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OhioChessFan
Member since Apr-09-05 · Last seen Nov-10-25
______________ Moves Prediction Contest

<Main Focus>: Predicting how many moves in a game for each pairing.

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<Format>:

[player]-[player] [result] [# of MOVES]

==4 Different Scoring Methods==

Standard Moves Ranker (1st place-Over[3pts], 1st place-Under [7pts], Exact [10pts])

Bonus Ranker (3rd place-Over[1pts],2nd place-Over[2pts],3rd place-Under [5pts], 2nd place-Under [6pts]

Standard Moves/Bonus Ranker [Add all to together]

1st place Ranker [how many 1st place you have in Standard Moves Ranker]

For example:

<Note: Participants 3, 4, and 5 are predicated on nobody scoring an exact as Participant 2 did. If someone hits an exact, the closest score under and over will score the points for second place.>

Actual Game: [player]-[player] 0-1 45

Participant 1: [player]-[player] 1/2 45
Participant 2: [player]-[player] 0-1 45
Participant 3: [player]-[player] 0-1 44
Participant 4: [player]-[player] 0-1 43
Participant 5: [player]-[player] 0-1 46

Participant 1: No points even though 45 is correct. Results must be correct. If Result is wrong and moves # is correct...you get no points whatsoever

Participant 2: 10 pts rewarded for correct Result/moves #

Participant 3: 7 pts rewarded for closest under (1st-Under) to 45 moves

Participant 4: 6 pts rewarded for the 2nd closest under (2nd-Under) to 45 moves.

Participant 5: 3 pts rewarded closest OVER(1st-OVER) to 45 moves.

Again, the description of Participant 3, 4, and 5 are based on there being no exact prediction as made by Participant 2.

<IF> there is an exact or an under closest, the highest scoring over participant will be 2nd over. The second closest over will be 3rd over. The <ONLY> time there will be a first over is if there is no exact or under winner.

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rreusser/computing-with-the-bailey-borwein-plouffe-formula">https://observablehq.com/(at)rreusser/...

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   OhioChessFan has kibitzed 49344 times to chessgames   [more...]
   Nov-09-25 Chessgames - Music
 
OhioChessFan: 19 minutes of music so beautiful it will bring you to tears. Bach-Brandenberg Concerto 5 https://youtu.be/D1xaagpUGs4?si=1sQ...
 
   Nov-09-25 Fusilli chessforum
 
OhioChessFan: I found the source of a previous puzzle: https://youtu.be/3XkA2ZoVFQo?si=fGG...
 
   Nov-08-25 B Hague vs Plaskett, 2004 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: Morra, Hague Convention, I like it.
 
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OhioChessFan: <BREAKING: British veteran breaks down live on TV over state of the country: "Rows and rows of white tombs for what? A country of today? No, I'm sorry. The sacrifice wasn't worth the result. I fought for freedom, and it's darn-sight worse now than when I fought."> Poor ...
 
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   Nov-05-25 Niemann vs L Lodici, 2025 (replies)
 
OhioChessFan: White has three Pawns for a poorly placed Knight. I'd rather have the Knight, but as of move 29, I don't see any particular plans for
 
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   Nov-04-25 D Gukesh vs K Nogerbek, 2025
 
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Moves Prediction Contest

Kibitzer's Corner
< Earlier Kibitzing  · PAGE 35 OF 849 ·  Later Kibitzing>
Dec-20-06  capablancakarpov: Hiarcs 10 favorite line with Qf4:

37.Qf4 Qe8 38.b5 axb5 39.a6 Re7 40.Qf6+ Kh6 41.Qxd6 Qd7 42.Qxd7 Rxd7 43.Rb5 Ra7 44.Rxb5 Rxa6 45.Rxd5 h4, and white has an extra pawn, but this rook ending is a draw. Other lines that i checked seem to drive to similar drawing rook endgames.

Dec-21-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** This forum is now hosting the line **

C> 37.Qd8 Qe8 38.Qb6 Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40.Qf7 Qe8

Dec-21-06  Eyal: <Boomie>: 36...h5 37. Qd8 Qe8 38. Qb6 Qc8 39. Qa7+ Kh6 40. Qf7 Qe8 41. Qb7 Qh8 <41...Re3 42. Rf1 Re2 43. Qxa6 Qe4 44. Rg1 Rb2 45. Qxd6> 42. Qxd5 Rf6 43. h4 Rxf3 44. gxf3 Qe8 45. Qe4 Qb8 46. d5 Qc7 47. Qd4 Kh7 48. b5 axb5 <48...Qxa5 49. Qa7+ Kh6 50. bxa6 Qd2+ 51. Kh3 Qe2 52. Kg3 Qe5+ 53. Kf2 Qh2+ 54. Kf1 Qh1+ 55. Ke2 Qxh4 56. Qe3+ Kh7 57. a7> 49. a6

Dec-21-06  Eyal: <KnightLunatic>: For those who don't know about what position i'm talking about it is after: <37.Qd8 Qe8 38.Qb6 Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40.Qf7 Qe8 41.Qb7 Re3 42.Rf1 Re2 43.Qxa6 Qe4 44.Rg1 Rb2 45.Qxd6 Qxd4 46.Qf8+ Kg5 47.a6 Ra2> White to play:


click for larger view

And now not 48.Qd8+ Kh6 49.b5?? Rxg2! draw but of course 48.Qe7+ Kh6 49.Rf1!! that wins....

