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Arkadij Naiditsch vs Matthias Bluebaum
GRENKE Chess Classic (2018), Baden-Baden GER, rd 5, Apr-05
English Opening: Agincourt Defense. King's Knight (A13)  ·  1/2-1/2
ANALYSIS [x]

FEN COPIED

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Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 2 OF 2 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  Count Wedgemore: <FSR: But as I say, the bishops should ultimately prevail, although it is difficult. Endgame Explorer: BB vs N>

That was interesting, <FSR>. Out of the 27 such games in the endgame database, the bishops won in ca.50% of the games, while the other 50% were drawn (naturally the knight never wins!). That statistics just shows that it is indeed difficult in practical play.

Apr-05-18  BOSTER: White could offer the draw playing Bf4+ and Be5+.
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  FSR: Now comp says White must play 51.Bxf5 to hold the draw. If not, he is in trouble. Cool for me, since I bet on Bluebaum to win. Go Bluebaum!
Apr-05-18  Marmot PFL: Naiditsch should have wrapped this up hours ago. Not playing well the last couple days.
Apr-05-18  BOSTER: <FSR> What aboit Ke4?
Apr-05-18  morfishine: Darn it, draws now and I had BlueBaum :(
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  FSR: <BOSTER> 52.Ke4 Rxf5 53.Bxa7 Rf6 followed by Rxa6 draws.
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  FSR: Drawn!
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  chancho: I'm glad it's a draw.

I did not relish the thought of getting 1 out of 5 in the prediction contest!

Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  FSR: <chancho>: <wordfunph>, <Count Wedgemore> and I all predicted five draws.
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  chancho: Awesome!
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  keypusher: Do people underpredict draws on chessbookie? I've always assumed they would.
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  offramp: <keypusher: Do people underpredict draws on chessbookie? I've always assumed they would.>

There is that petrifying moment when a player has a won position in a game that you've punted a thousand c$ on him winning. He starts to go wrong and the computer eval goes from +17 to +4.5. Then the eval starts to up and down more often than Bill Cosby's knickers... Then, a few moves later it's a draw.

One is left staring at the screen, looking like Robert Shaw at the end of <The Sting>.

Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  FSR: <keypusher> I think often people overpredict draws on ChessBookie. They're risk-averse and so prefer to bet on the most likely result - usually a draw - in order to increase their chances of winning the bet. So more money ends up being wagered on draw and not enough being wagered on decisive results.
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  keypusher: <One is left staring at the screen, looking like Robert Shaw at the end of <The Sting>.>

But any man would want to look like Robert Shaw at the end of <The Sting>! Rugged good looks, pinstripes, pencil-thin mustache...

Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  keypusher: < FSR: <keypusher> I think often people overpredict draws on ChessBookie. They're risk-averse and so prefer to bet on the most likely result - usually a draw - in order to increase their chances of winning the bet. So more money ends up being wagered on draw and not enough being wagered on decisive results.>

I guess I assumed they would bet with their hearts, but it sounds like people use their heads, even with play money.

Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  chancho: I remember Robert Shaw staring, yes, but at something else:

https://youtu.be/pmLP0QQPqFw?t=30

Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  ChessHigherCat: <FSR: Bluebaum is "blue tree.">

You just got your German-teaching license revoked. "Blue" is "blau". To Blossom is "blühen", so "Blühbaum" is "blossoming tree" as <Bavaria> cryptically uttered yesterday.

Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  FSR: <ChessHigherCat: <FSR: Bluebaum is "blue tree.">

You just got your German-teaching license revoked.>

Crap.

Apr-05-18  WorstPlayerEver: Lol glühwein isn't glue wine.
Apr-05-18  SamAtoms1980: One of my favorites is "eiswein" (no, <not> ice wine!)
Apr-05-18  goodevans: This game would have been all over much quicker and in white's favour if he'd played <f4> on move 24 or better still a move earlier. Pressure on the a1-h8 diagonal would have made the attack truly potent.
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  FSR: <keypusher> Nah, if they were using their heads they'd vote for the event that had the most favorable odds (for example, it's paying out as though there's only a 1 in 20 chance of it happening, but the true odds are 1 in 10), not the event that is most probable.
Apr-05-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  keypusher: <FSR: <keypusher> Nah, if they were using their heads they'd vote for the event that had the most favorable odds (for example, it's paying out as though there's only a 1 in 20 chance of it happening, but the true odds are 1 in 10), not the event that is most probable.>

Hey, I didn't say they were using them well! Only that their choices were guided by interest rather than sentiment, unless cowardice is a sentiment.

May-13-18
Premium Chessgames Member
  offramp: <SamAtoms1980: One of my favorites is "eiswein" (no, <not> ice wine!)>

But it <is> "ice wine".

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