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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-09-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 36 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Dec-24-06  Nightranger: Merry Christmas, OhioChessFan.
Dec-24-06  chesstoplay: Merry Christmas!
Dec-25-06  e4Newman: it was inspiring to read about your genorosity <OhioChessFan>
Dec-25-06  Boomie: To get the juices flowing after the break, here's everything I have on 39.Qa7+. The final position is undoubtedly winning but this is not as clear as the b5/Qb7+ line. Maybe someone can find a shortcut for white.

38. Qb6 Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40. Qf7

<40. Rf7 Kg5 (40...Qh8 41. Qxa6 Qxd4 42. Qf1 Qe5+ 43. Qf4+ Qxf4+ (43...g5 44. Qxe5 dxe5 45. b5) 44. Rxf4 Re1 45. b5) 41. b5 axb5 42. Rf3 Kh6 43. a6 Re8 44. Qf7 Qe6 45. Qb7 Re7 46. Qxb5 Ra7 47. Rf8 Qe7 48. Rh8+ Kg7 49. Rb8 Qe3 50. Rb7+ Rxb7 51. Qxb7+ Kh6 52. Qf7 Qxd4 53. Qf8+>

40... Qe8

<40...h4 41. b5 41. Rf4 g5 42. Rf5 Rg6 43. b5 Qg8 (43...axb5 44. a6 Qg8 45. Qe7 Re6 46. Rf6+ Rxf6 47. Qxf6+) (43...Qh8 44. bxa6) 44. Qe7) 41...axb5 42. a6 Qe8 43. Qf4+ g5 44. Qf5 Re7 45. Qf6+ Kh7 46. Qxg5 Rg7 47. Qxh4+ Kg8 48. Rg3 Qf7 49. Rxg7+ Kxg7 50. Qg3+ Kh7 51. Qxd6>

41. Qb7 Qh8

<41...Re3 42. Rf1 Re2 (42...Qe4 43. Qxa6 Re2 44. Rg1 Qf4+ 45. Kh1 Ra2 46. Qa8 Qxd4 47. Qf8+ Qg7 48. Qf4+ Kh7 49. Qxd6) 43. Qxa6 Qe4 44. Rg1 Rb2 45. Qxd6 Qxd4 46. Qf8+ Kg5 47. a6 Ra2 48. Qe7+ Kh6 49. Rf1 Rxa6 50. Rf7 Qh8 51. b5 Qb8+ 52. g3 Ra2+ 53. Kh1 Ra1+ 54. Kg2>

42. Qxd5

<42. Qxa6 Qxd4 43. Qf1 Re4 44. Qc1+ Kg7 45. Qg5 Re1 46. Qf4 Qxf4+ 47. Rxf4 Ra1>

42...Rf6 43. Rxf6

<43. h4 Rxf3 44. gxf3 Qe8 45. Qe4 Qb8 46. d5 Qc7 47. Qd4 Kh7 48. b5 axb5 (48...Qxa5 49. Qa7+ Kh6 50. bxa6 Qd2+ 51. Kh3 Qe2 52. Kg3 Qe5+ 53. Kf2 Qh2+ 54. Kf1 Qh1+ 55. Ke2 Qxh4 56. Qe3+ Kh7 57. a7) 49. a6>

43...Qxf6 44. Qe4 Qd8

<44... d5 45. Qe5 Qc6 46. Qh8+ Kg5 47. h4+ Kxh4 48. Qd8+ Kg4 49. Qb6 Qe8 50. Qxa6 Qb8+ 51. Kg1 Kg5 (51...Qxb4 52. Qxg6+ Kf4 53. Qf6+ Ke3 54. Qf3+ Kd2 55. Qxd5) 52. Qe6 Qxb4 53. Qxd5+ Kh6 54. Qd8>

