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lostemperor
Member since Feb-18-03 · Last seen Feb-02-25
♔♕♖
<FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS' CONTEST FORUM>

Predict the final standings of Tata Steel tournament January 12

Format example to post your predictions

1.Caruana
1. Erigaisi
3. Gukesh
4. Abdusattorov
5. Wei Yi
5. Harikrishna
5. Praggnanandhaa
8. Giri
9. Keymer
10. Fedoseev
11.Van Foreest
12. Sarina
12. Warmerdam
12. Mendonca

Good Luck!


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Some years ago I came up with a new but simple system to calculate the final standings of a tournament including all players. This is how it goes:

For each correct standing you'll get a maximum amount of points. Each prediction deviation from the actual player standing in the tournament, will deduct one point from your total (ABSOLUTE RANKER).

In case of a shared player's standing the average standing counts (both actual and in your predictions).

The SQUARE RANKER, squares your predictions' deviations. Here only medals are awarded if the winner s is not the same person s as in the absolute ranker.

Same goes for the The PAIR BETTING RANKER compare all possible pair outcomes of the tournament participants.

The three best predictions will get Real Virtual Gold Silver and Bronze!

Note: only one set of medals is awarded (in the absolute ranker) unless another ranker produces a different winner.

Special thanks to <YouRang> who made a software to calculate these numbers.

Our new contest manager for game results prediction User: Golden Executive during the tournament also ([1-0], [1/2], [0-1])!

or predict the # of moves in User: ohiochessfan organized by <chessmoron>

Enjoy!


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<HALL <OF> FAME>

WannaBe 10♔ 5♕ 4♖

~~~~
♔♔♔♔♔ ♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♖♖♖♖SwitchingQuylthulg

~~~~

♔♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♕♕♖♖♖YouRang

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♔♕♕♕♖Aurora
♔♔♔♔♕♕♖suenteus po 147
♔♔♔♔♖♖♖Penguincw

~~~~~~

♔♔♔♕♕♕♖♖♖lostemperor
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖♖♖chessmoron
♔♔♔♕♕♖♖♖rogge
♔♔♔♕♕♖cromat
♔♔♔♕♖Robin01
~~~~

♔♔♕♕♕♕WinKing
♔♔♕♕♕♖percyblakeney
♔♔♕♖♖♖yalie
♔♔♕♖wordfunph
♔♔♕♖Ragh
♔♔♕♖Ezzy
♔♔Golden Executive
♔♔SloVice
♔♔positionalgenius
♔♔amadeus

