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< Earlier Kibitzing · PAGE 28 OF 78 ·
Later Kibitzing> |
Oct-29-22
 | | perfidious: Have the missing funds from a certain Florida club turned up yet? |
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Oct-31-22
 | | fredthebear: Were you expecting Hans Niemann to put them back? |
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| Nov-03-22 | | Damenlaeuferbauer: Yesterday, the GOAT Hans Moke Niemann called me and spoke for himself: He told me, that he is tired of all the bad chess games and even worse chess literature out there, and entrusted me, that he is now writing a chess book with the title "Hans Niemann Teaches Chess: My 30 Memorable over 90% Correlation Games". The foreword will be written by no other than world champion Magnus Carlsen, and the book is spiced up with some pin-up photos of Andrea Botez. The co-commentator is Stockfish 14. Really interesting stuff! |
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Nov-04-22
| | perfidious: <Damen>, did Niemann take oceans of time? After all, you constantly relate how players go into the tank for long thinks before whipping out devastating coups, as if you actually witnessed them. |
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| Nov-15-22 | | qqdos: With the dust having settled for a while, it might be timely to reassure the Young Upstart's many supporters feeling despondent about <Akiva Cohen's> severe strictures about Hans's pleading: fear not. Any pleading that succeeds in including "egregious" on its first page is deserving of the utmost admiration and respect. It tells a compelling story in very graphic language and will survive an early strike-out application. The story is replete with malicious falsehood (an English term of art!) and the use and abuse of a dominant position against a single young Plaintiff. The most telling example of petty vindictive behaviour, as pleaded, is the timing of the decision to accuse Hans with maximum publicity of 100 instances of cheating on the very eve (or the first day) of his participation in his first and extremely important US Chess Championship. The Defendants may find it difficult to convince any Judge of their generosity of spirit. |
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Nov-15-22
| | perfidious: <qqdos....The Defendants may find it difficult to convince any Judge of their generosity of spirit.> That would indeed appear to be a tough sell. |
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Nov-15-22
 | | MissScarlett: <The most telling example of petty vindictive behaviour, as pleaded, is the timing of the decision to accuse Hans with maximum publicity of 100 instances of cheating on the very eve (or the first day) of his participation in his first and extremely important US Chess Championship.> I believe the report was released on the day of the opening ceremony, the day before the first round. That it was apparently leaked to the <Wall St Journal> before general release might be considered an aggravating circumstance. By pleasing symmetry, Niemann's lawsuit was filed the day of the closing ceremony. |
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Nov-16-22
| | fredthebear: <petty vindictive behaviour>
It won't be petty when this is all said and done. |
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Nov-26-22
 | | blazerdoodle: Been catching up all week. Long blog since the blow up. Turkey Day on top of it. Wow. Who was it who said (on here) <once a cheater, always a cheater?> (found it). Lifemaster AJ. I have a problem with ZoboBear 000000001 comment on LIFE Master AJ: <"Once homeless, ALWAYS homeless!"> Using the thief ((NOT HOMELESS)) as an example (my own experience). Here's the problem with trust - I "want" to trust again. Maybe in church. But: Hans is upset that he is now not to be believed. Once you've already committed the crime, you desperately later want to put it all behind you. Only, it doesn't work that way, does it? People who haven't cheated will never trust you again, so let's say you sue them because they can never trust you again -- maybe this is sad because the incident he is now accused of -- well -- maybe he really is innocent -???-... but like a theif that needs to be watched when he is around, who wants your trust so bad.., well -- can (should?)Hans can be believed again? Easy for someone to say who isn't going to invite him into their house -- but oh -- there's no evidence. Or some don't believe in the severity. Online is just not OTB. Okay. But, like the thief, it's hard to be around someone you once loved who has serously robbed you and wants forgiveness --- and thought he had it --- until finding out that he didn't -- and I don't know. It goes round and round. Not HOMELESS, the "Thief." This is why some of us can't trust the thief again, and frankly maybe part of the reason Carlsen can't trust a (even if former) Cheat. Like Susan Polgar said, you really should stay away from cheating. Try telling that to an addict. Long tough blog. |
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| Nov-28-22 | | Bobby Fiske: Time will be the ultimate proof in the Niemann-case. Will he maintain his Super-GM performance in a tournament world with sharpened anti-cheating routines? First impression is he's back to being a 2600-player. |
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| Nov-28-22 | | stone free or die: <Bobby Fiske: Time will be the ultimate proof in the Niemann-case. Will he maintain his Super-GM performance in a tournament world with sharpened anti-cheating routines? First impression is he's back to being a 2600-player.> Is that true?
