge than what they can google. You're correct that posting a bunch of links with no explanation is akin to saying "I really don't know much, but these guys have really sold me."
Mar-12-10  The Chess Express: <whatthefat> The example you quoted is one of hybridization. Again, how do fish mate with frogs etc. I'll have a look at the link you posted.
Mar-12-10  whatthefat: <OCF: The decay of the magnetic field, the breakdown of hydrogen into helium, the orbits of comets, etc, are all processes, observable, predictable, and all point to a young earth.>

Do you have any scientific papers on any of these points?

<the breakdown of hydrogen into helium>

That one is impossible. Perhaps you mean fusion.

< Predictably, the evolutionists insist those processes haven't been operating at that same rate for millions of years, though they also insist on uniformitarianism.>

I think you are confusing two very different scientific assumptions here: (1) the assumption that the laws of physics are uniform in time; and (2) the assumption that a chemical or biological system is uniform in time. There is strong evidence for the former, while the second depends on what system you're talking about. Of course, biologists do not assume that the composition and temperature of the atmosphere have been uniform, nor that the distribution of species has been uniform, with time.

Mar-12-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <YouRang: The problem is that this interpretation doesn't agree with the vast majority of scientific opinion.

Consequently, those who support this specific interpretation feel the need to go on the attack against scientists, and accuse them of deliberately distorting science to be contrary to this interpretation. >

I am open to suggestions as to what would be the proper way for a person to disagree with a group they consider innately dishonest and biased. I am sure you've come in contact with people in your life you judged as dishonest. Do you "feel a need" to "attack" them? Isn't it possible you are in fact doing your best to set the record straight? Likewise, might I in fact be completely unbiased and not agenda driven here?

Mar-12-10  whatthefat: <TCE: The example you quoted is one of hybridization.>

Yes it is, and hybridization is one way in which speciation can occur. But it is by no means the only way - see all the other examples I cited. For example:

<5.3.5 Sympatric Speciation in Drosophila melanogaster

In a series of papers (Rice 1985, Rice and Salt 1988 and Rice and Salt 1990) Rice and Salt presented experimental evidence for the possibility of sympatric speciation. They started from the premise that whenever organisms sort themselves into the environment first and then mate locally, individuals with the same habitat preferences will necessarily mate assortatively. They established a stock population of D. melanogaster with flies collected in an orchard near Davis, California. Pupae from the culture were placed into a habitat maze. Newly emerged flies had to negotiate the maze to find food. The maze simulated several environmental gradients simultaneously. The flies had to make three choices of which way to go. The first was between light and dark (phototaxis). The second was between up and down (geotaxis). The last was between the scent of acetaldehyde and the scent of ethanol (chemotaxis). This divided the flies among eight habitats. The flies were further divided by the time of day of emergence. In total the flies were divided among 24 spatio-temporal habitats.

They next cultured two strains of flies that had chosen opposite habitats. One strain emerged early, flew upward and was attracted to dark and acetaldehyde. The other emerged late, flew downward and was attracted to light and ethanol. Pupae from these two strains were placed together in the maze. They were allowed to mate at the food site and were collected. Eye color differences between the strains allowed Rice and Salt to distinguish between the two strains. A selective penalty was imposed on flies that switched habitats. Females that switched habitats were destroyed. None of their gametes passed into the next generation. Males that switched habitats received no penalty. After 25 generations of this mating tests showed reproductive isolation between the two strains. Habitat specialization was also produced.

They next repeated the experiment without the penalty against habitat switching. The result was the same -- reproductive isolation was produced. They argued that a switching penalty is not necessary to produce reproductive isolation. Their results, they stated, show the possibility of sympatric speciation.>

This is a very clear example of reproductive isolation occurring purely as a result of exposure to different environments.

<Again, how do fish mate with frogs etc.>

They don't, why should they?

Mar-12-10  The Chess Express: <whatthefat> I've looked at your links and the examples you quoted and they are all examples of hybridization and sympatric speciation. How do such examples explain how we went from a fish to a human? In both cases the species have to be closely related in order for them to breed. According to the evolutionary theory of our origins their were not even any land animals around when the first marine life were created.
Mar-12-10  The Chess Express: What I asked for were examples where a species has become a totally different species without breeding with a different species. As far as I know there are no such examples.
Mar-12-10  whatthefat: <The Chess Express: I've looked at your links and the examples you quoted and they are all examples of hybridization and sympatric speciation.

What I asked for were examples where a species has become a totally different species without breeding with a different species. As far as I know there are no such examples.>

That's exactly what sympatric speciation is.

<How do such examples explain how we went from a fish to a human?>

Via a series of many such events. If you accept speciation, then I don't see the difficulty in understanding that argument.

Mar-12-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan> <I am open to suggestions as to what would be the proper way for a person to disagree with a group they consider innately dishonest and biased.>

Well, that's good. :-)

First, I would say one should be as absolutely certain as possible that the other party is really dishonest and biased. I would think that this is especially true of a Christian, who sees himself as a humble truth-seeker and a lover of justice who would never want to be guilty of making false accusations.

Also, when dealing with a 'group', you need to be sure that you are not attributing the wrong-doings of a few to the whole lot.

Finally, you need to recognize that the other party might be perfectly honest, even if you strongly believe they've reached the wrong conclusions. They might have perfectly legitimate reasons for their belief.