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♔♕♕♕♕♖♖OhioChessFan
♔♕♕♖Diademas
♔♕♖nimh
♔♕♖ahmadov
♔♕♖CHESSBOOKIE
♔♕Keysersoze
♔♕Where is my mind
♔♕Appaz
♔♖♖moronovich*
♔♖Golden Executive*
♔♖Montreal1666
♔♖Troewa

~~~~

♔Beholder
♔juan31
♔wtwz
♔Twinlark
♔SoUnwiseTheKnight B4
♔NGambit
♔benjinathan
♔DCP23
♔firebyrd
♔kellmano
♔Stonehenge
♔cu8sfan
♔larrewl
♔babakova
♔djmercury
♔mikejaqua
♔Joshka,
♔SnoopDogg
♔Like a GM

*may be incomplete

♔ Gold
♕ Silver
♖ Bronze


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>> Click here to see lostemperor's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member

   lostemperor has kibitzed 7712 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Feb-02-25 lostemperor chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: <Keyser Soze>,<0ZeR0>,<Penguincw> won gold each! Congratulations!
 
   Apr-20-24 Golden Executive chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: It is fixed! I had an expert looking at it.
 
   Jan-18-24 OhioChessFan chessforum (replies)
 
lostemperor: Betcha you. Right damn
 
   Jan-11-24 Tata Steel Masters (2024) (replies)
 
lostemperor: ♔♕♖ Announcement ♔♕♖ Join the annual Tata Teel Chess final standings prediction contest at lostemperor chessforum 1. Ding 2. Nepomniachtchi 3. Firouzja 4, Giri 5. Praggnanandhaa 6. Maghsoodloo 7. Vidit 8.Wei 9. Abdusattorov
 
   Feb-26-23 WR Chess Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: The predictions' winners on the final standings of WR Chess on my forum <Penquincw>♔, <Golden Executive>♔, <Chesschronicle22>♕, <OhioChessFan>♕, <Messiah>♖
 
   Jan-30-23 Tata Steel Masters (2023) (replies)
 
lostemperor: Winners of the TATA STEEL CHESS 2023 FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTION'S CONTEST at my forum <Firouzjias>♔♔♖, <tuttifrutty>♔♕♖, <lostemperor>♕♕, <Messiah>♖
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

FINAL STANDINGS PREDICTIONS

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 26 OF 285 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Oct-08-06  positionalgenius: Ahh,I see the list is gone...
Oct-08-06  chessmoron: Probably all the bickering is making Yoda angry. :-D
Oct-08-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: The list is not gone! It simply is moved:)
Oct-09-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I forgot about Fischer's famous ranking of the champions. I've just looked it up here and found a post of <Dick Brain> <Fischer's favorite players in 1964. This was written for "Chess World" magazine. He claimed these players were the ten best ever in no particular order and that: "Just because a man was champion for many years does not necessarily mean that he was a good player."> (what I agree also)

Fischer's list:
1. Paul Morphy
2. Howard Staunton
3. Wilhelm Steinitz
4. Siegbert Tarrasch
5. Mikhail Chigorin
6. Alexander Alekhine
7. Jose Capablanca
8. Boris Spassky
9. Mikhail Tal
10. Samuel Reshevsky

Maybe this was the point where Botvinnik started to seriously dislike Fischer (Dick Brain)

As we see there are also no Lasker and Botvinnik in Fischer's top 10. But Staunton, Steinitz, Tarrasch and Chigorin are!

Oct-09-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Okay, now what's all happening all in Elista. Don't get me wrong here for giving my opinion. Topalov protest on Kramnik's toilet visit, I understand. The first thing that hit my mind of was, brilliant. Topalov was 0-2 down and with 10 games to go he must grab every straw he has as long as it is fair. Danailov/Topalov turning it into a media circus is not nice. But we always complain if there is too little media attention so we mustn't complain now that there is a lot. The papers give much coverage to the match all of a sudden. As long as it doesn't get dirty it's fine with me. (Danailov accusing Kramnik of using Fritz I think crosses the line here)

Kramnik's refusal to play on? Brilliant also (I thought). Or was it? He's got forfeited. That's not very clever. But than Kramnik decided to play on!! Unbelievable I said before the 6th game. This is not logical. "he may be sitting duck" now psycologically. Why should he first let a game be forfeited and than agree to return. Was Kramnik so noble?

I have the feeling we don't know all of it. I think there are some agreements behind the scenes. This is what I expect will happen. If after 12 games the score is 6-6 or 6.5 - 5.5 for Topalov I believe the appeal commitee will reverse the forfeited game to be played. I can't believe Kramnik is so ignorant, to be persuaded to return to the match without some assurances. His bodylanguage also make me think that Kramnik is not too worried about the unfair loss/forfeit. Unfair it was I think. Kramnik should get to play the forfeited game. The right thing!

Oct-10-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: One more game to go in this match Topalov vs Kramnik. The score now is 5.5 -5.5 each. Looking at this match, after my post yesterday, I got a feeling of déjà vu. You know, as if you have seen this situation before. Maybe some of you might have it also. But what déjà vu exactly? Kramnik winning the last game to win the title like he did with Leko then. Not quite but it is very close.

I think I got the feeling of the Fischer vs Spassky match of 1972. Although things are somewhat different here. I was negative about Kramnik's winning chances, after the forfeited game, even when he still was leading with one game. But my feeling has change. Kramnik is going to win the title. Not because he is better than Topalov. It has something to do with politics but also because of that feeling of déjà vu

Oct-10-06  positionalgenius: <lostemperor>Yes,i predict kramnik wins the final game like in Brissago.
