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Jan-04-12
 | | lostemperor: I dont think the pairings makes much difference. A good pairing can work both ways, positive or negative. Ok our Hall of Fame leader drew first blood with the TataSteel 2012 predictions. Who is next?! :) |
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Jan-04-12
| | lostemperor: Just to go back to the Mayan calendar for a moment, there may be more to it, since there is an article in my todays paper of a Dutch Peter Toonen. Assuming that he is an expert and telling the facts, at least one Mayan calendar truly stops at December 21 2012. Even more astonishing is that on 11 minutes past 11 that day, probably CET (GMT+1) sun, earth are on one line in the center of our galaxy what is a unbelievable coincidence (did the Mayan knew this)?! Personally I don't believe a doomsday will occur anytime soon, what is tricky given the fact that human kind have a way of self-destructing if you just look at history. I suppose things could get worse first before it gets better however and a new era begin. Just wait and see :) |
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| Jan-04-12 | | dakgootje: <there is an article in my todays paper of a Dutch Peter Toonen. Assuming that he is an expert and telling the facts> As opposed to.. trying to market himself and sell his books? Moreover, it is impossible to state where the milky-way stops - there is no clearcut boundary. Therefore, you can only approximate a bit - when you would approximately align to the center. Aside of that - even if it were true - there is no indication the Mayas cared for the Milky Way, as there is no glyph known that represents it. |
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Jan-04-12
 | | Penguincw: < lostemperor: I dont think the pairings makes much difference. A good pairing can work both ways, positive or negative. Ok our Hall of Fame leader drew first blood with the TataSteel 2012 predictions. Who is next?! :) > It works. If you know who's playing with who, then it will be easier to predict. For instance, as with last years Amber, Carlsen and Topalov faced. With white, Carlsen drew blood. With black, it was drawn. 1/2 a point can make a difference. Just ask Nakamura after winning Tata. That's just what I'm thinking. |
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Jan-04-12
| | lostemperor: <dakgootje> on closer look, Peter Toonen is maybe an expert on Mayan culture but not on astrologie. So we need a check on his claims about the position of the sun before any significant conclusions can be drawn, other than commercial ones! He claims that on December 21 the sun is on the center of the galaxy as much as possibly can. Now we need independent sources if there is a unique position of the sun on December 21 or nothing can be drawn from his story! Any insights welcome. It does seem however that all 17 Mayan calendar points to December 21. |
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Jan-04-12
| | lostemperor: <Peguincw> yes indeed pairings could matter a lot. But it could work both ways. I only remember last Tal memorial, Carlsen had black against all rating favourites. But is that a bad thing or a good thing for his standings? It can be good if he draws most of his black ganmes and win his white games against lower ranked players. If he had white against the higher rated players he may also be forced to a draw have much more difficulties winning with black against lower rated players. Who knows? So it can work both ways and it is for you to decide. That is why we have a prediction contest what is the fun of it! Of course if you think you wait for the pairings to come out that is fine and you can always change your prediciton if it on time :) |
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Jan-04-12
| | lostemperor: Tatasteel starts on January 13, I will also make a ranking of most unorthodox predictors of predictions that differs most from the rating expectation! :) |
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Jan-04-12
| | Penguincw: < lostemperor >
Ok. I plan to wait for Reggio Emilia to finish and the correct pairings to come out first. At LCC in the bookie game, I had Kramnik and Carlsen on top with Naka behind. Had I used that data, I could've won 2.5K! P.S. Are you talking to me or < Peguincw>? |
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Jan-05-12
| | lostemperor: Sorry <Penguincw>, with the speed of light I read and letters I miss :) |
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Jan-05-12
