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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-09-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

Things To Look At:
1. Game Collection: 1975 World Junior chess championship
2. Ongoing edits Vladimir Ostrogsky
3. Bio Adolf Zytogorski
4. Complete the Olympiad
5. Bio Lorenz Maximilian Drabke

7. Baden-Baden (1870)

11. Karl Mayet
12. Smbat Lputian

Pi Day
rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

Pun Index Game Collection: Game of the Day & Puzzle of the Day Collections

>> Click here to see OhioChessFan's game collections.

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49344 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 171 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jun-21-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan><I was using your logic, was replying to your scenario as stated. Don't accuse me of being illogical when replying in a consistent manner to the illogic you posted. If you want to restate the scenario, feel free.>

I'll accept that you were using my "scenario", but how is that my logic? The train of thought leading to your opposing conclusion belongs to you alone.

BTW, if you think I posted something illogical, why not say directly what it was and explain what makes you think it is illogical? It would save a great deal of time spent on efforts to clarify positions.

Anyway, my "scenario" is a scientist who says that miracles (i.e. events that violate laws of nature) did not happen because he/she believes it is impossible to violate natural laws. My "logic" is that this scientist does not deserve to be accused of dishonesty.

This is consistent with the portion of my earlier post that you quoted:

<YouRang: But if someone doesn't believe they [miracles] really happened on the grounds that they [miracles] violate natural laws, and are therefore impossible, I would not call that person a liar.>

You stated that you were "bothered" by this claim and proceeded to present *your* "logic": A clumsy attempt to take the scientist's <miracles are impossible> position and ultimately equate it with the false <no truth exists if it is only affirmed by logic or historical evidence or eyewitness testimony> position, so that you could conclude that the scientist is dishonest.

Jun-21-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <YouRang: Anyway, my "scenario" is a scientist who says that miracles (i.e. events that violate laws of nature) did not happen because he/she believes it is impossible to violate natural laws.>

That means, de facto, he will reject out of hand, without consideration, the testimony of 1000 witnesses to just such an event. That is intellectually dishonest. Period.

Travelling back down the same road, if you were the God of the Bible and you wanted to prove your existence to that scientist, how exactly would you go about it?

Jun-21-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan> <And you're the same person who just accused me of being fascinatingly illogical? Please cite a series of credible witnesses to leprechauns. Please name those people who died in their refusal to deny the existence of leprechauns.>

~lol~

I am not arguing that there is credible support for leprechauns. I am trying to get you to understand this issue from a persepective quite different from your own -- specifically, the persepective of a person who was not raised in an environment where any reason was given to regard the Bible as truth. Let's call this person Fred.

Fred matured and developed a set of beliefs drawn from his own (perhaps nonreligious) upbringing and his own observations of the world and of nature. He may quite rationally conclude that miracles are impossible.

Fred cannot be expected to simply accept the Bible witnesses as credible. In fact, he might quickly conclude that those witnesses are NOT credible just because they testify to miracles! If you were a juror in a courtroom, and some fellow came forth as a witness and testified to a miracle, would you think he was credible?

My point is that this Fred may have come to the belief that miracles are impossible through honest reasoning, and this the accusation of dishonesty is unwarranted. From *his* perspective, miracles, magic, ghosts, fairies, Santa Claus, and even leprechauns are not that much different. Some of these may seem sillier than others, but to Fred they all dubious and unconfirmable ideas that should not be believed.

Somehow, I have a feeling that seeing issues from other persepectives is not something you're too good at...

Jun-21-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan><That means, de facto, he will reject out of hand, without consideration, the testimony of 1000 witnesses to just such an event. That is intellectually dishonest. Period.>

See my last post.

<Travelling back down the same road, if you were the God of the Bible and you wanted to prove your existence to that scientist, how exactly would you go about it?>

I would show up in his bedroom in the middle of the night with an entrance of lightning, thunder, smoke, trumpets and scare the bejeepers out of him. Then I would inform him that I was God.

Maybe that's why I didn't get to be God. :-\

Jun-21-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <YouRang: I would show up in his bedroom in the middle of the night with an entrance of lightning, thunder, smoke, trumpets and scare the bejeepers out of him. Then I would inform him that I was God. >

He had a nightmare. Such visions are impossible because they violate natural law. Try again.

Jun-21-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <If you were a juror in a courtroom, and some fellow came forth as a witness and testified to a miracle, would you think he was credible?>

I would expect his credibility to be examined and challenged. Thereupon I'd draw a conclusion.

Jun-21-10  Shams: <OCF><That means, de facto, he will reject out of hand, without consideration, the testimony of 1000 witnesses to just such an event. That is intellectually dishonest. Period.>

What if the 1000 witnesses are scientists, and the event they witness is severe climate change?

