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May-01-06
 | | cu8sfan: Crazy betting going on... |
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| May-01-06 | | percyblakeney: I'm avoiding it, I just don't have a clue who will win... |
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May-01-06
| | cu8sfan: This is like e-bay, trying to get your bet in in the final second. Thanks to the person who bet 2000 on Carlsen in the last split of second. You have just increased my win by 5 bucks per ten invested. Go van Wely! |
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| May-01-06 | | TIMER: I missed the tie-breaks.
But look how so many have shot up. Now 20th place is over 2000, 10th place is over 3000, and 5th place is over 4000! I take back what I said about relaxing once I reach 5000, I think I will need to be well into 5 figures to be safe in 2 months time at this rate![Unless things slow down, you will need atleast 27000 to be in the top ten after 3 months, as tenth place has multiplied their 1000 by over 3 in one month. An average rate of increase of over 3.7% a day] I have been too conservative since reaching 2500, maybe I have to take bigger risks again? Otherwise I might come 20th on 8000! |
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| May-01-06 | | TIMER: By the way, the top two have an average rate of increase of about 7% a day! With increase of 1% a day you would be about 1350 after one month and only about 2500 after 3 months! |
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| May-01-06 | | TIMER: I had a win-win-win on the fourth game of the classical match, as I had bet on a tie, so cut my winnings by 123 betting on Van Wely/Carlsen in the final game to make sure I gain no matter what. But I expected a draw, so maybe I should not have played it so safe. |
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| May-01-06 | | who: I don't know if you're right about extrapolating how quickly people's values will grow. The rate at which the top grows will be proportional to the number of people who are near the top. This is because the number of people who have the money to make a bet that will really shoot them forward past $10,000 is really quite small. Therefore, the likelehood that there is someone who makes one of these bets and actually wins goes down. |
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| May-01-06 | | TIMER: <who> I agree that it ought to slow down, because the number of people near the top decreases, and they would probably take less risk and play more safe too the higher they get. But more people are entering it, more is borrowed, and we are only a third of the way through the time. So the top ten will probably get a lot higher even if it slows down. Atleast 2 or 3 times higher. By the way what was Refutor on before jumping to 8 thousand, he seemed to come from nowhere? |
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| May-01-06 | | who: I don't know. I wish they had a betting history feature added. That way you could see who bet on what. |
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May-01-06
 | | Sneaky: <By the way what was Refutor on> I don't know but pass it over here ;-) |
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| May-01-06 | | DeepBlade: I trusted Van Wely...
I still trust him, but not when I play Bookie |
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| May-01-06 | | refutor: lol...i took a chance and bet it all on a match draw when does the "quarter" end? |
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May-01-06
 | | Chessgames Bookie: You can bet on round 5 Sigeman & Co. games now. The official site (http://www.sigeman-chess.com/) has a link "LIVE" on the left side which will take you to the live games. Games should start at 8:00am US/Eastern time. Sigeman & Co: Round 5: Cicak vs Timman
Sigeman & Co: Round 5: Stellwagen vs Fedorov
<when does the "quarter" end?> It ends on June 18th, in Las Vegas (appropriately), with the US National Open Championship. |
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May-02-06
 | | lostemperor: It's fair to say that the Van Wely - Carlsen match caused a small earthquake in the bookie game standings (and finally, after 34 years, Boris Spassky is on top again)! As for me I almost broke even on his match. I didn't win but fortunately didn't lose very much either. I put a modest amount on Van Wely and almost half that amount on the tie. Win and lose some on the individual games. It was too scary for me to put money on the blitz tiebreaker but when the odds was becoming so much against van Wely, I couldn't resist putting a small amount on him :() |
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| May-02-06 | | percyblakeney: I could never think that more than 5 000 would be on Cicak beating Timman today... |
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| May-02-06 | | percyblakeney: OK, I don't think Cicak will win, so time to be less conservative with the bets. 1 000 on draw and 300 on Timman to minimize today's loss if the after all more than 100 points higher rated player wins... |
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| May-02-06 | | TIMER: <percyblakeney> I did a similar thing, 1375 on draw and 500 on Timman. But just have to hope a big upset does not occur. |
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| May-02-06 | | aktajha: ...and I'm dead; I made one big guess (and by accident clicked on the wrong fellow to win the match) for 800 bucks or so, lost it and now my bucks are all eaten by the loanshark. :'( |
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| May-02-06 | | percyblakeney: After 23 moves I'd say: Timman win: 60%, draw: 35%, Cicak win: 5%. |
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| May-02-06 | | TIMER: As well as Cicak's relatively low rating, Timman is in good form in this tournament on 3.5/4. I was surprised the odds on Timman winning weren't higher. But Timman has also been the puchbag in the past, so very unpredictable. A draw was the best bet, but both bets on draw and Timman were good as too much was put on Cicak. |
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| May-02-06 | | percyblakeney: I thought Timman might be happy with a draw here since he's sole leader and it's his second to last game with black, luckily I covered a bit but not enough with a Timman win but I guess it's far from over yet... |
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| May-02-06 | | percyblakeney: Hmm, I wonder why Timman gave the pawn back, but I guess he knows what he's doing... |
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| May-02-06 | | acirce: When was Timman supposed to be better? Looked like a fairly useless extra pawn. |
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| May-02-06 | | percyblakeney: I want a draw so I suppose I've been exaggerating Timman's winning chances, but Cicak's king did seem a bit in the open after the 25th move. |
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| May-02-06 | | percyblakeney: Now I'm worried that Cicak might be winning instead... |
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