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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-11-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

Things To Look At:
1. Game Collection: 1975 World Junior chess championship
2. Ongoing edits Vladimir Ostrogsky
3. Bio Adolf Zytogorski
4. Complete the Olympiad
5. Bio Lorenz Maximilian Drabke

7. Baden-Baden (1870)

11. Karl Mayet
12. Smbat Lputian

Pi Day
rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

Pun Index Game Collection: Game of the Day & Puzzle of the Day Collections

>> Click here to see OhioChessFan's game collections.

Chessgames.com Full Member
   Current net-worth: 792 chessbucks
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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49343 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
   Nov-07-25 Chessgames - Politics (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
   Nov-07-25 C Wells vs J Rush, 1963
 
OhioChessFan: "Fly-By Knight"
 
   Nov-07-25 K Hanache vs P Crocker, 2024
 
OhioChessFan: "Not Two Knights, I Have a Hanache"
 
   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
   Nov-04-25 Chessgames - Sports (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Mike Royko was fantastic. Slats Grobnik was guaranteed to make me laugh myself silly.
 
   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
OhioChessFan: Those crazy chess players, playing down to bare Kings....
 
   Nov-04-25 B Men vs Ftacnik, 1993
 
OhioChessFan: "Mad Men"
 
(replies) indicates a reply to the comment.

Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 158 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
May-20-10  whatthefat: < I will tread lightly here and say I have no memory of you affirming <whatthefat> is wrong to call that a theory. Perhaps I don't remember it. We agree it is an assumption and not a theory. >

It is definitely an assumption, not a theory. As <YouRang> said (and for the record I agree), the theory of abiogenesis is still in the research stage of development. There is no full mechanistic theory of life from non-life (as I've said a couple of times). Experiments have confirmed some steps along the path already, but not the entire path of course.

May-20-10  whatthefat: <OCF: Now, may I suggest that is the future state of affairs in the attempt to discover how life came from nonlife?>

I'm not sure what you mean by "future state of affairs". Do you mean it is just a matter of time before the requisite experiments are done and the theory fully developed (i.e., in the future we will be able to say that the theory of abiogenesis is able to account for all steps in the development of life, and it is increasing unlikely that it occurred by another process)? If so, I agree, but that seems contrary to your previous statements that scientists will never replicate the steps required for the generation of life from non-life because it can't happen, so perhaps I'm misunderstanding you.

May-20-10  achieve: Re: controversy on examining, interpreting, verifying and then consensual assigning the "term" bona fide science and the use of the "Scientific Method"

<

Having gathered all the "relevant" evidence, the scientist may proceed to the second part of scientific methodology, making a hypothesis. In doing this, two rules must be followed: (a) the hypothesis must explain all the observations

and (b) <<< the hypothesis must be the simplest one that will explain them.>>> These two rules might be summed up in the statement that a scientific hypothesis must be adequate and it must be simple.

Once again let us confess that these two rules are idealistic rather than practicable, but they remain, nevertheless, the goals by which a scientist guides his activities. When we say that a hypothesis must be adequate, and thus must include all of the relevant observations, we are saying something simple. But carrying out this simple admonition is extremely difficult. It is quite true that every scientific hypothesis suffers from inadequate evidence—"

>

Are there challenges to this "premise"?

Please inform me if this brief definition is valid or not, and how it applies to assertions alike "The Fact of Evolution" and its Darwinian keystone claiming Phenotypic adaptation acting upon gradual.... Ok - you know the drill ;))

I think it is extremely important to define Science and the Scientific method, and the sharpness of the knife or scalpel that is used here, because it's in my opinion one of the main vehicles wielded in the emotionally driven open figh between the Creationist and Atheistic scientists and their their relative backing groups.

I think we are doing well to disconnect from that, and should solely busy us with what it is Science aims to clarify and achieve, and what not, and how and why (Philosophy of Science), and adopting a more humble stance while taking position. Do NOT let others from your PEERGROUPS do ANY of the thinking for you.