Jun-22-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan: <YouRang: I would show up in his bedroom in the middle of the night with an entrance of lightning, thunder, smoke, trumpets and scare the bejeepers out of him. Then I would inform him that I was God. >

He had a nightmare. Such visions are impossible because they violate natural law. Try again.>

This is a silly point to be quibbling over, but are you saying that I (as God) can't do miracles, or are you saying that the scientist wouldn't believe it was a miracle?

Jun-22-10  cormier: http://www.usccb.org/nab/062210.shtml
Jun-22-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Shams> I would like to examine them and their claims so much as is possible in whatever field of human endeavour as I could.
Jun-22-10  gus inn: And while we examine them the poles might be melting...
Jun-22-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <YouRang: This is a silly point to be quibbling over, but are you saying that I (as God) can't do miracles, or are you saying that the scientist wouldn't believe it was a miracle?>

The scientist wouldn't believe it was a miracle. What other means would God have to prove Himself to man? Then it's safe to conclude the scientist has a prioried out the possibility that God exists. And amazingly enough, that is the position of many scientists. Funny how that works out. It's an innately intellectually dishonest position.

Jun-22-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <gus> do you agree that the earth is on such a fragile basis, that the miniscule difference men can make could be the difference between the earth's life and death? There are some huge implications of that position.
Jun-22-10  gus inn: <OhioChessFan> My main point is that we first must take action and let the benefit of the doubt go to mother earth and the future for our kids and so on.

And that mankind has something to do we the unbalance and hence must take responsibility and trying to restore the damage.

God or not god is not the first issue in the light of 1:If there is a god , he/she needs some help.

Same goes for 2: If there is no god.

And God should never be an excuse for playing dice with the planet.

Jun-22-10  gus inn: * * Not that I dont want people to worship god on a personal level.Which I do find is a beautiful thing.

But I dont like to see 100 years ahead
and realize that another civilisations has made a campainmovie about the downfall of our culture-where the movies title is "Men who stared at bibles".

Jun-22-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <gus: My main point is that we first must take action and let the benefit of the doubt go to mother earth and the future for our kids and so on. >

So if there's a one in a billion chance taking action might help, we should do it? Is there a one in a billion chance they are just as wrong as they were in their claims of global cooling 40 years ago? Or their claims of the impending ecological devasation after the Gulf War oil well fires? Their track record is lacking. I think the science is lacking and it's a barely disguised attempt at Leftism.

Jun-22-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <gus: But I dont like to see 100 years ahead and realize that another civilisations has made a campainmovie about the downfall of our culture-where the movies title is "Men who stared at bibles". >

I don't like looking 100 years ahead and realize the downfall of our culture where a movie is entitled "Men Who Rejected the Bible". I think that's far more likely than from global warming. In any case, it's all about truth. Are the witnesses credible or not?

Jun-22-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan: <YouRang: This is a silly point to be quibbling over, but are you saying that I (as God) can't do miracles, or are you saying that the scientist wouldn't believe it was a miracle?>

The scientist wouldn't believe it was a miracle.>

When did I say that the scientist wouldn't believe a miracle if he saw one himself?

Jun-22-10  YouRang: <<YouRang: If you were a juror in a courtroom, and some fellow came forth as a witness and testified to a miracle, would you think he was credible?>