Can we agree that the sharpened anti-cheating routines have been in place since St. Louis? If so, then we already have a fair bit of data to test Niemann's play, even if don't make an allowance for the great deal of stress Carlsen's boycott must have on his playing. (After all, the increased scrutiny of the anti-cheating measures must feel somewhat personal to him, and certainly can't bolster his play psychologically) As said, even playing with such a disadvantage, we have a fair amount of data already in. https://2700chess.com/?per-page=100
His current live rating stands at 2698.5, which essentially matches his performance at Fall Chess Classic (given that his rating delta was only -0.5 ELO points). That's nine games, no losses, with a win against a 2687 player (and draws ranging from 2589 (-1.5) to 2716 (+0.3). The data says he's awfully close to a 2700 player, being at the top of the heap of 2600 players. And for those questioning his TPR performance at the US Open: https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comm... One should judge fairly - he took a bit of a hit then, but has recovered since. Other super-GM's performance fluctuate as well. My opinion is that he's holding his own nicely, very close to 2700 rating. I agree, time will tell, ultimately. His ratings trajectory promised more of an increase - but I don't see any discontinuity: https://2700chess.com/players/niemann |
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| Nov-28-22 | | Bobby Fiske: THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELF
Here is a summary of all his 18 games, from his 2 last tournaments. TRP calculated with the simplified ± 400 win/lose formula:SINQUEFIELD CUP
R1-R3: = TRP 3059
+2 in 3 games. Drew Aronian, beat Shak and Magnus. R4-R9: TRP 2634
-2 in 6 games (move delay from R4)
US CHAMPIONSHIP = TRP 2598
-1 in 9 rounds (move delay all rounds)
CONCLUSION: His performance dropped considerably in the 15 games played with move relay delay. You might say the numbers are too few for statistical significance, and that Hans is not performing at his best after all the publicity. That’s why time will be the final proof. |
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Nov-28-22
| | MissScarlett: Niemann scored +1 at the US Champs over 13 rounds (U.S. Championship (2022)) , and +1 at the Fall Classic over 9 rounds (Fall Chess Classic (2022)). |
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| Nov-29-22 | | Bobby Fiske: Thank you <Scarlett>. (Memo to myself: Always refer to chess-results.com when digging into details). So here is my post, updated: THE NUMBERS SPEAK FOR THEMSELF
Here is a summary of all his <22> games, from his 2 last tournaments. TRP calculated with the simplified ± 400 win/lose formula: SINQUEFIELD CUP
R1-R3: = TRP 3059
+2 in 3 games. Drew Aronian, beat Shak and Magnus. R4-R9: TRP 2634
-2 in 6 games (move delay from R4)
US CHAMPIONSHIP = TRP 2699
+1 in 13 rounds (move delay all rounds)
CONCLUSION: His performance dropped considerably in the 19 games played with move relay delay. You might say the numbers are too few for statistical significance, and that Hans is not performing at his best after all the publicity. That’s why time will be the final proof. |
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Nov-29-22
| | MissScarlett: What was the TPR for the Fall Classic? Then calculate the overall rating performance for the 28 games since the defeat of Magnus. Compare that with the 28 games he played prior to the Sinquefield Cup. |
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Nov-29-22
 | | beatgiant: <Bobby Fiske>
Everyone thinks statistics is simple.