The issue is simply too complex, delicate and sensitive for that. IMO.

May-20-10  cormier: <Lifting up his eyes to heaven,(exterior life) Jesus prayed saying:>

<“I pray not only for these,

but also for those who will believe in me through their word,

so that they may all be one,

as you, Father, are in me and I in you,

that they also may be in us,

<that the world may believe> that you sent me.>

<And I have given them the glory you gave me,

so that they may be one, as we are one,

I in them and you in me,

that they may be brought to perfection as one,>

that the world may know that you sent me,

<and that you loved them even as you loved me.>

<Father, they are your gift to me.

<I wish that where I am they also may be with me,

that they may see my glory that you gave me,>

because you loved me before the foundation--> of the world.

<Righteous Father,> the world also does not know you,

but <I know you, and they know that you sent me.

I made known to them your name and I will make it known,

that the love with which you loved me

may be in them and I in them.”>

May-20-10  cormier: <The Salvation of all humanity(the world) is ever actual to the Eternel ..... i will attract all men (human) to me ..... tks God p.s. in due time>
May-20-10  cormier: Matthew 11:28 "Come to Me, all who are weary and heavy-laden, and I will give you rest.

29 "Take My yoke upon you and learn from Me, for I am gentle and humble in heart, and YOU WILL FIND REST FOR YOUR SOULS.

30 "For My yoke is easy and My burden is light."

May-20-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <whatthefat: It is definitely an assumption, not a theory. As <YouRang> said (and for the record I agree), the theory of abiogenesis is still in the research stage of development. >

Excuse me while I go jump out a window.

May-20-10  whatthefat: <OCF: Excuse me while I go jump out a window.>

I'm not following (pun intended).

May-20-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <I'm not following (pun intended).>

I haven't been following for the past month or four.

May-20-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan>

<<YouRang: Actually this is not my position regarding the issue of life from nonlife....IMO, the life from nonlife issue is still in the research phase.>

OCF: I stand corrected and am sorry to have misrepresented your position. I haven't kept a scorecard but will try to keep your position straight. I will tread lightly here and say I have no memory of you affirming <whatthefat> is wrong to call that a theory. Perhaps I don't remember it. We agree it is an assumption and not a theory.>

I'm glad that you finally agree that I call it an assumption. As hard as I try, I can't resist mentioning that I've been calling it an assumption since April 11. ;-)

I don't think <whatthefat> and I disagree, per his own post. There have been times where he has used the word 'theory' with respect to abiogenesis, and I've always assumed that he is speaking in the sense of a "potential theory" rather than a "specific theory that exists today".

May-20-10  YouRang: <OCF: Really, my main point in the chess analogy was to suggest scientists who falsely claim that life arising from nonlife is a theory have played an illegal opening move. Last time I broached that, you opposed me. I am now a little confused why.>

Okay, I recall the time you used the chess analogy. (BTW, here is your chess analogy post: OhioChessFan chessforum).

I opposed your use of the analogy because it was faulty. I'll explain:

You used the chess analogy in the context of carrying out science. The point of your analogy was that evolution is like a chess game that is invalid because it started out with an illegal opening move -- namely, that life can't come from nonlife, which [you assert] is impossible [i.e. illegal].

However, you falsely assume that science must find a complete natural explanation for abiogenesis before evolution theory can be accepted. Apparently, you think so only because abiogenesis must have occurred first chronologically.

But would you feel the same way if we were discussing the evolution of languages?

Would you be shocked if language researchers figured out how various languages evolved from 100 years ago *before* they understand the earlier (and often common) forms of those languages 1000 years ago and 4000 years ago?

Would you insist that they find the very first instance of a language before you accept the legitimacy of their more recent findings about language evolution?

The order in which science make progress in terms of *understanding* past events is not necessarily in the same order that those events *occurred*. In fact, I would expect the reverse order to be more likely, as is the case with both language evolution and life evolution.

