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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Apr-18-22
♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>

Predict the final standings of tournaments!

TATASTELL CHESS MASTERS 2022
January 16
https://tatasteelchess.com/players/...

Format example to post your predictions

1. Carlsen
1. Caruana
3. Giri
4. Rapport
5. Mamedyarov
5. Duda
5. Karjakin
8. Vidit
9. Esipenko
10. Dubov
11. Shankland
12. Van Foreest
12. Grandelius
12. Praggnanandhaa

Good Luck!


♙♙

♙♙♙

♙♙


Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


♙♙

♙♙♙

♙♙


<HALL <OF> FAME>

WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖

~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~

♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

~~~~

♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

*may be incomplete

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


♙♙

♙♙♙

♙♙

>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7576 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Jan-31-22 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Thanks <chessmoron>! Also <Elvis> for inimitable reports! Very glad to do well here! Congratulations to the other champs <Pengo>, <Winky> and winners!
 
   Jan-31-22 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Thanks <Golden Executive>. Congrats to the winners. This wasn't one for safe bets :)
 
   Jan-31-22 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: TATA STEEL CHESS 2022 WINNERS: Gold (three Crown)* <sadosa> Silver <paavoh> and <Keyser Soze> Bronze <OhioChessFan> and <chessmoron> Congratulations!! *(for the still unfinished Hall of Fame one ♔, ♕, ♖ will be added)
 
   Jan-13-22 84th Tata Steel Masters (2022) (replies)
 
lostemperor: ♔ ANNOUNCEMENT♕♖: Join the Tata Steel Chess Prediction Contest at my forum starting January 15 13h GMT! User: lostemperor
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 276 OF 276 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Jan-23-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Huh?! <Penguincw> has a difficult time with his upside down predictions for now ;)
Jan-23-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Giri wins game vs Dubov by forfeit because the latter doesn't want to wear a mask after being in contact with someone with Covid but quick testing negatively himself! Could't they have Dubov play in a separate room or something?
Jan-23-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS ROUND 7 UPDATE<

Shankland-Carlsen 1/2
Mamedyarov-Praggnanandhaa 1-0
Karjakin-Rapport 1/2
Vidit-Grandelius 1-0
Caruana-Van Foreest 1/2
Dubov-Duda 1/2
Esipenko-Giri 0-1<

standings:
1. Carlsen
1. Mamedyarov
3. Vidit
3. Giri
5. Rapport
6. Esipenko
6. Karjakin
6. Caruana
6. VanForeest
10. Duda
10. Shankland
12. Dubov
13. Pragnanandhaa
14. Grandelius>
>
>

Jan-23-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ♔♕♖<PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER ROUND 7>

<ABSOLUTE RANKER>

Score,UserID
65,ELO
62,OhioChessFan
60,sadosa
54,paavoh
~~~~
53,lostemperor
51,WinKing
49,Keyser Soze
41,chessmoron
29,Messiah
22,Penguincw

<SQUARE RANKER>

Score,UserID
772,ELO
769,OhioChessFan
762,sadosa
694,lostemperor
~~~~
690,paavoh
682,WinKing
662,Keyser Soze
571,chessmoron
459,Messiah
243,Penguincw

<PAIR BETTING RANKER>

Earnings,UserID
$28.61,sadosa
$20.61,OhioChessFan
$8.37,Keyser Soze
~~~~
$-1.41,Messiah
$-1.89,lostemperor
$-8.71,chessmoron
$-9.25,WinKing
$-15.39,paavoh
$-20.93,Penguincw

Jan-23-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners

$9.00,Caruana-equal-Karjakin, sadosa

$9.00,Caruana-equal-VanForeest, chessmoron

$9.00,Mamedyarov-above-Dubov, sadosa

$9.00,Pragnanandhaa-above-Grandelius, Keyser Soze

$9.00,Rapport-above-Caruana, Penguincw

$9.00,Rapport-above-Dubov, sadosa

$9.00,Shankland-above-Dubov, Messiah

$9.00,Vidit-above-Caruana, Penguincw

$9.00,Vidit-above-Dubov, OhioChessFan

Jan-24-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Of course that was round 8 not 7 with last year's Gold Medalist <OhioChessFan> still leading the pack and <sadosa> tops the Pair Betting with 6 rounds to go!
Jan-27-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS ROUND 9 AND 10 UPDATE<

