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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-11-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 17 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Oct-17-06  RookFile: Well, personally, I'd rather play Bg5 and then later play a move like Qd2 in reply to ....Re8 because now there is a specific reason on the chessboard to do so, and not a ghost.
Oct-17-06  monad: If we are to accept the assumption that
Black will play

17....Qd7 18.? ..Re8, ( in other words Re8 after anything we play,) then we could return to the sequence

17....Re8 18.Bb6 Qd7 19.Qd2 *

by now playing 17....Qd7 18.Qd2 Re8 19.Bb6 *

I am wondering if Black shares the opinion that this would have been a safe and fairly profitable line for us, and is trying to steer us away from it by changing the move order.

Oct-17-06  Dionyseus: Analysis by Deep Junior 10:
18...Rfe8 19.Bb6 Nd5 20.Nxd5 Bxd5 21.Nd4 Bd8 22.Qh6 Qe7 23.Bxd8 Raxd8 24.Nc2 Qe2 25.Rf2 Qxd3 26.f6 ² (0.59) Depth: 22 00:07:20 1983mN
Oct-17-06  Dionyseus: Analysis by Loop 10.32f after 18.Qd2 Rfe8:

19.Nd4 Ng4 20.Kh1 d5 21.Bg5 Bc5 22.Nxc6 bxc6 23.d4 Be7 24.f6 Bd6 25.h3 Nh2 ² (0.26) Depth: 18 00:11:16 1028mN

Oct-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <Dionyseus> I put your DJ 10 one on the main page. Hope you don't mind.
Oct-17-06  Dionyseus: Interesting weakness displayed by Loop 10.32f. I was playing along its line and it thought that its own suggestion of 24...Bd6 and 25...Nh2 was weak.

Oct-17-06  Dionyseus: <Analysis by Deep Junior 10: 18...Rfe8 19.Bb6 Nd5 20.Nxd5 Bxd5 21.Nd4 Bd8 22.Qh6 Qe7 23.Bxd8 Raxd8 24.Nc2 Qe2 25.Rf2 Qxd3 26.f6 ² (0.59) Depth: 22 00:07:20 1983mN >

Rybka 2.1o thinks this line is rubbish. Instead of 21...Bd8, Rybka says black should play Rac8, and after 22.f6 Bf8 Rybka thinks black has a tiny advantage:


click for larger view

Analysis by Rybka 2.1o mp 32-bit:
23.h3 h5 24.Rae1 Rxe1 25.Rxe1 Re8 26.Rc1 Re5 27.Rc7 Qe8 28.Kf2 h4 29.Kf1 Rh5 = (-0.04) Depth: 19 00:02:39 34193kN

Oct-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <Dionyseus> Try 18...Rfe8 19.Bb6 Nd5 20.Bd4
Oct-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  kwgurge: Any move here that leads or contributes to exchanging pieces helps black more than white. The analysis I have seen <RandomVisitor> <Thorsson> and <Monad> indicates that both Nd4 and Bg5 (which tend to transpose anyway) both make it easier for piece trades to occur. Nd4 serves no current purpose. We do not want to trade it for the c6B yet and black is not going to take the f5 pawn so it defends a pawn which doesn't need defending.

It's too early to tell if the b3N or the DSB is better on d4 and either one going there now impedes the other. It's also too early to tell where the a-rook is best placed.

If we are still playing for a win and not a draw, we need to create threats against the dark squares around black's king and black currently has no threats we need to counter other than the threat of trading pieces and opening up his position.

I think that I like the DSB better on d4 later. It is more threatening there than on h6,g5 or b6 and it can't be easily dislodged other than by black giving up his DSB. On d4 the DSB adds pressure along with the f1 rook on f6 and if the f6N moves the DSB rakes the a1-h8 diagonal. If we can later get the Q to h6 the DSB on d4 will be devastating. I would prefer to aim for this.

I also agree with <Nasruddin Hodja> that we shouldn't allow closing the f-file with g5.

Therefore, I favor Qd2 here. On d2 the Q is not susceptible to threats from Rfe8 or Nd5/xc3 and it eyes h6 if our DSB goes to d4 and the black N leaves f6. The Q on d2 also prevents g5 closing the f-file if our DSB moves.

Those of us who feel that Nd4 is only 3rd or 4th best here need to coallesce quickly behind something like Qd2 (which preserves the options to play other favored moves) before Nd4 runs away with the voting.

Oct-17-06  RandomVisitor: <monad>I agree that we can transpose into the "monad trap" 18.Qd2 Rfe8 19.Bb6!?. Black is forced to play 19...Nd5, and after we play 20.Bd4 he is forced to play 20...gxf5.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to convince others of this.

Oct-17-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  kwgurge: <RV> Step one is to convince them to play 18. Qd2 not Nd4. We need an all out effort to accomplish this.
Oct-18-06  Dionyseus: <Tabanus> <<Dionyseus> Try 18...Rfe8 19.Bb6 Nd5 20.Bd4>

If we're going to put our Bishop on d4, what's the purpose of Bb6? Black gets his knight safely placed on the center, I think this line is no good.

Oct-18-06  jepflast: What does anyone have in reply to 18. Qd2 Ng4? That move by black seems to spoil the party.
Oct-18-06  noctiferus: <OhiochessFan>
Shredder10 main lines of deep analysis 16 ply on 18.Qd2

line A.
18...Ng4 19.Bb6 Rae8 20.h3 Nf6 21 Be3 Rc8 22.Bg5 Bd8 23. Nd4 Nh5 24 Rae1 Re8 +0.88

line A1.
19 Bd4 Rfe8 20 Bf4 g5 21 Qe2 Nh6 22 Bd2 Rfe8 23 Qe6+ Kg7 24. Nd4 Bd8 +0.46

line B.
18...Rfe8 19 Bb6 Nd5 20 Bd4 gxf5 21 Rae1 f6 22 Na1 Bf8 23 Nxd5 Bxd5 24 Bxf6 Rxe1 +0.71

Other lines will be evaluated without deep analysis tool.