BTW, when I explained this earlier (April 11), your response was to resort to a characteristically sarcastic misrepresentation of what I said:

<OCF: I see. Assume in a miracle, and then work backwards to it. I lack the scientific mind to understand that brilliance. And you have a problem with my assumption of how it all started?>

IMO, it was sort of ironic for you to say this in a mocking tone, since *your* assumption of how it all started really is to assume a miracle.

May-20-10  YouRang: <twinlark: Right on cue:

Headline: <Breakthrough as artificial life is created>>

Interesting article, although I don't think it pertains to abiogenesis (nor do I think you claimed that it did).

I tend to side with those who stress caution. One thing we know about life is that it's not as controllable as might wish it were.

May-20-10  cormier: the Book of Ecclesiastes; the author complains frequently in the book about the monotony of life. The entire passage reads, “The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.”

<nothing new under the sun> physically speaking

Everything has been seen before, as in Those designs take me back to the 1950s there really is nothing new under the sun. This world-weary view was already expressed in 1382 in the Bible translation attributed to John Wycliffe's followers: "No thing under the sun is new" (Ecclesiastes 1:9).

May-20-10  twinlark: <YouRang>

<Interesting article, although I don't think it pertains to abiogenesis (nor do I think you claimed that it did).>

I added it for interest before deleting it as an unnecessary distraction.

May-20-10  YouRang: <achieve> <...Having gathered all the "relevant" evidence, the scientist may proceed to the second part of scientific methodology, making a hypothesis. In doing this, two rules must be followed: (a) the hypothesis must explain all the observations and (b) <<< the hypothesis must be the simplest one that will explain them.>>> These two rules might be summed up in the statement that a scientific hypothesis must be adequate and it must be simple. >

I would have expected a statement about the hypothesis being testable.

The bit about simplicity seems to be more of a natural preference. It makes a hypothesis easier to understand and apply -- it doesn't necessarily make it a more accurate representation of reality.

Also, there may be more to the scientific method that described in this blurb.

Otherwise, no great challenges from me. Then again, I am not a scientist, so I would give more weight to <whatthefat>'s comment, if he offers any.

May-20-10  twinlark: <Ohio>

<I'll cut to the chase here.>

Likewise. So long.

May-20-10  whatthefat: <YouRang: The bit about simplicity seems to be more of a natural preference. It makes a hypothesis easier to understand and apply -- it doesn't necessarily make it a more accurate representation of reality.>

Agreed. Given two equally good explanations for the same phenomenon, the more parsimonious is typically favored unless there is good reason not to, e.g., the explanation is part of a broader theory that explains a bunch of other phenomena that the simpler explanation can't.

The ability to test a hypothesis is of course also required, because one can't proceed any further in the scientific method without that. This is the problem with intelligent design and other miraculous explanations - they cannot be considered scientific theories because they don't get out of the starting gate; there is no way to test them to ascertain whether they are true or false.

May-20-10  cormier: guys i just look at <univ-soldier regeneration> ... -->dead are nitrogenically+thyroidly+petuitairaly+ADNelly+pr- ogramable or deprogramable and anti-radiations protected+gadgetably+ ..... -->humanisably(JCVD here) and not to forgot "la puce" extra-intra-super-computedly+Samsonably+ oh well till later, hockey is on <this year, it's eighter Philadelfillycheese or SanjoseOmega3fishoil that win's the Stanley Cup> ..... tks p.s. <<not both,> only one of these is #1>
May-20-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <YouRang: I don't think <whatthefat> and I disagree, per his own post. There have been times where he has used the word 'theory' with respect to abiogenesis, and I've always assumed that he is speaking in the sense of a "potential theory" rather than a "specific theory that exists today".>

When I get done shaking my head for a few hours, I might get back to this.