4 decisive games per round (upsets in round 10)!<

Round 9
Giri-Shankland 1-0
Duda-Esipenko 1/2
Van Foreest-Dubov 1/2
Grandelius-Caruana 0-1
Rapport-Vidit 1/2
Praggnanandhaa-Karjakin 0-1
Carlsen-Mamedyarov 1-0

Round 10

Shankland-Mamedyarov 1/2
Karjakin-Carlsen 1/2
Vidit-Praggnanandhaa 0-1
Caruana-Rapport 0-1
Dubov-Grandelius 0-1
Esipenko-Van Foreest 1-0
Giri - Duda 1/2<

standings:
1. Carlsen
2. Giri
3. Mamedyarov
3. Rapport
5. Vidit
5. Esipenko
5. Karjakin
8. Caruana
9. VanForeest
9. Duda
11. Shankland
12. Dubov
12. Pragnanandhaa
14. Grandelius>
>
>
>

Jan-27-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ♔♕♖<PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER ROUND 10>

<ABSOLUTE RANKER>

Score,UserID
67,ELO
63,sadosa
60,OhioChessFan
60,paavoh
~~~~
58,lostemperor
57,Keyser Soze
55,WinKing
41,chessmoron
26,Messiah
18,Penguincw

<SQUARE RANKER>

Score,UserID
797,ELO
797,sadosa
757,OhioChessFan
751,paavoh
~~~~
721,lostemperor
719,WinKing
716,Keyser Soze
566,chessmoron
427,Messiah
248,Penguincw

<PAIR BETTING RANKER>

Earnings,UserID
$27.13,sadosa
$12.45,OhioChessFan
$9.82,Keyser Soze
~~~~
$5.39,WinKing
$-0.45,paavoh
$-2.55,lostemperor
$-6.14,Messiah
$-18.98,Penguincw
$-26.69,chessmoron

Jan-27-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:
Payoff,Pair result,Winners

$9.00,Karjakin-above-Caruana, Penguincw

$9.00,Karjakin-equal-Vidit, WinKing

$9.00,Mamedyarov-above-Dubov, sadosa

$9.00,Mamedyarov-equal-Rapport, paavoh

$9.00,Pragnanandhaa-above-Grandelius, Keyser Soze

$9.00,Rapport-above-Caruana, Penguincw

$9.00,Rapport-above-Dubov, sadosa

$9.00,Shankland-above-Dubov, Messiah

$9.00,Vidit-above-Caruana, Penguincw

$9.00,Vidit-above-Dubov, OhioChessFan

Jan-27-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: I'm surprised I'm still in second. Vidit's 2 losses were really bad for me.
Jan-29-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Dubov out of the tournament because of Covid infection.. Have to give some thought how to rank him if even..
Jan-29-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Yeah, this is a hard call. It is bad enough in the other 2 contests, but it's even worse here.
Jan-29-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Vidit is killing me...
Jan-29-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: Definitely unexpected, but I think using official scores (ie. treat the forfeits as losses) is best.

An alternate would be to rank players based on % of points, though this gets messy (ex. would Giri, who had a R7 forfeit win, be out of 12 or 13?).

Jan-29-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Those are the 2 plausible choices.
Jan-31-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Thanks guys! Since I started these predictions contests, never I encounter a player withdrawing during tournament.

I decide to stick to the original tournament rankings since Dubov was already shared 12/13 before his 3 games forfeit losses. That was already lower than anybody predicted. And even though two of Dubov's last three opponents, besides Giri, Rapport and Pragganandhaa have moved up a bit thanks to forfeited wins, it is only 1 (shared) spot. Carlsen would have been sole winner regardless of his outcome with Dubov (a forfeited win).

Jan-31-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <TATA STEEL CHESS ROUND 11, 12, 13 UPDATE<

Great fighting tournament, lots of decisive games, major upsets!<

Round 11
Duda-Shankland 1/2
Van Foreest-Giri 1-0
Grandelius-Esipenko 1/2
Rapport-Dubov 1-0F
Praggnanandhaa-Caruana 0-1
Carlsen-Vidit 1/2
Mamedyarov-Karjakin 1/2

Round 12
Shankland-Karjakin 1-0
Vidit-Mamedyarov 0-1
Caruana-Carlsen 0-1
Dubov-Praggnanandha 0-1F
Esipenko-Rapport 1/2
Giri-Grandelius 1/2
Duda-Van Foreest 1/2

Round 13
Van Foreest-Shankland 1-0
Grandelius-Duda 1/2
Rapport-Giri 1/2
Praggnanandhaa-Esipenko 1-0
Carlsen - Dubov 1-0F
Mamedyarov-Caruana 1/2
Karjakin-Vidit 1-0<

standings:
1. Carlsen 9.5
2. Mamedyarov 8
2. Rapport
4. Giri 7.5
5. Karjakin 7
5. VanForeest
7. Esipenko 6.5
7. Caruana
9. Duda 6
9. Vidit
11. Shankland 5.5
11. Pragnanandhaa
13. Grandelius 4.5
14. Dubov 3.5>
>
>
>

Jan-31-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: ♔♕♖<FINAL PREDICTION RESULTS>♖♕♔

<ABSOLUTE RANKER>

Score evaluation method: Absolute value of rank deviation Maximum score: 98

Score,UserID
66,ELO
♔63,sadosa
♕57,paavoh
♖53,Keyser Soze
~~~~
52,lostemperor
52,WinKing
51,OhioChessFan
43,chessmoron
29,Messiah
9,Penguincw