45. d5 Qf8 46. b5 axb5 47. a6 Qf7 48. Qd4

Dec-26-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: He staggers to the end of life's stage, the weight of The World's need for soul on his bowed shoulders. The World roars for one last encore, one more chance to scream in delight at the epitome of human passion. He sweats, he shrugs his shoulders, his handlers rush to grab his cape. OwwwwwwwwwWWWWWWWWWWwwwwwwwww, who wouldn't kill to be the person that grabbed that cape just one time! The World screams, "Come back, we need you JAMES!" But unlike every other performance, this one ends. His fans are stunned. They need the cape. They need the encore. They need the soul. But the Godfather of Soul has left the stage, and there are no more encores. We feel bad. We don't got you.
Dec-26-06  twinlark: You miss him too, huh?
Dec-27-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Who else could have a cooler cape than Elvis?
Dec-28-06  myschkin: <SantaChessFan> congrats for giving poor people the chance to participate on a par with others. Give a hug to your anonymous "soulmate" (? in German it makes sense, hope it fits in here) aswell ;) See you in 2007 and take care.
Well done!
Dec-28-06  sitzkrieg: Do not think that i am sollicitating for a free membership;I just wanted to wish u a happy newyear! all the best in it,
stz
Dec-29-06  twinlark: <Ohio> <FWIW, I think Qa7+ isn't a good idea. I sort of sense most the best analysts agree, although they've been mostly quiet the last few days. >

I agree, I think this variation is basically played out enough to abandon it in favour of 39.b5. It's a tantalising line, as whenever you think you're getting close, the definite win remains just beyond one's grasp.

No such uncertainty with Rook Variation Numero Uno.

Dec-31-06  twinlark: Greetings from 2007, <Ohio> old mate. May yours be bigger and better than 2006.
Dec-31-06  twinlark: Maybe the <37...Qe8 38.Qb6 Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40.Qf7> variation is not yet fully played out.

<Boomie> and <dalbertz> (the latter on Eyal>'s forum) have some lines involving 42.Qxd5 that very likely prevail. The question is whether they do as well as Rook Ending Number One.

The variations with 42.Qxa6 are not worth pursuing.

Dec-31-06  twinlark: <Boomie> I've been running the line you posted in your last post, and there's no obvious win, notwithstanding that the calculator rates it at nearly +4. The pawn gets to a7, but there doesn't seem to be an obvious and quick way of queening the little beastie without allowing a perpetual.

The Queen ending may be won, but it looks like a long and tedious one.

I think a better line would be to retain the Rooks after 42...Rf6 with 43.Rb3

Dec-31-06  twinlark: <Tabanus>

I've spent the last few hours condensing the analyses and discussions from <Eyal>'s forum that you referred to in your slightly angry post on the main thread. Copying all the posts would have been too confusing, so I've attempted to distill the analyses of <Dalbertz>, his discussions with <RookFile> and a few other contributions by others (eg: from <Boomie>) along the way, shorn of dead ends, typos etc.

Hopefully, the following faithfully represents the analyses you thought should be included on this forum:

37. Qd8 Qe8 38. Qb6 Qc8 39. Qa7+ Kh6 40. Qf7 Qe8 41.Qb7:

<A>. 41...Re3 42.Rf1 Re2 43.Qxa6 Qe4 44.Rg1 Rb2 45.Qxd6 Qxd4 46.Qf8+ Kg5 47.a6 Ra2 48.Qe7+ Kh6 49.Rf1 (49.b5 also wins, because black doesn't have a perpetual by Rxg2+ any more (the queen on e7 defends from further checks))

The continuation might be:

49...Rxa6 50.Rf7 Qh8 51. b5 Qb8+ 52. g3 Ra2+ (looks like draw at first, but isn't) 53. Kh1 Ra1+ 54. Kg2

and then:

1. (9.53): 54...Rg1+ 55.Kxg1 Qxg3+ 56.Kf1 Qxh3+ 57.Kf2 Qh2+ 58.Ke3 Qg1+ 59.Kd3 Qb1+ 60.Kd4 Qb2+ 61.Kc5 Qa3+ 62.Kxd5 Qd3+

2. (11.69): 54...Ra2+ 55.Kf3 Qg8 56.Qe3+ g5 57.Rf6+ Qg6 58.Rxg6+ Kxg6 59.Qe6+ Kh7

3. (16.32): 54...Qg8 55.Qe3+ g5 56.Rf6+ Qg6 57.Rxg6+ Kxg6 58.Qe6+ Kg7 59.Qe5+ Kg6 60.Qxa1 g4 61.Qd4 gxh3+ 62.Kxh3 Kf7