May-20-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <(3) The specific theory of how life generated from non-life is known as abiogenesis, and it involves the study of how the chemical structures associated with life might form from those already present. It has been the subject of many repeatable experiments, and been refined along the way based on the results of these experiments (i.e., certain elements of the theory have been undermined or supported).>

Does that sound like "potential theory" to you?

May-20-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan> <When I get done shaking my head for a few hours, I might get back to this.>

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcva...

May-20-10
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: LOL. Head or hips, something.
May-20-10  YouRang: <OhioChessFan: <(3) The specific theory of how life generated from non-life is known as abiogenesis, and it involves the study of how the chemical structures associated with life might form from those already present. It has been the subject of many repeatable experiments, and been refined along the way based on the results of these experiments (i.e., certain elements of the theory have been undermined or supported).>

Does that sound like "potential theory" to you?>

No. But if you take that (May 1st) post *in context*, there can be little doubt:

<whatthefat:

(1) The idea that life came from non-life <<is not a scientific theory at all>>. It is a fact, deduced from the following two trivial facts: (i) there was a time when there was no life, and (ii) there is now life.

(2) The idea that this can be accounted for naturally (i.e., not invoking any miracles) <<is not a scientific theory either>>. It is the central tenet of science that all observations can be naturally explained, and all scientific theories must be developed within this framework *by definition*. Theories which break this rule no longer fall within the ambit of science.

(3) The specific theory of how life generated from non-life is known as abiogenesis, and it involves the study of how the chemical structures associated with life might form from those already present. It has been the subject of many repeatable experiments, and been refined along the way based on the results of these experiments (i.e., certain elements of the theory have been undermined or supported).>

In view of paragraphs (1) and (2), I don't see how the 'theory' referenced in paragraph (3) can be seen as a <existing scientific theory> at all.

However.... I'll grant that I can see how someone might see this as contradictory. Personally, I would not have worded it that way given the potential for confusion for the general audience of this particular discussion.

But in reading all three paragraphs, there is clearly an implied distinction between 'scientific theory' (in paragraphs 1 and 2) and 'theory' (in paragraph 3).

The use of 'theory' in paragraph (3) is the more casual, non-rigid sense of the word. The point is to give it a name (abiogenesis), and to point out that research work is being done and progress is being made.

*Potentially* there will one day be a true *scientific* theory (perhaps by that same name) that explains how life might have come about naturally from nonlife.

May-20-10  achieve: <YouRang> <Elvis> Heh, great clip! and timing with that very nice humorous touch :) Watching footage of "The King" there it struck me that while not even at cruising speed, he still oozes so much class, that it leaves many contemporary "stars" shine only dimly in comparison... And thanks for the responses to my previous post. I do maintain that the scalpel of the scientific method needs grinding and sharpening, still, and the handling of the scalpel then even more urgently.

As far as I can judge the main cause for opposing positions re the interpretations and qualifications for what is deemed fact, theory, hypotheses, assumptions - lies therein, and indeed is motored by bias and emotional factors which remain to an extent discussed off and on, though it shines through in just about every single post quite forcefully.

Quite a challenge to walk the tight rope between remaining civil and yet not fearing razorsharp counter arguments.... Like PlaygroundPlayer said, compared to what you read from blogs and book reviews etc., there is quite a standard being maintained here.

May-20-10  whatthefat: <The use of 'theory' in paragraph (3) is the more casual, non-rigid sense of the word. The point is to give it a name (abiogenesis), and to point out that research work is being done and progress is being made.>

Exactly. Abiogenesis is a work in progress. The issue really boils down to the fact that the generation of cellular life from non-life is not a simple phenomenon. It clearly requires a multi-step process, each step of which requires a theory in its own right, so the use of the phrase "theory for life from non-life" is as fuzzy as the definition of life itself. It is not like the theory of gravity where you can state Newton's equation and be done with it.

I didn't (repeatedly) suggest that <OCF> go and read about this for no reason. It has been clear for a long time that scientific terminology (e.g., fact vs. theory, unobservable vs. not yet observed, etc.) has been causing confusion for him.

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