I gave you the example of visible stars that are millions of miles away. I think you might agree (somewhat) that this alone could legitimately lead one to believe the universe must be at least millions of years old *even if* the universe were young, as you believe. You believe yourself that the young universe was created with the appearance of age, so is someone else dishonest if they reject the young universe idea based on appearances?

< Likewise, might I in fact be completely unbiased and not agenda driven here?>

Well, bias is a tricky thing. We must step back from the issues we battle over and first try to decide how bias can be detected.

Frankly, I think that everyone has some bias, but the most unbiased people are those who admit that they have bias and go to great effort to eliminate that bias.

Science students are taught early that bias (both intentional and unintentional) is a bad thing that will hold them back from the truth they are seeking. They are given many examples of such bias and they learn how best to recognize it and minimize it.

Religion, on the other hand, in inherently biased (which does not imply that all religions are false).

This is demonstrated by the fact that adherents to all the various religions are adamant that their particular religion is (or would be if not for 'dishonest' scientists) supported by science.

Muslims, for example, are quite happy with the old universe theory of science. They will say science thus supports Islam -- and they don't mind using it to show that the young universe idea exemplifies Christian bias.

On the other hand, Muslim apologists will try to contrive "scientific evidence" to support claims of their holy book, the Quran. For example, I seen them go to great lengths to show that mountains are like pegs that stabilize the earth, because the Quran says so. Unfortunately, this idea disagrees with the science of plate tectonics (which says that mountains are in fact the most unstable places). The Christian can look at this and see bias on the Muslim side.

You can find Hindu sites that claim the agreement between ancient Hindu scriptures and the distance to the Sun and Moon.

Question: Are these adherents of various religions all seeking the unbiased truth -- which just *happens* to agree with their holy scriptures? I think not. I think it quite obviously suggests bias.

And yet, it rare when religious bias is recognized from within that religion. Why? Because to admit bias is to admit the potential for error, and a potential for error is incompatible with their belief that their scripture (or their interpretation thereof) is infallible. Thus, in religion there is tremendous pressure to remain biased AND refuse to admit bias.

Bias is also evidenced by the examples of perfectly legitimate science opposed by religion for centuries -- especially in the wake of the greatest discoveries. To various degrees, Copernicus, Dominis, Galileo, Descartes, Newton, Kepler, Halley, Darwin, and others have faced unjust religious opposition because they dared to bring forth ideas that disagreed with the Biblical interpretation of the day.

For the older cases (like heliocentrism, orbit of comets, and understanding of rainbows) the church will admit that the science was legitimate, and that the church was wrong. Unfortunately, in this context, they refer only to their biased adherents of the past. They still can't accept that bias might apply to the modern church. But in fact, religious bias and the reasons behind it haven't changed at all.

Mar-12-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <YouRang> I see no reason to dissect an affirmation of mostly philosophical viewpoint, so I will just thank you for your reply. I agree with some of it, disagree with some of it and am amused by how much I agree with this point, which I've made in the past, almost verbatim:

<the most unbiased people are those who admit that they have bias and go to great effort to eliminate that bias. >

Mar-12-10  PinnedPiece: <YouRang: You believe yourself that the young universe was created with the appearance of age, so is someone else dishonest if they reject the young universe idea based on appearances? >

An even more difficult issue for me--not even considering human culture or differences in religious thinking--is why would an entity we would call God want to play such a trick on clever sentient beings? Make the most ingenious problem solvers of the species furthest advanced intelligence--make them into fools? When clearly an all-powerful being could create a legitimately old universe as well as a "young" universe.

The job description of God--and the point of creation--makes no sense at all if the goal is to fool beings using their intellectual skills, and technological creativity.

Put the whole issue onto another planet. Imagine a clever species there correctly interpreting the laws of space, time the universe and everything, only for it to be a vast cosmic joke played by their creator.

What would be the point of the exercise? To separate the cleverest out for condemnation?

If the God in question could care less about the sapient species brought into existence, then the young Universe theory makes a lot more sense.

.

Mar-12-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <<the breakdown of hydrogen into helium>

I just noticed this. I should have used the term "converstion".

Mar-12-10  YouRang: <PinnedPiece><An even more difficult issue for me--not even considering human culture or differences in religious thinking--is why would an entity we would call God want to play such a trick on clever sentient beings?>

I suppose that if God did create this vast complex universe, then He is WAY beyond my comprehension, and I would be be no position to question His motives.

And if He gave me a summary of the whole creation process in just a few sentences, I would not assume that my feeble interpretation of them suddenly puts creation within my comprehension.

I certainly wouldn't consider my feeble interpretation of those sentences to be grounds for going to battle with scientists who are doing their best to understand the universe based on observation.

Mar-12-10  The Chess Express: <whatthefat> I've done some research on the William Rice and G.W. Salt experiment since that seems to be the best example. As it turns out they managed to achieve reproductive isolation not because the flies were incapable of breeding, but because they chose to breed only with the flies in their habitat. They mated only within the areas they preferred, and so did not mate with flies that preferred the other areas. I'm really not sure if this is enough to distinguish them as a seperate species.

An example I could give is that the people of the east and the west were separated from each other for many thousands of years. The people of Fiji were separated from the Eskimos for many thousands of years. In both cases I'm pretty sure that breeding is possible if you put them together.

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