OCF: I would expect his credibility to be examined and challenged. Thereupon I'd draw a conclusion.>

~~~~

Prosecutor: Did you see your friend Jimmy drive his car and strike the old man in the crosswalk?

Witness: Yes, but it wasn't Jimmy's fault. He was just driving along an empty street, and right when he got to the crosswalk, this old man suddenly materialized out of nowhere! Jimmy couldn't stop in time.

Juror OCF: Wow, this is a tough case. I hope they can examine and challenge the credibility of this witness so I can draw a conclusion...

Jun-22-10  achieve: <OhioChessFan: <gus: But I dont like to see 100 years ahead and realize that another civilisations has made a campainmovie about the downfall of our culture-where the movies title is "Men who stared at bibles". >

I don't like looking 100 years ahead and realize the downfall of our culture where a movie is entitled "Men Who Rejected the Bible".>

The whole viewpoint of looking back from 100 yrs ahead is - to overstate it a tad - a sign of severe uncertainty, unnecessary weakness, low confidence, confusion, and dare I say pathetic as well as fatalistic as well as utterly weak; you either get to work and conjure up the nerve to find out what is actually "known", as in fact, knowledge, beyond dispute, and take your argument from there... If you even come close to throwing in the towel as a consequence of the issue being overwhelming and beyond your reach at the moment, then work on reading up on some selected literature from both sides of the fence, and the third one as well, which hasn't even been mentioned here yet, but lots of research among evolutionary Biology points quite strongly in a certain direction...

Anyhoo, until then - put forward some testable material, name man and horse as we say in dutch, get specific, and where hypothesis takes over from theory, and assumption takes over from hypothesis, and wild guesses from hypotheses, step back and take it from there, and find out anew; do not let what has been persuasive to you in the past persuade you now, but challenge it, out of curiosity, and out of an ongoing irrepressible wish, an urge, to get to know the truth, ie at least move closer to it.

As the Bible and several other superior literature demand from us.

Jun-22-10  playground player: <YouRang> "What Scripturally prohibits evolution?" you ask. Obviously the topic does not come up by name, so I have to answer indirectly, if at all. Again, I repeat that I would not throw anybody out of any church for believing that evolution is true. To me that's just believing in something that isn't true--like your leprechauns.

The Bible teaches clearly that God is the Creator of the universe; that He is sovereign in His power and perfect in His wisdom; that we are not to be "conformed to this world"; that we are not to be yoked to unbelievers--

But I don't reject evolution on account of those religious principles, important as they are. My rejection of evolution never reaches that high a level. I simply do not believe that it explains nature as we see it.

Meanwhile, you say you believe in the miracles reported in the Bible--and all you have for that is the testimony of witnesses.

If you are arguing that that's insufficient for purposes of proclaiming the Gospel, then maybe we have a fruitful discussion.

Jun-22-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <When did I say that the scientist wouldn't believe a miracle if he saw one himself? >

When you had the scientist affirm nothing could happen that violates natural law. If you meant he'll believe nothing that violates natural law unless he sees it himself, I can work with that.

Jun-22-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Prosecutor: Did you see your friend Jimmy drive his car and strike the old man in the crosswalk?

Witness: Yes, but it wasn't Jimmy's fault. He was just driving along an empty street, and right when he got to the crosswalk, this old man suddenly materialized out of nowhere! Jimmy couldn't stop in time.

Juror OCF: Wow, this is a tough case. I hope they can examine and challenge the credibility of this witness so I can draw a conclusion...>

If the prosecutor had made a reasonable decision to bring forth that witness, I think that would be a proper response on my part. Acheive makes some good points (I know, because I've made them myself) about wild guesses/hypotheses/assumptions/etc It is very difficult to not presume what I believe is predicated on educated guesses and the other guy believes what he does based on crazy assumptions. I think reasonable people can find a lot of common ground though.

Jun-22-10  YouRang: <playground player><But I don't reject evolution on account of those religious principles, important as they are. My rejection of evolution never reaches that high a level. I simply do not believe that it explains nature as we see it.>

Fair enough. Up to this point I thought you were rejecting it on religious principles. If you choose not to believe it and don't accuse people who do believe it of dishonesty, then I have no great motivation to dispute the matter with you. We disagree about evolution, but honest people can disagree.

<Meanwhile, you say you believe in the miracles reported in the Bible--and all you have for that is the testimony of witnesses.>

Since you say <you say>, I sense the need to clarify my role in this discussion:

I have more or less been acting as a defense lawyer for scientists and others who have been accused of dishonesty for having the beliefs that they hold. As such, I argue from *their* perspective, which isn't necessarily mine. So, while I personally accept the miracles of the Bible, I also accept that others may have honest and sensible reasons for not disbelieving that they happened. That has been the point of my recent comments concerning miracles.

As to my own reasons for accepting miracles, I do not say that "all I have for that is the testimony of witnesses". I think there is more to it than that.

<If you are arguing that that's insufficient for purposes of proclaiming the Gospel, then maybe we have a fruitful discussion.>

Maybe so. Suppose you were an unbeliever and someone approached you with an argument something like: "You should believe in my religion! We know it's true because 2000 years ago, some guys wrote that the founder of my religion performed miracles!". Would you be impressed? I wouldn't.

Jun-22-10  YouRang: <<YouRang: When did I say that the scientist wouldn't believe a miracle if he saw one himself? >

OCF: When you had the scientist affirm nothing could happen that violates natural law. If you meant he'll believe nothing that violates natural law unless he sees it himself, I can work with that.>

I was speaking of a scientists who didn't believe in the miracles of the Bible (I think this started with the feeding of 5000 miracle) because he believes, based on all that science has observed and studied, that the natural laws are unbreakable and hence miracles are impossible. If he sees direct evidence that natural laws can be broken, then he will have reason to reconsider.

So, you can work with that (although I don't see how a hypothetical about me being God can go very far).

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