 | | WannaBe: <lostemperor> I better get mine in before I forgot to enter again. =) 1. Topalov
2. Carlsen
3. Aronian
4. Kamsky
5. Karjakin
6. Nakamura
7. van Wely
8. Ivanchuk
9. Gashimov
10. Radjabov
11. Gelfand
12. Caruana
13. Giri
14. Navara |
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Jan-05-12
| | lostemperor: So here the standings according <ELO> the January ratings (it will change a bit after Reggio Emilia but I likely not count that). The predictor that differs most from this standings (or pehaps from the average predictions) will get the prize of ♗ <BOLDEST PREDICTOR> ♗. 1. Carlsen 2835
2. Aronian 2807
3. Radjabov 2773
3. Topalov 2770
3. Karjakin 2769
3. Ivanchuk 2766
3. Gashimov 2761
3. Nakamura 2759
9. Gelfand 2739
9. Caruana 2736
9. Kamsky 2732
12. Giri 2714
12. Navara 2712
14. van Wely 2692
The rating difference among standings 3-8 and 9-11 are minimal so I put them with the same rankings. I hope this is correct? |
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Jan-05-12
| | Penguincw: < lostemperor: Sorry <Penguincw>, with the speed of light I read and letters I miss :) > Ok good. :) Still no pairings though. If it starts coming out too late, I'll just make a bunch of predictions. |
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Jan-05-12
| | lostemperor: The pairings mostly comes out only one day before the tournament. So that is next week Friday! |
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Jan-05-12
| | lostemperor: I now let an engine run over 13,000 games of the Tatasteel participants. Perhaps by tomorrow it will have the standings ready for my predictions :) |
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Jan-05-12
| | Penguincw: < lostemperor:The pairings mostly comes out...So that is next week Friday. > Then my prédictions will come out mostly Friday next week (!). |
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Jan-05-12
| | Penguincw: < lostemperor >
! |
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Jan-06-12
| | lostemperor: Well this is my conclusion for TataSteel 2012 after consulting the engines, along with some professional psycological profiling of the players, their life style, consistency, along with some useful tips from Dr. Oz(!) 1. Carlsen
2. Aronian
3. Karjakin
4. Radjabov
4. Topalov
4. Kamsky
4. Gashimov
4. Giri
4. Caruana
4. Navara
11. Ivanchuk
12. Gelfand
12. Nakamura
14. Van Wely
In other words I don't have much clue on many and probably need more time! :) |
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Jan-06-12
| | Penguincw: Hmm. Using engines to predict the results! I thought this was a human only contest. |
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Jan-07-12
| | lostemperor: It would be something if we had a prediction engine. The fact is that I only look at pscycological and life factors foremost besides ratings of the players. I don't even play over any of the players' games for my predictions! :) |
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Jan-07-12
| | Penguincw: < lostemperor: ... I don't even play over any of the players' games for my predictions! :) > I try to play at every contest when I can. It increases my chances for medals. :) |
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Jan-08-12
| | lostemperor: If you wait for the pairings to come out, check YouRang chessforum. It will be one of the first to publish it, sometimes even before the official site! I don't hope everybody is waiting for the pairings to come out, though that is perfectly fine :) |
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Jan-08-12
| | Penguincw: I heard the official site is useless (I like to go back and read some posts). |
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Jan-10-12
 | | SwitchingQuylthulg: 1. Carlsen
2. Aronian
3. Karjakin
3. Radjabov
3. Topalov
3. Kamsky
3. Giri
3. Caruana
3. Ivanchuk
3. Nakamura
11. Gashimov
12. Gelfand
12. Navara
12. Van Wely |
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| Jan-11-12 | | wordfunph: 1. Carlsen
2. Karjakin
3. Aronian
4. Nakamura
5. Ivanchuk
6. Radjabov
7. Topalov
8. Gelfand
9. Giri
10. Kamsky
11. Caruana
12. Gashimov
13. Navara
14. Van Wely |
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Jan-11-12
| | lostemperor: The countdown begins .. 3 days before TataSteel tournament begins! This prediction contest is possible thanks to chessgames.com and as a service for all chessgames members, old and new comers, who like to join the excitement! |
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