Dec-21-06  Eyal: <dalbertz: <Why does it win?>> The continuation might be:
49...Rxa6 50.Rf7 Qh8 51. b5 Qb8+ 52. g3 Ra2+ (looks like draw at first, but isn't) 53. Kh1 Ra1+ 54. Kg2 and then:
1. (9.53): 54...Rg1+ 55.Kxg1 Qxg3+ 56.Kf1 Qxh3+ 57.Kf2 Qh2+ 58.Ke3 Qg1+ 59.Kd3 Qb1+ 60.Kd4 Qb2+ 61.Kc5 Qa3+ 62.Kxd5 Qd3+

2. (11.69): 54...Ra2+ 55.Kf3 Qg8 56.Qe3+ g5 57.Rf6+ Qg6 58.Rxg6+ Kxg6 59.Qe6+ Kh7

3. (16.32): 54...Qg8 55.Qe3+ g5 56.Rf6+ Qg6 57.Rxg6+ Kxg6 58.Qe6+ Kg7 59.Qe5+ Kg6 60.Qxa1 g4 61.Qd4 gxh3+ 62.Kxh3 Kf7

4. (#4): 54...Qxg3+ 55.Kxg3 Rg1+ 56.Kh2 Rh1+ 57.Kxh1 g5 58.Qf6#

Dec-21-06  Eyal: <And now not 48.Qd8+ Kh6 49.b5?? Rxg2! draw but of course 48.Qe7! Kh6 49.Rf1!! that wins....> After 48.Qe7+ Kh6 49.b5 also wins, because black doesn't have a perpetual by Rxg2+ any more (the queen on e7 defends from further checks).
Dec-21-06  Eyal: <Boomie>: Here's where I'm at with 38. Qb6 Qc8 39. Qa7+. I'm sure it's not the last word so find improvements. Notice that white is never in danger of being "perpetualed". In fact black gets almost no checks in most lines. The maneuver d5/Qd4 is important in many variations. The queen rules the board from d4.

37. Qd8 Qe8 38. Qb6 Qc8 39. Qa7+ Kh6 40. Qf7 Qe8

<40...h4 41. b5 axb5 42. a6 Qe8 43. Qf4+ g5 44. Qf5>

41. Qb7 Qh8

<41...Re3 42. Rf1 Re2 43. Qxa6 Qe4 44. Rg1 Rb2 45. Qxd6 Qxd4 46. Qf8+ Kg5 47. a6 Ra2 48. Qe7+ Kh6 49. Rf1 Rxa6 50. Rf7 Qh8 51. b5 Qb8+ 52. g3 Ra2+ 53. Kh1 Ra1+ 54. Kg2>

42. Qxd5 Rf6 43. Rxf6

<43. h4 Rxf3 44. gxf3 Qe8 45. Qe4 Qb8 46. d5 Qc7 47. Qd4 Kh7 48. b5 axb5 (48...Qxa5 49. Qa7+ Kh6 50. bxa6 Qd2+ 51. Kh3 Qe2 52. Kg3 Qe5+ 53. Kf2 Qh2+ 54. Kf1 Qh1+ 55. Ke2 Qxh4 56. Qe3+ Kh7 57. a7) 49. a6>

43...Qxf6 44. Qe4 Qd8

<44...d5 45. Qe5 Qc6 46. Qh8+ Kg5 47. h4+ Kxh4 48. Qd8+ Kg4 49. Qb6 Qe8 50. Qxa6 Qb8+ 51. Kg1 Kg5 (51...Qxb4 52. Qxg6+ Kf4 53. Qf6+ Ke3 54. Qf3+ Kd2 55. Qxd5) 52. Qe6 Qxb4 53. Qxd5+ Kh6 54. Qd8>

45. d5 Qf8 46. b5 axb5 47. a6 Qf7 48. Qd4

Dec-21-06  sandmanbrig: Instead of 42 Qxd5 Eyal, I think I see promise is 42. Qxa6. I am not certain, but I think that is the way to go.
Dec-21-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: This forum is hosting proposed line
37.Qd8 Qe8 38.Qb6 Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40.Qf7
Dec-21-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: Please note:
After 37.Qd8 Qe8 38.Qb6 Qc8 39.Qa7+ Qh6 40.Qf7 h4:

Eyal's analysis by Fritz 10 (20-ply) shows that Black is dead in this line:

(5.70) 41. b5 axb5 42.a6 Qe8 43.Qf4+ g5 44.Qf5 Re7 45.Qf6+ Kh7 46.Qxg5 Rg7 47.Qxh4+ Kg8 48.Rg3 Qf7 49.Rxg7+ Kxg7 50.Qg3+ Kh7 51.Qxd6 Qa7