Oct-11-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: That may just happen but it might not be quite the same like Brissago. There is much at stake and I don't just mean the honor of Kramnik, Topalov, their feud or who is to become world champion.
Oct-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I will not recognize Mr Kramnik as World Champion under these conditions.
Oct-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: But may the best man (either Kramnik or Topalov) win if not today then after playing the fifth game forfeit and tie-breakers if necessary :)
Oct-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Kramnik vs Topalov 6-6! It seems that the forfeited game is not being played or at least not yet. If that is even possible. I think on the whole we have witnessed some great games.

For the predictioncontest this may pose some practical problems. 6-6 has been predicted by <danielpi>, <suenteus po 147>, <mikejaqua>! All three said, Kramnik to win after the tie-breakers.

But suppose Topalov wins the tie-breakers. Then people who predicted Topalov to win will get points. So it seems anyone, whether you predicted Kramnik or Topalov to win can still win points. Since it has not yet been decided. I know there has been frustrating acts before this result was reached. Especially for the real chess fans! But as long nothing changes in Elista this is the score. As far as chess is concern, we can expect still some exciting tie-break games. Although it may be a pity if a World Chess Championship Match is decided this way.

Oct-12-06  YouRang: <lostemperor: I will not recognize Mr Kramnik as World Champion under these conditions.>

Hi <lostemperor>, this strikes me as a curious position to take -- most people are saying that about Topalov! What are your reasons?

Oct-12-06  danielpi: <lostemperor> Up until this game, I was sure that I would be dead wrong. I'm curious, how many people offered predictions?
Oct-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <YouRang> I was reacting to Kramnik's statement that he "will not recognize Mr Topalov as World Champion under these conditions". I think the opinions is getting too one-sided now. Kramnik being all good and Topalov all bad! One can hardly say something in favor of Topalov without being considered evil. I cannot agree with this. Topalov has the right to protest if someone goes to the bathroom almost 50 times a game. Okay he and Danailov went too far in their accusations. But to say Kramnik has totally no blame in this situation is just not right.

I also tried to say that Kramnik playing in Russia is advantegeous (not to mention that the match is sponsored by Russian money also). It's only natural that if you play in your home country tou have a significant benefit. One of these benefits is probably shown in the fact that Topalov blundered away three games. He got one forfeit in return. Topalov might not have made such big mistakes if he was playing in his home town of Sofia. I'm trying to say that Topalov has some disadvantages too and not just Kramnik. But you saying this was almost a sin.

Oct-12-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: <danielpi> you <suenteus po 147> and <mikejaqua> are at least sure of shared first place! Only if Topalov manages to win the tie-break the people who predicted Topalov to win with 6.5 - 5.5 will get one bonus point for correct winner prediction and join first place. That is if nothing is ruled about the forfeited game.

People who predicted Topalov to win (in order of points (for Topalov): Nakosonorense (7.5); percyblakeney, TIMER, guss inn, Dim Weasel, laisydaisy, JDK, kellmano, topista(7); YouRang, iron maiden, Montreal1666, lostemperor, larrwl, Ezzy (6.5).

People who predicted Kramnik to win (in order of points for Kramnik). DCP23 (7.5); diction, iWaNnAbAgM, Joshka, dimradil(7); acirce, chessmororon, where is my mind, positional genius, virginmind (6.5); danielpi, suenteus po 147, mikejaqua(6 points, Kramnik to win after tie breaks!)

Unfortunately there were incidents/forfeit in this match. We won't know what would happen if there were no the incidents but now it was a close match.

Oct-12-06  YouRang: I would agree that the "Kramnik=all good; Topalov=all bad" sentiment is far too extreme.

In fact, I've been persuaded by <Benzol> and <twinlark> that Topalov may, in a sense, be a victim himself of his relationship w/ Danialov (who has controlled Topalov since he was about 12).

In my mind, the MAIN culprits here are (1) FIDE, for bungling this match in many ways, and (2) Danialov, who instigated all of the baseless accusations of cheating, and actually seems very pleased with the crappy way things worked out.

I would even agree that playing this match in Elista was a very poor choice of venue. (Again, one of the things bungled by FIDE.)

BUT HERE'S THE DIFFERENCE:

Both sides agreed to the venue BEFORE the match began (and as far as I know, Topalov hasn't even complained about the venue). Also, there apparently were no rules limiting the bathroom trips BEFORE the match.

It's when you change the conditions DURING the match, that you wreck its integrity -- particularly if (1) the change clearly favors one side over the other, and (2) the change was approved for no reason other than baseless accusations and speculation, and (3) the change infringes on the personal privacy of one of the players.

This is why the vast majority are taking Kramnik's side in this matter.

I went into this match rooting for Topalov, but now I am hoping Kramnik wins -- not so much for Kramnik's sake, but for the sake of professional chess.