4. (#4): 54...Qxg3+ 55.Kxg3 Rg1+ 56.Kh2 Rh1+ 57.Kxh1 g5 58.Qf6#

<B>. 41...Qh8 42.Qxd5 Rf6 43.h4 Rxf3 44.gxf3 Qe8 45.Qe4 Qb8 46.d5 Qc7 47.Qd4 Kh7 48.b5:

<B1> 48...axb5 49.a6

<B2> 48...Qxa5 49. Qa7+ Kh6 50. bxa6 Qd2+ 51. Kh3 Qe2 52. Kg3 Qe5+ 53. Kf2 Qh2+ 54. Kf1 Qh1+ 55. Ke2 Qxh4 56. Qe3+ Kh7 57. a7

******

I'd make the comment that Black's chances probably lie with variation <B>, as I'm not sure the win has been fully demonstrated in these lines.

Dec-31-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <twinlark> Hic, excellent! Sorry for the inconvenience. I was not thinking of you or any other person, just a feeling that something unnecessary had happened on the main page. I'll post some additional stuff here tomorrow. G'night ¤¤
Dec-31-06  twinlark:

No worries, Tab, it was simply an oversight on everyone's part, noting more.

I had to redeem my feelings of some minor guilt, not so much for missing this analysis, as for dismissing the entire 40.Qf7 line on the basis of exhausting the 42.Qxa6 Qh8 variations.

If the Qxa6 variations get somewhere, they do so a lot slower than Rook Variation Number One.

G'night.

Jan-01-07
Premium Chessgames Member
  Open Defence: <Ohio> Don't be cruel... Shake Rattle and Roll... may this year be full of Tuti Fruity..
Jan-01-07
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <twinlark> I long thought 41...Qh8 was best, but 42.Qxd5 Rf6 43.b5!

Rybka 2.2 analysis of 38...Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 <40.Qf7> Qe8 41.Qb7 Re3 42.Rf1 Qe4 43.Qxa6 Re2 44.Rg1 Qf4+ (else Qxd6) 45.Kh1 (24-ply):

(2.45) 45...Rb2 46.Qa8 Kg7 47.Qb8 Rb3 48.Qc7+ Qf7 49.Qxd6

(3.10) 45...Rc2 46.Qd3 Rd2 47.Qc3 g5 48.b5

There is no point in 42...Re2 43.Qxa6 Qe4, which just transposes. <dalbertz> and <Boomie> have taken this line further (to a win).

Previously we have seen 25-ply (2.50) 42...Rb3 43.Qc7 h4 44.Rf7 Re3. Another try is 42...Qb5 43.Qf7 Qe8 (forced) 44.Qf4+ Kg7 (Kh7 is worse) 45.Qxd6 Re6 (Re7 does not help) 46.Qxd5 (24-ply):

(2.08) 46...Qb8+ 47.Kg1 Re7; (2.17) 46...h4; (2.20) 46...Kh6

where black is two pawns down without counterplay.

Finally 41...Qh8 42.Qxd5 Rf6 43.b5 (24-ply):

(3.97) 43...Rxf3 44.Qxf3 Qxd4 45.Qf8+ Kh7 46.Qf7+ Kh8 47.bxa6

so black could try 42...Qc8 43.Rf7 (23-ply):

(2.80) 43...h4 44.Rf4 Kg7 45.b5 axb5 46.a6 Re7

or 42...Qe8 43.b5 axb5 44.a6 Re7 45.Rf6 (23-ply):

(2.82) 45...Qb8 46.h4 Rg7 47.g4 hxg4 48.Qg5+ Kh7 49.h5

Black improvements? I could not find any. Black's best line seems to be the top line in <RV>'s Section C1: [38...Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6] 29-ply (1.97) 40.Qf7 Qe8 41.Qb7 Re3 42.Rf1 Qb5 43.Qf7 Qe8 44.Qf4+

Jan-01-07
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: Ohoi Ohio - Happy New Year! And don't you step on my blue Swede shoes! Hic!