(5.23) 41.Rf4 g5 42.Rf5 Rg6 43.b5 axb5 44.a6 Qg8 45.Qe7 Re6 46.Rf6+ Rxf6 47.Qxf6+

Dec-22-06  mig55: 40.Qf7 Qe8 41.Qf4 Kg7 42.b5 axb5 43.a6 Re1 44.Qf6 Kh6 45.Ra3 b4 46.Rb3 Re6 47.Qf4 g5 48.Qf3 Qe7 and a win...
Dec-23-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: You, sir, a gentleman and a (chess) scholar! =)
Dec-23-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  JointheArmy: <OhioChessFan> You are a class act my friend. I enjoy your kindness very much.
Dec-23-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: ** Move Made**
Black has played 37...Qe8 as expected, and told us he'll take an extension after our 38th move. Clearly Qb6 and Qc7+ will be the frontrunners. I invite all input into the proposed line:

38.Qb6 Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40.Qf7

Dec-23-06  twinlark: Thanks <Ohio>

<Dom> Further to your post on my forum, I've been waiting until I've done a full slide on that line before I post my results, but I'll post what I have before then so you're not entirely reinventing the wheel. I've applied a deep move by move slide at all critical moves, each of which I've tested to 20 or 21 ply and, and each of which has emerged as a clear winner in each case. I'm up to:

38.Qb6 Qc8 39.Qa7+ Kh6 40.Qf7 Qe8 41.Qb7 Qh8 42.Qxa6 Qxd4 43.Qf1 Re4 (43...Qxb4 goes down in a shower of shytte after 44.Qc1 g5 and Black ends up getting monstered on the King side behind his lines) 44.Qc1+ Kg7 and now:


click for larger view

Analysis by Shredder 10 (20 ply):

(2.96): 45.Qg5 Re1 46.Qf4 Qxf4+ 47.Rxf4 Ra1 48.Kg3 Ra2 49.Kf3 Ra3+ 50.Kf2


click for larger view

The net result is a rook-pawn ending with two connected queenside passers vs the lame easily contained isolani passers on the d-file and some nuisance checks from the rook.

(2.34): 45.Qc7+ Kh6 46.Qxd6 Qxb4 47.Qxd5 Rf4 48.Rb3 Qe1 49.Rb8 Qc3 is the only other viable alternative, the rest dissipate White's advantage.

Dec-24-06  syracrophy: <OhioChessFan> Hi! Merry Christmas! There's a little doubt I have: what act of kindness, about you, is <chessgames.com> talking about? Thanks in advance and sorry for the curiosity
Dec-24-06  chessmoron: <syracrophy> Is it pretty obvious that <OhioChessFan> is spending $275 on 11 premium memberships and is giving them away for 11 random non-premium kibitzers.
Dec-24-06  mig55: 37.Qd8 Qe8 38.Qb6 Qc8 39.Qa7 Kh6 40.Qf7 Qe8 41.Qb7 Qh8 42.Qxd5 Rf6 43.h4 Rxf3 44. gxf3....??
Dec-24-06  twinlark: <mig55> 44...Qe8
Dec-24-06  Thorsson: <twinlark: Analysis by Shredder 10 (20 ply):

(2.96): 45.Qg5 Re1 46.Qf4 Qxf4+ 47.Rxf4 Ra1 48.Kg3 Ra2 49.Kf3 Ra3+ 50.Kf2>

It seems to me that it takes longer to reach a winning ending compared to the 41.Qb7+ line.

Here 48...Ra3+ 49.Kf2 Ra4 50.h4 g5 51.hxg5 Kg6 leaves White with still a few problems to solve.

Dec-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  OhioChessFan: <Syracrophy> It's really strange seeing everyone making a big fuss. Last year <RolandTesh> gave away 20 memberships and I added 7. I had asked Chessgames to let me remain anonymous. <RT> decided to let everyone know I'd done it after a bunch of people asked about it. So this year I didn't bother to ask Chessgames to let me remain anonymous, since I figured people would know. I admit to being a touch embarrassed at seeing people raving about how wonderful I am and how they'll name their firstborn after me, and let me pick the next 3 moves in the GMAN game. Anyway, I bought 10 memberships and Chessgames added one free one. That's what they are giving away. I would encourage anyone and everyone to join me and donate a few more into the mix.
Dec-24-06
Premium Chessgames Member
  WannaBe: <OhioChessFan: ... I would encourage anyone and everyone to join me...>

Not this year, didn't plan ahead enough, but will do so next year. (But maybe just 2 or 3 memberships at that.)

You're still the man! Buy you a few beers if we ever meet. =)

Dec-24-06  syracrophy: <OhiChessFan> Well, maybe you were already known for making those kind of acts last year, but since I didn't knew it, it's something astonishing. Thank you very much. Generosity is something difficult to find in the people nowadays. I think we all should learn to do acts like yours

<<♔ MERRY CHRISTMAS ♔>>

Dec-24-06  twinlark: <Thorsson> Agreed. It wins, but much more slowly.

Dec-24-06  twinlark: Cheers, Ohio. Well done, mate.
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