If Kramnik wins, the title will clearly be earned -- by 2 full games OTB (1 full game in classical rules, and 1 in fast play). He could be nothing but the clear champion. But if Topalov wins, the world of professional chess will remain divided (i.e. the long-suffered situation that this match was supposed to fix). Topalov will have the title -- a piece of paper saying he is the world champ. Unfortunately, the prestige of that title itself will be greatly diminished.

Oct-13-06  positionalgenius: <Yourang>That makes it worse! Topalov is spineless if thats true.But its not,see the chessbase interview where he says Danailov has done a "terrific" job for topalov.How idiotic!
Oct-13-06  YouRang: <positionalgenius> My point is that there is room for sympathy for Topalov.

He has been under the wing of his mentor Danialov since he was quite young, and no doubt has a deep sense of loyalty and obligation to Danialov. So, it's likely that he listens to and trusts everything that Danailov tells him (and gets little input from others). Probably, in his view, Danailov can do no wrong.

In my view, this doesn't make Topalov spineless, or idiotic. It's just the natural consequence of lifelong conditioning.

FIDE on the other hand, gets no sympathy. It has consistently proven to be an organization that is both inept and corrupt.

Oct-13-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: Yes, I know Topalov agreed to play in Elista. There was no other option. If there was I think he should have strongly considered it. It is not strange to play in your opponent's country. But the organising Fide president is Russian too. Even though Topalov is a friend of Ilyumzhinov there can be mix of interest. I don't say there was is but under circumstances there can be. Suppose you are playing a foreign champion in his territory. I think you will be at least a bit suspicious to see if you are not disadvantaged in any way. This is a common thing.

Kramnik did a good thing in protesting the change of toilets arrangements I think! But the forfeit he got was not Topalov's fault. It was Fide's and his own mistake. This is not a charity match. If you have seen the Football World Championship final between Italy and France, you know there are no presents given. It also went to psycological warfare from Materazzi where Zidane fell into. This belongs to matches where there is so much at stake. Of course it should be fair still. Zidane's headbutt was clearly out of line.

Oct-13-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: And yes, I will recognize Mr Kramnik as World Champion under these conditions:)
Oct-14-06  danielpi: <lostemperor> Wow. My prediction was correct.
Oct-14-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: The predictioncontest on the World Championship Match result:

The winners:
1. <danielpi>, <suenteus po 147>, <mikejaqua>. Predictions: Kramnik-Topalov 6-6, Kramnik to win after tie-breaks!

4. <acirce>, <chessmororon>, <where is my mind>, <positionalgenius>, <virginmind>. Predictions: Kramnik-Topalov 6.5-5.5

9. <diction>, <iWaNnAbAgM>, <Joshka>, <dimradil> Predictions: Kramnik-Topalov 7-5

13. <DCP23>. Prediction: Kramnik-Topalov 7.5-4.5

I like to point out a remarkable prediction from <Joshka> (without the advantage of the odds): <Kramnik wins 7-5 with 6 drawn games>. That 6 drawn games was correct!

I'm not exactly sure how many points for the overall standings I should give. This was only half part of a contest, but a tough one to predict I admit, as a part of a bigger predictioncontest including the candidate's matches too. That seems to become a candidate's tournament. I think I should also halfened the amount of points usually given for a full contest and give two points for the winners and one for the runner-ups and have a separate contest for the candidate's tournament.

Oct-14-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I'm thinking of writing a letter to Veselin Topalov :)
Oct-14-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  lostemperor: I just found out I made a small mistake in the results of the predictions on this match. The leaders remain the same however! The match result Kramnik - Topalov is 6-6 (kramnik winning the tie-break rapids).

The rules were as follow: each point your prediction differs from the actual score you get one point deduction. A bonus of one point is given if you predict the correct match winner.

Suppose a correct prediction gives you four points. Nothing changes in the top 1-3, who made the correct predictions! 4 + 1 bonus = 5 points

Nor does anything change in place 4-8. One point deduction is 4 points.

Now the people (9-12) who predicted Kramnik-Topalov 7-5 get two points deducted + one bonus = 3 points

Now here comes the difference. People who predicted Topalov to win with 6.5-5.5 only one point difference with the real result! Although they don't get any bonus point. So from the maximum 4 points, one point will be substracted, with no bonus points. Meaning 3 points also.

So the correct standings should be:

1-3 <danielpi>, <suenteus po 147>, <mikejaqua> 5 points (the perfect score)

4-8 <acirce>, <chessmororon>, <where is my mind>, <positionalgenius>, <virginmind> 4 points

<diction>, <iWaNnAbAgM>, <Joshka>, <dimradil> but also <YouRang>, <iron maiden>, <Montreal1666>, <lostemperor>, <larrwl>, <Ezzy> all have 3 points

<DCP23>, <percyblakeney>, <TIMER>, <guss inn>, <Dim Weasel>, <laisydaisy>, <JDK>, <kellmano>, <topista> with 2 points

<Nakosonorense> has 1 point

Just to be accurate here according to before mentioned rules.

Oct-14-06  NakoSonorense: <<Nakosonorense> has 1 point> WHAT? You gotta be kidding me! :)
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