Can you wake up skylark, please?

Jan-01-07  twinlark: Aahh...me old mate OsloChessFan. I saw your analysis and I'll be back later after skylarking around the countryside (have to be AFK for a while).
Jan-01-07  RandomVisitor: After 38...Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40.Qf7 Qe8:

(32-ply) Rybka2.2n2 analysis
1. (2.23): 41.Qb7 Re3 42.Rf6 Qe4 43.Qf7 Re2 44.Qf8+ Kg5 45.Rf2 Rxf2 46.Qxf2 Qe7 47.Qf3

For wat it's worth, here is the latest Rybka analysis on this line.

Jan-02-07  twinlark: After 38...Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40.Qf7 Qe8 41.Qb7 Re3 42.Rf1 Qe4 43.Qxa6 Re2 44.Rg1 Qf4+ 45.Kh1 Rb2 46.Qa8 Kg7 47.Qb8, Black might try 47...Rxg2, but White can escape from the perpetual (note that 48.Kxg2; 48.Qxa7; and 48.Qxb7 fail to a perpetual):


click for larger view

48.Qc7+ Kh6 49.Rxg2 Qf1+ 50.Kh2 (50.Rg1 Qh3#) Qf4+ 51.Kg1 Qe3+ 52.Rf2 Qg3+ 53.Kf1 Qxh3+ 54.Ke1 Qe3+ 55.Re2 Qg1+ 56.Kd2 Qxd4+ 57.Kc2 Qxb4 58.Qc3 Qa4+ 59.Kb2 Qb5+ 60.Kc1


click for larger view

before the checks run out (60...Qxe2 Qd2+)

Jan-02-07  Boomie: <Tabanus et al: Finally 41...Qh8 42.Qxd5 Rf6 43.b5...Black improvements?> How about 43.axb5 44.Re3 Rf4 45.a6 Rxd4 46.Qf3 Ra4 47.Re6 Qd4 48.Qg3 Qf4 49.Rxg6+ Kh7 50.Rxd6 Qxg3+ 51.Kxg3? Yet another rook ending where black has the superior rook position. If there's a win it will be a long time coming.


click for larger view

Jan-02-07
Premium Chessgames Member
  Tabanus: <Boomie> 38...Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40.Qf7 Qe8 41.Qb7 Qh8 42.Qxd5 Rf6 43.b5 axb5 44.a6! No rook ending - 44...Rxf3 45.Qxf3 Qxd4 46.Qf8+ Kh7 (46...Kg5 a7! 47.Qxa7 h4+ mate in 3) 47.Qe7+ (18-ply):

(6.72) 47...Kg8 48.a7 Qf4+ 49.Kg1 Qc1+ 50.Kf2 Qf4+ (other moves does not help (?)) 51.Ke2 Qc4+ 52.Kf3 (52.Ke3 may be better) Qd5+ 53.Kg3 h4+ 54.Kh2 and black runs out of checks (?) - 54...Qa8 55.Qc7 Qd5 etc.

(6.96) 47...Kh6 48.a7 Qf4+ but black runs out of checks (?)

(7.72) 47...Kh8 48.a7 Qf4+ but black runs out of checks (?)

(10.19) 47...Qg7 48.Qxg7 Kxg7 49.a7 --> a8Q

Rather scary, I must admit. Black does run out of checks, no? On the other hand, 40.Rf7 avoids all this.

Jan-02-07  RandomVisitor: After 40.Qf7 Qe8 41.Qb7:
(28-ply)
1. (2.29): 41...Re3 42.Rf1 Qb5 43.Qf7 Qe8 44.Qxd5 Re6 45.Qc4 d5 46.Qxd5 h4 47.Qc5 Rc6 48.Qe5

2. (2.84): 41...Qh8 42.Qxd5 Qe8 43.b5 axb5 44.a6 Re7 45.Rf6 Qb8 46.h4 Rg7 47.g4 hxg4 48.Qg5+

3. (3.33): 41...g5 42.Qxa6 g4 43.Rg3 Qf8 44.hxg4 hxg4 45.Rxg4 Re4 46.Rxe4 dxe4 47.Qe2 d5 48.Qe3+

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