Oct-18-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <Dionyseus> <If we're going to put our Bishop on d4, what's the purpose of Bb6? Black gets his knight safely placed on the center, I think this line is no good.> I see you have not tried it. Do it! After 18.Qd2 Rfe8 19.Bb6 Nd5 20.Bd4 it is BLACK's turn to move - the trap referred to two posts before yours.
Oct-18-06  noctiferus: <OhiochessFan>
sorry, a misprint!
in line A1
19 Bd4 Rfe2 must be read
19 Bg5 f6
Oct-18-06  Wassily: Rfe8 may be the best response to Bg5, but I don't know if this is also the case for Qd2.
Oct-18-06  Wassily: Alright <jepflast>, I am starting to believe 18. Qd2 Ng4! is a little dubious for white. That knight is very well placed and will require either a rook lift or h3 for defense. Maybe Nd4 with the <intention> of swapping off the light bishop. Then Qf3 is playable.
Oct-18-06  RandomVisitor: Analysis on my forum of 18.Qd2 Rfe8 19.Bb6!?
Oct-18-06  noctiferus: <random visitor>
Shredde10 (16 ply) too thinks this is the best white line after 18...Rfe8,with continuation 21 Rae1 f6 22 Na1 Bf8 23 Nxd5 Bxd5 24 Bxf6 Rxe1 +0.71
Oct-18-06  jepflast: OK, I was complaining about Ng4, but after some investigation I think this will be satifactory for White. One line is given by noctiferus above, except I have 21...Kh8 22. Nd4 Rg8 23.Rae1 gxf5 24.Nxc6 bxc6. Or black can try 19...Rfe8 20. h3 Ne5 21.f6 Bf8 22.Be3.

One word of caution, however: with these (likely) improvements, white is not ahead by 0.88 anymore as in noctiferus's line. It's only 0.3 to 0.5.

Oct-18-06  noctiferus: Analysis by Shredder10 18 ply after

1. ² (0.39) 18...Ng4 19.Bb6 Bf6 20.h3 Ne5 21.Nd4 Qe7 22.Nxc6 bxc6 23.Ne4 c5 24.fxg6 fxg6 25.b4 Nd7

2. ² (0.61) 18...Rfe8 19.Bg5

3. ± (0.85) 18...Rac8 19.Bg5 Nh5 20.d4 Bxg5 21.Qxg5 f6 22.Qh6 Qg7 23.Qd2 gxf5 24.d5 Bd7 25.Qe2 Qf7 26.Rae1 Rfe8 27.Qd2

4. ± (0.83) 18...Nh5 19.Nd4 d5 20.Nxc6 Qxc6 21.Bh6 Rfe8 22.fxg6 fxg6 23.Qf2 Qf6 24.Nxd5 Qxf2+ 25.Kxf2 Rad8 26.Nxe7+

5. ± (0.89) 18...Rfc8 19.Bg5 Ng4 20.Qf4 f6 21.Qxg4 fxg5 22.Nd4 Rf8 23.Rae1 Rf7 24.Qh3

I'm trying to go deeper into 18...Ng4.

Oct-18-06  noctiferus: <jepflast>
true, Shredder has always an overoptimistic evaluation scale
Oct-18-06  noctiferus: Analysis by Shredder 10 after 18.Qd2 Ng4 (18 plycount starting after Ng4):

1. (+0.55): 19.Bg5 f6 20.Bf4 g5 (19...d5 20.Bxe7 Qxe7(+0.65)) (19...b5 20.axb6

Bd8(0.91)) (19...Rfc8 20.Qf4 f6(+1.04))

2. (+0.54): 19.Bb6 Rae8 20.h3 (19...Bf6 20.Nd4 Bg7 (+0.56)) (19...Rfe8 20.Nd4

Ne5 (+0.63))

3. (+0.09): 19.Bd4 gxf5 20.Rae1 (19...Rfe8 20.Bb6 h6(+0.10))

Oct-18-06  twinlark: Here's some lines that my calculator produced for 18.Qd2 after leaving it switched on all day (19 hours and 21 ply) ro complement the lines already produced:

1. (0.58): 18...Ng4 19.Bb6 Bf6 20.Nd4 Bg7 21.Qf4 Nf6 22.Nxc6 bxc6 23.Qh4 Rb8


click for larger view

I'm struck by the prolonged fianchetto process, the transfer of the Queen to the King side from d2 and the liquidation of the Black's Queen Bishop on move 22.

2. ± (0.76): 18...Rfe8 19.Bg5 Nh5 20.Nd4 d5 21.Bxe7 Qxe7 22.Nc2 Qh4 23.d4 Rac8 24.fxg6 fxg6


click for larger view

3. ± (0.84): 18...Rac8 19.Bg5 Ng4 20.f6 Bd8 21.Nd4 b5 22.Nxc6 Qxc6 23.Qf4


click for larger view

4. ± (0.88): 18...Nh5 19.Nd4 Rfe8 20.Nxc6


click for larger view

5. ± (0.89): 18...Nd5 19.Bh6 Rfe8 20.Nd4 Bf6 21.Nxc6 Qxc6 22.d4 Bd8 23.Ra3 Nf6 24.Bg5


click for larger view

Treat the ratings as optimistic.

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