<SQUARE RANKER>

Score evaluation method: Least Squares of rank deviation Maximum score: 910

Score,UserID
793,ELO
770,sadosa♔
687,paavoh♕
♖671,OhioChessFan
~~~~
670,Keyser Soze
657,lostemperor
648,WinKing
577,chessmoron
430,Messiah
183,Penguincw

<PAIR BETTING RANKER>

Earnings,UserID
$22.44,sadosa♔
♕$10.30,Keyser Soze
♖$4.19,chessmoron
~~~~
$1.83,paavoh
$1.83,OhioChessFan
$-1.37,Messiah
$-6.57,lostemperor
$-14.22,Penguincw
$-18.43,WinKing

Jan-31-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Large Payoff Pair results:

JACKPOTS!!
=======

Payoff,Pair result,Winners

$9.00,Duda-equal-Vidit, chessmoron

$9.00,Karjakin-above-Caruana, Penguincw

$9.00,Mamedyarov-above-Dubov, sadosa

$9.00,Mamedyarov-equal-Rapport, paavoh

$9.00,Pragnanandhaa-above-Grandelius, Keyser Soze

$9.00,Pragnanandhaa-equal-Shankland, paavoh

$9.00,Rapport-above-Caruana, Penguincw

$9.00,Rapport-above-Dubov, sadosa

$9.00,Rapport-above-Giri, Penguincw

$9.00,Shankland-above-Dubov, Messiah

$9.00,VanForeest-above-Esipenko, chessmoron

$9.00,Vidit-above-Dubov, OhioChessFan

Jan-31-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: TATA STEEL CHESS 2022 WINNERS:

Gold (three Crown)* <sadosa>

Silver <paavoh> and <Keyser Soze>

Bronze <OhioChessFan> and <chessmoron>

Congratulations!!

*(for the still unfinished Hall of Fame one ♔, ♕, ♖ will be added)

Jan-31-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  WinKing: Thanks for running your contest <lostempoeror>. A few new faces & a different mix of players at Tata Steel this year. A little harder to predict.

Always enjoy playing here!

Congratulations to <sadosa> on winning Gold (Triple Crown)! You are now a Hall of Famer winning your first ever Gold medal. Congrats to the other medal winners as well!

Jan-31-22  paavoh: Wow, silver medals for me - unexpected! Tough tournament to predict overall. Thanks <lostemperor> for running the contest, congratulations to all medalists, especially <sadosa>, and good luck to all for the next event!
Jan-31-22  Keyser Soze: wow! Unexpected for me. heh heh I take it. :)

Thanks <le> for running the show.

Jan-31-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Thanks many for to you running contest the.
Jun-13-22
Premium Chessgames Member
  Penguincw: Hi <lostemperor>. Do you plan to have a tournament for the Candidates?
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