It's not valid to cherry-pick his 3 best games in a row and expect him to perform at that level constantly. Try applying that test to some other GMs and you'll "discover" a lot more "evidence of cheating." |
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| Nov-29-22 | | stone free or die: I don't understand the interpretation of the US Championship results: https://ratings.fide.com/report.pht... It seems to me that Niemann performed near 2700 level (2699), when the original assertion was that he's dropped back to being a "2600 player". Super-GM might be slightly ill-defined, but isn't it generally taken to mean 2700+? I would say that Niemann is still knocking at the door, despite the "improved" anti-cheating measures, and the turmoil of the Sinquefield Cup. |
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| Nov-29-22 | | stone free or die: <<Missy> What was the TPR for the Fall Classic?> https://2700chess.com/?per-page=100
Go to Niemann, click on the magnifying glass and you'll see the effect of the Fall Classic on his rating, -0.5. Pretty sure this means his TPR is essentially the same as his current rating - i.e. a tad less than 2698.5. |
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Nov-29-22
| | perfidious: <zed>, quite so; Niemann performed more or less to expectation. The bit re 'dropped back to being a 2600 player' is risible; when Niemann climbs over that elusive barrier of 2700, will he magically become elite again? roflm*ao |
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| Nov-29-22 | | Bobby Fiske: <<beatgiant> It's not valid to cherry-pick his 3 best games in a row and expect him to perform at that level constantly.> It's not cherry picking. Those first 3 rounds are the games who fuled the whole controversy. Comparing the results before/after the organizer started to delay the move transmission is interesting. Statistically, it fits the picture if you think Hans cheated. <Try applying that test to some other GMs and you'll "discover" a lot more "evidence of cheating.> OK. Pls show us an example. |
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Nov-29-22
 | | chancho: For someone who says <he'll let his chess speak for itself,> his results have been not so meteoric but more like sophomoric. The guy is not the next Bobby Fischer.
And as far as the lawsuit, I've seen Magnus grinning like a cheshire cat. Doesn't look worried at all.
The Niemann effect seems to be losing its luster. |
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| Nov-29-22 | | nok: We need more math illiterate posts.
Hans Niemann (kibitz #509) |
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Nov-29-22
| | perfidious: Better math illiterate than utterly lacking in decency and humanity, as is the case in certain quarters. |
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Nov-29-22
| | fredthebear: Like you're one to be judging others. |
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Nov-29-22
| | beatgiant: <Bobby Fiske>
< It's not cherry picking. Those first 3 rounds are the games who fuled the whole controversy.>
Carlsen started the controversy after Carlsen lost a game. You consider that a valid statistical criterion?<Pls show us an example.>
I don't have time to do this right, but let's take a quick look at some players close to Niemann on the rankings, then. Sargissian, Round 6-Round 9 of Chennai Olympiad had 3 wins and 1 draw versus Caruana, Harikrishna, Abdusattorov and Mamedyarov. Chennai Olympiad (2022)/Gabriel Sargissian Deac, Round 1-Round 3 of Superbet Romania had 2 draws and 1 win versus Nepo, Aronian and Rapport. Superbet Romania (2022)/Bogdan-Daniel Deac Artemiev, Round 16-Round 18 of Meltwater Finals had 2 wins and 1 draw versus Carlsen.
Meltwater Tour Final (2021)/Vladislav Artemiev Keymer, Round 5-Round 7 of Grand Prix Berlin had two wins and a draw versus Dubov, Dominguez Perez, and Mamedyarov. FIDE Grand Prix Leg 3 (2022)/Vincent Keymer Even without doing any math, it should be obvious from the above that it often happens that a player rated around 2700 has a performance much higher than 2700 for a small number of games in a row. |
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